Craig P pointed me in the right direction. I was including some countries that have already been eliminated when I was considering the US rank.
Right now with the latest FIFA rankings (if Portugal and France make it) the US would be 10th place since Croatia didn't make it. So they would get 23 points out of 32.
So we need Costa Rica to beat Uruguay so the "USA and Mexico get screwed" scenario doesn't happen, right?
I still think they will pull a surprise, like seeding all four pots placing the United States in a pot with Mexico, Portugal, Holland, Switzerland, Paraguay, Ghana, and Russia, rather than the traditional confederational pairings.
Well, I don't have a ton of time to sort through a million threads to figure out what has and has not been disussed on Bigsoccer, and I have been mostly inactive from Bigsoccer since July, so I am bit out of the loop. My question was answered... additionally had Argentina failed to qualify we would still be in the running. Sorry to bother you.
won't the criteria of teams from the same confederation NOT being in the same group still follow....except europe that is...
Yes, but CL draw doesn't have to contend with 13 teams from 1 country. I really don'tliek thsi anyway, when it coems to the World Cup the USA get more than a fair deal due to having to qualify from CONCACAF If the 2nd seeds were based on previous WC results and FIFA ranking, this would be generous to the USA as they've been virtually assured qualification for the last 4 World Cups and they're overanked in the FIFA rankings (two facts that are not unrelated). A more realistic seeding may have USA as 3rd seeds and hence actually be to their disadvantage, How many more easy rides do you want? England had to wait from 1982 to 2006 to get a seed during which time their WC record was SF, dnq, 2R, QF, (not to mention that twice they went out to the eventually winners and twice they went out on penalties, thoguh such things wouldn't be factore into any real calcualtion of seeds). In the World Cup their is only really the need for top seeds anyway as there'sonly a small group of teams likely to make the final. It is much better to preserve geographical diversity in the opening stage as (except the Confed Cup and WCQ play-offs for whatvere their worth) this the only chance for teams in different Confederations to play each other and it comes but once every four years. The USA are defintely an improved team (from even 4 years ago) and it'll be interesting to see how they fare this year. I'm not against the USA being seeded, just think they should earn it first and think it's a bit unseemly to bitch about it until they have.
If Uruguay wins, there will be a large advantage for the three teams put into the pot with the African teams. I'm not sure how else to do it, but its clear there will be a huge advantage to the confederation (CONCACAF or CONMEBOL) that gets put with the African teams.
Hear! Hear! I agree wholeheartedly. It's past time for this. They seed the qualifying pots/groups. They seed the UEFA playoffs. They seed the WC top seeds. But not the rest of the pots? It's just dumb. They can get away with is as long as Argentina, Brazil + 5/6 Euros are seeded every time and CONMEBOL gets 3 other teams in. If that breaks down, then they can't put all of a the same teams' confederations into the same pot. Another reason to root for Costa Rica. Serbia got screwed into the group of death last time. And the team that gets paired with AFC can't draw a minnow unless some African surprise teams get in (which doesn't look likely this time). Having said all that, there is both an upside and down side to getting put in a pot with AFC: 1) Downside: We can't draw a minnow (as Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Tunisia/Nigeria, & Algeria/Egypt are in) + Chile/Paraguay/Uruguay from CONMEBOL. 2) Downside: chances for group of death are higher. 3) Upside. The African teams can't be drawn into South Africa's pot. That means it has to be one of the CONCACAF teams (somehow, I bet it will be Honduras). Still, 1/3 chance we get South Africa. And the SA group could be really weak: SA + weaker Euro (Slovakia, Swiss) + CONMEBOL (as they can't draw an African team) (Chile/Paraguay/Uruguay) + CONCACAF. A SA, Slovakia, Uruguay, USA group is one we can win. 4) Downside. Playing any African team in SA is going to be a major pain.
You would have a 1/3 of getting south Africa if you were in the CAF pot, not AFC. All eight teams in the AFC pot could draw South Africa.
I read your whole post, and I understand where you are coming from... but the most the US can do is compete in its confederation to qualify and then do what they can in a world cup. Their 'easy ride' isn't their fault. The FIFA rankings are messed up in general, but all the US can do is abide by FIFA rules when they play their games. Everything else is up to FIFA and how they decide to change their formulas for coefficients and rankings over time.
How I see it: Pot A: South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, Italy, England, France Pot B (remainder of Europe): Denmark, Switzerland, Slovakia, Serbia, Holland, Greece, Russia, Portugal Pot C (North & South America, 2 from Asia): Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, USA, Mexico, Hondurus, South Korea, Japan Pot D (all other teams): Australia, North Korea, Cameroon, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, Cote d' Ivoire, Bahrain When doing my random draw, I went on the following assumptions: 1. South Africa would NOT get another African team in it's draw 2. Argentina and Brazil will NOT get another South American team 3: Japan and South Korea will NOT get another Asian team The Groups: A: South Africa, Slovakia, Paraguay, North Korea B: Italy, Portugal, Hondurus, Algeria C: France, Serbia, USA, Ghana D: England, Holland, Japan, Cote d' Ivoire E: Spain, Switzerland, Chile, Bahrain F: Argentina, Russia, South Korea, Cameroon G: Brazil, Denmark, Mexico, Tunisia H: Germany, Greece, Uruguay, Australia
Don't worry about that one at all- his pots make no sense. There are too many mixed Federations. FIFA wants to group Federations together (8 UEFA and then 5+3 and 5+3) as much as possible. That will avoid having to overtly rig the draws. They prefer to do that behind the scenes.
I think that CAF and CONCACAF will be in one pot and Honduras will draw South Africa. AFC and CONMEBOL will be in the other pot and either Bahrain or New Zealand will draw South Africa. Of course, if Costa Rica get past Uruguay then things become more complicated.
Seeing South African with Honduras AND New Zealand will make things just too damn obvious... maybe FIFA, if they do rig the pots, will make it a bit less obvious by maybe putting only one of those teams in there... a South Africa, Slovenia, New Zealand, Honduras group, while you have an England, Netherlands, Paraguay, Cameroon group, an Italy, Serbia, Ivory Coast, Mexico, and an Argentina, Portugal, Ghana, Japan group? It'd take an idiot not to smell something fishy there...
Nicely done and repped. Look at the 8 top seeds, quite a likely group imo. Chances are South Africa will end up in a "Group of Life" to keep local media interest high. All of the second listed teams in this grouping are the second tier Euro powers. They will be spread out among the 8 groups to be sure. South Africa will not have an African team in it's group. Of course USA will not have Mexico or Honduras in it's group. The Asian qualifiers will be mixed up and spread out. We will be unusually lucky if we end up with a first match Euro team who is not taking us seriously and a later match against a South American second tier team Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile that might be winnable or an Asian team Japan, North or South Korea. South Africa will get the easiet draw, count on it. None of those groups look easy.
Any pot that splits up Asia isn't likely. Africa will have 5 non-seeded teams. Asia will have 4 or 5 non-seeded teams SA will have 2 or 3 non-seeded teams. CONCACAF will have 3 or 4 non-seeded teams. Costa Rica win + NZ win: Africa : 5 non-seeded teams. Asia : 4 non-seeded teams SA : 2 non-seeded teams. CONCACAF : 4 non-seeded teams. -> CONCACAF & Asia in one pot, the rest in the other. Costa Rica win + Bahrain win: Africa : 5 non-seeded teams. Asia : 5 non-seeded teams SA : 2 non-seeded teams. CONCACAF : 4 non-seeded teams. They'll split up CONCACAF between the Africa and Asia pots. Uruguay win + NZ win: Africa : 5 non-seeded teams. Asia : 4 non-seeded teams SA : 3 non-seeded teams. CONCACAF : 3 non-seeded teams. Either SA or CONCACAF goes in to the Africa pot. Uruguay win + Bahrain win: Africa : 5 non-seeded teams. Asia : 5 non-seeded teams SA : 3 non-seeded teams. CONCACAF : 3 non-seeded teams. Same as above. Ironically, if we want to avoid an African team, the one scenario we don't want is Costa Rica win + NZ win. Costa Rica win + Bahrain win is the one scenario where at least one CONCACAF team avoids playing an African team.
Just to clarify -- what we're really hoping for here is that CONCACAF gets paired up with Africa. Because if they do, then our odds of ending up in South Africa's group are greatly improved, thus avoiding all the other top seeds and ending up in a softer group. Just like in 2002.
If as I (and apparently you as well) suspect, that South Africa gets a lifeline in the draw, the rest of the field gets that much more difficult as a direct result. In this scenario: I see two types of groups, challenging, and group of death-ish. There are no easy rides outside of Group A.