The USA @ Iowa :: Pre, PBP & Post Match Thread [R]

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, Jan 30, 2016.

  1. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Hillary may eventually be a good president, but she is an awful campaigner.
     
  2. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    @American Brummie, I want my crow served; you got all up in my grill when I said the establishment would coalesce around Rubio, and Rubio would be competitive with Trump/Cruz.
     
  3. Smurfquake

    Smurfquake Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 8, 2000
    San Carlos, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to defend Brummie, who can be a bit over the top (shall we say), but Iowa does not equal the establishment. There was a lot of yo-yoing in 2012 when various people surged as the alternative to Romney at different times - the establishment may yet coalesce around someone other than Rubio.
     
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  4. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm on #TeamNotBaloney as well.
     
  5. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Who else is there? Jeb's campaign is a freaking zombie campaign existing only to blow its money before it dies, Kasich just isn't resonating at all with the electorate, Carson is just beyond blah, and Christie isn't generating any momentum. If there are Republicans out there who want to not get pasted in the general and don't have their head in the sand, Iowa was the Bat-signal in the sky for them to get the heck behind Rubio.
     
  6. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    #TeamNotBaloney over here, it just shows an entitled attitude of "the rules don't apply to me", and the Clinton campaign's willingness to outright and straight-up lie to the public over and over about it doesn't give me confidence either.
     
  7. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My attitude is that if there's any reasonable possibility that your leading candidate could be arrested for breaking federal law, you'd better have a good Plan B. And I don't think that the Democrats have one.

    I'm not even convinced that they've got a good Plan A. The national party's fealty to the Clintons is truly puzzling to me, and while I'd like to think that Hillary's getting beat in November would break the spell, I'm sure that it'll only be a matter of time before Chelsea starts getting pushed by a totally-not-astroturfed "groundswell of support."
     
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  8. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    To be fair, Hilary spent decades cultivating a power base in the Democratic Party, and she's linked to an immensely successful and charismatic former president in Bill. I doubt that Chelsea has made quite the same effort to create a springboard to be successful in politics. Still, it is a little surprising that no one in the party decided to jump in and pounce once Hillary showed vulnerabilities. Now Bernie will tie her in Iowa and smash her in New Hampshire; the Bernmentum will be very real at that point.
     
  9. Smurfquake

    Smurfquake Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 8, 2000
    San Carlos, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fun thread from four years ago.

    Back then, immediately after the Iowa caucuses in 2012, it looked like the anybody-but-Mitt vote was coalescing around Rick Santorum, and we all know how that turned out. The dynamics are different this time - there are three camps (nativist currently for Trump, evangelical currently for Cruz, establishment currently for Rubio) instead of two (in 2012, it was Mitt and anybody-but-Mitt) - but Rubio is one ********up away from getting replaced by Christie or Kasich as the establishment option. (Not Jeb though, that guy is toast. And I'd put Carson in the evangelical camp instead of the establishment camp.)
     
  10. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

    May 2, 2012
    Club:
    Los Angeles
    Disaster for Hillary. No-show by Trump. Marco Rubio locked up the presidency tonight.
     
  11. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Rubio did no such thing tonight. He had an unexpectedly strong showing, and that's basically it. We'll see whether that translates into Marcomentum in NH and nationally. Kind of want him to win; make the Democrats work for the victory rather than just have it handed to them with the Trump/Cruz axis' exceptional unlikeability.
     
  12. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I think Bernie's good result in bumpkin town is a strong sign that America wants to be more like Europe. Who'd have thought....
     
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  13. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Let's not get carried away. I'm hardly one to defend HRC's campaign. They screwed up. Badly. But a disaster is something that's hard to survive and maybe even fatal. A stalemate in Iowa with Sanders is neither.

    She'll lose next week, as expected. No big deal with that one.

    I'm not entirely sure what to expect from Nevada. I know Reno decently well, but I don't have a good sense of Las Vegas politics with this race. Still, at worst I think it'll be another stalemate.

    South Carolina is her must-win, and she really should win there. (Losing that one would be a real disaster.)

    Then she should do well on Super Tuesday and beyond as Sanders exhausts the states with favorable demographics for him.
     
  14. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

    May 2, 2012
    Club:
    Los Angeles
    If you think Rubio's strong showing was "unexpected", it just shows you haven't been paying attention.

    And speaking of "unlikeability", Hillary should focus on hers before worrying about Trump's.
     
  15. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

    May 2, 2012
    Club:
    Los Angeles
    The problem with Hillary's campaign was not their "screw-ups". Rather, it's the very nature of the essence of what a campaign requires that makes her most vulnerable. The more she opens her mouth, the less people like her.
     
  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Don't be so sure. Midwest liberals aren't the bumpkins you suppose. There's a long, rich radical tradition out there. Indeed, if American radical liberalism has an historical home, it's in the heartland among the farmers. This was a place with deep historical roots that primed these voters to like a guy like Sanders.
     
  17. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    What you're forgetting is that she has a history of becoming a much, much better campaigner -- and a much more sympathetic person -- when she's battling from behind.
     
  18. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

    May 2, 2012
    Club:
    Los Angeles
    ok.
     
  19. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Don't get me wrong. I'm hardly HRC's biggest fan. She's a complacent campaigner until her back is against the wall. I'm just saying she has more ability to connect with voters than many believe.

    --

    At any rate, the delegate math for Sanders is still quite daunting.

    I think it's worth book-marking this page.

    http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179

    By their measure, HRC more than exceeded her delegate target in Iowa, while Sanders badly failed to meet his.
     
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  20. Germerica

    Germerica Member+

    May 2, 2012
    Club:
    Los Angeles
    I'm well aware that Clinton's strategy is black people. A link was hardly necessary.

    Money is going to pour into Bernie's campaign, so she better get her shit together and not simply assume she's gonna coast to the nomination. We'll see if the old lady has the energy to do it yet again.
     
  21. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's astonishing how much value people place in the Iowa Caucusus. It's a 50/50 bet, at best, historically. Especially on the Republican side, recent results (Santorum, Huckabee) have been, shall we say, not terribly accurate in forecasting the eventual nominee.
     
  22. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gotcha covered.

    Although I do want to propose to you that the establishment are not going to rally around Rubio until he can demonstrate his chops in New Hampshire and South Carolina. If his 3-2-1 strategy fails to materialize, the GOP will turn to someone else. If he keeps up this lackadaisacal (sp?) pace of campaigning, they might turn to someone who will actually try harder.

    Another thing: Rubio got third but only won five counties.

    http://graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-iowa-results/

    Granted, they were the cities, but the GOP support ain't in the cities. If he's going to break out, he needs to start breaking out.
     
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  23. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They are and are always completely pissed at non-spooks, and the leading non-spook agency is State.
    And then spilled a bit of it on her blue dress.
    That's not it...he wants to replace the income tax with a national sales tax. (He calls it something else, but that's what it is.)

    How is that going to fly with retirees who spend their whole damn lives paying income tax, and now that they don't have any income, the price of everything is going to go up 19%?

    That tiny, tiny sliver of Americans who are retired and still have significant income will be happy, and Cruz is welcome to their votes. I'm sure the Democrats will happily "cash" the votes of the other 99.9%.
     
  24. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Agreed. Look at some of the people who have won the Iowa Caucus. Hell, the last two were Santorum and Huckabee.

    I think that's a view of someone not familiar with the Democratic electorate. Bernmentum is fueled by white voters. Iowa and New Hampshire are pretty close to the ideal first two states for Sanders. South Carolina is pretty much the ideal for Clinton.
    I'm trying to figure out specifically what people think she did wrong.

    Basically, Clinton seems to have won by 2 points when, months ago, I would have predicted she would win by 10. Big whoop. Am I missing something?
    Big talk from someone who went underground for months.

    In any event, yeah, it was unexpected since there are these things called polls. :rolleyes:
    Whence? I'm seriously interested in your answer.
     
  25. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Based on what I saw in Iowa. I am all for "flipping a coin" to be a candidate.

    From candidates somehow walking back things they said multiple times with multiple visual and auditory recordings. To the obscene amount of money spent, saying literally whatever pops into their head, and just not telling the truth.
     

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