So I'm becoming convinced that XGoals is an easy excuse to justify poor performance, whenever I tweet about it the guys behind it get all snarky, so I got digging into it this afternoon. Looking at xGD for vs actual GD for each game over Curtin's full tenure (not interim year) I came up with xPoints Calculation. +/- .5 xGD was my cutoff for an "expected" 1 point draw. I get the following: Depending on how much stock you put into these xG stats you can say Curtin's tenure is about what we should "expect" and he's really only 3 points under expectations. If you are Earnie and specifically looking at the time frame that he has been at the healm Jimmy is technically "over performing" going year by year. The Union fall WELL below the playoff line which as we all know, was awful. But based on xG they were supposed to finish 4 points out of the playoff picture anyway, so no big deal for coach's first full year. Big under performance in terms of xPts, but still. First year.. whatever. Earnie isn't here yet. 2016 Season, the Union achieve well over their "expected" points, and they end up over the playoff line which according to xG they should have had no business being there. Even though they clearly backed into the playoffs in 2016 this looks like a huge success when you look at the xG element of things. 2017 is similar to 2015. The Union xG/xPts is below where the playoff line is.. only this year even though the Union do miss the playoffs they actually over achieve and finish 3 points above where they were expected. Another feather in Jimmy's hat. (despite another sucky season) Once again xGs make it look like the Union are actually over performing. This season I think we are seeing a bit of the otherside of the xG scapegoat... this year the team is actually under performing with xG and at this point in the season according to xG should be above the playoff line. After two years of "overperforming" it's easy to point at their "expected numbers" and say we had some bad luck. This is why I'm not a fan of the stat. It's interesting but I think it just writes excuses and/or explanations for the teams that need one, and Curtin has mentioned it specifically in press conferences this year so we know the Union are looking at it in some capacity. Honestly it wouldn't shock me if Earnie is looking at things this way. Apparently it isn't popular to mention that. Maybe I'm just crazy.
I have spent most of my career now watching people figure out how to make mediocre and outright shitty performance numbers look good. Woo hoo we made 99% of our yearly goal!!!! .... of 80% first pass yield ...
I am still skeptical of using metrics as the sole measure of success/failure. It's a very dangerous slope for sports and businesses. Using metrics to help make better informed decisions is a good thing. Using metrics as the main decision driver? Not a good thing. Numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Numbers can also be manipulated.
Most good (honest) implementations involve many metrics engineered so that rigging or somehow manipulating one of them in an unnatural way adversely affects another one. Actually the main value isn't so much what happened but correlating the data of an unwanted event so that you can predict and prevent it in the future. But yea common sense has to rule. If that data says a player over 30 that has played x min in x weeks has a 40% higher rate of injury is LA going to leave Zlatan out of the MLS cup final? Anyway we aren't that good. My personal opinion is that it's not just a lack of talent. I think we should be doing better with the players we have even if that means a more "boring" or "standard" form of soccer on the field. Thats just my gut + 40 years playing and watching the game. The only numbers I have to back that up are the ones that effect the standings and ultimately it's very frustrating how the FO can keep looking past that and not make any real changes.
I actually like this response from Curtin a lot: Jim Curtin's full quote from today's media availability about the decision-making process to go to VAR for the second penalty ending with "(Stoica) enjoyed making that call." pic.twitter.com/trlJIBoXFA— Joe Tansey (@JTansey90) June 4, 2018
Agree. I think the rules around VAR aren't the best but the ref shouldn't be unnaturally influencing the game to accommodate it. I think the jab at the end is so that even if he gets fined for it you know the issue raised in the whole statement will have to get looked at.
I like his points on VAR, but it was a handball (arm extended above his head, blocks the cross). Up 1-0 or 7-0 it was a penalty. How neither the center or the AR didn't even flinch when it happened is beyond me. Reverse the teams and if that isn't call, we collectively lose our shit.
His point was that Atlanta was about to put the ball in play and the referee told them to stop.Once play restarts that's it.
Does the sporting director have the right to pick his own coach at the time of his own choosing? Yeah. The way we’re set up, the sporting director governs the technical side of the club. Ultimately, that is their choice. But I believe anybody we hire will be thoughtful and very judicious, and weigh the evidence of Jim’s successes recently and the progress we’ve made. I don’t see any reason to make a change just for change’s sake right now, but that’s not ownership’s call. We’ve said to ourselves that a sporting director who is good enough to be our sporting director should be making that call, not us. Strap in. They are going to hire a GM that will be favorable to Curtin. calling it now. They don't want anyone that will rock the boat. Remarkable that Jim, a Sak-era hire who was with the club since the Nowak regime will be on his third GM.
Kings come and kings go but one thing remains the same. And that is me. Though, on second thought, he's really more of a Claudius than a Richelieu.
Jim Curtin has now earned 166 points in 135 MLS matches with the Philadelphia Union. Year: W - L - T (PPG) - GF/GA 2014: 7 - 5 - 6 (1.5) - 29/24 2015: 10 - 17 - 7 (1.09) - 42/55 2016: 11 - 14 - 9 (1.24) - 52/55 2017: 11 - 14 - 9 (1.24) - 50/47 2018: 5 - 7 - 3 (1.20) - 16/21 Total: 44 - 57 - 34 (1.23) - 189/202 Curtin's first 11 matches: 6 - 2 - 3 (1.91 PPG) Curtin's last 124 matches: 38 - 55 - 31 (1.17 PPG) John Hackworth earned 89 points in 73 matches: 23 - 30 - 20 (1.22 PPG) Peter Nowak earned 87 points in 75 matches: 21 - 30 - 24 (1.16 PPG)
Philadelphia Union All Time: 88W - 117L - 78D 1.21pts/gm GF 366 GA 403 GD -37 Home: 62W - 38L - 42D 1.61pts/gm Road: 26W - 70L - 36D 0.81pts/gm
Jim Curtin has now earned 169 points in 138 MLS matches with the Philadelphia Union. Year: W - L - T (PPG) - GF/GA 2014: 7 - 5 - 6 (1.5) - 29/24 2015: 10 - 17 - 7 (1.09) - 42/55 2016: 11 - 14 - 9 (1.24) - 52/55 2017: 11 - 14 - 9 (1.24) - 50/47 2018: 6 - 9 - 3 (1.17) - 21/27 Total: 45 - 59 - 34 (1.22) - 194/208 Curtin's first 11 matches: 6 - 2 - 3 (1.91 PPG) Curtin's last 127 matches: 39 - 57 - 31 (1.17 PPG) John Hackworth earned 89 points in 73 matches: 23 - 30 - 20 (1.22 PPG) Peter Nowak earned 87 points in 75 matches: 21 - 30 - 24 (1.16 PPG)
Is that a tactical plan he’s describing or just a group travel itinerary? “Stick together everyone, everybody got their buddy? Ok onto the plane to Chicago “