I feel similarly about Brown. My top 5, in terms of chance of winning the nomination, is in some order of Harris, Biden, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Brown.* * - opinions subject to change for like, no reason.
You can take that however you want. I'm not the one tagging you out of the blue and demanding an answer to a question framed in contemptuous, name-calling language. My refusal to do your bidding has ******** all to do with what I would do in a hypothetical scenario in the future.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/14/politics/cnn-poll-2020-democrats-beto-orourke-rising/index.html Biden - 30 (-3) Sanders - 14 (+1) O'Rourke - 9 (+5) Booker - 5 (-) Harris - 4 (-5) Kerry - 4 (-1) Warren - 3 (-5) Bloomberg - 3 (-1) Klobuchar - 3 (+2) Holder, Gillibrand, Bullock, Brown, Inslee, McAuliffe - 1 The Des Moines Register is putting out their first Iowa poll tomorrow.
(Regarding voting for Sanders) If I lived in a swing state. Against Trump, fvck yes. Against a Rubio or Romney or someone of that type, probably yes, mostly due to the Supreme court, but I would definitely feel a little dirty. Now, I am in Illinois, so most likely I will vote 3rd party anyways
Biden wouldn't be a bad choice--I can understand the argument for him--but I'd prefer it not be him. O'Rourke, if we're gonna go white guy. Brown would be an enticing VP pick, especially if Harris (my favorite) or some other woman gets the nod. I'm actually kinda optimistic about the race this time. The party seems to be focused on rallying the base against Trump and casting as wide a net as possible; and the electorate seems to be willing to consider a wide range of options, and are looking forward rather than backward. I also hope that whoever wins the nomination will understand that she or he MUST work closely with party leaders in Congress. I think circumstances and the voters will see to it that the nominee gets that message. If that happens--I won't say it doesn't matter who gets the nod because of course that's not true, but to a large degree the 2020 election is about beating the other guy not who our gal/guy is, AND reversing the damage the GOP has done. I have my opinions on who is better for that, but part of me thinks the dynamics of this election are going to transcend any individual candidate.
You guys have made me click TWO Cillizza articles today! I'm surprised how low Harris is in this one.
I was too, but I think it makes sense without having looked at the crosstabs, so I could be super off base here. Harris and O'Rourke might be going after the same audience, that being progressive-leaning types who want a young candidate. Since the Kavanaugh hearings, Harris has been relatively quiet, while O'Rourke has been a media darling, both in traditional media and in Pod Save America land. So, he goes up, she goes down. Booker's steadiness, then, can be attributed to the fact that those people aren't his audience, because those voters are put off by his Wall Street ties.
That's possible. And of course, this poll is largely people who are paying attention this far in advance!
Beto was born in 1972. Harris was born in 1964. She'll be 56 when she runs, not really young. She's NEW, but not young.
And again: Bernie's people are attacking O'Rourke. They're not going after Kamala. I won't go so far as to call him the favorite. It's going to be very interesting to see if he's able to do better with people of color than Bernie did in 2016, tho.
Texas is less white than Vermont, but I have not seen exit polls for his Senate race this year. To win in El Paso you probably need a good number of Latino vote (to survive primaries).
It's not president, it's Congress, but Big Papa is planning to run for Congress in 2020. Black don't crack.
This is very true. But you need black folks to win democratic primaries, and I suspect if I was black I'd be eager as hell to vote for Kamala or Booker. And if I was a black woman, I bet I'd be able to narrow down the decision-making process even more. If Kamala dominates with that constituency, the whole thing might be a fait accompli. I think the one really big wager I'd make for 2020 is that she's on the ticket. I could see Beto winning and choosing her as VP, and vice versa. I could also see Uncle Joe winning, promising to serve only one term, and choosing her as VP/presumed 2024 nominee. There has to be a woman on the ticket, and probably a person of color.
56 is super young compared to a lot of the alternatives Dems have had post Obama. As long as people like Biden, Sanders, Kerry and Bloomberg are still in the running, Harris still falls in the young category IMO. I consider "young" being anyone that can serve out two terms and still retire at a reasonable age ... somewhere around 63 to 67. What I worry about is a Democratic president over 80.
Because I’m bored Yep, I've see you trot that out before. It's kind of funny that you're showing a poll from a long while ago instead of the 2018 poll that just came out literally last month.You don't know how to update your memes? BTW, what is it about the poll you hate? Its methodology? Haha pic.twitter.com/2e3cFskgec— Cowicide (@Cowicide) December 15, 2018
Flame if you must, but idk how you can think Sanders is a frontrunner or really all that close to it when he has near universal name id, can't hit 20% in IA or nationally in high quality polls, and is double digits behind Biden.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) December 16, 2018 I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary, and overall I think he's been fantastic for the discourse in this country. But I think he's got no chance. His window closed.
They said he had no chance in early 2015 as well...let’s not rehash that though. Today, he’s got to much baggage. The vitriol and visceral hate for him would guarantee a trump reelection...we’re kind of stuck with whoever is anointed by the (uni)party this time around...my kids can’t afford two terms of what we have now
lol @ people who say Bernie has no chance, but somehow Harris or Booker or Klobuchar do even though they're in single digits. Way to let your bias overpower your logic. Maybe some people need to take a deep breath and realize that nobody significant has declared their candidacy yet so you have no way to know what to expect. If the entire media/corporate/party machine unites against Bernie, don't be surprised if he wins. If you really hate Bernie that much, I suggest toning it down a little and just let it run its course.
Doing better with POC than Bernie did in 2016 is a pretty low bar for a Democrat this time around, tbh. Beto's not likely to insist that Black Southern Democrats don't really count, for one thing. But, IMHO, anybody who's expecting Beto to swoop in and be the great White liberal savior like a new RFK hasn't been paying attention the past two years.
lol ... I love it when people make broad assumptions about genders and ethnic groups. Still waiting on dapip's rationalization for how Florida Hispanics split their vote almost evenly last month. Must be all that white racism that's growing in the Hispanic community. lol ... There's nothing more precious than race/gender splainin' from the left. Meanwhile polling still shows that only about 29% of Americans self identify as Democrats. That number used to be closer to 35% just a decade ago. The Trump crisis is not driving people to the party in droves. So by all means, instead of focusing on unity, keep playing the identity politics card. It's not enough that we're polarized on the national stage. We have to make sure that we divide the Dem base along ethnic/gender lines too. You would think that after the DNC leaks, Dems would check themselves on these things. But two years later it seems like the instinct to divide the left is as strong as ever.
Out of Harris, Booker, and Klobucher--how many of them ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party while not being able to win the non-white vote? Granted, none of them have yet proven that they CAN do that, but Sanders has already shown that he can't. Sanders hit his ceiling in 2016. At least one caucus state (Nebraska) has ditched the caucus for the primary, and I'm not sure any states have gone the other way. I've seen nothing to suggest that he's going to try a different approach in 2020 than he did in 2016, and he no longer is the only viable option to Hillary Clinton. He's got a strong base of support--maybe a more robust and reliable base than any other feasible candidate, actually--but I don't see any realistic scenario where he expands his appeal beyond that base enough to win. Normally, I'd say a poll two years out doesn't tell us much of anything, but Sanders has more or less been campaigning in fact if not in name since Nov. of 2016, and so I doubt there are very many Democrats left who haven't largely made their minds up about him. I could be wrong--things could happen I don't foresee, whether it's other candidates imploding or Bernie himself showing more political savvy and adaptability than I gave him credit for--and he could end up as our nominee. I'm not gonna bet money I can't afford to lose against him, but then again I'm not a betting man. I just don't see it. No amount of lashing out at Democrats who don't like him, calling us emotional or biased or ignorant, is going to do much to help him build the broader coalition he's going to need to move beyond the base he--quite surprisingly--built up in 2015-2016 but hasn't really grown since.
The point is that young POC, especially young Hispanics are not running towards the party. They are the fastest growing demographic in America. So if the default logic is that Hispanics are Democrats by birthright, we should be seeing a much stronger correlation there. My point is that the party is losing young people of all races, and this internal finger pointing doesn't help. The message that people like superdave are sending is that the progressive wing of the party is the enemy. Not only are they the enemy, but they're also indifferent to racial justice issues. To be fair, the far left does the same with their "corporate democrat" nonsense. They're also trying to divide the left, except not along ethnic lines, but ideological purity lines. As for the nomination, my whole original point is that I'm still sticking to the first part of the thread title ... "it's too early to talk about 2020" I don't think Bernie has a chance either, but it's a pointless opinion since he isn't even running yet. What gets on my nerves is people already ganging up on him, and he's not even running. My warning to people is to not forget the lessons of 2016. The stronger the media/establishment narrative lectures people on how to vote, the more likely that people will do the opposite. If you really hate Bernie that much, just ignore him and let him crash and burn on his own.