The Off-Year & Special Elections Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, Mar 1, 2017.

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  1. Gamecock14

    Gamecock14 Member+

    May 27, 2010
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    When democrats flip seats, it seems to me that it's either the R candidate is bad, Trump is disliked this much (by women / college educated/ etc), or actual economic anxiety.

    I am curious to see which is going to cause the most seats to flip.
     
  2. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What's curious (and heartening) about the WI scenario is that the R candidate was legit, and better funded than the D candidate, and the D candidate really just ran on issues; she wasn't really talking about trump directly all that much.
     
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  3. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    We all pray that you avoided picking up that accent.
     
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  4. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  5. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, it's worse than that, as I'm originally from northern Minnesota (a dialect that's as bizarre and unintelligible as a deep southern accent). I'm pleased to say that, while I have no hint of a Minnesota/Wisconsin accent, I can mimic it pretty well, dontcha know.
     
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  6. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    I have a workmate from Michigan. I cringe at all of the consonants she drops.
     
  7. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    There was only one district flipped in Wisconsin. The other two races were holds.
     
  8. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    #383 Boloni86, Jan 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
    Nice longish article profiling the next race on the special election calendar.

    The excerpt I quote is interesting because it highlights one of the dilemmas in the Democratic party. On the one hand we have these young and dynamic candidates in red districts who could conceivably win races with a little more party support and financial muscle. On the other hand you can't roll in the urban elite Pelosi cavalry with their checkbooks because of all the negative baggage that entails. So these guys are left to mostly fight on their own. And on top of that these Democrats who work so hard with so little are constantly insulted and derided by the mainstream liberal conversation.

    This is what happens when people allow over simplified media narratives to reinforce their own stereotypes. You see someone from Bumfcuk PA and all you see is a Trump voter. People don't even question this reflexive form of prejudice. We see this every day on Big Soccer PC&E where blanket attacks against "whitelandia" are repped and applauded.

    Of course Dems have an equally frustrating problem from another wing in the party, the younger college campus type hyper activists who argue that the answer in every district is to go full Berniecrat. So we have one bloc in the party that is simply ignoring these districts. And another bloc that wants to fight a scorched earth "justice democrats" platform that is sure to lose. In the middle we have people like Conor Lamb who are barely hanging on. Not only fighting the massive GOP machine, but also fighting against these negative forces inside their own party. And people wonder why Democrats are dying in parts of the country.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...334e4b046f0811cd495?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

     
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  9. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well just send money and money raisers and stay out of the way, that is the best that the Dem party can do for those people running in red districts.
     
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  10. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    That's similar to an article in Politico a while back entitled, "Heartland Democrats to Washington: You're Killing Us."

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/11/terry-goodin-rural-democrats-indiana-216273


    The report, “Hope from the Heartland: How Democrats Can Better Serve the Midwest by Bringing Rural, Working Class Wisdom to Washington,” lands at a moment, of course, when Democrats are riled up with activist energy but also wrestling with themselves about the direction of their party—their most reliable areas of support having receded to cities, coasts and college towns. In contrast, this report is based on interviews with 72 Democrats who hail from none of those places but rather largely agricultural, blue-collar areas in the vast, eight-state center of the country. It will be distributed to local and regional party leaders as well as the most important Democrats on Capitol Hill. {Illinois Representative Cheri} Bustos shared an early copy exclusively with POLITICO.

    Bustos, although she remains relatively unknown nationally, in 2016 was reelected handily in her northwest Illinois district, which Donald Trump won, too. That accomplishment earned Bustos a bigger role in Washington. She’s the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee for House Democrats and the Chair of Heartland Engagement for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Her implicit task: to translate the desires of disaffected, rural, working-class Democrats who live where she lives back to the party’s distant Beltway leadership. But nobody at the DPCC or the DCCC or the Democratic National Committee commissioned this report. Bustos did. And she did it because she believes Democrats won’t win back control of Congress until they win back the trust (and the votes) of rural people in Middle America.


    Bustos represents my hometown district, ably represented from the time of my college days until ten or so years back by Lane Evans, whose health problems ended a very good career.

    The Politico reporter sums up the meeting with Bustos...

    Here in this not even 10-minute interaction, I thought, was the nub of the Bustos report—and the challenge it presents to party leaders who will be asked to grapple with its primary recommendation that Democrats focus on economic matters and steer clear of confrontation on contentious social issues. In theory, it seems obvious the party would do what it must to secure the loyalty of additional voters; in practice, though, this sort of overture means peace-making with people like Burns, through the face-to-face pragmatism of people like Goodin, some of whose views bump up inconveniently against the agendas of interest groups and the platform and mores of the party as a whole. Is Burns worth wooing back? And is Goodin a walking relic—or a key cog in the future of the party? Either way, as Goodin argued in his introductory address to the legislature, this should not constitute grounds for disqualification as a Democrat. “I have fired a gun a time or two, and I am familiar with the Scriptures,” he said. “Some might think that makes me an outcast in my own party. Nothing could be further from the truth. Our caucus is a caucus that values all points of view. There’s enough space for a farm boy like me, as well as woolly liberals.”​


    But I'm worried that too many Democrats have wedded the selves to ideas that, once you get more than ten feet away from the graduate seminar table, aren't going to resonate with anybody.
     
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  11. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    I think part of the problem is people projecting their own policy absolutes onto districts they know nothing about. People see a race in some remote area and everyone is full of opinions on what needs to be done, and how. But nobody has ever stepped foot in the district or met someone from there. A whole lot of lecturing and 'splainin', but not a whole lot of listening.

    Democrats need to get rid of some of their red lines if they want to be the party for everybody. The only red lines should be a commitment to basic human rights for everyone, a commitment to protect the US and a commitment to the institutions of freedom and democracy at home and abroad. After that people should not be excluded from the party based on differing opinions on things like abortion, guns, taxes, immigration, energy policy, Israel/Palestine etc ... There is nothing fundamentally evil about people having some differing views on these issues. If you want to be the "adult in the room" party, you need to have an open mind. Rational people sit down, listen to each others' views and craft a way forward where everyone has a little skin in the game. This is what it means to be a big tent party. If only 10-20% of your members are pro gun, in the end they won't get their way on the party platform anyways. But at least the other 80-90% listen and maybe make some compromising concessions that move the process forward.

    We face a complicated web of issues in this country. You can't expect every Democrat to fall in line on every issue 100% of the time. We don't need to nationalize every issue. Leave that for the presidential elections. Leave the rest in the hands of locals. Locals know best what their constituents want. Give people a little wiggle room. And this goes both ways. In some places this means more aggressively socialist Berniecrats, and that should be fine. They need a seat at the table too. The key here is to broaden the Democratic spectrum so we pick up voters from every direction.

    If our political system is so broken that Dems and Republicans can never compromise, let's at least show the other side how it's done. Let's show the American people that we can compromise amongst ourselves. Maybe then we can even aim for a 60% majority in the Senate. Maybe we can unleash a couple of decades of Democratic domination like the FDR-LBJ period.
     
  12. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But that would piss off Latinos, blacks and gays in some ways.

    As long as we are pissed at Trump we can be united, remove him and we will eat eachother.

    Sounds like the repugs and the Tea Party/Trumpist wing.
     
  13. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    This assumes an incorrect premise that a rust belt Democrat must really be a Trump Republican inside.

    I'm familiar with this district in PA. I have close family friends that live there in an intentional eco community with solar panel houses, natural spring water supply, farming, composting etc ... I also follow online a young guy that lives there who is an expert botanist, mycologist and forager. He's teaching me how to find the Eastern hemlock "ganoderma tsugae" mushroom in the wild, which I'm very interested in. There's another guy in a small central PA town (neighboring district) that I follow closely who is an expert permaculturalist, and teaches lower income people how to grow their own food, even in urban environments. Now, I don't know how these people vote ... but they do live pretty progressive lifestyles in the middle of "whitelandia" ...

    I have other anecdotal stories from the Kentucky side of Appalachia. A family friend and prototypical Republican stereotype. Older white guy in a town of 200 people. Small business owner, , goes to church, listens to country music and likes to fish. But you go to his business and he hires young black men with criminal backgrounds. You go to his house and his basement is full of Democratic yard signs going back to the 80's.

    Just saying ... writing people off is a poor strategy for winning a popularity contest. When you're selling something, you have to assume that everyone is a potential customer.
     
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  14. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    But we're good at that stuff, though. Gotta stick with what works! Eventually, the rubes will either learn what's good for them and listen to us, or die off.
     
  15. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    The Mrs and I lived in Greensburg for 20 years.
     
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  16. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok, so when running in those districts how should they answer on black lives matter or all lives matter? Should there be amnesty for illegal immigrants? what bathrooms should transsexuals use? What is your stand on Islamic terrorism?

    It is not just abortion and guns that blue dogs have to balance.

    To win many will have to take stands that will pissoff some of the hard core base.
     
  17. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    - It's important for all of our citizens to have a fair shake (politicians love that ********ing phrase). I support our police and believe that we need criminal justice reform.
    - No, except for DREAMers.
    - State issue.
    - Protecting America is of the utmost importance.

    If the hardcore base is getting upset about what some candidate in Western Arizona is saying, ******** 'em. They're not the audience.

    Besides that, there are 435 House seats up at a time. A candidate espousing views that aren't in line with urban liberals like me can slip under the radar, unlike a candidate in a special election.
     
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  18. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    #393 Boloni86, Jan 18, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
    That's where leadership and vision come into play. You need to convince people from very different walks of life to row in the same general direction. Or at least 50%+ of them.

    This is why I don't lose much sleep about Pelosi and Schumer keeping the caucus together 100%. I honestly don't care if a Democrat breaks ranks and votes across the aisle. You have to assume that they know what vote their constituents want. Otherwise they'd lose the next election.

    As long as you're on board with the majority of the Democratic platform, you should be allowed to dissent on a couple of issues. We don't need an Orwellian Democratic Party with the thought police running around. Like I said, there still need to be some minimum red lines, like standing for basic human rights and freedom for everyone. But if there's a Democrat in West Virginia who is soft on coal because 50% of his constituents would be unemployed without it, surely you can stop for a split second and at least consider his point of view.

    The way you asked your question about those 3 issues is already set up in a way designed to divide ... as if you can't be for "black lives matter" and "all lives matter" at the same time. Remember, those are just slogans. They're not actual policies. Remember that a lot of these divisive black and white purity tests are driven by Russian trolls. I've talked to BLM people in the past and nobody has put me on the spot like that. Most people understand that confrontation tends to shut down conversations. The angry black activist stereotype is another media myth designed to divide. In the real world most people want to be positive, optimistic and eager to make new friends.

    There's much more common ground than we give ourselves credit for. The politician's trick here is to shine a big bright light on the part where the venn diagram overlaps. Voting blocs are not monoliths. Even polls are very poor at understanding the intangible mood of voters. Complex nuanced issues are hard to quantify through simplified poll questions. It goes back to the analogy I made before ... If you're trying to sell an idea, you have to assume that everyone is a potential customer.
     
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  19. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    There is room for nuance. For example, dems can say it's OK to be against abortion so long as you support access to contraception, prenatal care, health care for children, etc.
     
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  20. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    DCCC officially going for it in PA-18

    956967518480011266 is not a valid tweet id
     
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  21. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This asshat called Devin Nunes should be one of the top targets for the DCCC next year. His district largest paper ripped him a new one this week.

    The Fresno Bee, the largest newspaper in Rep. Devin Nunes’s (R-CA) district, ripped the GOP lawmaker in a scathing editorial:

    What, pray tell, does Rep. Devin Nunes think he’s doing by waving around a secret memo attacking the FBI, the nation’s premier law enforcement agency?

    He certainly isn’t representing his Central Valley constituents or Californians, who care much more about health care, jobs and, yes, protecting Dreamers than about the latest conspiracy theory.
    Instead, he’s doing dirty work for House Republican leaders trying to protect President Donald Trump in the Russia investigation.
     
  22. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

    Sep 7, 1999
    Winner!

    Now that I'm back in the Rust Belt, I talk to a lot of folks who voted Trump. Not many people like him but found it to be a better alternative than the name that brought NAFTA. Farmers hate the Clintons from the 90s. That doesn't mean they like Trump. When people tell me how they wish Obama could run again, I can't blame their voting on racism. Dems aren't as screwed as people think.
     
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  23. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But..but... I keep being told that people that voted for Obama and then voted for trump due to "economic anxiety" are all racist and sexist that should lose their voting privileges*.


    * Same for all those Sandernistas that voted Trump.
     
  24. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    You know someone can be racist and still have voted for Obama. Being racist is not just restricted to those who burn crosses every Friday night.
     
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  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But you want those racist voting for Democrats over republicans, shit if not a single homophone, sexist, racist, bigot voted for the Democrats, the party will get basically zero votes (or get about the same as the green party).

    There had to be something to get those racist to vote for a black man over a white women (Voted Obama but not Clinton) so why did they vote against their racism 1 or 2 times before? how can the Democrats get them to vote the same way again?
     

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