The All-Encompassing Pro/Rel Thread on Soccer in the USA

Discussion in 'Soccer in the USA' started by bigredfutbol, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    #7026 M, Apr 26, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
    I don't think so. Their claimed capacity is 30.7k but I suspect the actual segregated capacity is around 30.3k. That matches their attendance against Newcastle this season (30230) and their record ever attendance (30292 against Derby in 2015). Additionally, this claims that the away allocation is around 3,300:

    http://www.footballgroundguide.com/...ve-albion.html#awhat-is-it-like-for-away-fans

    So that leaves a home fan capacity of 27k. Their average this season is 27,791. So it's possible that with an average of 791 away fans Brighton sold out every home seat. However, as 8 games had an attendance of under 27k, that didn't happen. But six of those lower-attended games were midweek, when it is likely there were less away fans. Really, I suspect that although they didn't sell out 100% of home seats, they were pretty darned close to doing so.

    Maidstone went bust literally the first week of the season. Their first game was postponed and then they filed for bankruptcy. Instead of having an hiatus for a season, some fans took over a team playing junior football. They then got admitted to the pyramid at the start of the following season.

    Not sure what point is being made here. They didn't "technically just start supporting a different club", some fans took over the actual running/ownership of it as well.
     
  2. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    #7027 barroldinho, Apr 26, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
    Why would you assume an average of 791 away fans? That's a little over half the average away attendance over the last two seasons (1400) and only three Championship teams averaged under 1k in 2015-16.

    So the average attendance now stands at 27,791. The 87% quoted earlier was based on the claimed capacity of 30,750, so that's 26,753. Unless they had literally 0 away fans, they couldn't have been selling every seat at that point. Chop 1400 off that for away fans and that's an estimate of around 25,500 for the first half of the season.

    Clearly they've been packing them in since then, but that's to be expected seeing as they've not been outside the promotion places since October.
    My point was actually that they were basically a phoenix, they just started following another existing club that had been bought for the purpose, rather than starting one from scratch.
     
  3. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    #7028 M, Apr 26, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
    As I clearly stated, I didn't make that assumption.

    Why are you ignoring strong evidence that their segregated capacity is 30.3k, making the home capacity 27k? And according to this, in 15/16 average away fans were 6.6% of the average of Brighton fans.

    http://www.efl.com/documents/efl-at...ling-percentage-season-2015-16549-3547316.pdf

    Assuming a similar ratio in 16/17 (probably an overestimate given Brighton's crowds went up), with an average of 27,791, that would mean an average of 26,070 Brighton fans, i.e. 96.55% of home capacity over the course of the season, with away fans at 52% of away capacity. Half a season? Who cares.

    Interestingly, some of their fans don't consider them a phoenix, arguing "continuity" with the old team. That seems very bogus.
     
  4. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I didn't mention their segregated capacity.

    I don't dispute that. The 87% was based on the halfway point.

    I clearly stated that they've been packing them in since.

    Unless I'm calculating this incorrectly, their average attendance since the article that quoted 87% (26753) has increased by 1039. That makes an average attendance in the second half of the season of 28.8k.

    If we assume that they were actually filling the home allocation of 27k prior to that point, then that would make the uplift 100% driven by the away fans. That's highly unlikely.

    From that same website you linked, it seems that Brighton's average away fan (visitors) attendance last year was about 1200. If that holds true, that would make the first half home attendance about 25,500 to 25,600.

    I think it's far more likely that the increasingly realistic prospect of promotion pushed an increase of 1400 to 1500 fans to allotted capacity in the second half of the season, with a bit of an uplift among away fans.
     
  5. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Agreed.

    Were Maidstone Invictus affiliated with United? Maybe they're doing an Atlanta Silverbacks?
     
  6. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    Who cares?

    Right, I did postulate that using the prior season's percentage likely overestimated the number of away fans. So assuming an average, say, of 1350 away fans over the season, that makes an average 26,441 home fans. With a home capacity of 27,000 that means they averaged 97.92% of home capacity over the course of the entire season. Pretty impressive.
     
  7. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Agreed. I'm just saying that there was a likely upward trend spurred on as promotion came progressively to fruition.

    I've said all along, this is definitely a great story and I'm certainly not knocking Brighton's support or attendance numbers. They've clearly been through a lot and sell-outs in D2 aren't that typical anyway. Even less so outside England and Germany.
     
  8. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    Given they averaged just under 98% over the whole season, there was likely an uptrend from 96% to 100% of home capacity. But, really, when you're averaging so close to capacity, your comment is little more than a quibble.
     
  9. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    In this case perhaps, though it still follows the trend I've been claiming. They'll almost certainly sell to capacity all next season, with demand likely outpacing supply for both home and visiting fans. Especially as this is the first time back in D1 since 1983.

    Last season's Championship promotees all saw increases of roughly around 20% in this season's EPL.
     
  10. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    People are forced to buy season tickets in the Premier League to guarantee getting in.

    I think all clubs have fans who (for varying reasons)

    1) Go to every game/miss one or so
    2) Go to most games - 75% or so
    3) Go to a fewish games - 25 -50 % or so
    4) Go once a year

    With 4 less home games in the Premiership, and less midweek games, the people in 1 and 2 will buy a season ticket almost automatically, because they know there will be the scarcity. Those people will be already be in the clubs systems etc

    Hence why attendance goes up, but they might have less actual fans attending each year. By that I mean Brighton might have 40000 unique people who attended as home fans this season but that might drop due to ticket shortages.

    That make sense?
     
  11. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    It makes sense and I'm sure it's a factor, particularly in England where lower leagues are more popular than average.

    However, it doesn't ring true as THE reason.

    We see even greater fluctuations between levels in other nations, regardless of whether they have more or the same number of teams from one division to the next.

    We've also seen over the course of this discussion and others, that increases often occur with promotion at all levels of the pyramid in England, where 3/4 of the highest divisions have 24 teams.

    I'm not discounting or dismissing your point and with Brighton this would certainly be enough to make the difference.

    Or are you saying that the decreased number of game and more convenient match schedules AS WELL AS the club progress and step up in quality, drive the attendance?
     
  12. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In doing research I found this definition for Phoenix Club (which is also the one given by the Wiki on it) The term phoenix club is one used in professional team sports to refer to a new parent company that is set up to replace the parent company of a club that has failed in business terms but not in sporting terms, ideally while maintaining the continuity of the sporting activity.

    In this particular case it wasn't the fans, or a newCO with the same name and existing facilities, but in fact the oldCO buying out a youth club (an actual other club with NO ties to the originalCO) and "taking over." It wasn't a new parent company.

    They don't even use the same crest as the previous club but merely adopted the name of the club that the originalCO had.

    I used it specifically though because it addresses more than one bit in the whole CLOSED vs PRO/REL debate. In this example we have:

    1 - a pro/rel club FAILING AND CEASING TO EXIST
    2 - an existing club being BOUGHT OUT AND TAKEN OVER
    3 - a brand new club being formed
    4 - TWO fan bases having their clubs disappear (original MaidU and MaidInvicta) leaving them with a choice of whether or not to follow the BRAND NEW TEAM


    No ... it wasn't "some fans." Jim Thompson (same ownership) was in control during the "transition" until he got banned by the FA. He sold directly to Paul Bowden-Brown.
     
    barroldinho repped this.
  13. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    The midweek game point is a good one. I see that Brighton had five Friday night television games and eight Tuesday night (not counting Boxing Day) home games. That's over half their games not played on Saturday or Sunday.
     
  14. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I couldn't care less about these Phoenix clubs you guys are going back and forth about.

    I live in Ohio. And Arizona is too damn hot for soccer, anyway.
     
    Dan Loney repped this.
  15. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    I am saying that people feel the need to get a season ticket because If they dont, part timers and glory hunters will.
     
  16. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    https://www.fourfourtwo.com/us/features/colorado-rapids-struggles-plan-2018-future-mls-analysis

    Colorado Rapids really going for it this year.......


     
  17. barroldinho

    barroldinho Member+

    Man Utd and LA Galaxy
    England
    Aug 13, 2007
    US/UK dual citizen in HB, CA
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    It sounds to me like a club aiming to position itself for long-term success.

    Perhaps that might mean a period of building and transition, perhaps even growing pains.

    Some might even see the chance to do that as a positive. They aren't forced to sacrifice a long-term approach for short-term survival.
     
    flange and Matthew Johnson repped this.
  18. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That opportunity isn't afforded to pro/rel clubs.
     
    flange and Matthew Johnson repped this.
  19. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    Wonder how it will affect attendances...

    What's the point in going ?
     
  20. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    Yes it is.

    They just take the risk they will be in a different division.
     
  21. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Which pro/rel version allows a club to build long term by sacrificing short term success while still keeping within their current means and not removing them?

    I mean my wiki skimming clearly doesn't afford me this much more in depth knowledge.
     
    Matthew Johnson repped this.
  22. Pack87Man

    Pack87Man BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 1, 2001
    Quad Cities
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There is some seriously awful soccer being played right now in England. If relegation is supposed to motivate these players, then I am definitely not seeing it.
     
  23. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    #7048 Placid Casual, Apr 29, 2017
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 30, 2017


    There is nothing stopping any club from building for the future. The risk they take is that they may be in a different division.

    For example, Sunderland just got relegated. Best thing for them. Instead of scratching around at the bottom, they can jettison the deadwood and begin a culture of winning again.

    As opposed to Colorado who can say " Nah. Not bothering with this season. Buy tickets though" and suddenly expect to flip a switch .

    Interesting thing about Colorado- Who they share ownership with. Seems that winning is not a priority but saying they will is.

    But hey, it's a different perspective. I am sure you will write 10000 words of tediousness re-iterating everything that you have said before. Boring.
     
  24. Placid Casual

    Placid Casual Member+

    Apr 2, 2004
    Bentley's Roof
    One more point.

    I follow two teams.

    One in England, where I had a season ticket and also went away games for years.
    One in MLS, where I have a season ticket.

    The last 15 years have been much more interesting watching the team in England.

    Your mileage may vary.
     
  25. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not something you'll see in MLS
    upload_2017-4-29_12-56-40.png
     

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