The All-Encompassing Pro/Rel Thread on Soccer in the USA

Discussion in 'Soccer in the USA' started by bigredfutbol, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. CoachP365

    CoachP365 Member

    Business Metrics SC
    Apr 26, 2012
    WIll they stay that way though? I see a lot of arsenal love on twitter, with people who vaguely remember the invincibles and henry and wenger, but I don't see a lot of kids in the US in arsenal shirts. Arsenal is lucky their fan demographic are the people with money to spend on jerseys and merch but give them 10 solid years of no CL, will the magic still be there?
     
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  2. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fair point, and I agree they're starting to burn through that capital. One thing is for sure--they can't afford to miss the UCL much longer. That's the first step for them.

    They still have time to right the ship. The Pepe signing shows they still have cache among ambitious young players. Emery has got to finish in the top four this season, though.
     
  3. jaykoz3

    jaykoz3 Member+

    Dec 25, 2010
    Conshohocken, PA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They'll score goals in bunches this season....but that defense though.........they have a huge test this weekend against Liverpool. They'll be around the top 4 simply because they'll beat up on all of the teams below the "Top 6." Whether they can manage to get points off of the teams in the "Top 6" will determine if they can secure a UCL spot or not.

    Emery is a good coach, and there's talk that Lacazette and Aubamuyang want to extend their stays with Arsenal. That's a good sign for their future.
     
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  4. You donot get into the lucrative top 4 without effort.
     
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  5. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Every professional sports team gives effort, though.

    I mean, they're a very good club and have been for a long time. But by the end of Wenger's tenure, one of the biggest complaints about the club from supporters was that the squad had grown complacent. They're one of the wealthiest clubs in the world, and there was a perception that as long as Wenger kept the UCL money rolling in there was no pressure to actually win either that tournament or the Premiership any more.
     
  6. That's going to last for a limited time. Stars want money, but they also want trophees. So if all you offer is a good paycheck, you're going to lose the lure for the best. Even the best clubs go through a rut because their star team ages and it isnot easy to rebuild and keep winning at the same time.
     
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  7. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Arsenal built their older fan base winning 1-0 and playing and perfecting the ultimate offside trap. They're not going to lose fans.
     
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  8. USRufnex

    USRufnex Member+

    Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
    United States
    Jul 15, 2000
    Tulsa, OK
    Club:
    --other--
    I think we should stop seeing each other.
     
  9. USRufnex

    USRufnex Member+

    Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
    United States
    Jul 15, 2000
    Tulsa, OK
    Club:
    --other--
    #22859 USRufnex, Aug 24, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2019
    So you think a startup NISA could somehow "get 20 owners to agree to start a league where 10 would either start in a lower level or start one 20 team season where the bottom ten get regulated" when MLS couldn't even hit their target of 12 teams despite having sole USSF D1 status?

    The best NISA could have hoped for would have been a partnership with the NASL and Rocco's $500mil offer fulfilled, but I believe the NASL treated NISA as a rival competitor despite Wilt's attempts to start a good bridge building dialog with both the NASL and the NPSL. Never mind the fact that they have a pre-existing rival in USL which re-established themselves with their USL League One endeavor and already have a very large USL Championship.

    To me, more ironic than interesting. For many years, conventional wisdom dictated that the primary reason the old NASL folded was due to overexpansion to 24 teams.

    According to one of the new owners of the USL Championship Roughnecks I spoke with a few days ago, USL & MLS can't even agree on which division MLS2 teams should be playing in. Independent USL-C franchises want all of them in USL League One while MLS doesn't want that at all. Of course, the compromise position would be Pro/Rel between Championship and League One. And once MLS expands to 32, they're more likely IMHO to have the cream of the crop split off into a "Premier MLS" than they would show interest in Pro/Rel with USL.

    I thought that was your job.
     
  10. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    This is probably true, and would track pretty well with the fact that they would have been a wounded, cornered animal by the time Wilt came along.
    Not all expansion is the same: if you award a franchise to any bum who shows up with an expansion fee and no business plan, that's over-expansion. While I, personally, would like to see an end to MLS's expansion, for the sake of the pyramid, I don't see any evidence of them over-expanding. However, maybe it's too early to tell. When Atlanta and Seattle and LAFC are as old as the Fire, the Crew, and the Revs, maybe we'll see a trend, although I think other factors are at play, here.
     
  11. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, sure. I'm the last person to believe that most pro athletes are just mercenaries. They have ambition and pride as well.

    But Arsenal during the late Wenger years seemed to have developed a culture where 'being in the mix' was good enough. There's that next gear that true champions have that doesn't come automatically. A locker room/training field culture that needs to be fostered, maintained, and re-energized.

    A good example of this is the University of Nebraska football team. The current coach is about to begin his second year of rebuilding the program from a pretty pathetic nadir. He returned to Nebraska after spending two decades first in the NFL and then working his way up the coaching profession--he was our quarterback the last time we won a national championship (1997).

    Last year, we lost our first 6 games (out of a 12-game season) and ended up with a 4-8 record. It became clear that he was shocked by just how bad things were behind the scenes. He's put a lot of emphasis on changing the culture in the team, which had become complacent and defensive over the last two coaches.
     
  12. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    I hate to break this to you, but Nebraska and my alma mater (Tennessee) are probably never returning to their heights. (Notre Dame and Michigan fans, don't go anywhere, you might want to listen, too). Their last golden ages were before the ubiquity of the internet and they had structural, systemic, and geographic advantages that simply don't exist anymore.
     
  13. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It was the pace of expansion that did them in. Plus this chart doesn't reflect the number of relocations, which meant teams weren't spending enough time in one location to establish themselves.

    upload_2019-8-24_13-31-33.png
     
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  14. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, I've been saying that for a while. For all his personal faults, I think Bo Pelini recognized that. The regents, the trustees, and much of the fan base still haven't.

    But while I don't think we'll ever win a national championship again, we can certainly do better than 4-8. Challenging Wisconsin for dominance in the Big Ten West and regularly playing in mid-to-upper tier bowl games is probably our ceiling, more or less.
     
  15. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not in north London. But they're a global brand now, and that status is a lot more brittle.
     
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  16. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    I agree with your second sentence, but I am not sure about the first. Dramatic expansion isn't necessarily a problem in itself, but is certainly risky if done haphazardly (which NASL did). After all, USL's growth curve over the last 5 years would look like NASL's and everyone keeps telling me how this is a sign of how successful the league is.
     
  17. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If anything the chart greatly understates the number of expansion teams. A whole bunch of NASL teams lasted only one or two years, so there were even more expansion teams replacing teams that folded.

    The main thing, though, is that the NASL was letting in a bunch of undercapitalized expansion teams based on unrealistic attendance projections. MLS and USL have done a much better job of vetting prospective owners. Also, the present-day leagues' high expansion fees have to some degree served as a proxy for ability to pay operating expenses, even if they're not intended as such. Anyone who is willing to pay that much money before seeing a cent of revenue should be able to keep the club running for a while.
     
  18. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    USL/USLC added but it's distorted by the reserve teams that have no financial or attendance requirements but were basically there to fill out the numbers.

    upload_2019-8-24_17-57-24.png

    Remove the reserve teams and it's still quite aggressive.

    upload_2019-8-24_18-6-53.png
    I've included 1868 and Toros as they are hybrids, not straight reserve teams.

    Of course a big difference is that many USL teams were firmly established before they joined the league, Indy, Tampa and NCFC for instance.
     
  19. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    That's still one hell of a straight line up.
     
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  20. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Only two more planned between now and 2022.
     
  21. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    We'll see. This assumes that the Queens and Providence teams don't happen.

    There are also rumors about New Orleans Jesters and Jacksonville Armada.
     
  22. USRufnex

    USRufnex Member+

    Tulsa Athletic / Sheffield United
    United States
    Jul 15, 2000
    Tulsa, OK
    Club:
    --other--
    #22872 USRufnex, Aug 25, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019
    You know, agreeing with me won't get you any reps.

    Agreed. My concern about MLS at this time has more to do with the single entity league using it to distance itself from USSF D2, cheapening the US Open Cup, and entrenching a major league/minor league dynamic between itself and all things non-MLS than it does the kind of overexpansion that threatens the league's short term existence. The latter was argued as the reason the old NASL failed in 1985.

    Using that logic, I guess the NPSL is doomed due to overexpansion. ;-)
    I know the NPSL has tried to put in some basic business standards, but the responsibility is put on the club, not the league.

    So, in both the NPSL and now NISA the responsibility for success/failure has/will have more to do with the business practices of the individual clubs rather than any particular business model for a league. A few pages ago, Kenn took his obligatory potshot at the NPSL with "Grass Roots are over there in the NPSL with the other cheap people." Except cheap is relative. I can go year by year comparing how my local NPSL club behaved to how a minor league baseball organization operated its local USL franchise in Tulsa "on the cheap."

    Well, if the NASL hadn't "overexpanded," my city would have never got a team, despite the NASL relocating and expanding to the point where there had been multiple teams in larger cities like Atlanta, Denver, Philly, and San Diego... NASL had to try San Antonio for two years, then Honolulu for one, before the owner chose Tulsa over Milwaukee and Cleveland in the fall of 1977.

    Funny how that once MLS starts expanding past 20 teams to 24 and 28 and beyond that some of the same MLS apologists who talked about how the NASL died due to overexpansion now tout the narrative that it was actually overspending by the original NY Cosmos that doomed the old NASL (and new one).

    IMHO, both of those reasons are only partially true.

    Also ironic that some of the same MLS apologists who regularly make excuses for MLS and its lack of any movement towards Pro/Rel because "soccer is just not that popular here" have no qualms with MLS expanding to the same number of teams as the NFL, NBA and MLB, all leagues in sports that are far more popular than MLS.

    For me, it's gonna rest on when Cincy, Nashville, Austin, St Louis and Sacramento are as old as the Fire, Crew and Revs before we know. A ManU fan from Houston said the same thing to me about Cincy on Sat morning.
     
  23. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    I cravenly play all sides.
    This is 100% my concern, as well. I don't personally care about that USOC that much (I'm not against it or anything, it's just not my top priority), but MLS's expansion does threaten turning the rest of the pyramid into a farm system.
    I see people mock the volatility of NPSL and UPSL, but they're really just laboratories for seeing if your crazy dream has any legs. It's way better to do it there, where the risks are low than in a pro league.
    I have no idea what to make of NISA for the near term. My guess is that half of the expansion teams will last a season, if they ever play a game and the league will eventually get taken over by the clubs that were holding out for NPSL Pro. Meanwhile, the soccerati will keep referring it to it as NASL 3.0.
    It's hard to predict, certainly. I could easily see Nashville and Miami being a wet fart, while Austin becomes the next Timbers. Or not. I sort of feel like we know Sacramento by now, and, barring extortionate ticket pricing, they'll be fine. But team popularity makes little sense to me. Why are the LA teams so popular, while in New York the fans are pretty apathetic?
     
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  24. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    England
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No assumptions, just 2 expansion teams have been announced.

    I can't see Palmer, or the Jesters coming up with the USLC expansion fee.
     
  25. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He says continuing to say my screen name for literally no reason. Pity.

    And yet they don't mandate it. Actually think about that for a minute.

    Except that RichardL (God I miss his posting) let us know that people aren't paying attention up or down the ladder. They watch/pay attention to where they are. Reading fans aren't watching the EPL because they are "linked" to the league via pro/rel.

    What's the system that connects football fans to non NFL markets? basketball fans to non NBA markets? baseball fans to non MLB markets? hockey fans to non NHL markets?

    Wish in one hand and shit in the other ... see which fills first. You want someone to give a damn about how you'd like to be treated? Then quit publicly lying about them. If that bolded part ain't about me then it's a NEW accusation ... and you still haven't provided evidence of your claims on me.

    Of course you've threatened physical violence and accused someone of stalking. And that's JUST ME I'm talking about. But do go on with this righteous bullshit.

    Yes, it is. Regardless of your personal feelings on it, it is soccer.

    Nobody has said it is.

    Nobody has claimed otherwise.

    Then actually address the issues that come with pro/rel. Stop trying to sell it and actually discuss it. Admit and talk about the Tranmere academies, Bury about to go bust, Bolton reeling, etc etc ... stop focusing on the "awesome and cool" parts and talk about the entirety of it IN THE US LANDSCAPE. Not what exists where there's a century plus of uninterrupted history, but with the FACTS and ISSUES that face the game here.

    OH, and btw the most watched soccer game last week was a glorified money grab friendly between ATL/ClubAmerica.

    ^ that is the poster example of you in a nutshell. It's also a poster of just how ridiculous your crusade of labeling folks that don't fall in line with your think, is. Of all the folks to toss in a clique or any other incorrect stupid shit, JasonMa is the last.

    ********ing ridiculous. HE CALLS ME OUT JEFF.

    Understanding the context of that quote is paramount.

    Actually there have been Football League teams that have failed in the last 25yrs ... but you know that.

    Maidstone United ... go on about Invecta and the NEW CLUB ... but Maidstone failed. Refusing this is a common thread with pro/rel folks and a regular selective application of facts.

    You ask this question completely ignoring and pretending that the difference in the game and perception of it from 1994 to 2019 hasn't happened/doesn't exist.

    Completely different landscape ... but you know that.
     
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