The Trump Presidency Nein: Leistung, Korruption und Lugen

May this thread live on for zehn tausend Posts...or however you say posts in German. Never had the reason to speak it by the time the internet was around.

 

I came across an article on this topic that, rather than canvassing the usual subjects like Ben Shapiro etc., actually checked with conservative students at Harvard. A few took the common conservative outrage response, but as many or more others ranged from, "meh" to "Harvard made the right call."

 

That reminds me.... Sgt Shultz is buried in the same cemetery (Zentralfriedhof in Vienna, Austria) as Ludwig Von Beethoven.

 

Seriously?

The father of Colonel Klink actor Werner Klemperer was Otto Klemperer, a conductor famous in part for his Beethoven recordings in the 50s that are still well regarded

 

Would you believe it if I told you that Sgt Snorkel named his dog after him?

 

A conservative Harvard student?Is that like an independent centrist ?

 

The Fed's yield curve inversion has been three months on now; it's been a decent predictor of recessions.

Someone who knows more, could you explain why it's associated with recessions?

 

Here is the Federal reserve making it clear as mud.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econ...ing-the-slope-of-the-yield-curve-20180301.htm


Come on, did you get all that? Because I didn't.

 

Normally, obtaining a longer term loan costs more interest as the further out you go in time, the more uncertainty. When lenders demand more interest for short-term loans than long term, it tends to be because they have concerns about what might happen in near future such as an impending recession.

 

Thank you. That does help.

 

best thread title evaah. wieter so jungs!

 

But isn't a bit like saying they are concerned about a recession because people are charging more for short term loans because they are concerned about the possibility of an impending recession because people are charging more for short term loans because they are concerned...

Or am I still missing something about the source?

 

There is also investor behavior that if they believe a recession is coming, they flock to long term treasury bonds so those rates fall with all of the demand. But, they tend to flee short-term T-Bills so those rates have to rise to attract investors. Of course, there are investment banks that don't believe yield inversion predicts recessions anymore.

 

It doesn't have to do with what's being charged for loans, it has to deal with yields on short-term loans.
Creditors are loaning money to the federal government when they are buying bonds or notes in the case of short term loans. The yield is simply a function of the amount of the maturity of the bond versus how much you paid for it. When the price of a bond drops the interest rate goes up.
My only guess as to how this ties in with an upcoming recession is that people have so little confidence of being able to use their money profitably in the short-term, they put their money in long-term loans instead.

 

Yes, that is the better description.

 

It hurt my brain to put that together.

 

If you keep using the R word, you'll tempt the wrath of the thing. Call it a bagel, or whatever.

 

The Fed controls short-term rates. The Fed increases them when it is concerned that the economy might be moving too quickly, thereby stimulating inflation. An inverted yield curve indicates that investors believe that the Fed has been rather too successful at its job, not only choking off upcmoing inflation but also slowing the economy down such that the relatively low payouts of long bonds look preferable to the even lower upcoming returns on equities -- because recession is coming.

That is how I think about the matter. But it is shorthand, for a complex relationship.

 

Yet you and the others have a better understanding than anyone Trump is likely to appoint to the Fed

 

A bagel is going to happen soon.

 

Better lox in a high interest rate now.