Impact of Nations Leagues (UEFA original, Concacaf) on World Football? [Multiple R]

1) Any idea how do they determine the best 4 teams from each division? Is it based on UEFA National Ranking or matches within the Nations League?

2) And if/when there are less than 4 teams available for the qualifying playoffs, how does it work? Do they take the highest ranked or lowest ranked teams from the lower league to include into the tougher qualifying playoffs?

Basically, at this point, it is not clear to me how the actual Nations League matches matter at all(?) Because it sounds like the answer to #1 above is the former (ie. National Ranking). Which begs the question, so what if you get relegated to a lower league? It's actually an advantage because it puts you into an easier bracket for Euro qualifying.

I must be missing something...

 

Not only that, giving Division D a guaranteed spot in Euro 2020 could potentially compromise the integrity of the 2018 World Cup qualifiers. If a team like Estonia or Armenia (both currently sitting in Division D) drops out of contention in 2018 World Cup qualifying with multiple matches to go, they're arguably better off throwing the remaining qualifiers so as to ensure they remain in Division D, thereby increasing their chances of qualifying for Euro 2020. This is very counterintuitive from UEFA. They're basically rewarding mediocrity.

 

Do you mean the 4 sides going to the Final 4? That's matches within. Same goes for relegation/promotion.
The seeding to kick off the event is based on UEFA Ranking, e.g.:

Nations League A (group winners advance to Final 4 and 3rd placed teams are relegated to 2020/21 NL B)

Top seeds: Germany, Portugal, France and Belgium
Pot 2: England, Spain, Italy and Switzerland
Pot 3: Austria, Croatia, Poland and Wales

It's to be expected that all/almost all of these sides will qualify via the regular Qs ... if 1 or more didn't qualify then the best (it seems, not 100% sure) NTs from league B are added until you have 4 NTs for the NL A play-off ... apply same logic to NL B etc. ... NL D will always have 1 play-off berth.

Don't forget that dropping down a league could also mean dropping a pot during the draw for the regular Qs (where 20 of the 24 berths are) ... the 4 play-off berths basically help the biggest NTs if they somehow mess up the regular Qs and are a handout for NL D minnows.

The idea was to have a NL before WCs as well ... can't tell if the format will be the same.

 

Yeah, but that seems like a minor thing because it only holds true for the first iteration of the NL. After the 2017 rankings are set in stone, the composition of Division D is based on NL results only.

That said, I don't see any incentive in actually winning your NL matches.

 

Is that true though? My interpretation of the format is that the pots for regular qualifiers are entirely based on the UEFA National Ranking. So it doesn't take into account NL results.

So what's the incentive to win NL group-stage matches then? I can see if you're into the tournament of 4 in one of the leagues there is a huge incentive, but what about the group matches?

 

Overal ranking of all teams after end of group stage will decide seeding of teams to pots before draw of classic qualification of UEFA Euro 2020 ... that's from the format link in my previous post but I saw something similar on UEFA's site too.

This could be at stake:

- Nations League silverware after winning Final (yes you need to get into the top tier league first)
- relegation to a lower league or promotion to a higher league (need to get to top tier for final 4)
- your chances to play tougher competition (and improve your own players) are better in top leagues + financially those ties are more interesting (nothing was mentioned but it will probably be the centralized rights scheme + distr. key)
- there are 4 EURO berths after play-offs (you can also enter play-offs in top leagues but yes those are more difficult)
- not 100% confident but it looks like play-off seeding (1st-4th and 2nd-3rd + home advantage) also depends on where you end up in the NL
- seeding in European Qs (could lead to very uneven Qs, e.g. the likes of Germany relegate)

Edit: Play-off slots are dropped down to lower Leagues if less than four teams remain available for a play-offs. Best-ranked team will play against fourth best-ranked team and second best-ranked team will play against third best-ranked team (higher-ranked teams will play semi-final at home field, venue for the final will be drawn in advance between the two semi-finals' winners). Winners from all four divisions' play-offs will qualify for UEFA Euro 2020 final tournament.

 

I get that, but what is meant by "overall ranking"? It seems like they are talking about the UEFA National Ranking which is a totally separate thing from the Nations League. So it doesn't appear that the NL has any impact on seeding.

However...

In the meantime, I found this useful article, which includes a hypothetical example : http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...nament-work-affects-Euro-2020-qualifying.html

In theory, if you win your NL group then you have a second shot at qualifying for the Euros. In practice, this probably would only matter in leagues "C" and "D". If you're in league "A" or "B", even if you finish dead last in your NL group you still may have a second chance to qualify for the Euros because the top 2 teams in your group probably qualified through the regular method.

In summary, there is an incentive to be in either league "A" or "B" because (apart from the money incentive you mention above) then you are almost guaranteed to always be a 'top 4 team not yet qualified'. Whereas if you're in league "C" or "D" you basically have to win your Nations League group to get that second chance to qualify (and in some cases there are 4 teams in a group so its obviously tougher to win a group).

A consequence of this is that you should cheer for the other teams in your NL group to do well in regular Euro qualifying. For e.g. say you're Dutch and Holland are in a NL group with Belgium and England. Then Holland would've had a second chance to qualify for Euro 2016 even if they didn't win their NL group (because England and Belgium qualified directly)

 

"The overall UEFA Nations League rankings will determine the composition of the draw pots for the subsequent European Qualifiers" - UEFA

UEFA uses the words "national team coefficient rankings" for the initial seeding and overall UEFA Nations League rankings once the group stage is concluded (and teams can be ranked based on performance in NL). Had a source that stated that this overall ranking will be drawn up after the group stage based on performance in NL ... could be in the wiki (either the UNL one or UNL 2018/19 one) ... better seeding in regular Qs looks like another incentive.

 

I think it would work both ways though, no? Most European powers will be in league "A" anyway, but if a smaller nation gets promoted to "A" then that could help their FIFA ranking. But I guess these will just be counted by FIFA as friendlies anyway..

 

Just to clarify: The seedings for Euro 2024 qualifying will be based on how teams finish in the 2018-19 Nations League? Is this correct?

 

The seedings for Euro 2024 qualifying will be based on how teams finish in the 2022-23 Nations League. Euro2020 Qs ... how teams finish in the 2018-19 Nations League. Euro2016 was the last one without a Nations League.

Regular Qs start after the NL group phase and end before the NL play-offs (for the inaugral edition that's regular Qs in 2019 ... 10 groups with top 2 qualifying) ... 20 NTs from regular Qs + 4 NTs from NL play-offs compete in the next Euros (have to wait and see what will happen ahead of a WC ... maybe an adjusted format will be in place but to do it before WC2022 they'll have to take into account that it's a winter WC)



NL Final 4 Championship in June ... always during uneven years ... first one in June 2019 with the 4 group winners from the top tier league (A)

 

This is all very confusing and new.
I love t.

Glad ESPN has the rights here in the States. Going to be more fun to watch than friendlies that would have been played during these match days.

 

Obviously the major positive is this replaces friendlies that no one (even the players that were playing in them) cared about.

Not a big fan of this having any connection to Euro 2020 tho. Why let an obviously inferior team (Team D) into the competition. It's awful.

 

This 24 team format for the Euros won't last long ... it might even be abandoned after 2020 ... UEFA will never go back to 16 ... because they've generated record-breaking revenue and profits ... 32 teams will generate even more revenue and profits ... there will be weaker teams in a 32 team format ... in that case you won't notice an NL D minnow anyway ... besides the NL has a big churn and after a few tournaments bigger teams will sink to the bottom leagues.

 

Disagree. I think the 24 team Euro is here to stay for a long time. 32 is far too much and would effectively make qualifying null and void, while 16 has financial disadvantages like you mentioned.

Without the connection to Euro 2020 the Nations League would be completely meaningless though. The NL games would just revert to being friendlies.

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Anybody know what the rules will be for NL matches? I mean would they follow competitive rules or friendly rules (i.e. in terms of # of substitutions, etc.)

 

I know you disagree but that's imho the whole purpose of the scheme
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/artic...h-richer-that39s-why-it-exists-us-translation

 

That's a poorly sourced article and a bit tin foil hat ... even a quick glance at the basic format reveals easily avoidable errors ... e.g. minnows will still meet the top sides in Qs (those dead rubbers will remain ... the writer must like routs and how do unevenly matched ties help minnows exactly?), the 4 play-off berths don't go to the semifinalists of the Final 4 ... every league gets 1 and most teams in the top leagues will already have qualified so those will go to lower leagues, etc.

Can you explain the huge churn in the NL? How will that help the top teams? Especially in the top tier league it will be cut-throat (1 out of 3 relegate while facing tough opposition) ... you'll see big sides drop and smaller ones rise ... and what used to be unthinkable, e.g. Germany no longer being a top seed for the subsequent European Qs, is now a real possibility.

When it was everyone fends for themselves, the top sides were raking in most of the revenue ... I'll rather see this as a correction in favour of smaller markets (and minimal gains for larger ones) ... the impact could be bigger for the poorer FAs (as a little revenue increase can mean a world of difference) ... England have too much money ... will they really improve when they get even more money?

 

Yeah, that all hinges on the title being important. I'm skeptical. I think even in the NL championship final teams will use the game as a tune-up to the Euros, experimenting with new players and new formations, etc.

 

Yeah, I mean under the current format the big NTs can schedule friendlies against other big NTs any time they want. And they do, for the most part.

So yeah, that's a pretty terrible piece of journalism. There are no facts to back up the author's argument other than the ones s/he got wrong and the speculation that this will generate more revenue. But without knowing how that revenue is distributed, no such conclusion can be drawn from it. The reality is, you can easily see how a top nation can slip to League "B". It's not like they're protected in a top league forever.
Although I guess we won't know for sure who it helps until its begins.

 

The only negative to that I can see is that friendlies were the perfect time for managers to see what bench players can do within experimental lineups and tactical formations without having to risk much.

Sure, they can still do it in practice, but it is not the same as in friendlies against different players, tactics and styles.


And that kinda relates to another obvious negative... ...teams will only play other UEFA teams. Not as entertaining in some ways than friendlies against Big teams from other confederations.