How do we look at xG against our defense? I'm pretty sure our actual goals against will be greater than expected goals against at this point. Teams don't seem to take a ton of chances against us, but when they do, they score, multiple times.... in the 90th minute.
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/team-xg-2018/ Collectively we have 37 goals on 31.4 xG, and 36 goals against, on 38.4 expected goals against. The Matt Turner effect (which was stronger earlier in the season).
You can use keeper xg (because matt turner is the only ne keeper so far just look at his stats). The stat you want is how many goals chances the revs have allowed should have produced (41.87 goals). The fact that turner has only allowed 36 means he is very good! I compiled a list of team xg based on gk (some teams used multiple gk, so i added them) and here are the rankings. The number in parentheses is how much better (negative numbers) or worse the gk's have made a team, for guys doing a great job i listed their name (they were generally the only keeper who played for their team): 1- POR: 26.50 (-1.50) 2- ATL: 26.81 (+1.19) 3- NYRB: 27.46 (-5.46, ROBLES) 4- NYCFC: 28.52 (+1.48) 5- CLB: 28.91 (+1.09) 6- DCU*: 29.61 (+7.39) 7- SKC: 31.65 (-1.65) 8- FCD: 33.58 (-4.66) 9- SEA: 35.59 (-9.59, FREI) 10- HOU: 36.00 (-2.00) 11- PHI: 36.12 (+2.88) 12- VAN: 36.15 (+7.85) 13- COL: 37.05 (-1.05) 14- LAFC: 38.60 (+0.40) 15- LAG: 39.41 (-1.41) 16- SJE: 39.90 (+3.10) 17- TOR: 40.47 (+3.53) 18- NER: 41.87 (-5.87, TURNER) 19- RSL: 46.98 (-5.98, RIMANDO) 20- MTL: 48.25 (-9.25, BUSH) 21- CHI: 48.79 (+0.21) 22- MIN: 50.13 (-3.13) 23- ORL: 51.42 (+3.58) The star for DC is because theyve played 4 fewer games than everyone else. Long story short the revs statistically have the 18th worst defense, and the 4th best gk propping it up.
Thats weird, the numbers dont agree at all https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/keeper-xg-2018/ That said, i didnt want to use a team stat because that would give team values, as opposed to isolating for field players
The difference is because of the difference between team xG and player xG. I believe the value for team xG for a single attacking move will be the highest xG shot within that move, whereas rebounds can create "additional" xG for individual players. When evaluating a keeper, you want to look at all shots they faced, so you use all the shots. When looking at a team's performance, you don't want to load up the xG for that team if they repeatedly kick the ball into the goalie's chest in the same attacking move - an attacking move can only result in a maximum of one goal. So if Turner stands on his head and makes 3 saves in 2 seconds, that might look like a total of 1 expected TEAM goal but (assuming each shot was .8 xG), a total of 2.4 expected PLAYER goals that he faced.
Are you recommending they fill the roster with $150K players? How about they get $450K players that produce at a $450K pace? Or spend $1M to get an even better player? Your first paragraph seemed headed that way but then you seemed to end with a recommendation to go cheap.
Belichick explains why the 90th roster spot is empty Completely not revs related but this article gave me a little chuckle. The pats have an empty roster spot (#90) and journalists asked Belichick about it and he actually answered them with some elaboration. Maybe this is the same logic as the revs having many open spots?
Thats a good point i guess, thanks for explaining it to me! I'm not sure i agree that limiting xg for a given attacking move to 1 is good for getting the full picture of a team's attacking or defending ability, but i suppose its a standard definition none the less
Of course, you know as well as I do, that only 53 make the roster anyway. I only wish the Revs would actually have anything resembling a full roster while in pre-season.
No, I'm saying that some of the $450k guys aren't giving them any more than what you might get from a $150k guy. Their high-end guys need to be playing like high-end players, and we haven't seen a lot of that. If you look at the years we were higher in salary, that was the Jones era, and the bump was pretty much because of him. When he left, they didn't spend the money on other players. They did spend somewhat, but it was always on the wrong kind of guys, no needle-movers or truly elite players. As for the Pats and their roster, sure it makes sense that in a more specialized sport, they'd designate certain numbers of spots for offense, defense, and breakdowns within those, plus a kicker and a punter. In baseball, there is often discussion on whether to have 9 or 10 pitchers on the 25-man roster, or have another position player instead. In soccer, there are more guys who can fit into different roles, other than keeper, so there is less of an excuse to have so many spots open. I wish we had reporters who would ask those kinds of questions. But unlike Belichick, who actually gives a reasonable explanation, Burns would either channel Bruce Arena, where you obviously don't know what's really going on inside the org, and it isn't just a matter of bringing in this guy or that guy to magically make the team better, or just dismiss the question entirely with a "no comment."
Jay Heaps hires his old buddy Tom Soehn as Birmingham Legion FC's first head coach... https://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/08/birmingham_legion_fc_hires_tom.html
Interesting that the wording of the release minimizes his assistant coach job with New England and under Heaps....
I'm very interested to see how this works out. Lets focus on the season first, but the Revs should try to have B'ham out for a friendly this off season.
Here's the latest version of this search string I use for Twitter that casts the net wider than just the #NERevs hashtag -- but, it also keeps out some stuff I don't need to see in the search results (e.g., there have been flareups of eMLS and other "gaming" related posts riding on the hashtag in the last year or two - I don't want to read about that aspect.). Enjoy, use wisely: -from:NERevolutionPC AND -from:NewEnglandApp AND -from:CHNeRevolution AND -from:JKO1707 AND -"eMLS" AND (from:revsprez OR from:nerevolution OR @revsprez OR @NERevolution OR "New England Revolution" OR "ne revolution" OR #NERevs)
Some stats of interest from https://twitter.com/WhoScored Thanks to https://twitter.com/SeanLDonahue for highlighting these. re: crossing According to @WhoScored, passing is a weakness for each of Bye/Farrell/Somi. Crossing is a weakness for Bye and Farrell. It's no surprise the #NERevs offense is predictable when they don't have true wingers and the fullbacks they rely on to provide width aren't threats to cross— Sean Donahue (@SeanLDonahue) August 21, 2018 The interesting thing is under Friedel, the #NERevs are actually attempting a lot more crosses. The team is 3rd in #MLS in attempts at 18.9 per game. The problem is their accuracy ranks 20th in the league at 22.22%.— Sean Donahue (@SeanLDonahue) August 21, 2018 re: short passes One more #NERevs stat of note: the team attempts the second fewest short passes per game in #MLS at 313, but still manages the second most inaccurate short passes per game at 65. If you're looking for areas where this team needs improvement, they're just about everywhere.— Sean Donahue (@SeanLDonahue) August 21, 2018 re: touches/possession The #NERevs currently rank 2nd in #MLS in unsuccessful touches with 16.3 per game and 1st in times dispossessed with 13.6 per game (#2 is a full 1.4 lower). In case it wasn't clear, these are not categories you want to be leading.— Sean Donahue (@SeanLDonahue) August 21, 2018 re: defending Another not so fun stat for the #NERevs defense: they are 2nd in the league in times dribbled past per game at 11.1. Only #MNUFC's defense ranks worse in that category (11.5). #MLS— Sean Donahue (@SeanLDonahue) August 21, 2018
A lot of those are tough stats but a few are forgivable, for example the full back passing stats. Yes you want to have modern do everything fullbacks, but in mls ill settle for ones who are defensively responsible. Oh wait, the defenders consistently are dribbled past, especially farrell and delamea (i remember bye getting burned a lot early in the season but cant think of as many recent examples) The one that has bothered me all season is the inaccurate short passing stat. Its why im ok seeing caldwell and rowe ride the pine, both struggle to reliably complete simple short passes and that just isnt acceptable for professional soccer players, especially in the midfield. Unsuccessful touches/first time dispossessed? Caldwell, and rowe strike me as examples again. Farrell wants accountable players, so maybe he should stop playing the ones who routinely fall into these categories
Caldwell is #22 in the league in passing accuracy. I think that is pretty good. I've always thought that was one of his strengths. Rowe on the other hand, I agree with you.
Its odd to read that, because by the eye test i feel like he is frequently the weak link on passes made in the attacking 3rd. But thats what we have stats for, to overcome things you "feel" like. Thanks for pointing that out
Austin, Texas Gets a Major League Soccer Deal While Columbus, Ohio Gets Stiffed Jason Notte Forbes.com Interesting article for some of the details on the deal.
Misleading headline if there ever was one. It sounds like a done deal, but there is a long way to go before the fat lady sings. If you've been following the "Crew to Austin" thread in MLS N/A, there are a lot of issues with the Austin site, and Precourt's promises are as hollow as a dead oak tree. Even if they broke ground now, the Austin team would have to find somewhere else to play for a couple of years. Meanwhile, the Modell Law says they must offer local buyers a chance to buy the team. Details are sketchy, but Columbus fans say there are at least 2 groups interested in buying the team and keeping it in C-bus. This thing is far from over.