Already a 0.7 advantage over Italy this season. They lost two teams, we lost only Mainz and we should get more points for a victory because our points for a victory are still devided by 6. It vital to keep the advantage more than 10 points(it's 13 now) over the next 2-3 season and i think that will happen. Italian teams are just awfull, they can win for their lifes in EL. Udinese and Lazio will go out soon from EL and Napoli will finnish last in the group. I espect a lot of points from Bayern this year, also Dortmund will make the last 8 teams in CL i hope. Neverkusen will finnish third and play deeply in EL(1/4 finals maybe). Schalke and Hannover with easy groups. I also expect a deep run from them too, and points from Hannover victories are a bonus. On the other side, Milan and Internazionale arent that good and they will focus more on the domestic title. So by my prediction, Germany will keep the fourth stop for minimum 5 years. Even if they have bad results, Italian teams are just that bad, that they can't claim that spot faster. But who knows, maybe bundesliga teams will reach the next level in quality, take over Spain's second spot and keep that place for years to come.
The only chance of this happening is if Dortmund, Schalke, and Hannover become consistently successful in the CL/Europa league and Bayern continues to make at least the 1/4 finals every season. The fact that the Spanish league is becoming more and more lopsided and the declining quality of all teams not named Real Madrid and Barcelona will aide us in this as well.
Italy at this point is in bigger danger of loosing its 4th spot to either France or Portugal, rather than catching up with us. Still with Juventus spending like mad and Roma with the new sugar daddy, they can't keep being this worse for too long. I give them 2 more years and we will start seeing noticeable improvements from them. I don't see why you think Lazio and Udinese will crash out of EL. Maybe Udinese since they are with Atletico Madrid, but Lazio looks like one of the favorites for the title atm in my opinion.
I don't care whether we catch Spain or not as long as we keep our 4th CL spot. The French look more dangerous than the Italians at the moment. More important: We must win a title in Europe again. That should be the next aim.
I 2nd the title thing, let's see how far our teams make it this year. None looked convincing as of yet, tbh.
For me, Bayern looked very convincing. If Robben and Ribery are healthy in the important games, they should have a great chance of winning the Champions League this year. Robben, Ribery, Müller, Schweinsteiger, Gomez, Kroos, Gustavo, and a much improved defense with Rafinha, Boateng, Badstuber, Lahm and Neuer - this is one of the best teams Bayern has ever had. The only weakness is the bench where other teams like Real, Barca or ManC are better. But as long as all players are healthy, Bayern should be able to beat those teams.
The defense still sucks compared to many other European teams. And that will break Bayern's neck as usual. Hell, if only one of Boateng or Badstuber (which isn't exactly an amazing defense either) is injured, Van Buyten might play.
As I said: all players have to be healthy. And I would rather play Gustavo or Timoshuk than vBuyten at CD. Boateng is a much better player than you seem to think. He is extremely fast, good on the ball, a good passer. He is sometimes a bit lethargic and makes the occasional error but is still better than most players at his position and still very young. Badstuber at CD is not the player you seem to remember from the CL games against ManU and Co. There, he played at left back - a position for which he lacks pace. At CD, he is much better and he has improved a lot this year (he is still only 22 years old). Rafinha and Neuer are a huge upgrade over last year's fullback and goalkeeper. The defensive statistics so far - only one goal conceded - indicate that Bayern's weakness in the back is a thing of the past.
Badstuber and Boateng are okay for a CL group stage but not for the Round of 16 onwards. Time will tell, as usual. Btw don't get fooled by the Bundesliga results. They show how great Bayern's offense is but they only conceal Bayern's defensive quality. Which is certainly enough for the Bundesliga, but not for Europe's elite.
There are only three teams currently I would consider elite in Europe. Barca, Real and ManU. Anyone else should be beatable by Bayern normally. For ManU we would need a bit luck like last time. Real we would need some more luck and against Barca we would need a miracle, like Milan had it yesterday. Btw having luck includes having a healthy Robben available. Hopefully the draw will work in the way that this three teams will have to play each other in the knock out stage on their way to the final, then we could have relatively even chances in a CL-final in Munich.
Would be nice since I do not know this but you do. We will see how teams do vs Bayern on European level, the least we could is give Bayern a clean slate.. especially since 4 out of 5 positions are changes (Lahm LB, Boateng, Rafinha, Neuer). Lets at least wait and see how they do before deeming Bayern's defense a joke yet again, especially with a make shift defense and more tactical/defensive approach.
Bayern have beaten ManU and reached the CL final with are far dodgier defensive lineup (Badstuber at left-back, van Buyten, Demicheles, Butt).
Bayern also needed a miracle to pull that victory off. Robben's winning goal was a once in a lifetime shot. I'm not sure you realize this but from the round of 16 on Bayern rode a wave of extreme luck all the way to the final.
I wouldn't call it "extreme". They were lucky that Klose was not called for offside in that game against Fiorentina and that they finally got their 2nd goal in Manchester (which they had deserved by then). Be it as it may, they were good enough to get into the final - and that with an absolutely appaling defense. Now they have a super defense, and an improved midfield (Kroos, and Mueller is 22 now and has gotten better).
Dortmund. Hmmmm. I had some hopes BVB - unlike Bremen, Stuttgart, and Wolfsburg - would finally be a "surprise Bundesliga champion" that actually meant business in Europe but it looks like they will follow the same path as the aforementioned teams. Hope I'm wrong.
Same here. Seeing the nearly comedy style of them, with which they are gifting goals to their opponents, while clumsily wasting their own chances, I lost hope for them too. Still hope they can turn it around though of course, but realistically they probably will be lucky to get in 3rd place in their group and make at least the Euro league.
Dortmund have become too big for their boots. They suddenly think they just need to turn up and run a lot and they will win. Everybody wants to shine to the detriment of the team effort, and do some tricks for the gallery - especially Goetze who prefers to take on three defenders rather than pass the ball. The perfect example of this kind of self-aggrandization was the attempted header by Hummels to his goalkeeper. He went for the spectacular play, the play that would have brought everyone to their feet applauding. But his, as every Dortmund player's, concern should have been for the result only.
I think Dortmund's problem is more their coach than the players. He does not gameplan for each opponent. I think we are finally seeing why Klopp has no place at a top club or the national team.
FCB 23,23% Bremen 14,26% HSV 13,53% Schalke 12,21% Stuttgart 11,15% Leverkusen 8,94% Wolfsburg 6,05% BVB 3,99% Hertha 3,96% Nürnberg 1,77% H96 0,64% Mainz 0,26% Club contribution.