Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Sanctions work to a certain extent, but one thing the U.S. Administrations always seem to misjudge is that the local populace doesn't always blame their own leaders

 

Russia's economy is built around natural gas and oil prices being high. When the prices collapse, as they have, then there needs to be a vibrant middle class to support the economy. This has been destroyed by twenty years of failed Russian policies. Hardly a surprise that Putin holds on to power by trying to reclaim "lost territory."

 

In the case of Iran, with much more severe and serious sanctions and a drop in oil prices, Iran has nonetheless experienced modest economic growth after a couple of years when, adjusting to sanctions, Iran's economy did shrink. The point is a country like Russia can certainly weather the storm. Indeed, I truly wish the Russians would be a bit more independent minded and dare to genuinely befriend Iran, regardless of how harshly they will be treated by the US and company. Iran and Russia together can truly be a force no one could mess with. Too bad the Russians were so timid during the Ahmadinejad years and, instead of daring to befriend Iran, went along with sanctions and other measures against us. Too bad the Russians have been so timid they haven't dared (long before the UN sanctions, ever since the Gore-Chernomyrdin pact) to even sell Iran the kind of fighter jets and military equipment they can sell to some random country in Africa. Too bad they have been so timid that they even refused to deliver the S-300 to Iran despite being obligated to do so by contract and even though that is a purely defensive weapon! It was the goal of Russian policy, ever since Tsarist days, to gain access to the warm water ports of the Persian Gulf. For more than two centuries they were thwarted in that objective. When the opportunity presented itself for them to have a real presence in the region, to be sure not as occupiers but as an ally, they bolted and ran scared. Yet, there are those who claim Putin has been running wild and starting the cold war again! Just because he hasn't been a complete tool and patsy doesn't change the fact that he has appeased the US (especially on Iran) left and right. All the way to include in these nuclear negotiations, as discussed in the article I cited.

 

Russia has never had a middle class.

 

They don't sell you weapons because they don't trust you.

 

I don't think that's true. All the people who work for the companies that do telecoms, etc. are the Russian middle class. The problem is that the Russian middle class has never been politically active, so has never formed any kind of cohesive social consciousness of any kind.

 

Yes, I've made that point before, but it all goes past propaganda monitor. Russia doesn't need Iran, nor is a Russia/Iran block remotely persuasive.

 

Yes but that whole class has only come about since 1998

 

Sure, but what kind of a middle class could you have had during Communist times? The intelligencia?

There was some beginnings of a proto-middle class before the revolution, but those were obviously eradicated right quick.

 

That is honestly not true. The Russians have simply and rather explicitly been worried about the backlash such weapons sales would carry. They know the intense obsession and focus of Israel, and through Israel much of the American political class, on Iran and have tried to avoid the costs by appeasing them on this issue. That is why even in the nuclear negotiations with Iran, the one (and only) area where the Russians (and Chinese) split with the rest of the P5+1 gang was on the UN embargo on sale of weapons to Iran. They wanted the embargo removed and were looking for tacit US approval of Russian sale of conventional weapons to Iran. The US didn't budge and ultimately the most that was accomplished was getting the embargo's tenure reduced to 5 years.

 

As for a Russian alliance with Iran, it is more than just plausible: despite past Russian timidity, with the sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of Ukraine, the Russians are the ones who are now showing more interest in such an alliance, while Iran's current administration (which seeks closer ties to the west) is being cautious. Nonetheless, with the Russians previously saying that the condition for Iran to become a full fledged member of the Shanghai Cooperation Council was Iran agreeing to the nuclear deal (to provide themselves cover against US/Israeli accusations and attacks), such an alliance is indeed being formed. The alliance, however, is developing between one segment of Iran's regime, while another segment wants relations with the west.

I don't agree with some of what is written in this article, but it is worth a read nonetheless.

http://www.alternet.org/world/growi...strategic-alliance-has-got-pentagon-trembling
The Growing China-Russia-Iran Strategic Alliance Has Got the Pentagon Trembling
It signals an evolving Eurasian missile shield deployed against Pentagon/NATO ballistic plans.

 

Of course. The Russians are scared of upsetting the west. That makes perfect sense.

 

Before the sanctions on Russia itself, they were because the Russians didn't want a new cold war actually. And were not interested in finding themselves isolated. They didn't want, at the time, to be the "New Iran". I can post dozens of reports that will tell you that they cancelled the sale of S300 under US/Israeli pressure. That is just not even in dispute. I can post dozens of reports that will tell discuss this issue more broadly. However, with the situation in Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed on Russia, the Russians are talking a different tune. Having been pushed to this point, they are now considering becoming the "New Iran".

 

I'm enjoying the explanations from propaganda monitor about how Russia operates. It's fascinating.

 

Yes, Russia didn't want to sell Iran military equipment because it didn't trust Iran, but it signed the agreement to sell the S-300 to Iran just because, and then reneged on it under western pressure. But of course that had nothing to do with Russia being afraid of being turned into a pariah!

Yes, Russia lobbied for a removal of UN arms embargo against Iran in the context of the nuclear negotiations because it doesn't trust Iran with conventional military sales. That makes perfect sense.

Anyway, what motivated Russia to be timid and actually appease the US, despite the claims Putin was reviving the cold war for merely refusing to be a total tool, were largely upset by the situation in the Ukraine. Since then, with sanctions against Russia and the Russian economy taking a nose dive, the Russians are becoming the "New Iran" whether they want to or not. Which is why, in time, you will see the Russians almost begging Iran to consider the kind of alliance that Iran has been offering them for a while.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-and-iran-are-trading-places/27127097.html
Russia And Iran Are Trading Places

Russia was asked to appease the west to prove it was a real partner. Eventually, enough became enough when the appeasement required them to accept things on their doorstep, on an issue they perceive they are right about and which touches their sphere of influence, namely Ukraine.

 

The Russians will soon be begging Iran!!

 

Coming from a pro Israeli poster, when AIPAC and Israel busy in the real world trying to make everything everywhere about Iran, that is rich.
Anyway, unless you are allergic to the word IRAN, the issue here is not so much Iran but Russia. And the affect of the Ukraine situation on Russia and its policies. The specific issue is whether Russia will be the "New Iran" (meaning a pariah, and implicitly assuming Iran will make friends with the west)? Or whether Russia will even forge a new alliance (this time with Iran) with similar repercussions as the Warsaw Pact, as a result the dynamics unleashed by the situation in the Ukraine? Or whether Russia will be brought back to "prove" to the west's satisfaction that it is in fact an ally of the west"?

These are all profound issues and a lot more significant than the drivel you guys like to talk about.

Btw, given what is going on, there is actually little discussion about Iran on Bigsoccer! That is because too many posters have for too long complained about hearing about Iran. Otherwise, the biggest news in American politics is about Iran.

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.


Oh, this is why propaganda monitor isn't on ignore. It's the lulz.

 

The biggest news in American politics, for the average run-of-the mill, couch potato or truck driver type American is Donald Trump. But the debate about the so-called "historic" nuclear deal negotiated between Iran and the US/P5+1 is the most important political issue in the US right now. If that makes you laugh, so be it.

 

You could argue that the middle class of the communist era were all the managers and functionaries that a communist state grows.

 

The biggest news in American politics is deservedly the race to be the leader of the free world. You could argue that the biggest news in American foreign policy is the nuclear deal, but even then it's debatable because Russia's continuing aggression in Ukraine or even the Chinese currency shenanigans are more important.

Iran just isn't that important in the grand scheme of things. Sorry. And I'm not even trolling you. Countries with huge chips on their shoulder (like Russia) hope that "the West" finds them really important. We generally don't.

They were homo soveticus and were bureaucrats of the worst kind, especially since they were their position, effectively - they lost all power if replaced. That doesn't a middle class make.

 

My point is that they were the closest thing the Soviet Union had to a middle class. I was thinking of Orwell's "Outer Party" types.

 

Yes, but they didn't have any of the "middle class values" you'd typically associate with that class. They were basically party apparatchiks at a lower level.