If the democratic vote coalesces around one candidate and he/she makes it into a runoff against Duke, LA could actually be a pickup for the dems. Something nobody was predicting until now, to be sure.
Bump If Democrats win the toss ups that 270 to win have for 2020, we could end up with a 50/50 Senate, and the party that wins the white house will have the tie breaking vote (unless there are party switches). https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/
538 with a story on the small state advantage Republicans have in the Senate and how it did not used to be this way. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...tes-it-just-didnt-help-republicans-until-now/
Alaska? Yes, Alaska: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ir0a6eAHT04YSudrwp2AT-SC71wvmCqe/view Sullivan's only got a 39% approval rate and is running even at 43%/43% against Gross. This would be a spectacular get for Team Blue (even though Gross is -- smartly, IMO -- running as an independent). Run up the score!
My son is 20; I think he voted in 2018 but I'm not positive. Anyway, he's gotten 2 pieces of anti-Thom Tillis mail already. Both pieces appeal to him as a black male. It's interesting that the mail is so micro-targeted. It's even more interesting that he got it this early; if he voted in 2018, he voted early because he was enrolled at UNC-Charlotte at the time.
I am seriously skeptical that debates on CNN would do much to change the trajectory of those races. Desperate times call for desperate measures. . Inbox today: Republican Sens. Gardner (CO) Tillis (NC) and McSally (AZ) called for nationally-televised Senate debates on CNN— James Arkin (@JamesArkin) September 1, 2020
Do people nationwide care when Congresspeople speak on TV in general? I don't think people nationwide would watch Senate debates, but a highlight and discussion show about several Senate races could get viewers. If candidates in many of CO, GA (regular, the special election has a jungle primary with a ton of candidates so there can't be a one-on-one debate), ME, AZ, IA, NC, TX, AK, SC, MI, KS, and AL agreed to a schedule to have three nights that each have three debates simultaneously or in consecutive hours on TV only within each state followed by a discussion of the three debates that national TV could advertise in advance, it could get viewers. Furthermore, candidates could make statements about somebody or something that could influence voters around the country if their statements were heard or read nationwide. Ed Markey defeated Joe Kennedy III in Massachusetts' Senate primary. New Hampshire and Rhode Island on Tuesday September 8 and Delaware on September 15 are the last Senate primaries before Election Day. Georgia's special election and Louisiana will have jungle primaries on Election Day, with runoffs if nobody gets a majority. Nobody will get a majority in Georgia's special election. Georgia's regular election also requires a majority, but Republican incumbent David Perdue, Democrat Jon Ossoff, and Libertarian Shane Hazel are the only candidates. If Perdue and Ossoff is close there might not be a majority, but a majority is possible. Georgia has Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler, five other Republicans, eight Democrats, one Green, one Libertarian, and five Independents, for a total of 21. Louisiana has Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, one other Republican, five Democrats, one Libertarian, and seven Independents, for a total of fifteen. Democrat Adrian Perkins is the only candidate other than Cassidy with a Wikipedia page, which I use to guess how well-known candidates are. If Republican Dustin Murphy doesn't get many votes, Cassidy could win a majority on Election Day to avoid a runoff.
Ouch Marta.... Fox News Senate PollArizona: Mark Kelly (D) 56 (+17)Martha McSally (R-inc) 39%North Carolina: Cal Cunningham (D) 48% (+6)Thom Tillis (R-inc) 42%— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 2, 2020
Kelly beating up McSally is why I think AZ is a lock for Biden. There isn't a lot of cross ballot voting nowadays...
Totally. 17 pts is brutal. I guess the NRSC may be looking at abandoning McSally at this point. They don't haver a lot of money to waste on her. She is cooked. Actually, 6 pts for Cal is nice as well. Since Cooper will win Governor race, It will be a strong coattail from the D side of the ticket in NC. Good news for Joe.
New NC senate poll has it tied. But the poll has Trump +2, which is out of range with other polls. So that poll has a GOP lean. As we learned in 2016, that doesn't mean they're wrong. They might have a better handle on who will vote.
Cory is under 40%. For an incumbent that is abysmal. A new Morning Consult poll in Colorado finds John Hickenlooper (D) leading Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 39%. In the presidential race, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump, 51% to 41%.
Yeah, that is a tough poll. Haven't most had Cunningham up 3-6 points? I could easily see Cal win here and Biden lose, much like what happened in 2016 with Cooper.
This look like an outlier. First time I have seen Tillis at 45. He barely cracked 40 in most polls. He is shitty candidate to say the least. Having said that, the better Cooper and Cal's chances are, it is likely Biden will win NC as well. Cross tab voting in this environment is going to be difficult.
Good luck with that message Thom Tillis! Politico: “Thom Tillis has struggled to mollify conservatives in North Carolina since joining the Senate six years ago. But standing onstage and addressing volunteers in a county Republican headquarters here this week, he had a message for any base voters still wary of him: You may not love me, but I guarantee you’d hate Chuck Schumer running the Senate.”
More trouble for Tillis. He has been the beneficiary of DeJoy contributions shenanigans. That dude is in serious shit. Senator Thom Tillis linked to new scandal forcing postmaster general's staff to donate to his campaign: reporthttps://t.co/ksrq0qcLDZ— Raw Story (@RawStory) September 6, 2020
oh good, maybe that will even out his opponent sending texts to a woman not his wife saying she was on his “to do” list. https://amp.fresnobee.com/news/nation-world/national/article246191610.html?__twitter_impression=true For ********s sake.
*sigh* Yup.. Tillis might have just gotten saved because his opponent couldn’t keep it in his pants...
And by "it" you mean his cell phone. I mean, it's just sexting. Not even sex. Talk about anti-climactic. (See wut I did there?)
It does not appear to be another "Anthony Wiener Situation," at least. But really, how can people be so stupid?