The Possibility of a USA Seeding

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Dignan, Oct 16, 2009.

  1. Dignan

    Dignan Member+

    Nov 29, 1999
    Granada
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    At first I pretty much scoffed at the idea of the US getting a seeding. But then I did a little research, and while I didn't crunch all the numbers (someone with more time and math skills can) it seems that we have a shot here.

    Did you know that we were the 9th ranked team going into the 2006 World Cup?

    Anyway, according to wikipedia, seeding is decided by rating in last two World Cups (02 and 06), plus your December FIFA ranking from December 07, 08 and 09.

    Ok, we get good points from 02 WC. Not so much from the 06 one. Our current FIFA ranking is 10. Our ranking in 07 (19) was not so good, and 08 was slightly worse (21). However, our ranking currently is 11. I think we can assume that that won't change much and could even go up.

    We can also assume that out of the qualifying teams so far, Brazil, Italy,Germany, England, Argentina, Netherlands, and Spain will get very justified seeds. That only leaves one seed left.

    The interesting thing is that the teams that we would seem to be competing with for a seed and ones that would win out over us could all fail to qualify for the World Cup. Croatia isn't going at all. Russia, Portugal, and France could also fail to qualify.

    Its a bit of wishful thinking that all three of those teams won't make it, but stranger things have happened. But, basically I think if those three go out the USA might have a shot.

    I could be wrong. But Bob and Sunil seemed to think that the USA does have a chance to get a seed, and it seems like they might have checked out all the option and had some people crunch some numbers to see if it was in the realm of possibility.

    Interestingly, it could end up that the tie against Costa Rica (instead of a win) could end up hurting those chances.
     
  2. danbet35

    danbet35 New Member

    Feb 6, 2007
    Liverpool
    I may be wrong but I think South Africa are seeded as hosts.
     
  3. Golazo

    Golazo Member+

    Apr 15, 1999
    Decatur, GA USA
    zero. Zero possibility. And there is already at least one thread on this topic on the main USA board.
     
  4. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Why crunch numbers when others do it for you? Link


    Portugal and France both sit above The Netherlands if FIFA use the same system as last time. Of course both could be eliminated, putting Netherlands in at 7. The 8th spot is taken by the host. Mexico and USA sit just behind these nations in that order. A USA seed would need a change to the way that FIFA sets the seeds. This is quite possible, but under the 2006 system you miss out.
     
  5. ussoccerFan12358

    Mar 11, 2006
    Central NY
    Any chance we can catch Mexico with this year's year-end rankings?
     
  6. Adam Zebrowski

    Adam Zebrowski New Member

    May 28, 1999
    the usa match at denmark is the only match remaining which helps usa bypass mexico...

    now if usa can get a 2nd november match versus a top 8, maybe the math works out just enough usa, but who knows exactly...

    i'd think the best option is fifa tinkering with their method a bit
     
  7. Adam Zebrowski

    Adam Zebrowski New Member

    May 28, 1999
    also root for costa rica in the play-off with uruguay, as that adds bonus points to usa schedule...
     
  8. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No more seeding threads by people who don't know what they are talking about.

    No, we won't be seeded. It's official with the same numbers:

    http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/fifa-ranking-october-2009-final-preview.html


    South Africa are seeded as hosts, and there are already 7 other teams with WAY more points than our 34.7.

    Qualified Teams:
    -------------------
    1) Brazil: 59.7
    2) Germany 59.3
    3) Italy 56.7
    4) Spain 56.0
    5) England 51.3
    6) Argentina 49.7
    7) Netherlands 43.0
    ---------------------------
    8) Mexico 37.0
    9) USA 34.7

    UEFA Playoff Teams
    --------------------
    1) France 48.0
    2) Portugal 47.3

    Try to get it through your head:
    1) 50% of the formula is already decided (World Cup performance)
    2) 2/3 of the remaining total is completely done (relative FIFA ranking: Dec '07, '08)
    3) Of the remaining 1/6 (1/2 + 2/3*1/2), it is almost all decided, as FIFA rankings take into results over the last 4 years.

    The needle can move very little, though the rankings are bunched pretty tight. Catching Mexico was a possibility (though are real longshot) before we both tied. Now it doesn't even matter.

    The only chance is for FIFA to racially change the formula, which I doubt because:
    1) Looks like they got the top teams about right to me, and
    2) The are using the current FIFA rankings pool (and WC allocation slots) to seed pools for continental 2014 WC qualifying. If they were going to make a change, I think you'd see it there.

    I could be wrong, of curse, but by the numbers they used last time, it is OVER, NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. JUST BECAUSE LANDON SAYS IT DOESN'T MAKE IT TRUE. Really, our only chance involved Argentina, France, and Portugal not qualifying and them somehow getting enough results in the next month to see us shoot up the table, Mexico drop, and a bunch of other teams that are in get in between us. Argentina are in, its over.

    God, I can't wait until November, for the end of these threads.
     
  9. EruditeHobo

    EruditeHobo Member+

    Mar 29, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What this guy said.

    The chances are at ********ing ZERO, please stop making these threads they are completely pointless.
     
  10. iyutepo

    iyutepo Member

    Feb 8, 2007
    Colorado
    For South Africa, in Group A.
     
  11. Nermalthecat

    Nermalthecat Member

    Mar 1, 2001
    Avon, CT
    Et tu, FIFA? I KNEW we should have played Paco Torres more in the midfield!

    [​IMG]
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Mr Martin

    Mr Martin Member+

    Jun 12, 2002
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yup.
     
  13. iyutepo

    iyutepo Member

    Feb 8, 2007
    Colorado
    Can we just leave race out of this, please?

    Get ready for the "We should have been SEEDED!!1" threads...
     
  14. KennyWoo

    KennyWoo Member

    May 21, 2007
    Pasadena, California
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You should have saved yourself time and humiliation by stopping there.

    These seed threads are so pathetic.
     
  15. EEUU

    EEUU Member

    Mar 4, 2000
    Massapequa, NY USA
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To quote King Arthur in "Monty Python & The Holy Grail": "What an eccentric performance."
     
  16. Pablo Chicago

    Pablo Chicago Member+

    Sep 7, 2005
    Sweet Home Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not that it matters in terms of becoming a seeded team, but I arrived at a different total for the US and I'm not sure where I went wrong. Hoping someone can point me in the right direction.

    I've got us at 13.7 points for our last 2 WC performances (which agrees with what I've seen posted elsewhere), but I've got us with 15.7 points based on FIFA's world rankings from 12/07, 12/08 and 10/09.

    Using the same FIFA "Attribution of points" table that was used to determine the seeds for the 2006 WC:

    Based on the US ranking of 19th as of December '07, we earned 14 points
    Based on the US ranking of 22nd as of December '08, we earned 11 points
    Based on the US ranking of 11th as of October '09, we earned 22 points

    When I add these up and divide by 3, I come up with a 3-year average of 15.7, which when added to 13.7 = 29.4

    Can someone tell me where I went wrong?
     
  17. Craig P

    Craig P BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 26, 1999
    Eastern MA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Remember that for the FIFA rankings component, it's not our outright rank that counts, but rather our rank order among participating teams. If we're 19th, but three teams ahead of us fail to qualify, we get additional points.
     
  18. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Number of threads on USA getting a seed before the draw

    OVER/UNDER 150.5
     
  19. Pablo Chicago

    Pablo Chicago Member+

    Sep 7, 2005
    Sweet Home Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks. You must spread some rep...

    Can someone rep Craig P for me?
     
  20. FirstStar

    FirstStar Hustlin' for the USA

    Feb 1, 2005
    Time's Arrow
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It also screws up the pot numbering enough that FIFA may decide to do something different with seeds. Right now, though, it's 1 CAF (host), 2 CONMEBOL and 5 UEFA (Pot A). That leaves 8 UEFA (Pot B), 5 CAF + 3 CONMEBAL (assuming Costa Rice loses) (Pot C) and 5 AFC/Oceania + 3 CONCACRAP. That's the "USA and Mexico get screwed" distribution as neither of us will draw minnows from AFC and the odds of drawing S. Africa are low.

    Now if we get grouped with CAF, life gets good-- 1-in-3 chance of being in S. Africa's group and a 50/50 chance of a weak AFC team. I like that.
     
  21. Bigrose30

    Bigrose30 Member+

    Sep 11, 2004
    Jersey City, NJ
    Excellent post. I hadn't thought about the fact that the confederation potted with CAF has to have one of its teams in South Africa's group...that is, if they won't allow two African teams in the same group (which one would assume would be the case.)

    Getting potted with Africa is the key. Hopefully that's how it works out.
     
  22. Sachin

    Sachin New Member

    Jan 14, 2000
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Are the year end raking averages weighted?
     
  23. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They are of equal weight.
     
  24. FirstStar

    FirstStar Hustlin' for the USA

    Feb 1, 2005
    Time's Arrow
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are the two metrics (Year End Rankings and Past WC Performance) equally weighted?
     
  25. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes.
     

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