Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Not anytime soon. They'll have to have a slow simmer of conflict in the area right after the ceasefire. A month or more maybe.


Also cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea means taking Odessa which seems a huge leap at present

 

Well there was Panama and Grenada but we were smart enough to go in, get it done, and get out immediately.

 

I mean the cia has taken out several leadership groups and funded a host of rebel groups in Latin America. Of course just because america did it doesn't mean it's justified.

 

Some of the earlier comments trying to rebuke Russia for doing things the US would do while making sure the other guys were painted as the "bad guys", are down right silly. The US has engaged in every play in the book, from outright invasion to openly funding and arming rebels to covert actions to draw, redraw and otherwise shape the political and geopolitical map in and around the globe (never mind just in its neighborhood) to its liking!

As it relates to attitudes and the relationship with Russia, Ukraine is a society that pretty much appears split down the middle. Hence, you have had elected Ukrainian governments taking a pro Russian line undermined by dubious methods and means aka the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the 2014 Revolution. In any case, there is clearly a majority in the Crimea that is either of Russian origin and/or is pro Russian in its political and geopolitical orientation. In fact, I am actually curious why Crimea was transferred by Khrushchev to the Ukraine SSR in the first place? Under these circumstances, the fact that Russia has taken sides and has interfered is totally understandable. Not that I mind the clearly hypocritical western reaction. Seeing Putin in fact try to appease the West constantly, despite the criticisms leveled at him, wasn't exactly a pleasing to me. Hopefully the new circumstances will make Russia a bit more independent minded in pursuing its foreign policy objectives.

 

Oh, there's no question about that, but those were generally proxy wars where the USSR was supplying money and weapons to the other side. Both the USSR and the US did that as part of the "great game" - I'm hardly claiming the US' hands are clean. But to my recollection the US hasn't invaded a sovereign nation recently with the intention of destabilizing them, while plucking off small chunks of territory piece by piece. The US hasn't fought a war of conquest since probably the Spanish American War, I'd say, and I suspect few people around are still angry over that one.

Unintentional comedy is by far the best comedy. That sentence literally made me laugh out loud.

 

If Russia was pursuing a completely independent policy before, including for instance viz a viz Iran, it wouldn't succumb to pressure by the US and promise not to sell any arms to Iran (the Gore-Chernomyrdin Agreement) ever since the 1990s, with Putin pretty much living up to the spirit of that agreement as well. That is why Iran has not received any substantial conventional or other military weapons from Russia (or any other outside source) for a long time, despite its air force in particular being interested in purchasing advanced fighter aircraft. Under Putin, Russia did enter into agreements to sell Iran defensive systems, but while it delivered on one of them, it reneged under US pressure in selling Iran the S-300 anti-misssle/aircraft system. The other day, however, the Russians announced they are ready to sell Iran an even more advanced anti-missle/aircraft system, since they are no longer interested in appeasing the US as much.

Of course, all the UN resolutions passed against Iran were passed with Russia signing on as well. The Russians were also cooperating, mostly fearing a US backlash and US sanctions, in the sanctions regime imposed on Iran.

Anyway, comedy or not, depending on the outcome of the Iran-US (P5+1) negotiations, we might see a Russia which is no longer as timid in pursuing policies that would seek to find more cooperative and mutually beneficial arrangements with Iran. Not that I trust the Russians and would like to have much beyond any arms length transactions with them, but clearly Iran and Russia could be cooperating a lot more than they have.

 

And I stopped reading right there.

 

I am just surprised we have not had an Iran thread jack earlier.


In other news, US and British troops paraded in Estonia 300 yards from Russia.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...army-parade-300-yards-from-Russia-border.html

 

What the Hell was that?

 

I don't think that the current ceasefire will hold anyway. The facts are that it isn't holding as it is.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...ficials-to-secure-weapons-purchase-1424788248

 

The only way this gets solved is more capitulation by Ukraine. I just don't think Russia is interested at all in losing political power in Ukraine. Russia has enough political support in the East that it can use that as leverage at any time. The fact that Ukraine can't unite all its citizens in the East under a common Kiev agenda means that it's operating in this from a position of weakness. If you can't get your house in order your house is weak and susceptible to foreign meddling.

Like I've said all along Maidan bit off more than it can chew. It did too much too soon. Would have been smarter to not push for a coup but to use that groundswell of anger at the ballot box. The fact that this all started with a coup just easily feeds into the Russian narrative that Kiev started this whole mess.

 

You are viewing Russia as an honest actor; they are not. That makes the rest of your narrative either naive or pointless. There's nothing that Russia would have accepted, not to mention that the Maidan movement did NOT bigin as a push for Yanukovich to leave - he chose to when he felt his position became untenable.

 

Sad

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/...ndoned-ukraine-separatist-project/522320.html

 

You find the lack of people dying sad.

That's pretty awful

 

Not my intention. Sad that's a people aspiration for autonomy, home rule and independence is put on hold or on the decline.

 

They're not people … They're Chechen suicide bombers! The true citizens of Donbass keep a portrait of Poroshenko wrapped in a Ukrainian flag tucked near their hearts at all times.

 

Yes Poroshenko is the most honest and transparent president in Ukrainian history!!! ( that's not saying much) he would never harm his own people by indiscriminately shelling civlians with artillery. The ex-oligarch is a democrat after all!!!!

 

Yea if only a few thousand more people die they'll finally be free. In heaven or whatever

 

In this opinion piece, the author is worried that Russia would do exactly as I had suggested: stand up to western pressures, act as genuine independent power, and be as defiant in the face of pressures as Iran has been for decades. In other words, far from comedy, what I had suggested is the real issue that Russia faces. I would prefer Russia choose the path suggested in my quote above. The author prefers the opposite.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/opinion/maxim-trudolyubov-is-russia-the-new-iran.html?_r=0
Is Russia the New Iran?