UNC Tar Heels 2016

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by uncchamps2012, Nov 21, 2015.

  1. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    Well, 20015 ended earlier than usual, so we can get a head start on 2016!
    Would we expect McFarland, Bailey, Castelberry, and Boyles to recover in time to contribute?
    What do the freshmen look like?
     
  2. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    I'll take a crack at your questions. I think that, barring unexpected complications, all of the injuries should be healed by next fall. The freshman class is strong. Forward Zoe Redei tops the list, defender Taylor Otto (from next door in Raleigh) should also have a crack at starting, Madison Shultz should show well in midfield, and Bridget
    Andrzejewski is a powerful forward and a great compliment to Redei. (Plus another CASL player, Morgan Goff. who is a forward.)

    HOWEVER,

    The big issue will be who might red shirt because of the FIFA U-20 directly conflicting with much of the fall season. (There sill be camps in September and October and the actual U-20 tournament runs essentially the same schedule as the NCAA tournament.)

    From the present UNC roster the U-20 list might involve Leshnak, Buckingham, Bailey, and Scarpa, and from the incoming freshman perhaps Zoe Reidei and Taylor Otto. It will certainly not involve all six of these players, but I would venture that two or three may make the U-20 squad. It will depend on who shows best in the camps combined with who fits best in the chemistry and strategy of the coaching staff.

    Redei, Otto, and Scarpa are already listed on the CONCACAF qualifying roster which will play next month in Honduras. (...along with 2017 UNC recruit Emily Fox.) But it is a long 10 months after the CONCACAF qualifers until the roster will be named for the U-20 tournament, and more college players will be available next fall. So here's how I see next fall's U-20 complication for UNC.

    Bailey may be the strongest player of the 6 I have listed, but she has the handicap of recovering form the ACL tear and may not be available for camps and training until August or September which practically speaking may be too late to be selected. For Buckingham and Redei, it will be a matter of who fits their mix best and I suspect that it will be Redei (especially, sadly, with the omission of Bucky from this December's roster.) While Leshnak has attended recent U-20 camps this fall as one of three keepers, only two are typically game rostered and she will not likely be one of them. For Otto to be included in the 2016 roster, she will have to show well next month and in camps next year. It could go either way IMO. I think that the same may be true of Scarpa for next fall, but she is developing nicely.

    Bottom line: I'd count on Redei and Scarpa as red shirts next fall, with a reasonably strong possibility of Otto too. Consequently I think that UNC fans can count on seeing Leshnak, Bucky, and Bailey on the field for the Tarheels with the possibility of Taylor Otto too. (Two years from next fall, Otto, Fox and Briana Pinto also are likely to be red shirting for the U-20 tournament.)

    To speak to your question about ACL recovery time, it used to be one year, but in recent times 9 months has been enough to get most players back to full form (assuming a strong rehab schedule.) I suspect that Dorian and Darcy will be ready by mid summer and Cameron and Jo by mid August,

    So I assume that the starting line-up for next year will be selected from a great group of experienced players.

    Assuming full recovery of injuries we will have a dynamite midfield selected from Boyles, Castleberry, Bailey, Kingman, Buckingham, McFarland, Morris, and Shultz (and always with the possibility of a surprise based on the spring.) At goal will be Harris & Leshnak.

    The defensive backfield needs to be strengthened with the departure of Paige. I personally would like to see Abby Elinsky settle in to the defense. If Taylor Otto is available then she would be a strong candidate along with Julia Ashley, Hannah Gardner, and Maya Worth. I think that we have the defensive skills, but need to work on the mental side of the game. It was the mental bloopers / decisions that gave us problems this year.

    Offensive finishing will be the big challenge. Eliminating that extra touch or two in the box before shooting would be huge. With Scarpa likely gone next fall, our midfield needs to be clicking and if so we could play a 4-2-3-1 and go with a single forward, counting on three midfielders to work the attack deep into the red zone.

    So..... some speculation... but that is what these threads are all about for most of the year!
     
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  3. fanosoccer

    fanosoccer Member

    Jan 17, 2011
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    And don't forget about Maggie Bill, who will be playing next Fall after redshirting this season.
     
  4. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    I guess that I assumed that she was truly going to concentrate on lacrosse given that she is an All American at that sport on a team that only lost last spring's national championship game when Maryland came from behind to win 8-7.
     
  5. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    A passing 2016 UNC recruiting note.....

    Top Drawer Soccer has continuously listed Kaela Schrier (defender from New Jersey) as a UNC commit for the past two years (since her team was here at the CASL shootout in 2013). CBG on his spreadsheet has not listed her for UNC at all. She very publicly committed to Wagner College (A small D-I school near New York) last July via twitter.

    I ran into her last night at the NCAA semifinal games in Cary. I asked her if she had ever committed to UNC, and her comment was that she had no idea of how or why her name is on the Top Drawer list as as a 2016 UNC recruit. (She was wearing her Wagner sweatshirt...)
     
  6. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    UNC has six new recruits coming in next year:

    F - Taylor Otto
    F - Zoe Redei
    F - Morgan Goff
    F - Madison Schultz
    MF - Bridgette Andrzekewski
    D - Kaela Schrier

    Even if Schrier isn't coming to UNC, it's not that big of a deal.
    She was the lowest ranked of their six recruits.

    Zoe Redei and Taylor Otto are their best recruits, and will have an impact on their attack.
     
  7. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Looks like UNC has two commitments already for 2019.

    Maycee Bell and Maggie Pierce are currently in 9th grade and are committed to UNC.

    Livie Cloutier is now in the 8th grade and has been committed to Auburn since she was in the 7th grade.
    She is class of 2020.

    Shea Young is currently in 4th grade, and the top schools better get in on her before she commits somewhere soon.
     
  8. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Methinks that you are relying on Top Drawer Soccer too much for your info.

    Schrier is definitely not coming to UNC.

    Otto is a defender for the U-20s but a forward for her CASL team. Redei is a pure forward and Goff has been playing forward as well. Andrzekewski has been playing attacking mid for her school, while Shultz has mostly been playing midfield this last year. (Not that this will determine where they will play at UNC.)
     
  9. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    Duke only has two seniors.
     
  10. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Reminds me of their 2011 team that made the College Cup Final.
    They had EVERYONE back for 2012, and did not even make the College Cup.
    We'll see if they can change history this time around.
     
  11. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    I'll be taking another look after tomorrow's U20 CONCACAF finals wit regard to speculation about who may be red shirting next fall from UNC. But one thing stands out already. ....Emily Fox! She has really come on strong this summer and fall and looks to be the class leader for UNC's 2017 recruits.

    She was pretty much under the radar for much of her youth career, although as a forward she was a regular scorer for her ECNL team in Richmond. She had one look with the U-15s almost 3 years ago, but that did go anywhere. (Top Drawer had her way down on their list in the triple digits.) Then she came for a recruiting trip to UNC a year ago and reported that she knew immediately that this was the school for her and quickly committed.)

    As is many times the case, after committing (in mid December) Emily started to make waves beyond her club team. In February she was invited for a look at a U18 camp, and impressed and went back again in April. Impressed again and got a look with the U20s in July. Then off on a trip to Mexico with the U18s (to play the Mexican U20s) where she was the top US scorer. This caught the attention of the U20 staff and she became a fixture on that squad traveling to Spain for a tune up for the CONCACAF qualifiers. At those World Cup qualifiers she has started every game at defense, coming up to score a key goal in the tie against Mexico. I'd say that it is a reasonable assumption that Emily will make the US squad that travels to to Papua New Guinea next November.... and that she'll be on the U20s again in her sophomore year at UNC.
     
  12. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    #12 Soccerhunter, Dec 14, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2015
    Both Jessie Scarpa and Emily Fox made the "Best 11" all tournament team at the CONCACAF U20 WWC qualifiers. Congrats to them.

    It's going to get real interesting soon enough as the U20s will start a series of camps to determine who will be on the team going to the championship tournament in Papua New Guinea next November. There is no guarantee that even these "Best 11" USA players will make the final squad as the more experienced college players come back to the team.

    As for UNC players potentially missing for the fall season, I think that it is too early to tell how it will work out, but certainly the U20 staff will take a look at Scarpa, Buckingham, Otto, Redei, and possibly Lechnak. (And I personally think that Julia Ashley deserves a look too, and Dorian Bailey would also, if she weren't injured.) Realistically, none, one, or maybe two from this list will make the U20 team. We'll just have to wait and see so that we can gauge who the Heels will be missing in the fall.
     
  13. European football fan

    Dec 16, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    I have been following this blog for long time, but I have never had time to write my view.
    I specially enjoyed Soccerhunter blogs :).
    English is my second language so I apologize for any mistakes I'll make in the future.

    The U20 team is a difficult issue. Unless the coaching staff completely change this team IMO they do not have any chances to make the semi-final on the WC. A much better U20 team was beaten 3:0 by Japan this year.
    We might see a completely new team by next year. Even very "established" players can be left out. Just ask Morgan Andrew. I guess my point is that we can not make any predictions for the future based on CONCACAF.

    The girls in the U20 pool have to make a major decision what would be the best for their development for the future.
    Especially those who want to be considered for the full WNT in the future.
    Staying with their teams and coaches, working hard/learn and sacrifice the U20 WC for their ultimate goal of UWNT or concentrate only the championship tournament in Papua New Guinea next November. I'm not sure which one is the right answer.

    Go back to the Tar Heels. Just one potential silver lining. Jessie Scarpa IMO one of the smartest collage players. Her vision on the field is second to none. I believe that paring her with Zoe Redei will give the fans a lot of excitement in the future. Zoe's ability to make very sophisticate runs/finishing along Jessie's passes can be a lethal weapon. But this is something that AD has to figure out.
    I guess we just have to wait and see what happens in the next 6-9 months. This is the hardest part.
    Cheers
     
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  14. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Happy Holidays to soccer fans everywhere!

    While I imagine that most Americans are watching pointy ball today, I am musing about UNC soccer for next season.

    Even assuming that all of the injuries heal in time for the fall season (and as far as I have heard, we have had no transfers out) and assuming that the 2016 class appears as currently verbally committed one can only speculate. There are just too many unknowns that will appear before next fall that will influence who the Heels will put on the field. But it will be a strong team!

    A simplistic way of looking at it is that we have five big holes to fill on the field. Bowen, Green, Neilsen, Newfield, and Scarpa. Yes, Scarpa. IMO she is the one UNC player that has the best chance of ending up on the U20 National Team and will be gone at camps and for the NCAA tournament.

    So where to find replacements for these starters? The hole left by Paige might be filled by freshman Taylor Otto (although she has a small but realistic chance of making the U20 team.) So the back four may be Gardner, Otto, Ashley, and Worth or Elinski.

    If the Heels go with 5 middies, it looks to me like Boyles, Kingman, Castleberry, Bailey, and Buckingham. So "replacements" for Bowen and Green will likely be some of the same faces who manned starting positions for portions of this last season. But they will have competition from frosh Madison Shultz and experienced upperclass players McFarlane, Kimball, and Morris.

    For a one-for-one replacement of Scarpa, incoming frosh Bridgette Andrzejewski may turn out to be the choice as she has a similar size and playing style to Scarpa. But I am betting that we will not see a single target forward formation with the likes of frosh Zoe Redei coming onboard. She works well in a team and might really make the offense take off if paired with Sara Ashley Firstenberg, fellow frosh Morgan Goff, (or perhaps Bucky.)

    So, pending on recruiting surprises or other developments this spring, these are my speculations.... Like I said, the Heels will be a strong team next fall!
     
  15. Dave Bowen

    Dave Bowen New Member

    Dec 10, 2015
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    My name is Dave Bowen . I am the Father of Katie Bowen . I was only introduced to the Big Soccer forum fairly recently which is a shame because I have really enjoyed going back over the match reports and reading about other peoples perspectives on games that I have watched . I couldn't think of a suitable pseudonym to give myself although shovel mouth might have been quite appropriate as being English we do tend to be quite vocal at games so if I have offended anybody I do apologise for that .

    Reading through the forum one issue continues to keep appearing and that is the ACL debacle . I can only give you my opinion so here goes . England 66 in one posting suggested that over training would more than likely be the cause . IMO I believe the complete opposite is true , under training is quite a major part of the problem . Anson has developed a training regime based on the Raymond Verherijen principles which has dumbed down the training sessions hugely . In 2012 when Katie first arrived the sessions far exceeded anything she had done before including the NZ national team training . The rewards for this extra hard training was that Katie became the first New Zealander male or female ever to win a Championship ring and UNC added another title to their very impressive record . I can't categorically say that this is the sole reason for the injuries because I'm sure bad luck must also play a part but it is food for thought . I attended most of the training sessions this season and was quite shocked at the difference from 2012 . I even heard that some of the Senior players went to Anson to ask if they could increase their fitness training . I must clarify that I am not talking behind Ansons back as we have had long discussions on this very subject . To no avail I might add .

    There are so many subjects that I could keep talking about as I feel that I am just a little bit closer to the inner sanctum than a lot of people but you would be bored to death and probably get me thrown off of the Forum .

    One point I feel that I must make is to thank every UNC supporter out there for making my Daughter feel so very welcome . I know it sounds corny but for making not only her but us as well part of a very special family . Katie arrived at Chapel Hill on her own , scared , and very nervous four years ago . It was the first time she had left home and the security of being with her Parents . I'm not sure who was most upset Katie or us . We needn't have worried everybody and I mean everybody the players , coaching staff , parents and most of all the UNC supporters were so good to her that home sickness was not even an issue . So once again I must thank you for that .

    Katie has had a fantastic four seasons and just wishes it could go on and on . So do I . What will I do with myself next Fall .

    I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this so apologies if it isn't . Please keep writing your match reports and commenting on all the contentious UNC issues as I look forward to reading them . I hope to see some of you at the 2016 Final Four later in the year .


    Thank you all again so much . From the very ,very proud Father of a Tar Heel
     
  16. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Great to see your post, David! It is very true that all us Tar Heel fans are very sorry that Katie's tenure here is over. As best we can, we will be following her exploits from this point forward.
     
  17. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    The U20 January camp roster has been posted with interesting implications for the 2016 Tar Heels. In addition to Emily Fox (who is a high school junior), three players who will otherwise be playing in Chapel Hill next fall are at the camp -- Jessie Scarpa, Julia Ashley, and Taylor Otto. Not that I expect that this will necessarily be the final list of UNC players being looked at for the U20 team. I would not be surprised to see Bucky getting another look at an upcoming camp, or Leshnak or Redei, or even Dorian Bailey later in the process (perhaps in June or July) if she has healed enough to participate.

    It is interesting to me that Taylor and Julia are at the same camp. Both play defense and it would amazing if both were on the final U20 roster, but that is not likely. Perhaps the selection of them both was purposeful as one way of thoroughly vetting the young Taylor. (and then again maybe neither will make the final U20 roster.)

    Subject to lots of revisions over the next 7 months, right now I see Jessie being the most likely Tar Heel not to be playing in Chapel Hill next fall and going to Papau New Guinea instead.
     
  18. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    I will be a UNC fan whether they go 30-0 or 0-30. I mean it. I love watching the team. I love fetzer field. I love they way they seem to enjoy the game , win or lose. I think Anson is a genius and a great human being. So, this is not meant to be a critical post. Just an observation of reality.

    For a long time, unc was the favorite every year to win the ncaa title. When things got a bit more even among the top schools, with talent spread around more, and with more elite players overall, unc still remainded a contender for the title, at least at the start of each season. I think we have reached the point where unc is now basically one of about 10-15 teams that have solid years every year. They won't be considered a favorite or a contender for the ncaa title in 2016 or in most years to come in the next 5 or so years.

    I would love to be wrong, so if you tell me I am, I will be eager to cave on my assertions here.
     
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  19. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    Katie Bowen has been a true gem in the history of unc soccer. Even with all of her talent, what stands out to me is how she conducted herself as a person on the field. I won't soon forget seeing her coach an opposing player through breathing excercises after getting hit or helping another opposing player work through a cramp. As a player, she excelled wherever Anson put her, a truly selfless player who seemed like the ultimate teammate. Kudos to you, Katie's Dad. You clearly did a lot right as a father.
     
  20. European football fan

    Dec 16, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Katie is a poster child for not only a great player but a true role model for young girls. I'm sure she has inspired (or will inspire) a lot of little girls to play football in NZ. As a father of a girl I can fully appretiate how special she is.
    You must be super proud of her. Good luck to her and your family.
     
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  21. European football fan

    Dec 16, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    I do not agree with you. Obviously we will not see UNC dominating NCAA again. The matter of fact IMO it will not happen again. See what happened with FSU and UCLA this year. Most probably in the future no teams will dominate. But it is good. It makes tha games more interesting. What makes you think that UNC can not be a contender for 5 years? The player pool is great and very deep. It is unlikely that half of the team will be injurered in the same time again. Recruiting is till strong.
    By the way recruiting. All these rankings about recruiting classes are completely useless. Counting previous NT camps,teams, TDS ranking, (this would require another blog) etc. will not predict how the particular player will fit the new team, relationship with the coach/teammates and overall performance. Also signing multiple very high ranking strikers in one year when your the team might need more deffence might not be a good idea either. So the value of a class depends on so many variables that IMO it is inpossible to see the inpact of it for years. Certainly not prior to the season.
    Anson has a very special relationship with his player which is quite unique.
    The enviroment is very nurturing that make tha players feel like a big family.
    Yes it will be quite difficult to win the Cup for any teams, but UNC has all the right ingredients for being a champion any of the next five years.
    Do not worry if TDS would rank UNC #25 in the preseason, and claiming that it has no chance to win. It does not matter at all. They will be a contender.
    Hope we will have a great season.
    Cheers!
     
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  22. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    I hope you are right. I will be rooting for them every year regardless.
     
  23. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dave, let me say as a University of Portland fan, but more importantly as a women's soccer fan, your post is one of the best posts I've seen on BS and it has made me really happy to hear how much your daughter gained from her time playing college soccer in the US. You're also a great writer!

    Speaking for myself, and I'm sure for a lot of other posters, we would love to hear more from you about other subjects. From your discussion of ACL injuries, I can see that you exercise a proper level of diplomacy and will know the limits of what you can say and what would be "off limits" from a confidentiality perspective. Please write more!

    And PS -- maybe Katie wants to play for the Thorns?
     
  24. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Who knows what happens behind the scenes?? Local 5'8" defender Abby Staker who had publicly committed to Duke as of last year, signed her NLI today with UNC. Staker is an long-time ODP player, so may be a walk on with developmental potential. Her good bud is Taylor Otto.... If everyone else signs (or signed) then it looks like a class of 6 unless there are more we do not know about.
     
  25. Enzo the Prince

    Sep 9, 2007
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Certainly not. I don't think any sports medicine professional would dream of making that claim. ACL injuries have been studied in depth for years at places like Stanford and UMass, and there is still little consensus about cause. All we know is that females are more vulnerable than males, and soccer involves all of the movements considered most dangerous. So what happened at UNC last season is not that rare. It happens all over the country to lower-profile teams you never hear about.

    If being undertrained were a major cause, then we should be seeing ACLs snapping right and left with weekend warriors playing pickup or intramural soccer. I think they happen more at higher levels of play.

    You also seem to be suggesting that 'extra hard training' is why UNC won their last title. I think it was Crystal Dunn. Take her out of that team, and someone else wins College Cup that year. Just my opinion.

    The The Raymond Verheijen stuff is the way of the future, and UNC are hardly the only converts. Current college players are always going to be resistant to change. It'll seem normal for younger kids coming up.
     
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