The long overdue and frank discussion about the US Midfield 2018-2022

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Deadtigers, Apr 7, 2018.

  1. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Could be but a few could possibly show so well at a lesser club they get bought by a bigger one. They'd have to really impress though. Sometimes it's really hard to tell how a player will do in a better team / league. Some will falter while others will actually look better being with other players who make the correct runs and passes.
     
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  2. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Sean Davis is 25.

    Dempsey, during the '12-'13 season, made 29 appearances for Spurs who finished 1 point off the UCL places. With Fulham, he finished fourth in the FWA Footballer of the Year voting. He was already a World Cup vet by the time he left for the EPL.

    Cameron had physical tools beyond those of almost all of his domestically produced contemporaries.
     
  3. Deadtigers

    Deadtigers Member+

    Jul 23, 2015
    Independent Republic of the Bronx, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ghana
    That is the drag of the MLS, it is like the Mexican league in the 90s. The soup is too good at home so guys won't leave but for the good of the National team, these guys need to leave. Even the English Championship would be a good and different challenge. But that is hard to just go to so they would have to start in Sweden or something like that.
     
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  4. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Culturally, the C'ship and EPL would be ideal landing spots for the elite MLS-based player. But the work permit requirements mean very few are eligible.
     
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  5. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    Exactly. Dempsey made it further than any other 3-4-year college player maybe ever will. He left MLS around 24. He played five years at a mid-table team in a Top 4 league then moved to a Europa League contending team at 29 and played one year. Thus, the implied ceiling for 4-year college players who are 22-24 would be, best case scenario so far, semi-starter for a Europa League contending team at the end of your prime for a short while.

    If Cameron had grown up in the current DA/Academy system for an MLS team that actually integrates their HG players into the first team (so many big IFs haha), and had thus turned pro at 17-18, he would have probably progressed past Stoke. He still probably could have gotten a move to a Top 6 EPL team to be a bench player, but seemed very happy at Stoke.

    The world football market was different then too. In the current market, 22-24 year olds are not considered young or prospects. Thus, MLS players in that age range will either have to be locked in USMNT starters to move to a Top league, or move to a secondary league and then move on (the latter being more likely).

    Tyler Adams, otoh, could move in the next 12 months and be 19-20. He could play in Holland or Belgium for 2 years, then move to a mid-table Bundesliga club at 21-22. Far before his prime, He would then be able to spend his entire prime at a UCL club, if he is good enough.

    At the beginning of the 2000s, teenagers did get PT in MLS. Bradley had 30 appearances for NY in MLS at 17. He then moved to Holland for 2 years, then to a Bundesliga club then a Serie A club then to a part time starter role with a UCL/Europa team in Roma at 25. Teenagers are getting minutes again in a few cases, but unlike 2004, MLS is not selling any of them.

    We can get Adams, if he is good enough and plays out his contract, to a UCL type team by 2022. McKennie is almost there already. The other guys in MLS we are talking about: Trapp, Hayes, Roldan, Delgado, Davis, etc., they are all in the age range where they will probably not get there. Parks, 20, at Benfica could be a third. Then you have youth prospects like Booth, Hoffman, Carelton, etc.
     
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  6. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Spurs finished 1 point off UCL.

    Dempsey is just 1 player. There is no implied ceiling that can be reasonably inferred from his experience.

    Non-youth team players have generally needed to be NT players to garner serious interest from the top leagues.

    Was 22-24 ever really considered a young prospect in Europe?

    Perhaps yesterday's MLS teens who would have been sold bypass MLS for Europe today.

    There are many paths to being an elite contributor on the US team. Going to Europe at a young age is only one of them.
     
  7. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Maybe some of the "older" 24 year olds can move to the Italian league. They seem to still like older players.
     
  8. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    Friedel made it to an EPL top four team at age 40! We just need more guys to start hitting their prime at 36.
     
  9. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Perhaps not from only CD's experience but MLS has never developed a Big 4 UCL player (who has played significant UCL minutes in more than a single season) AFAIK. That's pretty reliable data that will hopefully change as time progresses.

    Our best bet is with defenders who have a longer career span.
     
  10. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Tim Howard got a couple of seasons of UCL ball with ManU.
    McKennie's Schalke are in 2nd place.
     
  11. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    Just saying he has gone the farthest. Is there another college to MLS player with a better career?

    Sure, which is why the Olympics are U23. But with FIFA considering scrapping the U20 and U17 WCs for a single U19 WC, 18 is the new 22...

    That is possible. I'm not saying you can't contribute either, especially presently. But, imo, the US will not be competing with Brazil, France, Spain and Germany until most of our players are in the UCL knock out rounds consistently. We are nowhere near there of course. Just empirically, on a small data set, the path to the UCL doesn't seem to include 3+ years of college or playing in MLS past 24.

    The path to the USMNT in the meantime is much more forgiving. You can argue about needing UCL players to win the World Cup, but the past 20 years (maybe even longer) have shown you do. The correlation between UCL players and success is much stronger than the strength of your domestic league, for example. Not sure anything correlates besides having the bulk of your roster playing at that level.

    We had one, committed, player in the UCL this past season; and he didn't get past the group stage.
     
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  12. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    #162 Patrick167, Apr 26, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
    Parks, Saief, Pulisic, McKennie, could all be in the UCL next year. Many USMNT players have been in the UCL in the past. We have a drought this past year, coincides with some of the worse USMNT form for some reason...

    Goal keepers are just different. Hamid could be in the UCL in his prime, but he didn't move to Denmark until this year, I think he is 27. But the odds would have been much better, if he is good enough, if he had left at 23 or 24.
     
  13. Excellency

    Excellency Member+

    LA Galaxy
    United States
    Nov 4, 2011
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Just referring to your recent posts collectively:

    Setting our goal as winning a WC doesn't make much sense when it leads to the logic that says we should have a team with xi who play in UCL.

    Germany is a powerhouse not because their players all play in the UCL but because they come up thru the domestic league. Sure, the best ones end up on UCL teams because those teams have the most money to spend.

    Look at Italy and Spain. Same deal. David Villa & Co played for RM and Barca. Argentina which should win by your formula has the best players in the world all playing in UCL and can't seem to win it lately. Look at Belgium always under-performing.

    i.o.w, if we want to get all "objective" (not the way to go imo) we should be developing the domestic league to the level where our 2 or 3 best teams play at UCL level and keep our talent home.

    Let's make up our own rules as we go along and do it our way. My own preference would be to send guys who aren't much good to Europe like K.Acosta and T.Adams and keep the more talented home. The only problem I see is the lack of high standard at individual MLS teams where our players would be playing. I think that is changing - slowly. Playing for Bradley's LAFC is certainly better for a 22 yr old midfielder than playing for Siggy's Retirement home. Durkin playing for DC isn't going to help him much once they start mailing it in. Hayes having to play with Acosta is going to kill his game. Wenger was never going to turn into anything at Houston. Carleton at Atlanta is certainly a challenging first step - in a good way - even if it doesn't work out. Marsch isn't lacking in effort at RedBulls.
     
  14. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Friedel and McBride had Dempsey-level College-->MLS-->Europe careers. Yedlin looks to be continuing the trend.

    The Olympics aren't part of UEFA, which don't hold a U23 Championship. The oldest underage competition UEFA holds is the U-21 Championship.

    Having players in UCL-knockout rounds is a signifier of quality, not a determiner. Brazil were winning World Cups before their top players filled out UEFA squads. Players go to Europe because Europe pay more; they don't go for the magic pixie dust. At first, the players went exclusively to Western Europe. Then big spending Eastern European teams came on the scene and started scooping up young Brazilians, Africans, and Slavs. Now, young, talented South American players are even starting to rock-up in the US. Why? Because MLS upped its money game.
     
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  15. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Using only the winner of the WC rather than finalists or semi finalists is silly.

    Even in that case, two of the last five WC were won outside of the Big 4. Separately, Argentina, France and the Netherlands have all been finalists.
     
  16. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    The goal is to win the WC. If that isn't your goal, fine, but you would be a weird outlier then. I'm not saying how to do it, just showing how it has been done. Argentina lost to Germany, another squad deep with UCL players. Not sure what that point is. If you wan to win it, you need the players. Getting it done in a knock-out tournament against other teams with the same quality players is a different matter. At that point it is probably coaching, individual skill and luck.

    I think you are getting lost in the weeds. We need a roster heavy with UCL players. How they get there is up to them and the American development system. Germany, Spain, France, Argentina, and Brazil have figured it out. England has the players, they never do well though, maybe because in England the club football is so much more important that the players hate each other and can't come together as a team. So, having the players is a minimum; not a guarantee.

    Having MLS progress to the point where playing in MLS is equivalent to playing in the UCL is never going to happen. Not in our lifetimes. There is too much of a head start to overcome. Throw in the fact that if MLS ever had players approaching that level they would immediately be poached of talent. Like how Bayern Munich buys Hoffenheim's best players or Liverpool buy Southhampton's.

    The UCL will be the pinnacle for the foreseeable future. No way around that. MLS just needs to function like the Brazilian or Argentinian league for our players to maximize their potential.

    Mexico has never done much at any World Cup even though they have a large population of rabid soccer fans and players. Soccer is everything there. But they don't usually have more than ~3 players in the knock out rounds of the UCL in any given year either. Their league is better than ours, their culture is more supportive, they have more players, but there have been periods over the past 20 years when we have been better. Mexico develops players to a certain level, but has never pushed many into the UCL.
     
  17. Excellency

    Excellency Member+

    LA Galaxy
    United States
    Nov 4, 2011
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    I'm in the weeds and I'm lost; you need to get your head out of the clouds and start wacking weeds.:)
     
  18. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    Yedlin played one year of college and was a pro in MLS at 19. He was in Europe at 22. He is not an example of someone playing 3-4 years of college and entering a pro career at 22 and getting minutes in MLS at 23-24. He will probably never play for a top UCL level club though. You have to have the will, the time, and skill. I think he has the first two (Donovan had the last two).

    What does UEFA have to do with it? At some point, 22 was a young player. That has shifted back. At the time the Olympics were changed to a U23 tournament, someone must have thought that was a youth age. Whatever, unless you want to argue that 23 is young and considered a prospect in 2018, it makes no difference. Look at the Superdraft versus HG player mechanisms. Which are squad filler and which are prospects?

    Yes, Pele never played in the UCL. Any other ancient history?

    Of course it is a signifier of quality not a determiner!!!! DUH!!! That is my point. It isn't like USSF could pay Tottenham a $billion to start 11 Americans in the UCL next year and we would be WC contenders. We need players that good, we don't have them. When our players at that good they will be there. Hope I live that long! No, they will never be that good playing in MLS or Liga MX or for Hamburg or Stoke.

    This is not an anti-MLS argument. You guys are so thin skinned. This is simply looking at the teams that have a realistic shot to win the WC in any given year, looking at their squads, and using common sense.
     
  19. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    2014 World Cup Silver Medalists, Argentina, only had 5 players in '13-'14 UCL ko rnd teams. Heck, England have more than that and are really just a WC quarterfinal/ko rnd team.
     
  20. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Was 3-4 years college going to make Yedlin slower? There's too much deterministic thinking in all of this.

    UEFA recognizes youth players as U21s.

    Pele? Brasil won the '94 WC with only 1 '93-'94 UCL Group Stage player. Half the team played Brasil.

    In order to win the WC, we need to get players into UCL, but doing so is not in any way a determiner of talent? The refs will favor our players then? Is that it?
     
  21. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    2002 World Cup winner, Brasil, had 3 '01-'02 UCL Second Group Stage players. And half the team played for Brasilian clubs.

    Today's environment is all about the concentration of wealth. Players don't get better playing for PSG. But they make a lot of money.
     
  22. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Here's something pulled from another thread. I think the CM positions are the most important ones for the USMNT and where we need to build around

    I look at this and see a huge drop off from McKennie and Adams.

    How would everyone sort the players into the following buckets wrt ceiling? This is not where they play now but where do you think they could maximize at as a consistent rotational player.

    High ceiling (Big 4 UCL potential):
    • Adams (rising)
    • McKennie (rising)
    Good ceiling (Top 125 team* potential, lower half of Big 4)
    • Morales (peaked)
    • Williams (peaked)
    Modest ceiling (top 250 team* potential ~ top quartile player in MLS/B2/Championship):
    • Trapp (peaked)
    • Lletget (peaked)
    • Roldan (peaked even though he's not old)
    • Nagbe (peaked)
    • Bradley (declining)
    • Delgado (peaked even though he's not old)
    • Green (peaked even though he's not old)
    I don't know
    • Boyd
    • Pomykal
    • Mihailovic
    * per 538
     
  23. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    I'd put Holmes in the Good Ceiling with a Rising.

    Then it is young players and who knows where to put Cerillo, Mendez, Ledezma, Booth, Hoffman, etc.
     
  24. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Is Holmes a central midfielder? I think of him as a wing player.
     
  25. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    The games I've watched he was a CAM, but that isn't many. I think he broke in the team like most guys breaking into a team at a higher level, on the wing. They probably use him in either spot depending on game plan. I do think he could play GB's 8/10.
     

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