The trend is still positive folks...

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Coyote89, Oct 17, 2017.

  1. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Let's assume that all the lies you've peddled here about the Crew are true. Sure, attendance is up not down as you claim, sponsorship dough is up not down as you claim, and so on. Let's change reality so that you are telling the truth and not lying.

    It's not Precourt's money.

    He invested $68 million in the team in 2013. Let's say it takes $10 million a year for operations, and another $5 million a year for Precourt's extra "investments." We'll be insanely generous and say player salaries are $10 million a year.

    That means if he's fronting all these costs (he's not), he's put in $168 million into Columbus Crew SC. To be profitable, that would require that revenue was $169 million or more.

    Let's say, again, that you're telling the truth, and the Crew averaged *only* 15,000 over the past four years. 15k * 34 * 4 = 2,040,000 butts in seats over four years.

    In order to be profitable, that means the average person/game revenue would need to be $82.35. Single-match tickets start at $30, and let's be generous and say the average ticket price is $40. So just on tickets alone he's made up half the revenue he needs. Let's then assume the average attendee spends just $10 on beer and food there (some order nothing, some get three beers and spill one all over my sweatshirt when we played Chivas back in 2009). We're up to $50. Let's then say the average attendee pays $5 for a jersey ($90 spread over 17 games). We've got two-thirds of your revenue covered.

    Throw in some sponsors, some TV money, and you're profitable. This ain't his money. It's the fans' money, and he's gonna steal it and take it to Austin.
     
  2. C-Rob

    C-Rob Member

    May 31, 2000
    I'm confused by some people's analysis of Reyna's words. Now granted, Reyna was pretty vague in terms of actually offering solutions, but if you read the entire quote from him, it is clear that he was talking mostly about American coaches---particularly youth coaches---being arrogant and not listening to ideas from outside experts about how to best develop players.
     
  3. Coyote89

    Coyote89 Member

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 18, 2017
    #53 Coyote89, Oct 18, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2017
    I know this is emotional, but the facts are what they are. For example...

    Only 17 of those games are at home (not 34), so the number of butts in seats is only half of what you estimated. Meanwhile, operating costs go WAY beyond player salaries. It includes coaches salaries, facility operation and maintenance, stadium workers, ticket operations, concessions, security, grounds-keeping, marketing, transportation to road games, upkeep of practice facilities, insurance costs, and unless he paid $68 million in a single lump sum up-front, there's interest on bond payments. The interest alone could exceed $5 million per year. And I'm just scratching the surface. Yet you pull $10 million out of thin air and assume that would cover it? Heck, my homeowner's association spends over $1 million per year just on landscaping.

    Meanwhile, the TV contracts are just $90 million per year for the entire league with ESPN, Fox, and Univision combined. So, each team's share is only about $4 million and I seriously doubt 100% of that is distributed to the clubs. At best, you get enough money out of the TV deal to pay for 1 DP. And until 2015, the TV deal was just $27 million for the entire league. We're in an era where the vast majority of revenue is still generated by ticket sales and local sponsorship. That's why stadium deals, location, and "business metrics" of the local market are so important.

    The bottom line is this. If it was such a great business proposition to own a MLS team in Columbus, someone would have paid a lot more than $68 million for both the team and stadium, especially in an era where MLS expansion costs $300+ million just in start-up costs alone (expansion fee, stadium, training facility, etc.). Yet the best bid they got was from a California business man who not only got the team on the cheap but demanded a relo clause. And there's a reason that was the best deal they were offered. The Crew has the lowest financial valuation of any team in the league.

    I don't share any of this to pile on Crew fans and I genuinely sympathize with any fan that could lose their team. I've been there twice before with NHL teams in ATL. My counter-argument here is just to illustrate that all leagues go through these growing pains and every league has its share of manipulative owners. It doesn't make the entire product unworthy of our interest.
     
  4. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yer right. Seventeen not thirty four. I'm still right, he's making a profit.
     
  5. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Again, you're penalizing them for their sacrifice. The reason the attendance is below potential is because they're in the cheapest stadium in the league. And they're in the cheapest stadium in the league, BECAUSE THEY HAD TO BUILD IT 20 YEARS AGO AT A TIME WHEN NOBODY ELSE WOULD!

    Precourt apparently sent consultants to Kansas City to find the secret recipe. WTF? The biggest part of the Kansas City recipe is Children's Mercy Park! Build it and they will come. If you're not going to build it, don't expect Kansas City hype in a shoestring budget 1999 stadium.

    This isn't very complicated. Using attendance data to sell your narrative is disingenuous. Because some of us remember when Columbus could bring in 18-20K per game at a time when the city was much smaller than it is today. Are we to believe that those numbers were possible 10 years ago, but somehow it's unthinkable today?

    You're latching on to a very dishonest narrative. This isn't about failure. This is about lack of effort.
     
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  6. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    Oh? Well, what about all the dollars I've spent here over the years (zero) where did that go?
     
  7. GunnerJacket

    GunnerJacket Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 18, 2003
    Gainesville, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    a) Costs vs. benefits applies to both scenarios for the team.

    That the team was worth "only" $68M was indicative of operating costs as well as the revenue potential. Just as with all the other teams, if PSV wishes to increase revenues they'll have to (surprise surprise!) increase costs. The owners spending so much money are doing so because they're not only paying into the system but having to make all the first-time investments that Columbus has experienced. So while the value seems low, the potential costs for improvements at Columbus are the same or lower compared to new franchises. Or vs relocation, where every physical asset will need to be once again built/acquired.

    b) Saying PSV was the best deal is somewhat presumptuous. It was taken vs. a comparable local bid under the guise of bringing new outside investment to the community, which is generally favorable or re-circulation of local dollars. It was also done knowing the stadium would be a near-term issue, so basically PSV paid a discounted rate compared to an expansion team in recognition of the market and the pending stadium investment but in exchange inherited a fully operating business with immediate revenue returns.
     
  8. GunnerJacket

    GunnerJacket Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 18, 2003
    Gainesville, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    *looks at liquor cabinet*

    Research and development.
     
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  9. GunnerJacket

    GunnerJacket Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 18, 2003
    Gainesville, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I've shared another quip on this point in a different thread as this upward trend bares celebrating. The one caveat to your point, though, and the reason why owners don't necessarily celebrate the achievement is the notion that the relative cost of competing has gone up. So while 15-18k means your team is now on the cusp of baseline financial self-sufficiency, there are now a handful of clubs able to make still more and thus push the price for a competitive roster ever higher. As a rule, anyway.

    But, yes, this aspect is a great testament to the success of MLS.
     
  10. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He knows this. He knows that there is more into it than just the team value. He doesn't care because Blank makes concessions cheap.
     
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  11. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member+

    Apr 27, 2004
    I don't know wtf we are talking about here, but THIS is the reality:


    Soccer in this country is on the verge of total collapse.
     
  12. Zoidberg

    Zoidberg Member+

    Jun 23, 2006
    I had karma bire me on the ass, deservedly so, for a post I made abount Honduras last week. Never to old to learn, and I did.

    I will say however that the net, in times like these, truly reinforces everything I think about it....and the folks who post the most.

    Claudio was 100 percent right, and I belive he was talking about our coaching and the folks in charge. I have also been saying this for a several years. The game has outgrown the people in charge and we lack the knowledge base across the board. We have entrenched people who can act like they do because they are entrenched! Folks say people do their best work when they feel secure in their jobs, of course when they feel to secure they become stagnant, arrogant, complacent and can make up whatever agenda they want.
    We are there right now, and I don't think we will see much change at the USSF level.

    Love the shot at the media. I was most angry about TT, Lalas, the FN loser Wahl acting all angry.....they are part of the problem!!!!! In a real media world non eof them would have jobs! Waldo wants pro/rel cause it's cool? If there was pro/rel in the media he would be calling an U12 game somewhere fro crying out loud.

    It's pure FIFA right now. Sunil was so FIFA after that match. Reeked of it. I've said it before...maybe no monetary corruption, but mental corruption through and through. They have even fooled themselves in many ways I wuld wager.

    Dark times but the typical over reactions here have sobered me up. Don't panic, and grow up folks.

    NASL dying? Was it ever alive? Stop it. A pimple on the games a** if we are honest.
    Columbus issue. Sad....but not shocking at all. Very easy to see, and as the league matures moving markets was an obvious outcome....just like in the history of all of our other leagues.

    I have no idea what 'anchorman club" is.

    The game is "on the verge of collapse"?

    Man, I pray I am never in a foxhole with any of you guys. Holy crap. The net.....where uber emotion come to roost. I am sure CR could spot plenty of arrrogance and obnoxiousness here. You guys need to get a FN life.

    At least this has made mine easier. I can do real things instead of spending more time in this sewer.
     
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  13. Len

    Len Member+

    Club: Dallas Tornado
    Jan 18, 1999
    Everywhere and Nowhere.....I'm the wind, baby.
    Excellent post! But this, alone, deserves its own rep.

    EDIT: And what is "Anchorman Club"?
     
  14. Coyote89

    Coyote89 Member

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 18, 2017
    C'mon people. I'm a "shill," I'm a "liar," I'm a newbie who couldn't possibly know what I'm talking about, or I simply don't care?

    I'm a deeply grateful soccer fan and former player who has been waiting patiently for nearly 50 years to finally have a team of my own. I bring rational, factual arguments to the table, insult no one, support my team with absolutely no trash-talk or bravado whatsoever, and genuinely care about the future of MLS and US Soccer.

    More importantly, I'm not the one bashing. The title of this thread, started by me, is "The Trend is Still Positive Folks." Is it ok to still enjoy the sport or have any sense of optimism, or must we all show up angry and miserable with torches and pitchforks?
     
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  15. C-Rob

    C-Rob Member

    May 31, 2000
    The new NASL team came out with their name and logo. It is San Diego 1904 FC.

    The 19 refers to the fact that S is the 19th letter in the alphabet and D is the 4th. So, yeah. 1904. This reference was apparently made famous by the movie Anchorman (I've never seen it, as I think Will Ferrell's movies suck).

    Oh, and to hurt your eyes and brain like it hurt mine and some others over on the NASL board, here is their logo:

    [​IMG]
     
  16. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We didn't qualify for the Men's World Cup, and the league's first team is being moved against the wishes of an entire league of fans.

    ...What, aside from nice concessions in Atlanta, is there to be excited about?
     
  17. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This isn't right at all.

    In a 32 team World Cup field, some good teams miss out sometimes. The USSF head took too long to fire a bad coach. The new one made one too many mistakes, and unlike CR or Mexico the last couple cycles, the team wasn't bailed out by a usual rival. But it's a good chance for a change of leadership. And the strength of the Central American teams was often players currently in the US! Yes, it's bad. But it's not the disaster like missing out in 2002 would've been.

    If NASL folds before next year, there will still be as many pro soccer teams in the country because MLS is adding one, USL's adding three, and a couple NASL refugees will go to USL as well. And our polite neighbors are adding an entire league, so that will provide some soccer jobs for Americans, too. If it means missing out on some of the idiocy of da Silva or the Cosmos organization, it's even a step forward.

    The Precourt mess exists because MLS is valuable enough that a venture capitalist saw significant missing value in the league's most distressed franchise that would be easy to exploit. Shocking, but sometimes growth and development is uneven. (And I think it could be worth as much where it is, but that would require effort Precourt is not interested in. He's selfish enough to give the league a black eye if he thinks it's a couple million more in his pocket.)

    I have no idea why anyone should care about Anchorman Club.

    Simply put, this is not the darkest timeline. It will be okay.
     
  18. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Heath Ledger as The Joker.

    I miss having you on ignore, but I had to take you off to see your thread about Columbus moving.
    he must mean LAFC, which is partly owned by Will “Ron Burgundy” Ferrell.
     
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  19. Zoidberg

    Zoidberg Member+

    Jun 23, 2006
    All I know is that true character Is shown when things are real tough. Never a truer observation was made in life.

    I’m no rah rah guy, but there are a bunch of people here showing exactly who and what they are....and it isn’t much.

    That goes for adults and kids....it is a characteristic revealed at young ages.

    Buck up, use your FN brain, and stop acting like fearful, ignorant, cowardly fools.

    It is a bad situation....change is needed, but the end of the world garbage is truly for the pathetic.
     
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  20. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member+

    Apr 27, 2004
    All the "change is coming, this is for the better people" need to grow up. This is the real world. Things don't get better!!! When things go wrong there is a price to pay. And the price stacks up and stacks up and stacks up and you will never ever pay off that debt. That is where the state of soccer is in this country: buried under crippling debt that it will NEVER get out of! Game. Over.
     
  21. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm crashing against Poe's Law here. Is this serious, or parody? I don't know if my response should be :rolleyes::mad::ROFLMAO: or ;):thumbsup::ROFLMAO:.
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I don't think the possible demise of the NASL is a bad thing.
     
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  23. scheck

    scheck Member

    Mar 13, 2007
    Denver
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In most worried that the culture of soccer on the field will not change because our sports business culture wont allow it to.

    If players are too comfortable, then get used to it, because we arent going to see these owners and their subordinates Gulati and Garber implement pro/rel.

    If pay to play is a problem, good luck trying to convince these owners that they need to invest in a lot more academies not just in their markets, but in many others, too.

    If you want to blame the people of Columbus for not building the club, how can you do that in the same breath as telling us it's precourt's club to do with as he pleases?

    We wont make quick progress in issues like this until you open up the soccer pyramid and allow success on the field to be the primary determinant of success period. You can hear the disconnect in Reyna's quote where he says we arent progressing as fast as we are growing.

    Profit is the main goal of this system, and on the field growth is secondary. Thats not to say we wont get better, but the system is set up to give us less than our best from the very start, and there are a thousand other countries who dont have to operate with that ball and chain.
     
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  24. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So... spending less on development will lead to more of it. Got it.
     
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  25. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Arthur Blank isn't going to live forever, nor will the shiny new stadium. The Georgia Dome barely lasted two decades. Blank and his Mercedes palace should be so lucky. The clock is already ticking on relocating Atlanta.[/QUOTE]
     

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