The Off-Year & Special Elections Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, Mar 1, 2017.

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  1. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    I thought this was interesting:

    http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/18/live-updates-georgias-6th-district-special-election/

    Updated at 6:15 p.m.Reading the tea leaves

    Political analysts are getting wound up about a pair of Sandy Springs districts that could signal a stronger-than-expected Democratic turnout.

    The first is a precinct that Democrat Michelle Nunn won with 78 percent of the vote in 2014, meaning that it’s a trove of potential votes for Democrat Jon Ossoff. Turnout in that precinct has nearly doubled on Tuesday, an astounding feat for a special election.

    The second is a precinct in a more conservative stretch of Sandy Springs where Nunn only got about a third of the votes. Turnout there is only about half of what it was in 2014.

    “That ain’t good,” texted one GOP operative.
     
    Gamecock14 repped this.
  2. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    If it's anything close to 50%, it will be remarkable.

    As much as the democrats spent, the republicans have outspent Ossoff 2-1. The area might hate Trump, but they like conservatives. For more than 47-48 support for Ossoff will be surprising.
     
  3. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
  4. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
     
  5. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    854486475416772608 is not a valid tweet id
     
  6. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    854488950291009536 is not a valid tweet id


    Basically Ossoff is killing it in Dekalb. Exceeding what he needs to get to 50%
     
  7. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Gamecock14 repped this.
  8. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    I don't understand the logic of this being over if he doesn't get 50%. What if he gets 46-48%? Is it that unreasonable to think that he could be the 2nd choice for that remaining 2-4%? Is Handel really that charismatic that she can bank on every non Ossoff vote?

    Keep in mind that there are 4 other fringe Democrats and a couple of fringe independents running as well. There may be about 1% to pick up there alone.
     
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  9. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    It matters because this area is pretty conservative/republican. They usually win 14-16+ at a minimum. The only way Ossoff realistically wins the runoff is if the Trump guy (Gray) is in before Handel. Trump barely beat Hillary in the district, that may be the only may I see Ossoff winning a run off.
     
  10. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    My point is that if it's so conservative, they shouldn't let Ossoff get to around 48%. If Ossoff gets that high, it suggests that he has a modest chance. I mean the electorate in the run off will be very similar to tonight's electorate. No reason to think that Ossoff's 48% wouldn't come out again. From there he only needs to add a little to win.

    All speculation of course. If he finishes below 45%, I agree that it's unrealistic.
     
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  11. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Ossoff at 62% with over 50,000 votes counted. Have no idea what this means since I don't know where the remaining votes are coming from.
     
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  12. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    You have a point, but I only see that happening if the Republican candidate is a Trump person.

    IMO, if Handel wins and has a 1 month+ to go after Ossoff, she will be in a strong position. Maybe Ossoff pulls it out, but his turnout has to be high again. I don't think that is as likely. Handel has distanced herself away from Trump. But if Trump goes all out for Handel, it may be close.

    Even if this district flips, it flips back the second Trump is out of office unless Ossoff impresses the district.
     
  13. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Gamecock, by the time Trump is out of office, the district won't be the same due to the census.
    I think you've got it right, for the reasons you cited, as well as SOME sore loser GOP voters.
     
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  14. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Down to 61.4% with 12% reporting ...
     
  15. Barbara

    Barbara BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 29, 2000
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Where are you getting that?
     
  16. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    This is the the local Atlanta NBC affiliate :

    http://www.11alive.com/elections

    The 12% reporting I just saw on Twitter, although this source claims it's only 4% reporting.
     
  17. Barbara

    Barbara BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 29, 2000
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The NYT has 9%.
     
  18. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
     
  19. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    It seems like Ossoff's losing a percentage point with every batch of new precincts reporting. At this rate we could be looking at low 40s ... Oh well.

     
  20. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    fvck you guys, you are making me care about this shitty race.

    I will tune in fully expecting a disappointment.
     
  21. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Important thing to remember is that Ossoff lives to fight another day no matter what. His background is investigative documentaries. Maybe he can investigate something on Handel ... maybe pics with an underage boy or something.

    Also the gossip around town says that Bill O'Reilly is done at Fox News. So there may be other minor victories today in other places.
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    The problem with Ossof failing to get over 50% is that a whole bunch of dedicated liberals convinced themselves that he really could win without a runoff, and they will be heartbroken by the "loss" -- a loss in which Ossof actually won a 1-1 race in the June runoff.

    Rather than be heartbroken, those liberals should double their organizing efforts starting tomorrow.
     
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  23. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
     
  24. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What evidence do you have that liberals in the district think that?
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Who says I was speaking about liberals in the GA-06?

    Sometimes you try to pick really uninteresting fights.
     

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