The Chase - 2018 MLS Playoffs

Thoughts

• Atlanta jumped NYRB and I don't see them ever giving the top spot up. In fact, the record of 69 points should/will be beaten either against Chicago or, in a really fun event, against TFC. I don't see how NYRB catches them.
• I don't think NYCFC will drop out of the top 3 in the East (or into the top 2) but they have three proverbial 6 point games left on the schedule. The East will be shaped by them.
• Philly is going to drop points in the coming weeks with their hectic schedule, Montreal suddenly is a legitimate team that people should be scared of in the East, and DC has a run of games at home that should be there for the taking.
• Though DC is proving, once again, that having games in hand is not the place you want to be at the end of the season. They're level on games with many teams now and still on the wrong side of the red line. I think they will still jump over it, but now it looks like they'll just do it as opposed to seriously threatening for a hosting spot.
• TFC has to pull off a miracle. The "good" news for them is that they play all 3 of the teams above them fighting for the last playoff spot. They really can't go into decision day needing points, though, as hosting an ATL team on the brink of breaking their record isn't a recipe to pick up points.
• Out West, things were weird this last week. Sporting took full advantage and shot to the top of the table. I don't envy their schedule, but I still don't think it's as hard as RSLs. Those last two games against the current 2 and 3 seeds (and likely to stay that way) will be really fun to watch.
• Dallas has a run of games coming up that will really test if they're different than every other FCD team or recent memory. Two cascadia road games will be tough, and it's not like they're home games are gimmies. Outside the Colorado game, they'll have to fight to get 3 points out of any of their remaining games, honestly. That spot might be the most vulnerable.
• I expect to see LAFC finish in the top 2 of the West. They have a schedule that, if managed correctly, could get them to the top, even. That last game against SKC will likely be for the top spot.
• We screwed the pooch this weekend. We could have jumped level on points with LAFC but couldn't get the job done against one of the worst teams in the league. Because of that, I think our destiny of playing on the road in the playoffs is all but set - with a creeping fear that we might not even make it. This weekends game is all about not getting destroyed. Hopefully Petke can find some kind of gameplan that works in SKC to possibly steal a point (not holding my breath) otherwise it'll be October before this club has a chance at getting points again. And NER will be desperate to get anything in their fight to stay in the playoffs. After that, the two Portland games look monstrous. Zero points there and we're out. 3 and we're probably 6th. 4 or more and we maybe, just maybe, can find a way to 5th.
• Because Seattle just isn't finishing below us. No way in hell. They will not only win all 4 of their remaining home games, but they'll do so comfortably. I also think you'll see them win at least one of those 3 on the road and the only reason I don't think they get one of the other two is scheduling congestion. I see them finishing at 60 points and surpassing RSL by a mile.
• Portland has a schedule that will be a tough test to navigate. Most of the games are winnable with their roster, but the congestion and travel will take a toll. Unfortunately for us they will have had a weeks rest before we play them the first time, and then they don't play in the week between when we play them again. Sadly, I just don't see a way for us to finish above them, even if we can find a point or two on the road in the next 2 games.
• In terms of making the playoffs, though, I think we're pretty set. Vancouver has a schedule that is just horrible for them. 4 of their 6 games are against playoff legitimate teams with the other two on the road at desperate LAG and TFC. While I see them getting points in some of these games, it's not too far of a reach to say we might have already passed them in total points for the year.
• Which leaves just the Galaxy. A team whose defense makes swiss cheese look formidable. Like Vancouver, I think we might already be above what LAG will reach points wise for the entire season. Looking at that schedule, I simply don't see how they get the needed 8 points just to surpass where we're already at.

 

(as of 9/24/18)
Eastern Conference
1. ATL. 63 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/30 at NYRB
10/6 v NER
10/21 v CHI
10/28 at TFC

2. NYRB. 59 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/30 v ATL
10/6 at SJ
10/21 at PHI
10/28 v ORL

3. NYCFC. 50 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/26 v CHI
9/29 at MIN
10/21 at DCU
10/28 v PHI

4. CLB. 47 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/29 v PHI
10/6 at MTL
10/21 at ORL
10/28 v MIN

5. PHI. 46 PTS. 30 GP. 5 GR (1 USOC). 2 Home / 2 Away
9/26 at HOU - USOC
9/29 at CLB
10/6 v MIN
10/21 v NYRB
10/28 at NYCFC

6. MTL. 40 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/29 at DCU
10/6 v CLB
10/21 v TFC
10/28 at NER

7. DCU. 35 PTS. 28 GP. 6 GR. 5 Home / 1 Away
9/29 v MTL
10/7 v CHI
10/13 v FCD
10/17 v TFC
10/21 v NYCFC
10/28 at CHI

8. NER. 35 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 2 Home / 3 Away
9/29 at TFC
10/6 at ATL
10/13 v ORL
10/18 at RSL
10/28 v MTL

9. TFC. 30 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 3 Home / 2 Away
9/29 v NER
10/6 v VAN
10/17 at DCU
10/21 at MTL
10/28 v ATL


Western Conference
1. FCD. 53 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 2 Home / 3 Away
9/29 at POR
10/6 v ORL
10/13 at DCU
10/21 v SKC
10/28 at COL

2. SKC. 51 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 3 Home / 2 Away
9/30 v RSL
10/6 v LAG
10/17 at VAN
10/21 at FCD
10/28 v LAFC

3. LAFC. 50 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 2 Home / 3 Away
9/29 at CHI
10/6 at COL
10/18 v HOU
10/21 v VAN
10/28 at SKC

4 . POR. 47 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/29 v FCD
10/6 at RSL
10/21 v RSL
10/28 at VAN

5. RSL. 45 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/30 at SKC
10/6 v POR
10/18 v NER
10/21 at POR

6. SEA. 44 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 3 Home / 2 Away
9/29 v COL
10/8 v HOU
10/17 at ORL
10/21 at HOU
10/28 v SJ

7. LAG. 41 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
9/29 v VAN
10/6 at SKC
10/21 at MIN
10/28 v HOU

8. VAN. 40 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 2 Home / 3 Away
9/29 at LAG
10/6 at TFC
10/17 v SKC
10/21 at LAFC
10/28 v POR

 

Thoughts

• If you want to make some easy money in Vegas, find my predictions and bet against them
• The gap between ATL/NYRB and the rest of the East is astounding. They (ATL and NYRB) play this weekend, I'm excited to see how that one goes. Should be a preview of the ECF and likely MLS Cup Champion.
• Philly's run of play lately has made the middle of the playoff standings in the East really interesting. They got 2 results this week that most thought they would be lucky to just get a point out of. The USOC final this week will be hard to manage with the league. I expect a slip in the other games around it, but they are a team to watch.
• Montreal should have the last spot on lock, but DCU's home run will put them to the knifes edge. This saturday's matchup between the two will give an inside track to one of the two.
• TFC has to be essentially perfect the rest of the season to have any hope. Anything but a win this weekend and I'll remove them from the list.
• The West is a mess. Expectations should go out the window. Dallas is on top but don't have a game I would comfortably pick them to win until the last day of the season. The game with Portland this Saturday should be a fun one. As RSL fans, we want FCD to win. We need Portland within touching distance.
• SKC also have a rough schedule ahead of them. Especially since the Gals might have decided they can play soccer again this past weekend. Our game with them this Sunday will be massive for both teams in terms of chances of getting a bye/hosting a play in game.
• Portland have cashed in all those games in hand and, like should always be expected but never is, they didn't max out. They are vulnerable. We have a lot more control of our destiny with them than I thought we would. The double header could move us from top 3 to 6th. It can't be understated - those are massive games.
• Though the game on our schedule that I fear the most, honestly, is the home game against the Revs. We have to win that one. No other result is acceptable and our record in those type of games is less than ideal.
• Red hot Seattle suddenly looked not only mortal, but very beatable this weekend. They still have an insanely easy schedule, but maybe it's full of games they'll overlook. I expect them to finish above us, but my confidence in it has been diminished to like 75%.
• The Galaxy, similarly, suddenly have a legitmate shot at jumping us into the playoffs should we stumble. We need them to draw with Vancouver this weekend to keep them both at bay. Their road game against Min will really be influential to them having a chance to finish above the red line.
• Vancouver gonna vancouver. I don't fear them (so.... you should fear them)

 

(as of 9/24/18)
Eastern Conference
1. ATL. 63 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 2 Home / 1 Away
10/6 v NER
10/21 v CHI
10/28 at TFC

2. NYRB. 62 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at SJ
10/21 at PHI
10/28 v ORL

3. NYCFC. 53 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 at DCU
10/28 v PHI

4. CLB. 48 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at MTL
10/21 at ORL
10/28 v MIN

5. PHI. 47 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 2 Home / 1 Away
10/6 v MIN
10/21 v NYRB
10/28 at NYCFC

6. MTL. 40 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 2 Home / 1 Away
10/6 v CLB
10/21 v TFC
10/28 at NER

7. DCU. 38 PTS. 29 GP. 5 GR. 4 Home / 1 Away
10/7 v CHI
10/13 v FCD
10/17 v TFC
10/21 v NYCFC
10/28 at CHI

8. NER. 35 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at ATL
10/13 v ORL
10/18 at RSL
10/28 v MTL

9. TFC. 33 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/6 v VAN
10/17 at DCU
10/21 at MTL
10/28 v ATL


Western Conference
1. FCD. 54 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/6 v ORL
10/13 at DCU
10/21 v SKC
10/28 at COL

2. SKC. 52 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/6 v LAG
10/17 at VAN
10/21 at FCD
10/28 v LAFC

3. LAFC. 50 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at COL
10/18 v HOU
10/21 v VAN
10/28 at SKC

4 . POR. 48 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at RSL
10/21 v RSL
10/28 at VAN

5. SEA. 47 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/8 v HOU
10/17 at ORL
10/21 at HOU
10/28 v SJ

6. RSL. 46 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 2 Home / 1 Away
10/6 v POR
10/18 v NER
10/21 at POR

7. LAG. 44 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at SKC
10/21 at MIN
10/28 v HOU

8. VAN. 40 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/6 at TFC
10/17 v SKC
10/21 at LAFC
10/28 v POR

 

• There was only one change in positioning in all of the teams I highlighted here this weekend - we switched spots with Seattle. That's crazy given how tight it is in parts.
• ATL's loss to NYRB was the big game of the weekend for the league, as a whole. Should Atlanta leave any more points on the table, they will not only fail at being the best team ever in terms of points, but they could lose that top spot (and record, potentially) to NYRB. Now THAT would be something.
• The playoffs in the East, for spots 1-5, are set with some possible change at the teams in 1 & 2 / 4 & 5. The last spot is a juicy one, though. Montreal have it on points now, but DC sits just 2 points back with 2 games in hand. DC has a crazy run of games to finish the season that will dictate a lot.
• I left TFC and NER in because they could, if they got hot, still jump in. I don't think they will, but I'll leave them for now.
• The West is insane right now. Results didn't go how I thought they would in almost every game. Dallas currently sits atop the standings but could very easily find themselves having to play a play-in game. Though I think they are pretty secure as a 4 or higher seed, now.
• The point we took off SKC was huge for a lot of reasons. They now face 4 consecutive games of teams either fighting for their playoff lives or in the playoffs fighting for positioning. Those last two, in particular, should set who is where in the playoffs.
• LAFC looked pretty bad this weekend in Chicago. They get the cRapids to right the ship this week, though, so I don't expect them to lose much ground. They will likely be playing that last game with SKC for one of the top 2 spots.
• Portland went from winning the West to now maybe being out of the playoffs. They have just 3 games left with 2 on the road. That last one with Vancouver is not one they want to be going into needing points. The series with us will be massive for both clubs.
• Someone let the air out of Seattle this last week. Beating on the cRapids aside, they looked vulnerable and not as amazing as many (myself included) had them made out to be. They don't play a playoff contending team to finish the season, though, so I expect they'll finish in the top 3, still.
• We have to get at least 4 points to have any chance at finishing above 5th. Honestly, we probably need to get closer to 7. I keep looking at that NER game and fearing what will be on display. We showed this last week that the team will show up against good competition, but what will they do against competition we should beat? This year has shown it won't be good.
• The Galaxy got more points in the past few weeks than I thought they were going to get for the rest of the season. They scare me. Their defense is atrocious, but they can attack with the best of them. Should RSL take care of their own business, then the Gals can help us knock down SKC. Though, with any points there, they have a legitimate shot at jumping us given the last 2 games on their schedule are very winnable.
• I will remove Vancouver this next week unless they win.

 

The scheduling is less than ideal, for sure. Though if I had to pick, I would take ours over Portland's. Petke should have no problem getting the team ramped up for the road trip and the home game. Their playoff lives will be on the line.

I also like that we don't play on decision day ONLY because there is pretty much zero chance we get a bye.

 

(as of 10/8/18)
Eastern Conference
1. ATL. 66 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 v CHI
10/28 at TFC

2. NYRB. 65 PTS. 32 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 at PHI
10/28 v ORL

3. NYCFC. 53 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 at DCU
10/28 v PHI

4. PHI. 50 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 v NYRB
10/28 at NYCFC

5. CLB. 48 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 at ORL
10/28 v MIN

6. MTL. 43 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 v TFC
10/28 at NER

7. DCU. 41 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 3 Home / 1 Away
10/13 v FCD
10/17 v TFC
10/21 v NYCFC
10/28 at CHI


Western Conference
1. FCD. 57 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 2 Away
10/13 at DCU
10/21 v SKC
10/28 at COL

2. SKC. 53 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 1 Home / 2 Away
10/17 at VAN
10/21 at FCD
10/28 v LAFC

3. LAFC. 53 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 2 Home / 1 Away
10/18 v HOU
10/21 v VAN
10/28 at SKC

4 . POR. 51 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 v RSL
10/28 at VAN

5. SEA. 47 PTS. 30 GP. 4 GR. 2 Home / 2 Away
10/8 v HOU
10/17 at ORL
10/21 at HOU
10/28 v SJ

6. RSL. 46 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/18 v NER
10/21 at POR

7. LAG. 45 PTS. 32 GP. 2 GR. 1 Home / 1 Away
10/21 at MIN
10/28 v HOU

8. VAN. 43 PTS. 31 GP. 3 GR. 2 Home / 1 Away
10/17 v SKC
10/21 at LAFC
10/28 v POR

 

• It's a shame that NYRB and ATL play in the same conference. I could get behind that being MLS Cup. The rest of the league can be good, don't get me wrong (we somehow beat NYRB) but those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the league.
• Philly is on fire in the East, though, so maybe they can shock us. I doubt it, but maybe.
• The last spot is going to be fun to watch play out. DC has to be damn near perfect at home to have any hope. Their game with FCD this week should tell us how legit DC actually is.
• Dallas has created a gap at the top of the West and has a schedule that they should be able to maintain the top spot, but you never know. It's FCD...
• I've said it every week I've done this - that last SKC v LAFC game is going to dictate a lot in the West. I think it'll be for getting a bye or having to host a play-in game. That's a big difference in how the schedules work out.
• Portland picking up their 3 points made it so the top 5 look all but settled. Portland and Seattle will battle it out for who gets to host vs who has to play on the road. I really hope they finish 4th/5th so we can get that rivalry game for one of the play-in games.
• Seattle has a rough road trip to Orlando (thats a long flight) and then just 3 days later in Houston that will set them up to host or not. Those are winnable games, but the logistics of it could hurt them.
• Then there is RSL. When I first did this I challenged the fates and said "hell, RSL might already be in the playoffs just because other teams have rough schedules". I was wrong. I was very wrong. We have to win against New England to have any hope because LA is getting at least 3 more points this season, if not 4 or 6. If we go into the last game with Portland needing points, we're not going to do it.
• I think the Gals find at least a point in Minnesota and should win at home to finish the season
• I think Vancouver put in a great effort, but has way too rough of a schedule to make up the ground. All three of those teams they play are desperate for points to solidify their playoff spot.
• Prediction for the East: ATL (70), NYRB (68), NYCFC (56), PHI (53), CLB (51), DCU (48), MTL (47)
• Prediction for the West: FCD (64), LAFC (60), POR (57), SKC (55), SEA (54), LAG (49), RSL (49), VAN (44)

 

1. We don't really know much of this team, if anything, without KB. I would love to have the confidence to say we will play better without him. Unfortunately, Petke doesn't rotate him AT ALL so we're stuck here wondering what the team looks like without KB on the field.

2. Not having Sunny has been shown to hurt the team more than it helps.

3. Portland won't be looking past us, I can guarantee that. We are their final home game of the season and one that could be the difference between them hosting or playing on the road in the playoffs. If they're going to look past a game, it's the Vancouver one because it simply falls after our matchup.

4. There are many games that you could point to and say "that is why we won't make the playoffs". I'd point at our road record is worse than any other team in the West competing for a playoff spot. Like a LOT worse. We also had some games this year where we picked up points that we maybe didn't fully deserve.

 

(as of 10/22/18)
Eastern Conference
1. ATL. 69 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at TFC

2. NYRB. 68 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Home
10/28 v ORL

3. NYCFC. 53 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Home
10/28 v PHI

4. PHI. 50 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at NYCFC

5. DCU. 50 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at CHI

6. CLB. 48 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Home
10/28 v MIN

7. MTL. 46 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at NER


Western Conference
1. SKC. 59 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Home
10/28 v LAFC

2. LAFC. 57 PTS. 33 GP. 2 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at SKC

3. FCD. 57 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at COL

4. SEA. 56 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Home
10/28 v SJ

5 . POR. 54 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Away
10/28 at VAN

6. RSL. 49 PTS. 34 GP

7. LAG. 48 PTS. 33 GP. 1 GR. 1 Home
10/28 v HOU

 

• Decision day is going to be fun. There are quite a few games that have implications. To start, TFC and ATL play each other. TFC has been god awful given how much talent they have and are playing a team with more than twice as many points as them. Atlanta, with even just a point, will set a record for most points in a season. Set last year by TFC. I expect TFC to be playing with pride and for this game to be fun to watch.
• Especially because NYRB can jump ATL with a win if ATL doesn't win. And NYRB should not only win, but destroy Orlando. And while I know some of people are picking the Jum Curtin to be Coach of the Year, I don't know how it couldn't be Chris Armas.
• The middle of the playoff spots in the East are interesting to watch NYCFC and Philly play each other with that 3rd place spot on the line. A win or draw and NYCFC keeps that spot locked up. What gets interesting, though, is that Philly can go from 4th to 6th if they don't pick up a win. That's a massive difference.
• The reason for that is that DC plays at Chicago and a win will put them at 53 points. Similarly, Columbus plays Minnesota and a win would jump them to 51 points. Montreal might be too little too late, even with a win against a bad NER team.
• In the West, things are messy. SKC hosts LAFC and top spot in the West is on the line. LAFC have to win to take it. SKC could fall all the way to 4th if they lose. Because FCD will get a win against the cRapids (putting them to 60 points) and Seattle will beat San Jose (putting them level at 59 points and winning the tiebreaker because of wins). Portland is set at 5th no matter what, it appears.
• Then there is the Galaxy. They host Houston, a team just barely better than the likes of the cRapids. We need LA to lose or draw. I just don't see that happening.