Nah. Overall, even players ranked in the top 100 who make one appearance only average 2.6 cups, so those players in the last cup have less than a 50% chance of being in 2022. I suppose you could argue less talented players get in more cups, but I doubt it.
Overall I agree with what I have seen you write on the subject. From my view college soccer will be like the college baseball model where college will attract still attract the academically inclined elite level athletes and the less academically inclined that have not been offered what they are looking for. The facilities in college soccer are top notch, but the season has too few games packed into a comparatively smaller window to train and the coaching is generally poor. it is generally filled with guys that never were able to play at any level themselves and received what little formal coaching education they have through a very inferior US system. I'll admit I'm not sure what you mean by 6-16. I'm assuming you are talking about players that get into a game. Otherwise I have no idea why you have 16 instead of 1600 or some other large number that represents the totality of college soccer players at the top of your range. So assuming you are talking about players on the field, your view the halcyon days of yore is through some extremely rose colored glasses. The reality is that 15 - 20 years ago you couldn't find 10 guys in the entire college system that could make an impact a league with a few stars and a lot of mediocre players. The best college players were getting picked to national teams not because they were special, but instead because there were no other options. The national team exposure then got them chances to play elsewhere much in the way that Jay Demerit's exposure got him a chance to play. You take some college kids of today give them the same chances and some of them would make it as well. Now you are not only getting a large number of highly skilled US players, but increasingly getting very talented academically inclined players throughout the world. Also, today, just as in the past, some of the best keepers in CONCACAF are college products. Heck even JK sent his kid to school. The biggest problem is that the quality of coaching has largely stayed static and has not increased to match the quality of player. You still mostly have guys who played and got the majority of the coaching experience in an era when players struggled to control the ball..
This isn't true. All NCAA sports would permit a freshman to enter at 21 years old. The difference is, there aren't any outlets in any other NCAA sport to allow a player to continue playing and developing and remain suitably "amateur" in the NCAA's eyes to be eligible. The only reason 21 year old freshmen appear in NCAA hockey is because the USHL, NAHL, OPJHL, BCHL, etc. exist and don't "pay" players in a manner that causes the NCAA to clutch its pearls. If for some reason a kid wanted to delay school for three years and play in some local amateur soccer league, he could. But there aren't high level amateur leagues out there that are designed to make players ages 18-21 "college ready" like there are in hockey. And those really only exist because the Canadian athletic structure is vastly different than the American, and the American hockey system had to adjust to not leave 18 year old Americans facing 25 year old Canadians in the NCAA ranks. You occasionally see an overage guy playing NCAA football after his baseball career fails (Chris Weinke, Josh Booty). So the issue isn't age. The issue is, what the heck else are you going to do for those 3 years that will still allow you to be an elite level athlete?
Nope. He went to UNC for a year but did not play. He was redshirted and then signed in England. Never played a minute of college soccer and had 4 years of eligibility when he left. Splitting hairs, I know, but didn't play is didn't play.
You do in soccer as some of the German guys are older as the lowest leagues in Germany are regarded as Amateur. Same with other European countries. A few years ago Sagi Lev-Ari was like 26 when he finished school and was drafted in the 2015 MLS superdraft 35th overall. He was Israeli and I believe he took time off soccer for army services which was one of the reason he was so old. Another example is Canadian - Alex Cosmia - http://goheels.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=7738 has played both Academy soccer in MLS (Vancouver) and in France and I have records of him playing over 120 games before he joined UNC although I'm assuming all games he was regarded an Amateur player. Americans players could play an amateur career in PDL until whatever age before joining a NCAA side although not sure why you do it. I have also been told by MLS clubs that they offer University education as part of signing a high profile academy player. These discussions have been regarding foreign players who also have the option of playing in NCAA. What I don't know is if a player signs with a MLS club but doesn't play professionally is he able to play NCAA soccer later in his career.
KW United had a kid this summer fall into this, Sameer Fathazada. Actually had to quit playing for NCAA eligibility.
Only thing I know is he took his gap year in 2015/2016. Still unattached in 2016/17, so it counted as competitive experience.
Can you explain the gap year thing? I understand it to mean that players get a one-year post high school grace period where they don't lose eligibility but I'm assuming it has something to do with age as well since players abroad don't always finish school at 18/19.
If John graduates in 2018, he has until Fall 2019 for his "gap year." That grace period exists as long as there is no competition being played. So, the gap year can be "extended" as long as there are no competitions -- i.e., can train indefinitely with a team with no punishment of missed eligibility. So, in the case of Sameer Fathezada (who I referenced previously at KW United), he graduated in 2015. His gap year was 2015-fall 2016. He played PDL in 2016 (I believe) and then ended up playing competitively in summer 2017. If he never played competitively, and just trained with KW United in summer 2017, he would not have burned any eligibility. Now, this all changes depending upon his graduation year -- any organized competition AFTER gap year burns eligibility.
I am sure there are some "other" stipulations too. I've seen and known several players who have played abroad and have become 21-22 year old freshmen. I would imagine there is something specific about being on a "youth contract" that permits those players in maintaining college eligibility.
That's part of the reason I brought up the previous post (#40). I can only figure there were contracts signed that are technically "youth contracts" that are binding for numerous years beyond HS. Maybe that's the exemption? Can't say I'm too familiar with hockey to know anything there. Just a complete assumption on the youth contracts that bypass the "gap year."
A friend of the family played 2 years at a DI school, then played in Germany for 3 years in a semi-pro, student visa status, returning after the club went bankrupt. He told me that he had 2 years of NCAA eligibility remaining, but didn't exactly follow through with that, playing 2 years at an NAIA school instead.
Why would a coach recruit someone that has not played for a year or beyond competitively? College coaches can put forth any proposals they want regarding their sport to the NCAA? Proposals are either approved or rejected. Hockey coaches and down hill skiing coaches proposed long ago the 3-4 year gap to try to make it "Professionally" before you had to enter college usually at age 21. #smart
Since you seem to have the stats at hand - how many players have come out of the DA program directly to the pros with no college playing time?
The following players are current American MLS Homegrown players who have not attended any college Andrew Carleton - Atlanta United FC Anthony Fontana - Philadelphia Union Auston Trusty - Philadelphia Union Ben Spencer^ - Toronto FC Ben Swanson - Columbus Crew Bill Hamid - D.C. United Bradford Jamieson IV - LA Galaxy Bryan Reynolds - FC Dallas Caleb Calvert^ - Colorado Rapids Chris Durkin - D.C. United Chris Goslin - Atlanta United FC Christian Lucatero - Houston Dynamo Collin Fernandez - Chicago Fire Collin Martin^ - Minnesota United FC Connor Lade - New York Red Bulls Coy Craft - FC Dallas Danilo Acosta - Real Salt Lake Derrick Jones - Philadelphia Union Dillon Serna - Colorado Rapids Djordje Mihailovic - Chicago Fire Donny Toia^ - Orlando City Erik Palmer-Brown - Sporting Kansas City Evan Louro - New York Red Bulls George Bello - Atlanta United FC Gianluca Busio - Sporting Kansas City Hugo Arellano - LA Galaxy Jack McBean - LA Galaxy Jaime Villarreal - LA Galaxy James Sands - New York City FC Jesse Gonzalez - FC Dallas Jesus Ferreira - FC Dallas Jose Villarreal - LA Galaxy Justen Glad - Real Salt Lake Kellyn Acosta - FC Dallas Kevin Ellis - Sporting Kansas City Kortne Ford - Colorado Rapids Lagos Kunga - Atlanta United FC Marco Farfan - Portland Timbers Marky Delgado^ - Toronto FC Mason Stajduhar - Orlando City Memo Rodriguez - Houston Dynamo Nathan Smith - LA Galaxy Patrick Okonkwo - Atlanta United FC Paxton Pomykal - FC Dallas Sebastian Saucedo - Real Salt Lake Tommy Redding - Orlando City Tyler Adams - New York Red Bulls There are few other like Kakuta Manneh who was drafted out of PDL/USDDA and never went to college there probably also a few others who went through a European or USL/NASL club before being signed by a MLS club.
Well, odds are...the player has played competitively. They have a gap year that they CAN compete competitively (in a different setting). In the end, if the player will make a team better, they'll recruit them. In the case of Sameer, he's a quality player, no doubt he'll make ORU better (doesn't take much).
Kortne Ford played at Denver http://www.denverpioneers.com/sports/m-soccer/mtt/kortne_ford_910332.html