News: Updated FIFA Rankings (September 2018) - US MNT #22

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by skim172, Sep 20, 2018.

  1. skim172

    skim172 Member+

    Feb 20, 2013
    We did it, boys. We're in the Top 25 of the world. ;)

    https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html

    For the first time in the history of FIFA rankings, two teams are tied for #1, with Belgium and France both on 1729 points (though France is actually fractionally higher, they rounded down the decimals).

    Brazil is #3, Croatia is #4. Uruguay is #5, England at #6. Portugal, Switzerland, Spain, and Denmark round out the Top 10.

    Mexico slips into #15, having gained a spot.

    USA is #22 - which is where we were before. Missing out on the World Cup somehow didn't affect our ranking - we actually gained points under the new rankings formula. Chile (#12), Netherlands (#17), Wales (#19), and Italy (#20) were also unaffected by their enormous failures - in fact, Italy actually went up one spot from 21 to 20.

    The new FIFA rankings formula is supposed to more closely mirror ELO rankings, after the old system was criticized for being unfair and particularly favoring nations in Europe and South America.

    At #22, the US MNT is superior to every African nation (Tunisia best at #23) and every Asian nation (Iran at #33).

    For making the World Cup, qualifying to knockout stage, and an all-round good performance, Japan is rewarded by moving up 1 spot, to #54.

    Meanwhile, Germany, for failing to qualify for the knockout stage, is punished by moving up 3 spots, to #12.

    Ukraine is the top riser, climbing up 6 spots to #29 - presumably a reward for not making the World Cup. Bosnia & Herzegovina also soared, climbing 5 spots to #34 - presumably for also not making the World Cup. In fact, European nations in general seem to have mostly risen in rank this time - Scotland +1 to #39, Bulgaria +3 to #44, Hungary +2, Norway +1, Albania +1, Finland +4, Macedonia +2, Cyprus +1, Georgia +3 ...

    It's almost like this new rankings formula benefits Europe tremendously - possibly because of the extra weight it places on Nations League matches.

    But of course, this new rankings formula was intended to remove continental biases, so that can't be it. I'm sure Luxembourg deserves to rise +3 ranks to #82, thereby making Luxembourg a greater soccer power than the majority of the world. Sure, Luxembourg's ELO ranking is actually #112, but surely that can't be right. Why, those silly ELO rankings claim that New Zealand should be #81, and not #119, as it is in the FIFA rankings. Everyone knows Luxembourg vs New Zealand would be a complete no contest for the Luxembourgoisie.

    And I'm sure it's coincidence that CAF - which plays the fewest qualifiers and has no Nations League setup - suffered drops for a large number of their members. Ghana is the biggest loser, dropping 6 ranks and tumbling to #51. But what would you expect, what with their failing to qualify to the World Cup? It would be ludicrous - ludicrous - to fail to qualify for the World Cup and then increase in rank ... if you're not Italy. :rolleyes:
     
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  2. FC Tallavana

    FC Tallavana Member+

    Jul 1, 2004
    La Quinta
    Fail to see how Wales not qualifying is considered an enormous failure.
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The first FIFA Rankings after the World Cup were in August. Changes from August to September were not because of the World Cup.
     
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  4. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yep, and a lot of the current ranking is still based on the old system. It will take time for the new system to work.
     
  5. TOAzer

    TOAzer Member+

    The Man With No Club
    May 29, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rankings are rank.
     
  6. manfromgallifrey91

    Swansea City
    United States
    Jul 24, 2015
    Wyoming, USA
    Club:
    Southampton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  7. Caulfield

    Caulfield Member

    May 31, 2004
    Club:
    Atlanta
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No offense, but I’m not sure I’ve ever read something I care less about that FIFA rankings.
     
  8. 10 Donovans

    10 Donovans Member

    LAFC
    United States
    Aug 11, 2018
    Los Angeles
    It's ELO with some flavoring. https://resources.fifa.com/image/up...orld-ranking.pdf?cloudid=iklxmt2jejtjwf8qecba

    >If you make it to the knockout round of a tournament, then you cannot lose points for the rest of the tournament.
    >If you lose a penalty shootout it is treated as a draw.
    >If you win a penalty shootout it is considered half a win.
    >there's a large scaling factor to point loss in the World Cup group stage.
     
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  9. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It’s strange that you are in this thread.
     
  10. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    To be fair........................if you somehow are capable of taking emotion out of it, and just look at results like a robot would, the USMNT has had good results since the start of calendar year 2017.

    We are actually the 2017 Gold Cup Champions (beating Costa Rica and Jamaica in the semi and final).

    Since the start of 2017 we've only lost 4 games. And we've slobberknockered some of the more highly ranked CONCACAF Teams. 4-0 over Panama, 6-0 over Honduras in WCQers. We've played Mexico twice over that period. 1 win 1 draw. [Draw at the Azteca.] We drew with Portugal. We drew with France. We beat Ghana. We drew with Serbia and Bosnia. The list keeps going.

    So if one is actually capable of taking emotion out of it, they'd realize we've had one bad loss from a rankings perspective in the past 2 years. WCQer against T&T, and even that was on the road. And of course, cancelled out by the fact that we beat them at home in a WCQer. I

    All I'm saying is that it shouldn't be a surprise that a ranking has held steady.......................

    And I actually think its fairly accurate. There are those that have greatly exaggerated the demise of our program and player pool.............as it relates to the rest of the world.
     
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  11. skim172

    skim172 Member+

    Feb 20, 2013
    Well, since it was pointed out to me that these rankings don't reflect the World Cup, I've changed my view on that. I do think #22 is still a little high - considering Honduras and Panama are in the 60s and 70s and they represent our most significant victories in meaningful matches.

    I still find it extremely suspect that over half the European sides got a boost in the latest rankings - my guess is that it's because Nations League games are weighted more heavily than friendlies. So Finland eeks out 1-0 victories over Hungary and Estonia, and that vaults them up 4 ranks. Bosnia scores wins against highly-overrated Northern Ireland (#28) and they shoot up 5 spots, while Northern Ireland drops one.
     
  12. 10 Donovans

    10 Donovans Member

    LAFC
    United States
    Aug 11, 2018
    Los Angeles
    Well World Cup matches are included. The prior ranking system put everything into the World Cup and the impact slowly depreciated over the next four years.
    People didn't like the rankings because it doesn't make sense for a performance two years prior to be holding a team up (if they were slumping) or holding a team down (picture Canada now, prior FIFA ranking would give them little mobility).

    Also some teams would game rankings by not playing friendlies and put everything into World Cup Qualifiers.
    I think it's expected, I think FIFA wants to incentivize playing quality teams in their windows and prevent the international game from falling further into the shadow of the UEFA champions league.

    For some comparison: https://www.eloratings.net/ no ranking system can be perfect. Notice that Germany is 5. After their recent performance, should they be there?

    FIFA rankings have them in 12, as I stated prior group stage losses have large weight. Are they still one of the best teams in the world? Are Germany somewhere between 5th and 12th? Absolutely.

    The U.S. has floated around 25th for about a decade straight and it probably won't change until after the U.S. gets some CONCACAF Nations League games under their belt. When the 20 and under starlets are more seasoned we will probably move up to be similar to Mexico.
     
  13. 10 Donovans

    10 Donovans Member

    LAFC
    United States
    Aug 11, 2018
    Los Angeles
    Although, I don't like how FIFA is preventing point loss in knockout rounds of tournaments. Over time this could create distortions in rankings that don't make sense. It would be better if Knockout round matches mattered with a smaller scaling factor.

    > I: importance of match (as FIFA has it, with knockout losses not penalizing score)

    I= 05 Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows
    I= 10 Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows
    I= 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions
    I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions
    I= 25 Qualification matches for Confederations final competitions and for FIFA World Cup final competitions
    I= 35 Confederation final competition matches up until the QF stage
    I= 40 Confederation final competition matches from the QF stage onwards; all FIFA Confederations Cup matches
    I= 50 FIFA World Cup final competition matches up until QF stage
    I= 60 FIFA World Cup final competition matches from QF stage onwards


    > I: importance of match (probably how it should be, knockout round losses would count)

    I= 02 Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows
    I= 06 Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows
    I= 10 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions, qualification matches for Confederations final competitions, and qualification for FIFA World Cup final competitions
    I= 15 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions, all FIFA Confederations Cup matches, and all FIFA World Cup final competition
     
  14. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes. What I said that may have confused people was that this was not the first month with World Cup 2018 included, so changes from August to September were not because of World Cup 2018 games. The first post was talking about World Cup 2018 results, so that's why I specified.
     
  15. Caulfield

    Caulfield Member

    May 31, 2004
    Club:
    Atlanta
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well someone has to add levity to the matter.
     
  16. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #16 papermache16, Jun 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2021
    Update after Nations League win:

    http://football-ranking.com/ranks

    USA is #17th (up from #20) after their win over Mexico.

    1. Belgium
    2. France
    3. Brazil
    4. England
    5. Portugal
    6. Spain
    7. Italy
    8. Argentina
    9. Uruguay
    10. Denmark
    11. Mexico
    12. Colombia
    13. Germany
    14. Switzerland
    15. Croatia
    16. Netherlands
    17. United States
    18. Sweden
    19. Chile
    20. Wales

    If we subscribe to the theory that FIFA Rankings affect Pots 1-4, we want to be in the top 15 to get into Pot 2 (since Qatar is in Pot 1 and pushes everyone down). You will then hope for some teams above the US to drop, or be eliminated altogether from qualifying. Let's look at CONMEBOL and UEFA.

    CONMEBOL:

    Early days, but Uruguay is in the playoff spot, with Colombia and Chile currently on the outside looking in. Ecuador and Paraguay are currently in the qualification spots after about 5/18 of matchdays played. If you are interested in a Pot 2 for the US you hope for one or maybe even two of Uruguay, Colombia, and Chile to miss out on qualification.

    UEFA:

    Denmark continues to be underrated, and in a weak qualifying group (Scotland and Austria the other threats in that group) I don't see them missing out. Germany had a shock home loss to Macedonia so keep an eye on them - another one of these types of results and they run the risk of having to go through the crapshoot of a playoff (ask Italy how much of a sure thing that is). Switzerland will likely go through to a playoff as Italy is in their group (can you believe Italy hasn't made it to the round of 16 in the WC since 2006???) Croatia is in a dogfight with Russia and Slovakia, while Slovenia was the team to defeat the 2018 World Cup Finalists. Netherlands were dominated by Turkey - another setback could see them destined for the playoffs. I don't see Wales qualifying with their aging group, though they did beat the Czech Republic.

    AND US...

    we still are yet to see how seriously the Gold Cup will be taken. The main core will rest, yes, but will Gregg use this as a time to experiment with youth? Or go with the veterans (Zardes, Arriola, etc) even if that probably isn't the best strategy to win? B squads or not, Gold Cup victories are a lot of points.

    It will also be interesting to see what happens with the bad results from last cycle drop off, and if that propels the US higher relative to the other squads.
     
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  17. largegarlic

    largegarlic Member+

    Jul 2, 2007
    Does FIFA ranking matter for Pot 2, though? I didn't pay attention to how the seeding worked in 2018 for obvious reasons, but I thought prior to that, the top 8 in the rankings got #1 seeds and were placed in separate groups while the rest of the pots were determined by geography.
     
  18. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It did matter in 2018. That's why it also contributed to some pretty even groups with no discernable Group of Death.
     
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  19. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    Not FIFA related, but today's win -- as uninspiring as it was -- moves the US to its highest Elo ranking in over 5 years: 19th in the world.

    The last time we were ranked that high was after our win against Ecuador in the 2016 Copa America. From there we began a steady descent that took us all the way down to 43rd in the world in October of 2019 after our Nations League loss to Canada, our lowest ranking since the mid 90's. Subsequent wins against Canada and Mexico provided big point swings in the other direction that have helped us climb back up the rankings again.
     
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  20. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Also put in reverse...................that was a big lost opportunity for Canada from a rankings perspective. They had a great chance to beat a top 25 team tonight, and just didn't pull it out.
     
  21. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Top 20 bodes well for reformed EPL work permit purposes , correct? Hopefully a door just cracked ope.
     
  22. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    #22 KALM, Jul 18, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2021
    Yep, though I think that door cracked open a month or so back. Right now USMNT players need to have appeared in 40 percent of available A team matches over the relevant time frame (1 or 2 years depending on whether the player is under 21) to qualify for a work permit automatically. If the USMNT falls out of the top 20 (which could happen by the end of this tournament, depending on results), that number jumps to 60 percent of available A team matches.
     
  23. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hell yeah, Jackson yueill and Jonathan Lewis to Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday. Ipswich, Charlton, or Bolton confirmed :p
     
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  24. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    USA back in 17th after their win against Canada.

    http://football-ranking.com/ranks (careful, website might be janky).

    A win over Jamaica/Costa Rica will be good enough to propel us into 16th (past Sweden). A finals run could get us past Germany and Colombia into 14th. Good thing about knockout runs in tournaments, you don't lose points for a loss.

    People are saying things like - "Germany? They play in UEFA, they have tough teams to play which will help their ranking!"

    Well, about that.

    United States have 14 qualifiers to play, Germany only have 7 more. They could have two more in the playoffs, but that would mean they drop more points to finish in 2nd in their group- again, lower rankings for them. (For the record, they are currently 3rd in their group.)

    Secondly, Germany don't really have a highly ranked group - Armenia, Macedonia, Romania, Iceland, Liechtenstein. Of those teams, only Romania ranks in the top 50. (Mexico, Costa Rica, and Jamaica all rank in the top 50).

    Anyway, I'm still sticking with my prediction of the US making it to the finals - again, the teams they face will influence just how many points they win - but I can see them making it into the top 15 if they win two more games.

    I believe the joke 12 years ago was Bornstein to Torquay United.
     
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  25. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Update, USA to 16th after beating Jamaica. If we beat Qatar, we leapfrog Germany, Colombia, and Switzerland into 13th.

    http://football-ranking.com/ranks (warning: website is cancer on your cell phone).
     
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