U.S. v. Australia 7/29 (2018 ToN Round 2) pre/pbp/post

I like Casey Short. I'd be happy to see her as a regular starter with Dunn as one of the wing players.

I was just saying that it is also possible to play Dunn on the wing, and still have a fullback who is a proven major offensive contributor from that position (Kling).

But, ya, Short at LB and Dunn at wing totally works for me. Especially if you plug in a more attacking player (Long works for me) as one of the 3 mids.

 

And Ellis made a point to play away games in the lead-up to the 2015 WWC where we played in Canada, which was essentially a home field for us. Now in the lead-up to the 2019 WWC in France we have no away games scheduled this year...maybe there's something in the works for the winter?

 

i love this. (& much respect to you & other statisticians who post on these boards). i'm always checking game stats ( no, i'm not a statistician by any means) and rewatching (portions of) games because it seems like i've watched a different game than some posters.

and as one of those who writes and believes the kind of posts you refer to, i know that i'm just going by my "feeling" that we have, in recent memory, lost or drawn games with teams like japan, france, or australia, when we never used to lose to them.

plus i "feel" that in general we don't dominate games and we don't win by as many goals as we used to.

but that's just a feeling, and it certainly goes back beyond 12 months.

i'm certainly prepared to have my mind changed by an analysis of the actual data from maybe the last 5 or so years.

 

I took it back 10 years for you. There's multiple draws and losses with teams like Japan and France, plus the odd draws against teams like South Korea, Iceland, and New Zealand. I'm still going to agree that this is a golden generation for Australia, but there have always been teams that seem to have the USWNT's number, like Sweden.

2017 record: 12-3-1 (losses to England, France, and Australia; draw with Canada)
2016 record: 22-0-3 (draws with Japan, Colombia, and Sweden...okay, we can count that last one a loss)
2015 record: 20-2-4 (losses to France and China; draws with Iceland, South Korea, Sweden, and Brazil)
2014 record: 16-3-5 (losses to Sweden, Denmark, and Brazil; draws with Japan, Canada, France, China, and Brazil...the year of the horrible Algarve and Brasilia Cup and all leading up to the 2015 WWC)
2013 record: 13-0-3 (draws with Sweden, Germany, and New Zealand)
2012 record: 28-1-3 (loss to Japan; draws with Japan and twice to Germany)
2011 record: 13-3-4 (losses to Sweden twice and England; draws to Brazil, Japan, Canada and Sweden...the draw with Brazil was won in pk's and the draw with Japan was lost in pk's. I'm sure you remember those.)
2010 record: 15-1-2 (loss to Mexico...that one; draws with Sweden and China)
2009 record: 7-0-1 (draw with Sweden, but lost in pk's at the Algarve)
2008 record: 33-1-2 (loss to Norway; draws to Canada and South Korea)

 

On the broadcaster thing - I really like how JPDC does play-by-play. He does a lot of the classic soccer manner of simply identifying what player is on the ball. When properly shot, the angle is so wide that it can be difficult to tell which player is on the ball. JP does a great job of just saying the name of the person on the ball.

I watched the 2nd half of the men's friendly vs. France last night. The announcing is awful. Darke and Twellman treat it like they're at a bar talking about soccer, while there's a game on in the background. They talk about anything but the game.

Last thing, on Allie - not a fan. Not sure why she got to be the #1. Especially don't like how she seems to force the British-isms in. She likes to talk about his/her "favorite right foot." The expression is "favored." The other night she used "joy" (I hate that expression anyway) awkwardly. There are others, but I'm on cold medicine (I have a cold) and brain isn't working. Allie, just talk like you'd talk to your friends.

 

We do have that one scheduled in France January 20thish, 2019

 

I concur. I think most of the advancement has come in two areas. First 6-15 in the rankings is much stronger than it used to be. The US used to dominate teams out of the top five and now those teams r capable of giving the US a good match. The second thing thats changed is players outside the top 5 r fitter, playing for better clubs, getting better coaching and staying with soccer longer. What hasn't changed is the US is the one constant in international woso. Germany is still in a down period which Im surprised about. France is an enigma. England & Canada after a steady rise seem to have plateaued. Japan has fallen well off the standard in their glory years. China and Norway faded away. Australia, after a big move last year has settled back a bit. Teams like The Netherlands and Spain seem to be comers but time will tell.

A question Id rather see asked and asked hard is what has the US been doing about this perception that the world is catching up? The answer is not much so far. There has been a big push to improve development but its in the youth areas where the US has been caught and surpassed. A lot of people don't expect the US U20 to get out of a very tough group at WC, an event they've won 3 times out of 8. The U17s haven't been a WC threat since 2008 and have never won. The US still develops quality players but with the sheer numerical advantage ud think their developmental teams would do better on the world stage. There has also been endless talk about improving against bunked teams. Since their ouster at the Olympic ud think this would be job 1 for Ellis. Quite frankly they have accomplished nothing in this area. They r still a good bunker away from being knocked out by a team good enough to defend for 120 minutes. What they seem to be doing instead of addressing these things is trying to find better players because their coach has built her career on winning because she just has a lot more talent.

So, is the world catching up...not yet...but we seem to be doing a better job backing up to the pack than we r maintaining our advantage.

 

so....

what's the conclusion?

in the heyday of the uswnt, did they have a greater number of years when they didn't lose a game?

... and what was the relative strength of the teams each year?

 

That's like saying we're gonna stop breathing air for a while and try something. The one constant in the Ellis tenure has been...if u can't run an actual offense at least u can put more players in the attack. She's tried it with every position except GK (maybe Betos still gets a look?) She gone with offensive OBs and cut more defensive minded players at that position. She has gone to a two up midfield and now even a flat midfield where all three miss can attack. She tried a 3 back and even tried to hide an attacker as a CB. With Dunn she has essential gone to a quasi 3 back so her left back can start farther forward and get into attack. I think the only way Dunn gets a parole is if she thinks O'Hara can do it as well.

Big picture tho, I prefer Dunn at LB. It isn't like Dunn got moved back into defense. With the full roster healthy, Ellis starts Dunn on the bench if not at LB. Dunn can effect games at LB but not so much sitting next to Press on the bench.

 

Yeah they aren't doing ToN next year and SBC will be different if happening. There will be plenty of opportunity for road trips.

 

I agree with the concept that there may be some overemphasis of the outcome of the "tournament."

But, what's different than a simple friendly is that there are three games in just over a week, against high level competition. This is much more of a simulation of the World Cup competition than a simple friendly. In that sense, I think it's a significant step towards the World Cup.

 

Great work. Where did you go for the individual game results? I'd like to go back and seen the entire schedule we played over those years, to compare it to the last 12 months. What I'm wondering is, in those years how many opportunities did the US give itself to lose to top teams, as compared to the last 12 months. That's important, because evaluating a team's strength based on data isn't just a matter of win-draw-loss record but also is a matter of the strength of your schedule.

 

The next thing you will tell me is there is no Santa Claus.

 

There is a Santa Claus bit his contract wasn't picked up in favor of Lloyd. Sorry.

 

That is one of my favorite Marx Bros bits. Thanks for posting.
Good joke, huh, Boss.

 

???

you concur with cp that the u.s. is NOT dominating like they used to?

or that the u.s. IS dominating like they used to?

what do you think cp said?

 

I'll point you in the direction of the USWNT media guide, which is also a super helpful resource for finding out old lineups, caps, etc. In the 2018 media guide, year-by-year results start on page 54. Then I'll let you do the hard work of comparing strength of schedule.

 

You Rascal

 

If I read his post correctly I concur that other teams catching up is more perception than fact. And if it isn't what he said, well, um Im not only completely opposed but against reading in general!!!!

 

you seemed to concur by immediately disagreeing - giving a couple of examples why other teams are indeed catching up, followed by a caveat.

...was just wondering.

 

I have to put my original post in context. When I said the rest of the world was catching up, my frame of reference was late 1980's until now. We would regularly beat Mexico and other teams by 8 to 10 goals - most of those we played in friendlies. But those teams got credit because they existed, We knew the future was bright and this day would come.

 

You read it correctly.

 

Correct. My caveat would be the US shouldn't be looking in the rear view mirror at all...they need to be looking at themselves. IMO the way u continue to stay in a position of dominance is improve ur tactics and the ability to execute them. I see this happening in some aspects but see no progress in others. The way u keep a lead in a race isn't looking over ur shoulder but driving ahead and putting more pressure on those that follow to catch u.

 

Great post. I know you're right about Dunn's options with Ellis being left back or left bench, but I can still advocate her getting a real shot as an attacking winger.