United vs. TFC -Saturday, June 6

Discussion in 'D.C. United' started by stangspritzring, Jun 5, 2015.

  1. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Speaking of games, Saturday brings us the match against The Fscking Canadians.

    When: Saturday, 6 June, 7PM
    Where: Raccoon Freedom Kaverns
    Why: Their fresh, cold, mapley Canadian blood provides us sustenance for matches to come.
    Critter:
    [​IMG]


    I tried finding one on a grill, but it wasn't so apparently a moose, which is disappointing. They look delish.

    ANYHOW, crush the Canuckistanis!
     
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  2. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have a sure-fire strategy that will get Toronto to forfeit the match: simply build one of these across the street from RFK:
    [​IMG]
    . . .and they'll be too distracted to show up for the match!
     
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  3. nobletea

    nobletea Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 29, 2004
    HarCo
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's fun to beat Canadians.
     
  4. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    TFC players are apparently very polite. We have two players on CautionWatch (Arnaud and Boswell), who have 1 and 2 matches to go card free for "good behaviour." The Canuckistanis have none. According to the stats on the MLS site, United concedes 0.8 goals/game at home while Toronto concedes 1.5/game away. Therefore I see us winning 3-1.6.
     
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  5. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Need to do a Bayesian average that factors in both concession rate and scoring rate! Hop to it!
     
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  6. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure! Let me just...[​IMG]
     
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  7. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Toronto projects their starting 11:
    [​IMG]

    United's website still has the last match highlights as their lead. So, you know, it'll be a surprise.
     
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  8. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As an aside, those Canadian players should really get out of the sun.
     
  9. Aconti2

    Aconti2 Member

    Apr 10, 2011
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Bringing some band students and families out to this one, hope its a good one! Give those schools a cheer if you hear them announced at halftime. :)
     
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  10. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's what you want:

    A = Toronto goals scored/game on the road
    B = DCU goals conceded/game at home

    C = Toronto goals conceded/game on the road
    D = DCU goals scored/game at home

    X = number of road games TFC has played
    Y = number of home games DCU has played

    Predicted Toronto goals scored = A*X/(X+Y) + B*Y/(X+Y)
    Predicted DCU goals scored = C*X/(X+Y) + D*Y/(X+Y)

    The idea is that to predict Toronto's goals, both their rate of scoring on the road, and our rate of conceding at home, matter. Which matters more? Unknown, but one reasonable thing to do is to weight each by the number of such games played (because a rate that's been established over a lot of games is more reliable than one that's been established over just a few).
     
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  11. John L

    John L Member+

    Sep 20, 2003
    Alexandria, VA
    Bradley's in Amsterdam for todays game, USMNT vs Netherlands. Even though he's a leader for the US team, I've always thought he's under-performed (or just doesn't have the players around him) in Toronto.

    Am I right? Will they actually play a bit better without him?
     
  12. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dang it, if I'd known there was gonna be homework....
     
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  13. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Could this be the day where the stars align and we actually see Ben's A team for one brief blink of an eye?

    ---------------------------------Hamid
    Franklin------------Boswell---------------Opare-----------Kemp
    De Leon------------Halsti---------------Kitchen------------Rolfe
    ---------------------Arrieta--------------Espindola

    Not sure if that's actually Ben's A team … but it probably should be.
     
  14. DecadeOfDCU26

    DecadeOfDCU26 Member+

    May 2, 2007
    DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    3 more points are crucial here. we have 7 home and 11 away after this match. RFK is a fortress for the second straight year, and 3rd out of 4. We should expect nothing less, against a depleted TFC side.

    Also I am bringing a first timer with me, so we should play well out of respect.
     
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  15. DangSkippy

    DangSkippy Member+

    Apr 28, 2009
    MoCo Maryland
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Iono. I really liked Silva and Espindola together last year. Your line-up makes some sense, but I would like to try to work Silva in there somewhere.

    Also, I thought Halsti was gone for Finland this weekend?
     
  16. DecadeOfDCU26

    DecadeOfDCU26 Member+

    May 2, 2007
    DC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He is available for this match, but out for the match in Orlando.
     
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  17. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    I rarely feel confident about United. I still don't.
     
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  18. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that's close. You could argue Pontius or Silva for Arreita and possibly Birnbaum or Korb for Kemp. That would be more situation and tactical depending on who was lining up on the right side.
    But, that'd be pretty close to the best team.

    But can we talk about how poor Franklin has been this season? I thought he was quite good last season, but he's a new area of concern for me this year. He hasn't been atrocious every game, but he has been below his standard. And for the price, he hasn't been worth it this year.
     
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  19. itwasi

    itwasi Member+

    May 9, 2008
    I don't know
    Club:
    DC United
    A=1.5
    B=.78
    C=1.5
    D=1.67
    X=8
    Y=9

    Predicted Toronto goals scored = 1.12
    Predicted DCU goals scored = 1.59

    The ball is round; so we should round. DC 2-1 win.
     
  20. nobletea

    nobletea Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 29, 2004
    HarCo
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That is so HOT. You should do webcams on the side.
     
  21. stangspritzring

    stangspritzring Member+

    Apr 3, 2006
    NorMD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nope, I'm sticking with decimals, because you never know with these refs.

    Also, if we win via a 2-1 scoreline, I may soil myself and begrudgingly pick up a book on the maths again.
     
  22. DangSkippy

    DangSkippy Member+

    Apr 28, 2009
    MoCo Maryland
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Both these things are only true in aggregate.
     
  23. Bootsy Collins

    Bootsy Collins Player of the Year

    Oct 18, 2004
    Capitol Hill
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Now the next step: a Bayesian estimate of the *uncertainty* in each of these numbers! :)
     
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  24. itwasi

    itwasi Member+

    May 9, 2008
    I don't know
    Club:
    DC United
    Uncertainly in my math ability? Because here's my Bayes Factor = ******** You. :D
     
  25. fatbastard

    fatbastard Member+

    Aug 1, 2003
    Lincoln (ish), Va
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If it ends 2-1, the uncertainty is 0; if it doesn't, it's 100% :)
     
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