The Possibility of a USA Seeding

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Dignan, Oct 16, 2009.

  1. Pablo Chicago

    Pablo Chicago Member+

    Sep 7, 2005
    Sweet Home Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Craig P pointed me in the right direction. I was including some countries that have already been eliminated when I was considering the US rank.
     
  2. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right now with the latest FIFA rankings (if Portugal and France make it) the US would be 10th place since Croatia didn't make it. So they would get 23 points out of 32.
     
  3. ussoccerFan12358

    Mar 11, 2006
    Central NY
    So we need Costa Rica to beat Uruguay so the "USA and Mexico get screwed" scenario doesn't happen, right?
     
  4. whitecloud

    whitecloud Member+

    Jan 25, 2009
    Gulf Shores, AL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I still think they will pull a surprise, like seeding all four pots placing the United States in a pot with Mexico, Portugal, Holland, Switzerland, Paraguay, Ghana, and Russia, rather than the traditional confederational pairings.
     
  5. Dignan

    Dignan Member+

    Nov 29, 1999
    Granada
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, I don't have a ton of time to sort through a million threads to figure out what has and has not been disussed on Bigsoccer, and I have been mostly inactive from Bigsoccer since July, so I am bit out of the loop.

    My question was answered... additionally had Argentina failed to qualify we would still be in the running.

    Sorry to bother you.
     
  6. Adam Zebrowski

    Adam Zebrowski New Member

    May 28, 1999
    won't the criteria of teams from the same confederation NOT being in the same group still follow....except europe that is...
     
  7. whitecloud

    whitecloud Member+

    Jan 25, 2009
    Gulf Shores, AL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes. But, the Champions League draw was able to do this while still seeding all the pots.
     
  8. jcsd

    jcsd Member+

    Jan 27, 2006
    Yes, but CL draw doesn't have to contend with 13 teams from 1 country.

    I really don'tliek thsi anyway, when it coems to the World Cup the USA get more than a fair deal due to having to qualify from CONCACAF

    If the 2nd seeds were based on previous WC results and FIFA ranking, this would be generous to the USA as they've been virtually assured qualification for the last 4 World Cups and they're overanked in the FIFA rankings (two facts that are not unrelated). A more realistic seeding may have USA as 3rd seeds and hence actually be to their disadvantage,

    How many more easy rides do you want? England had to wait from 1982 to 2006 to get a seed during which time their WC record was SF, dnq, 2R, QF, (not to mention that twice they went out to the eventually winners and twice they went out on penalties, thoguh such things wouldn't be factore into any real calcualtion of seeds).

    In the World Cup their is only really the need for top seeds anyway as there'sonly a small group of teams likely to make the final. It is much better to preserve geographical diversity in the opening stage as (except the Confed Cup and WCQ play-offs for whatvere their worth) this the only chance for teams in different Confederations to play each other and it comes but once every four years.

    The USA are defintely an improved team (from even 4 years ago) and it'll be interesting to see how they fare this year. I'm not against the USA being seeded, just think they should earn it first and think it's a bit unseemly to bitch about it until they have.
     
  9. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Uruguay wins, there will be a large advantage for the three teams put into the pot with the African teams.

    I'm not sure how else to do it, but its clear there will be a huge advantage to the confederation (CONCACAF or CONMEBOL) that gets put with the African teams.
     
  10. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hear! Hear! I agree wholeheartedly. It's past time for this.

    They seed the qualifying pots/groups. They seed the UEFA playoffs. They seed the WC top seeds. But not the rest of the pots? It's just dumb.

    They can get away with is as long as Argentina, Brazil + 5/6 Euros are seeded every time and CONMEBOL gets 3 other teams in. If that breaks down, then they can't put all of a the same teams' confederations into the same pot. Another reason to root for Costa Rica.

    Serbia got screwed into the group of death last time. And the team that gets paired with AFC can't draw a minnow unless some African surprise teams get in (which doesn't look likely this time).

    Having said all that, there is both an upside and down side to getting put in a pot with AFC:

    1) Downside: We can't draw a minnow (as Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Tunisia/Nigeria, & Algeria/Egypt are in) + Chile/Paraguay/Uruguay from CONMEBOL.

    2) Downside: chances for group of death are higher.

    3) Upside. The African teams can't be drawn into South Africa's pot. That means it has to be one of the CONCACAF teams (somehow, I bet it will be Honduras). Still, 1/3 chance we get South Africa. And the SA group could be really weak: SA + weaker Euro (Slovakia, Swiss) + CONMEBOL (as they can't draw an African team) (Chile/Paraguay/Uruguay) + CONCACAF. A SA, Slovakia, Uruguay, USA group is one we can win.

    4) Downside. Playing any African team in SA is going to be a major pain.
     
  11. Chupacabra

    Chupacabra Member+

    Aug 2, 2004
    Westwood, NJ
    What is "a snowball's chance in hell"?

    I'll stay with FIFA myths and famous sayings for $400, Alex.
     
  12. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You would have a 1/3 of getting south Africa if you were in the CAF pot, not AFC. All eight teams in the AFC pot could draw South Africa.
     
  13. EruditeHobo

    EruditeHobo Member+

    Mar 29, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I read your whole post, and I understand where you are coming from... but the most the US can do is compete in its confederation to qualify and then do what they can in a world cup. Their 'easy ride' isn't their fault. The FIFA rankings are messed up in general, but all the US can do is abide by FIFA rules when they play their games. Everything else is up to FIFA and how they decide to change their formulas for coefficients and rankings over time.
     
  14. Hamburgler03

    Hamburgler03 BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 31, 2000
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How I see it:

    Pot A: South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, Italy, England, France

    Pot B (remainder of Europe): Denmark, Switzerland, Slovakia, Serbia, Holland, Greece, Russia, Portugal

    Pot C (North & South America, 2 from Asia): Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, USA, Mexico, Hondurus, South Korea, Japan

    Pot D (all other teams): Australia, North Korea, Cameroon, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, Cote d' Ivoire, Bahrain

    When doing my random draw, I went on the following assumptions:
    1. South Africa would NOT get another African team in it's draw
    2. Argentina and Brazil will NOT get another South American team
    3: Japan and South Korea will NOT get another Asian team

    The Groups:

    A: South Africa, Slovakia, Paraguay, North Korea
    B: Italy, Portugal, Hondurus, Algeria
    C: France, Serbia, USA, Ghana
    D: England, Holland, Japan, Cote d' Ivoire
    E: Spain, Switzerland, Chile, Bahrain
    F: Argentina, Russia, South Korea, Cameroon
    G: Brazil, Denmark, Mexico, Tunisia
    H: Germany, Greece, Uruguay, Australia
     
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  15. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    What was I thinking? If we are in AFC's pot, there is a 1/8 chance of getting SA, never mind.
     
  16. Bluecat82

    Bluecat82 Member+

    Feb 24, 1999
    Minneapolis, MN
    Club:
    Minnesota United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That draw would stink...

    Which means, of course, that that's probably how it'll play out.
     
  17. FirstStar

    FirstStar Hustlin' for the USA

    Fulham Football Club
    Feb 1, 2005
    Time's Arrow
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Don't worry about that one at all- his pots make no sense. There are too many mixed Federations. FIFA wants to group Federations together (8 UEFA and then 5+3 and 5+3) as much as possible. That will avoid having to overtly rig the draws. They prefer to do that behind the scenes.
     
  18. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I think that CAF and CONCACAF will be in one pot and Honduras will draw South Africa. AFC and CONMEBOL will be in the other pot and either Bahrain or New Zealand will draw South Africa. Of course, if Costa Rica get past Uruguay then things become more complicated.
     
  19. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Seeing South African with Honduras AND New Zealand will make things just too damn obvious...

    maybe FIFA, if they do rig the pots, will make it a bit less obvious by maybe putting only one of those teams in there...

    a South Africa, Slovenia, New Zealand, Honduras group, while you have an England, Netherlands, Paraguay, Cameroon group, an Italy, Serbia, Ivory Coast, Mexico, and an Argentina, Portugal, Ghana, Japan group?

    It'd take an idiot not to smell something fishy there...
     
  20. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    True, but I don't think FIFA care that much. They never have in the past.
     
  21. deuteronomy

    deuteronomy Member+

    Angkor Siem Reap FC
    United States
    Aug 12, 2008
    at the pitch
    Club:
    Siem Reap Angkor FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nicely done and repped. Look at the 8 top seeds, quite a likely group imo.
    Chances are South Africa will end up in a "Group of Life" to keep local media interest high.
    All of the second listed teams in this grouping are the second tier Euro powers. They will be spread out among the 8 groups to be sure.
    South Africa will not have an African team in it's group.
    Of course USA will not have Mexico or Honduras in it's group. The Asian qualifiers will be mixed up and spread out.

    We will be unusually lucky if we end up with a first match Euro team who is not taking us seriously and a later match against a South American second tier team Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile that might be winnable or an Asian team Japan, North or South Korea.
    South Africa will get the easiet draw, count on it. None of those groups look easy.
     
  22. Sachin

    Sachin New Member

    Jan 14, 2000
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    I don't think we're going to find an opponent who looks past us.
     
  23. rtung

    rtung Member

    Aug 20, 1999
    Chicago, IL, USA
    Any pot that splits up Asia isn't likely.

    Africa will have 5 non-seeded teams.
    Asia will have 4 or 5 non-seeded teams
    SA will have 2 or 3 non-seeded teams.
    CONCACAF will have 3 or 4 non-seeded teams.


    Costa Rica win + NZ win:
    Africa : 5 non-seeded teams.
    Asia : 4 non-seeded teams
    SA : 2 non-seeded teams.
    CONCACAF : 4 non-seeded teams.
    -> CONCACAF & Asia in one pot, the rest in the other.

    Costa Rica win + Bahrain win:
    Africa : 5 non-seeded teams.
    Asia : 5 non-seeded teams
    SA : 2 non-seeded teams.
    CONCACAF : 4 non-seeded teams.
    They'll split up CONCACAF between the Africa and Asia pots.

    Uruguay win + NZ win:
    Africa : 5 non-seeded teams.
    Asia : 4 non-seeded teams
    SA : 3 non-seeded teams.
    CONCACAF : 3 non-seeded teams.
    Either SA or CONCACAF goes in to the Africa pot.

    Uruguay win + Bahrain win:
    Africa : 5 non-seeded teams.
    Asia : 5 non-seeded teams
    SA : 3 non-seeded teams.
    CONCACAF : 3 non-seeded teams.
    Same as above.

    Ironically, if we want to avoid an African team, the one scenario we don't want is Costa Rica win + NZ win. Costa Rica win + Bahrain win is the one scenario where at least one CONCACAF team avoids playing an African team.
     
  24. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just to clarify -- what we're really hoping for here is that CONCACAF gets paired up with Africa. Because if they do, then our odds of ending up in South Africa's group are greatly improved, thus avoiding all the other top seeds and ending up in a softer group. Just like in 2002.
     
  25. Marko72

    Marko72 Member+

    Aug 30, 2005
    New York
    If as I (and apparently you as well) suspect, that South Africa gets a lifeline in the draw, the rest of the field gets that much more difficult as a direct result. In this scenario: I see two types of groups, challenging, and group of death-ish. There are no easy rides outside of Group A.
     

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