Uh, guys, why doesn't everyone here just man up and stop worrying about pots and seeds and groups, etc. Let's face our fate like warriors, ready to take on the world's best. Just draw, already! WTF?!? Ok, let's re-draw until we get this right.
I think any manager drawing the USA will show his team videoes of the USA-Brazil and USA-Spain matches in the Confed Cup and will be thinking about ways of breaking down that kind of defrensive play.
Can someone smarter than I please recast the "possibility of a USA seeding" analysis in light of the Euro draw? http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=685887&sec=worldcup2010&cc=5901 Much obliged.
It has virtually no meaning for us. Unless they change the way seeding is done.........even if all of those top nations fail to make it (France, Portugal, Russia, etc.)....we're still not getting a seed. We're behind too many teams. If the WC started without those Euro teams we'd still be behind: Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, and the Netherlands. Then South Africa is the 8th seed. If people want the US to be seeded, they have to hope that FIFA changes to different method of calculation.
It's an interesting situation. Most of what I've read thinks that FIFA views AFC/Oceania as one Federation, so it's a group of 5 no matter what. Now if Costa Rica win, then life gets funny for FIFA. At that point, Edgar (who knows as much about this process as anyone out there) was speculating that the USA would be broken out into the CAF+CONMEBOL+USA pot. That would be the ULTIMATE outcome-- a 1-in-3 chance of drawing the host and a GUARANTEED AFC team in our group. Personally, I'd take that over a seed. By the way, here's how he sees the pots right now, assuming an Uruguay win. He's predicting the "we get screwed" setup. Pot 1 (seeded teams): Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2 (rest of UEFA): Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland Pot 3 (AFC + CONCACAF): Australia, Bahrain, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA Pot 4 (CAF + rest of CONMEBOL): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia, Uruguay
Either 4 or 8 years ago, they had special pots to deal with something (maybe the extra Euro team?), so I bet they do it again. I can see them simply making two pots of 8 (seeds and euros) and then having multiple smaller pots. So the celebrity drawers will pull the seeds and assign the euros, and then go to pot C which will have all 16 remaining teams. Then based on which team is drawn, the person will then have to draw the 4th team from a pot guarenteed not to have another team from that confederation. Or simply draw from the same pot and dismiss any team pulled that is from the same Fed. In any event, the best outcome for the US will be for CR and Bahrain to win the playoffs. That way their is no easy scenario.
Grin, we are not going to get any seeding. If we do well next June, things might improve for '10. The way the draw occurred today for the Euro playoffs probably hurt our chances a tad. If two of the powers, say France and Portugal, had squared off if there had been a random draw that might have helped us a bit. The seeded draw increases the likelihood that the best teams will go through. Best teams go through and that might hurt our chances and certainly that is a subjective observation.
Does anyone know when they will announce HOW the draw will be conducted Dec 4th? IE, who goes in which pot.
I agree with the idea that even if New Zealand beat Bahrain, they'll be grouped with the AFC...If Costa Rica wins, I could see this: Pot 1 (seeded teams): Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2 (rest of UEFA): Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland Pot 3 (CAF + AFC): Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Bahrain/New Zealand, Australia, Cameroon, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana Tunisia***(yes I know 10 teams) Pot 4 (CONCACAF + Remaining CONMEBOL): USA, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica, Chile, Paraguay, plus two teams that don't get placed from Pot 3. I can't remember if this happened for the draw in Germany or Korea/Japan, but there was a pot with more than eight teams, with remaining teams going to the fourth pot and were unable to be drawn into groups where there was already a team from their continent. Depending on who's left over from Pot 3, we could have a decent draw from this scenario.
Similar to the Argentina-Netherlands-Ivory Coast-Serbia group from the last world cup. Actually, Serbia was playing extremely well going into that 2006WC. Then they got seriously abused. Here's the thing. From the point of view of the rest of the world...........no group with the US in it can be the group of death. By definition
(FWIW, I must spread rep before repping you again, it seems.) This post covers it all: The importance of the draw... therefore, The importance of how the pots are set up... therefore, Why U.S. fans must hold their noses and ignore the odds and root for CRC against URU. If CONCACAF and AFC end up grouped together, meaning we face either an African team or CONMEBOL second tier AS WELL AS a seed AND a second-tier EURO, our already Davies-less/possibly Gooch-less hill gets a whole lot higher.
I'm not arguing with you as I know that's not your POV, but that's silly. Even if you don't take us to be a World Power, just look at who else is placed in our pot. Mexico? Australia? South Korea? Japan? North Korea? Honduras? Costa Rica? Is the point clear? There are no nations Argentina or in our pot, and a every group gets one of us. Are we really the nation out of that pot that everybody else (talking about the manager and the players, not the clueless fan base) really would want to draw? Last WC's group C was the hardest group since 1994 when I began seriously following the sport, in my opinion. Our group E would've been the group of death in most tournaments, but last time around there was that one group that could be considered even tougher. Except that Serbia rolled over and died, making it a bit easier on the other three. A Brazil-Netherlands-USA-Ivory Coast group this time around would probably be even a bit tougher. That's probably the single most difficult theoretical group (not just for the US, but for anyone) that could possibly be drawn. The only thing that could arguably make it even tougher would be to substitute us for Mexico or Australia, and those would be very arguable.
I can think of a tougher group. Brazil-Netherlands-Mexico-Ivory Coast, or even as the above poster suggested Brazil-Netherlands-Australia-Ivory Coast. Why almost everyone on these boards ignores Mexico's pedigree is completely beyond me personally. They are far more consistent on the world stage than the US, this has been true forever. It will be interesting to see what happens to our respective teams considering the fact that neither of us will be seeded this time around, but Mexico is every bit as good as the US and in more ways than one is a better football team.
If both miss, it's South Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, and the Netherlands. http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/2010-world-cup-seeding-formula-based-on_16.html