One more R is calling it quit...That should be a pick up for the D's. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ), the chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, announced that he will not seek reelection, The Hill reports. President Trump won the district in 2016 by just one percentage point, 49% to 48%. Cook Political Report: “The burden of proof will be on Republicans to unite around a new nominee and catch up with Democrats in a very challenging political environment. For now, we’re keeping this open seat in the Toss Up column, but Democrats may now be ever-so-slight favorites.”
Dems flipped Missouri HD 97, and it's too close to call in Missouri HD 144 at this time. 97 went 61-33 for Trump and 144 went 78-19. There were four special elections in Missouri tonight. None of the four had a Democrat run in 2016 – none would've been even close to competitive. But here we are batting .250 at the very worst. EDIT: Ok so only Wayne County is left, which means that the GOP will hold that seat. But it'll be close, and yet another massive overperformance.
GOP won HD 144 2998-2699, or 52.6-47.4%. Trump had won that district 78-19. HUGE turnout (relatively speaking) in the suburbs there. Bodes well for McCaskill, even if it wasn't enough to flip this particular seat on this particular night.
In rural Missouri district tonight, Dem *almost* wins by moving margin 53 pts (!!!) from Trump's 59 point win. And, oh yeah, the suburban district Trump won by 31 points? Dems won that one tonight. Cheers! pic.twitter.com/Z2EDybUurS— Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social (@donnermaps) February 7, 2018
Yep. Democrats already hold almost everything urban. There is no pathway to 24 seats in the house without at least 10 suburban districts that are over 75% white.
This'll be an interesting one to keep an eye on: http://floridapolitics.com/archives/256043-final-poll-hd-72-special-election-shows-upset-making-not
Turnout was high for both the GOP and the dems. Seems like a lot of Trump voters in the suburbs are rethinking things.
Three special elections tonight, all in GOP districts. Democrats won two, including a Connecticut House seat that had been red for 44 years, and a House seat in New Hampshire (by 8 points) that Trump had carried by 13 points. The third seat, in Kentucky, stayed red. But the Democrat did 28 points better than in 2016. Tidal wave is coming.
so how is Arizona looking? No wall to wall coverage on CNN, they are talking first lady and hand holding, so probably the dem will not pull it off?
Every seat with a <15 point Trump margin last held by a Republican. A 6 point Lesko victory, if held to the general election, puts all of these in play. pic.twitter.com/IAWlgHw3OQ— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) April 25, 2018 My district is on that list. Indeed, only 3 GOP reps in CA escaped that list. If all those GOPers lost, out of 55 CA reps, 52 would be Dems.
It probably won't get covered this way, but this is arguably the worst special congressional election result yet for the GOP— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) April 25, 2018 According to Wasserman "There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08." Also worth noting that Dems won a NY state assembly seat – by 18 points! – that had been GOP for 40 years. They also won 2 open NY state senate seats, including a 15-point win in what was considered to be a swing district. More from Wasserman: To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here's their overperformance in the past 8 specials: #KS04: 12% #MTAL: 8% #GA06: 6% #SC05: 7% #UT03: 6% #ALSEN: 15% #PA18: 11% #AZ08: 11%
So far Trump's response to this has been Trump rallies at Republican campaign events. Is this the best advice that his political advisors are giving him or is he just ignoring political advice?
I'm watching The Circus, season 1, and one of the things which was noted about Bernie Sanders is that he did a lot of events in places that were already favorable to him (mind, I'm only about half way to the convention). This strikes me as very much what 45 is doing. Which is good for current supporters, but not for winning elections. I'm not sure, when it comes to events, he even pays attention to advice. Because he is narcissistic and loves the adulation a crowd gives him, and that makes him think he is doing well.
Big crowds reinforce media narratives about a candidate's popularity though, which is arguably valuable.
If you were a pro with a decade or more left in your career, would you be anywhere near this White House? So my guess is he's not listening to anybody who is very good at this.
One of the things I heard many years ago was that big crowds are addictive, and that is dangerous as a President. I'm thinking it was in reference to Obama accepting the nomination in Denver with 70k in attendance. A President, when he (so far) speaks, attracts a big crowd unless designed to be small. And that crowd is almost always going to filled with supporters who will cheer him (so far) even if he (so far) is talking really stupid.