The "Thoughts That Don't Require Their Own Thread" Thread XIII

Discussion in 'New England Revolution' started by A Casual Fan, Mar 28, 2018.

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  1. A Casual Fan

    A Casual Fan Member+

    Mar 22, 2000
    When they move to STL, what will they be called?
     
  2. REV IT UP

    REV IT UP Member

    New England Revolution
    United States
    Jul 12, 2004
    San Francisco
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How do we look at xG against our defense? I'm pretty sure our actual goals against will be greater than expected goals against at this point. Teams don't seem to take a ton of chances against us, but when they do, they score, multiple times.... in the 90th minute.
     
  3. a517dogg

    a517dogg Member+

    Oct 30, 2005
    Rochester, NY
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/team-xg-2018/

    Collectively we have 37 goals on 31.4 xG, and 36 goals against, on 38.4 expected goals against. The Matt Turner effect (which was stronger earlier in the season).
     
  4. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    You can use keeper xg (because matt turner is the only ne keeper so far just look at his stats). The stat you want is how many goals chances the revs have allowed should have produced (41.87 goals). The fact that turner has only allowed 36 means he is very good! I compiled a list of team xg based on gk (some teams used multiple gk, so i added them) and here are the rankings. The number in parentheses is how much better (negative numbers) or worse the gk's have made a team, for guys doing a great job i listed their name (they were generally the only keeper who played for their team):

    1- POR: 26.50 (-1.50)
    2- ATL: 26.81 (+1.19)
    3- NYRB: 27.46 (-5.46, ROBLES)
    4- NYCFC: 28.52 (+1.48)
    5- CLB: 28.91 (+1.09)
    6- DCU*: 29.61 (+7.39)
    7- SKC: 31.65 (-1.65)
    8- FCD: 33.58 (-4.66)
    9- SEA: 35.59 (-9.59, FREI)
    10- HOU: 36.00 (-2.00)
    11- PHI: 36.12 (+2.88)
    12- VAN: 36.15 (+7.85)
    13- COL: 37.05 (-1.05)
    14- LAFC: 38.60 (+0.40)
    15- LAG: 39.41 (-1.41)
    16- SJE: 39.90 (+3.10)
    17- TOR: 40.47 (+3.53)
    18- NER: 41.87 (-5.87, TURNER)
    19- RSL: 46.98 (-5.98, RIMANDO)
    20- MTL: 48.25 (-9.25, BUSH)
    21- CHI: 48.79 (+0.21)
    22- MIN: 50.13 (-3.13)
    23- ORL: 51.42 (+3.58)

    The star for DC is because theyve played 4 fewer games than everyone else. Long story short the revs statistically have the 18th worst defense, and the 4th best gk propping it up.
     
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  5. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    #155 tsb11, Aug 15, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2018
  6. a517dogg

    a517dogg Member+

    Oct 30, 2005
    Rochester, NY
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    The difference is because of the difference between team xG and player xG. I believe the value for team xG for a single attacking move will be the highest xG shot within that move, whereas rebounds can create "additional" xG for individual players.

    When evaluating a keeper, you want to look at all shots they faced, so you use all the shots. When looking at a team's performance, you don't want to load up the xG for that team if they repeatedly kick the ball into the goalie's chest in the same attacking move - an attacking move can only result in a maximum of one goal. So if Turner stands on his head and makes 3 saves in 2 seconds, that might look like a total of 1 expected TEAM goal but (assuming each shot was .8 xG), a total of 2.4 expected PLAYER goals that he faced.
     
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  7. rkane1226

    rkane1226 Member+

    Apr 9, 2000
    Club:
    Stade Brestois 29
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are you recommending they fill the roster with $150K players? How about they get $450K players that produce at a $450K pace? Or spend $1M to get an even better player? Your first paragraph seemed headed that way but then you seemed to end with a recommendation to go cheap.
     
  8. RevsLiverpool

    RevsLiverpool Member+

    Nov 12, 2005
    Boston
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Belichick explains why the 90th roster spot is empty

    Completely not revs related but this article gave me a little chuckle. The pats have an empty roster spot (#90) and journalists asked Belichick about it and he actually answered them with some elaboration.

    Maybe this is the same logic as the revs having many open spots?
     
  9. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    Thats a good point i guess, thanks for explaining it to me! I'm not sure i agree that limiting xg for a given attacking move to 1 is good for getting the full picture of a team's attacking or defending ability, but i suppose its a standard definition none the less
     
  10. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course, you know as well as I do, that only 53 make the roster anyway. I only wish the Revs would actually have anything resembling a full roster while in pre-season.
     
  11. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, I'm saying that some of the $450k guys aren't giving them any more than what you might get from a $150k guy. Their high-end guys need to be playing like high-end players, and we haven't seen a lot of that. If you look at the years we were higher in salary, that was the Jones era, and the bump was pretty much because of him. When he left, they didn't spend the money on other players. They did spend somewhat, but it was always on the wrong kind of guys, no needle-movers or truly elite players.

    As for the Pats and their roster, sure it makes sense that in a more specialized sport, they'd designate certain numbers of spots for offense, defense, and breakdowns within those, plus a kicker and a punter. In baseball, there is often discussion on whether to have 9 or 10 pitchers on the 25-man roster, or have another position player instead. In soccer, there are more guys who can fit into different roles, other than keeper, so there is less of an excuse to have so many spots open. I wish we had reporters who would ask those kinds of questions. But unlike Belichick, who actually gives a reasonable explanation, Burns would either channel Bruce Arena, where you obviously don't know what's really going on inside the org, and it isn't just a matter of bringing in this guy or that guy to magically make the team better, or just dismiss the question entirely with a "no comment."
     
  12. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  13. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  14. dncm

    dncm Member+

    Apr 22, 2003
    Boston
  15. Sachem07

    Sachem07 Member

    Mar 28, 2009
    Quincy
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    I'm very interested to see how this works out. Lets focus on the season first, but the Revs should try to have B'ham out for a friendly this off season.
     
  16. TOAzer

    TOAzer Member+

    The Man With No Club
    May 29, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Rebs
     
  17. a517dogg

    a517dogg Member+

    Oct 30, 2005
    Rochester, NY
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    In the River City? The Rivs.
     
  18. A Casual Fan

    A Casual Fan Member+

    Mar 22, 2000
    Here's the latest version of this search string I use for Twitter that casts the net wider than just the #NERevs hashtag -- but, it also keeps out some stuff I don't need to see in the search results (e.g., there have been flareups of eMLS and other "gaming" related posts riding on the hashtag in the last year or two - I don't want to read about that aspect.).

    Enjoy, use wisely:
    -from:NERevolutionPC AND -from:NewEnglandApp AND -from:CHNeRevolution AND -from:JKO1707 AND -"eMLS" AND (from:revsprez OR from:nerevolution OR @revsprez OR @NERevolution OR "New England Revolution" OR "ne revolution" OR #NERevs)
     
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  19. TOAzer

    TOAzer Member+

    The Man With No Club
    May 29, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If they were sent down the River then it could be The Shivs....
     
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  20. A Casual Fan

    A Casual Fan Member+

    Mar 22, 2000
    Some stats of interest from
    https://twitter.com/WhoScored
    Thanks to
    https://twitter.com/SeanLDonahue
    for highlighting these.

    re: crossing



    re: short passes


    re: touches/possession


    re: defending
     
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  21. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    A lot of those are tough stats but a few are forgivable, for example the full back passing stats. Yes you want to have modern do everything fullbacks, but in mls ill settle for ones who are defensively responsible. Oh wait, the defenders consistently are dribbled past, especially farrell and delamea (i remember bye getting burned a lot early in the season but cant think of as many recent examples)

    The one that has bothered me all season is the inaccurate short passing stat. Its why im ok seeing caldwell and rowe ride the pine, both struggle to reliably complete simple short passes and that just isnt acceptable for professional soccer players, especially in the midfield. Unsuccessful touches/first time dispossessed? Caldwell, and rowe strike me as examples again.

    Farrell wants accountable players, so maybe he should stop playing the ones who routinely fall into these categories
     
  22. teskicks

    teskicks Member+

    New England Revolution
    United States
    Jan 14, 2002
    Wrentham, MA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Caldwell is #22 in the league in passing accuracy. I think that is pretty good. I've always thought that was one of his strengths. Rowe on the other hand, I agree with you.
     
  23. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    Its odd to read that, because by the eye test i feel like he is frequently the weak link on passes made in the attacking 3rd. But thats what we have stats for, to overcome things you "feel" like. Thanks for pointing that out
     
  24. VTSoccerFan

    VTSoccerFan Member+

    New England Revolution, Vermont Catamounts, NCFC
    United States
    Jun 28, 2002
    Cary, NC
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    NFLPatriot repped this.
  25. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Misleading headline if there ever was one. It sounds like a done deal, but there is a long way to go before the fat lady sings. If you've been following the "Crew to Austin" thread in MLS N/A, there are a lot of issues with the Austin site, and Precourt's promises are as hollow as a dead oak tree. Even if they broke ground now, the Austin team would have to find somewhere else to play for a couple of years. Meanwhile, the Modell Law says they must offer local buyers a chance to buy the team. Details are sketchy, but Columbus fans say there are at least 2 groups interested in buying the team and keeping it in C-bus.

    This thing is far from over.
     

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