MLS sets timetable for expansion to 28 teams, $150M fee for teams No. 25, 26 Sports Illustrated Here's the previous thread: The Next Four MLS Expansion Cities Will Be.... A LOT has changed since I posted this question in January 2016. The four cities on top were: 1st place: Sacramento 2nd/3rd place: Tied between San Antonio and St. Louis 4th place: Indianapolis This time, Indianapolis isn't even mentioned in the top ten, nor are Austin, Las Vegas, Louisville (Though they have been making their own noise), nor Pittsburgh. Also this time, Miami went from "Definitely coming to MLS", to "We have a deadline set for them. We'll see". So essentially, we now unofficially have FIVE expansion spots that will be filled, with likely 2 of them being announced by the 3rd quarter of next year, as well as either Miami's expansion date or Miami's being crossed off the list by the end of 2017. Of course, "Other" is for just in case another Cincinnati or Nashville story pops up. It very well could happen again. Alright, who ya got?! Who will be teams #24, #25, #26, #27, and #28?!
Here's more insight as to where the 10 expansion candidates minus Miami stand at the moment: The 10 cities in the mix for an MLS expansion team Fox Sports
I know the Europhiles want an exact replica of the EPL, but we are such a different sporting market than England. Moreover, fans who think we are watering down talent by expansion are not paying attention. The truth is that, done right, we really need to be looking at a 40 team league. Regarding pro/rel, we've beat that argument to death, and to be honest, it's a dumb system anyways...even from a fan perspective. I want to know each year, that my team has a shot at the championship. I don't really care to spend years in the dungeons of the lower leagues if my team has a bad year. We differ from England due to size... you are already immersed into the league due to the fact that you are no more than an hour drive (at most) to another top tier team. Whereas, in America, if your team gets relegated, you may not have another team within a day's drive. Personally, I prefer more of a NFL model than a EPL model. Secondly, expansion has only helped the player pool. This country is so big that anything short of 40 teams with their own academies is not maximizing the potential of the league. Academies not the SuperDraft needs to be the driving force of recruitment, and academies need to be able to develop local talent. The only way to reach all the local talent, is by adding more teams to the league. Lastly, only when we can prove that 35-40 markets are ready to support MLS at the same standard can we even start to have promotion/relegation talks. I don't care to watch FC Edmonton or Laredo Heat playing for the MLS championship out of a high school stadium.
My picks right now 1. Cincinnati 2. Sacramento 3. Saint Louis 4. San Antonio 5. Charlotte The next year is going to be very competitive for those spots.
Sacto and StL are clearly in the lead. No others would be a surprise either way for inclusion at 28. I absolutely expect Miami and Detroit by 32, but that's a different question.
I'm playing devil's advocate and they'll go by largest TV markets and known geographical holes. Cinci is too small at this time and so is San Antonio. Tampa is bigger than Miami and seems to have it's act together better. Florida doesn't have enough population to warrant three teams (MLS seems to be going for a distribution of 1 team per 10 million people in a state). Detroit would give Michigan a team to root for, as would a team in either Charlotte or Rayleigh/Durham (the latter has a better plan and owner at this time). Sacramento would push out San Diego as I don't see more than 4 teams in California.
Tampa is bigger than Miami only if one does not include the Palm Beach area. The Tampa TV market also includes a far larger number outside the metro area than Miami. And Tampa lacks the international cachet of Miami. That matters to famous people. And Sacramento and San Diego don't affect each other. They're over 500 miles apart. California is really big; driving from the NW corner to the SE would take 14 hours. Thinking of it as a single place because it's a unified political entity is a mistake. Take me as an example. When I tell people I'm from California, it's not the one they think of first. Or second. Yet the Central Valley has a larger population than two-thirds of the states.
Phase 1: 25. West 1: Sacramento (or San Diego, Vegas, Phoenix) 26. East 2: Saint Louis (or Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Louisville, Rochester, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Cleveland, Detroit) 27. West 1: San Antonio (or Austin, Tulsa, El Paso, OKC) 28. East 2: Charlotte (or Raleigh, Nashville, Jacksonville, Birmingham, Tampa Bay) *split the league in west/east 14 conference. Play same conference 2 (26 games), outside conference 1 (+14 games). *goal: finish by 2023. Phase 2: *32 teams *Break the league into 4, 8 conferences. Play inside conference twice, 14 games, and 24 games outside of conference. 38 games. Winner and Runner up from each conference make play offs. *goal: finish by 2030.
It will be very interesting to see how many applications are filed by the January 31 deadline. The 150M fee, plus another 150M or so in stadium costs for most cities, will separate the men from the boys. From a business perspective this must be a hard league to assess. On one hand there is no question that there is a decent base of game-day fan support in many markets. On the other hand, the potential for significant TV revenue seems limited. There's just no interest in MLS soccer among "casual" sports fans. Tonight while at a party in the DC area I met someone from Seattle. Having no other connection to the city I mentioned how much I admire the Sounders organization. I got a blank stare from the bearded hipster. Thirty minuted later I ran into someone from Toronto. On a whim I said the same thing. Aside from a vague recognition that Toronto has a soccer team, all I got was a question about why I think that soccer isn't more popular in America. When a few minutes later I encountered someone from Atlanta I said I admired how much the city is supporting the new team. The response was "Oh, I know someone who is a soccer fan." I'd be pretty cautious if I was considering spending 300M to get in on MLS.
My guess ... Sacramento Miami St. Louis San Antonio Somewhere in the South - Charlotte/Raleigh-Durham/or Nashville
EXPANSION RACE ALERT: St. Louis's expansion bid MIGHT have taken a major snag. If the new governor there is serious about trying to stop public funding for their stadium, they'll likely either have to go fully private, or we can scratch St. Louis off the list: Missouri's governor-elect: St. Louis MLS stadium plan is 'welfare for millionaires' Sports Illustrated
Personally I vote for fans assuming they check MLS requirements. I think what Sacramento and Cincinnati are doing is truly remarkable. The idea that those two great fan bases and cities get looked over seems like missed opportunities. Hard to believe how much expansion talk has changed since 2005 round.
EXPANSION RACE ALERT: Nashville gets a major boost. Ownership: Check. Nashville finds owner to lead potential MLS team as expansion bid gets stronger Fox Sports
Cincinnati might have met it's first semi-roadblock: Columbus Crew Might Object To MLS Team In Cincinnati Columbus Dispatch Louisville might still attempt to come up as 2017's "Other" vote: Louisville City FC talks new stadium, MLS expansion NBC Louisville Oklahoma City will NOT become an "Other" anytime soon. OKC Energy ownership will not apply for next month's MLS expansion bid News OK
We call those 'divisions' in this country. If 2 = conferences. If 3 or more = divisions. Spot on with the schedule & plans, however.
I would disagree with those characterizations. Divisions are sub-parts of conferences. The number of them is not the main factor. Colleges sports have a bunch of conferences some of which have two divisions. The big 4 pro leagues all have two conferences right now with multiple (NHL with 2 each, MLB and NBA with 3, NFL with 4) divisions below that but the NHL talked seriously about going to 4 conferences a few years ago. Right now USL is talking about 3 conferences when they get to 36 teams. I would like to see MLS go to 4 conferences when the league gets to 28 teams. I think it would make the playoffs more interesting and much easier to get the two best teams into the final.
Seeing where things are at the moment with Missouri's next governor, it is very possible that Miami AND St. Louis may be excluded in the next five expansion cities.
St. Louis is the big question mark. The fan base is clearly there, just a matter if the city gets behind the team. If Beckham gets behind bringing his team to Tampa Bay, it'll be one of the five. #1. Sacramento (2018) #2. Tampa Bay (2019) #3. Cincinnati (2019) #4. San Antonio (2020) #5. Charlotte/Raleigh (2020)
I here people talk about the ST Louis fan base. If you watch their USL games, where was the fan base because it wasn't at the stadium. Yes the population is there, but do they have a fan base?