The ACC 2019 - Road to Redemption

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by Vilhelm, Jun 20, 2019.

  1. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Day to of the ACC first round saw NC State end Duke's season, 2-1, and Va. Tech go to Louisville and give the Cardinals a 2-0 loss.

    State advances to face Pitt while Tech plays Wake Forest.

    Syracuse @ Virginia
    NC State @ Pittsburgh
    Notre Dame @ Clemson
    Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest

    All games are Sunday.

    Louisville is 8-7-2 but has a 21. RPI and has the 5th toughest SOS in the country so, like Boston College, they should be safe for an at-large bid despite losing in the first round of their conference tournament. They also have three top 25 wins - No. 2 Georgetown, No. 8 Va. Tech (earlier in the year) and No. 15 Kentucky.

    No such luck for Duke, which absolutely cratered down the stretch, winning just three of its final 15 games and one of its last eight. The Blue Devils 56. RPI might not cost most coaches their job, but Duke has the worst RPI in the ACC, finished last in the regular season standings and at 7-9-2 is the only team in the conference with a losing record.

    There is just way too much talent, and way too many recruiting advantages, for the Blue Devils not to be better. Don't be surprised if there's a new coach in Durham next year.
     
  2. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Current RPI and records for all 12 ACC teams. Italics is for teams already eliminated from the conference tournament.

    1. Virginia -------------------- 14-1-1 --- 6-1-1
    4. Wake Forest ------------ 13-3-1 --- 6-2-0
    6. Clemson ------------------ 14-1-1 --- 6-1-1
    8. Virginia Tech ------------- 9-5-2 --- 2-4-2
    12. Notre Dame ------------ 10-6-1 --- 3-5-0
    20. Louisville ---------------- 8-7-2 --- 3-4-1
    24. Boston College ------- 8-5-3 --- 2-4-2

    27. NC State ---------------- 9-5-3 --- 3-4-1
    32. Syracuse ---------------- *7-5-5 --- 2-4-2
    36. Pittsburgh --------------- 8-6-2 --- 4-3-1
    41. North Carolina -------- 7-7-4 --- 3-5-0
    56. Duke ----------------------- 7-9-2 --- 2-5-1

    *One of Syracuse's wins is over a non-Division-I program, which doesn't count in the RPI and isn't considered by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

    It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Syracuse if it loses to UVa in the QFs. They'll have a .500 record against D-I teams but their RPI should be high enough (they shouldn't drop too with a loss on the road against the No. 1 team) to have them in at-large contention. If Pitt loses Sunday as well, could come down to the Panthers or the Orange for the final ACC slot.
     
  3. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Quarterfinal results
    Virginia 2, Syracuse 1
    Pittsburgh 2, NC State 1
    Wake Forest 2, Virginia Tech 2 - Wake advances on PKs, 6-5
    Clemson 3, Notre Dame, 0

    Semifinal matchups (Wednesday)
    Wake Forest @ Virginia
    Pittsburgh @ Clemson

    Here are the RPI, record and SOS for the ACC teams after all of Sunday's games...

    1. Virginia (15-1-1), 26
    4. Clemson (15-1-1), 72
    5. Wake Forest (13-3-2), 12
    7. Virginia Tech (9-5-3), 2
    15. Notre Dame (10-7-1), 6
    24. Louisville (8-7-2), 4
    27. Boston College (8-5-3), 9
    31. Syracuse (*7-6-1), 1
    32. Pittsburgh (9-6-2), 45
    34. NC State (9-6-3), 21
    43. North Carolina (7-7-4), 18
    59. Duke (7-9-2), 17

    *Includes a win over a non-Division I side, which doesn't count towards the RPI and the NCAA selection committee doesn't count.

    Per GauchoDan, the current cut-line is 35, with Memphis occupying the safe spot on the bubble for the last team in. But that can shrink if conferences with a team in the top 35 have upsets. That should be making NC State and Syracuse nervous right now. (I think Pitt is safe.)

    We could still see 10 teams from the ACC get in. I think Syracuse's SOS will help it. And NC State has wins over Louisville, Notre Dame and Boston College, and no bad losses, both of which should help it's case.
     
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  4. theatric7

    theatric7 Member

    Nov 12, 2011
    Looking forward to the semifinal games tomorrow. The UVA vs Wake will hopefully be as quality as last year's meeting between the two.

    Some thoughts on Wake. They have very much felt like they could beat any team in the country and lose to any team in the country, sometimes even in the same game. The game against VT, although wake wasn't play great soccer, the game very much in control, and then for about 5 minutes, the team loses all discipline and gives up two goals. The team has been full of lapses and for some reason just out of sync all year. Obviously they still are in a great position going into the postseason, but this team is more talented than last year's team and have never looked it except for a string of 3 games in the middle of the year.

    Going into this game, if Wake can handle Dike (and that's a big IF) I believe they come out with at worst a tie. I think Wake's midfield matches up well against UVA, but will be in trouble if Dike sits on the CB that's not Deshields or exposes our left back. Should be a good game.

    As far as the other game goes, I still think Clemson has been proving that they are the best team in the country and will be surprised if they have any issues handling Pitt. IMO, they will be the team to beat both in the ACC tournament and in the NCAA tournament.
     
  5. Sam Miami

    Sam Miami Member

    Bayern Munich
    Germany
    Sep 11, 2019
    Momentum around Clemson athletics is massive.
     
  6. espola

    espola Member+

    Feb 12, 2006
    Isn't "momentum" defined in the same chapter as "possession"?
     
  7. quzybuk

    quzybuk Member

    Wake Forest
    United States
    Oct 22, 2018
    Wake's CBs are not big (and really haven't been for some time). Agree 100% that the biggest question of the game is how Deshields/Thomas/Benalcazar (finally back from injury) handle Dike, and specifically I think whether they can keep him isolated rather than letting him link up with other attackers. A secondary key will be how UVA tries to defend the central midfield, specifically Lapa and Parente; Wake's in an odd place where it's best attacking options are definitely on the flanks but the ball still tends to run through the middle to a large degree... teams have had some success stifling Wake by forcing the ball through the striker (either Harris or Holcomb) rather than getting it to the wings.

    I was actually pleased by Wake against VT; the first 70 minutes was some of the best, consistent play that Wake's had all season (excepting one communication error fairly early on). The five minute stretch was... one Benny Hill-esque OG and a soft foul resulting in a beautiful free kick (and it was, no question). If Wake plays like they did the first 70 minutes (which is largely how they handled UCF in August), they will be fine.

    Not quite ready to anoint Clemson as THE favorite over UVA/Wake, but they are certainly 1a to the others' 1b and 1c. Guess we'll see if Jay's got a bit of magic left in him tonight. One thing to keep in mind: Clemson is currently 4 and Wake is currently 5 in the RPI; if the NCAA seeding matches that then Wake would hypothetically travel to Clemson in the Elite Eight. The ACC Tourney is gonna be fun, but the NCAA seeding is an interesting subplot... Wake needs at least a draw tonight to move up to a top 4 seed, most likely.
     
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  8. theatric7

    theatric7 Member

    Nov 12, 2011
    I agree with all of this.

    For the VT game, I agree the team played really well for most of it. My biggest concern is that they have had 5-10 minute lapses similar to this game, that have cost them results throughout the year and were lucky not to cost them more. The way that I would put it, is in most games there have been significant periods where the team feels out of sync, versus the past few years they have had a game or two where the team felt out of sync for the entirety of the game.

    For Clemson, This team just seems to consistently perform well and dominate teams. The consistency is what puts them above everyone else in my opinion, but I am ready to be proven wrong.

    Also wanted to throw out that Deshields feels like a big snub from the All-ACC teams.

    Enjoy the games and feel free to tear me apart when UVA scores a few goals through the midfield and Pitt beats clemson.
     
  9. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
  10. quzybuk

    quzybuk Member

    Wake Forest
    United States
    Oct 22, 2018
    And the curse of me saying nice things about Wake continues...
     
  11. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So we get the final we've been hoping for as Clemson and UVa both win their SFs 1-0.

    It'll be the top two seeds in the ACC, the best (statistically) attack in the country against the stingiest (statistically) defense), the top two teams in the USC national poll (Clemson 1, UVa 2) and the 1 (UVa) and 4 (Clemson) teams in the RPI.

    Toss in the history and the pro prospects and this is about as good a matchup as you could hope to get in a conference final.
     
  12. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Meanwhile, none of the teams inside the bubble have been upset this week, meaning the possibility of 10 ACC teams getting into the NCAA Tournament is still a distinct possibility as the cut-off remains 35 (currently Memphis).

    Here's the ACC teams RPI, record and SOS after tonight's games...

    1. Virginia (16-1-1), 18
    4. Clemson (16-1-1), 74
    5. Wake Forest (13-4-2), 6
    6. Virginia Tech (9-5-3), 2
    16. Notre Dame (10-7-1), 8
    25. Louisville (8-7-2), 5
    28. Boston College (8-5-3), 10
    32. Pittsburgh (9-7-2), 26
    33. Syracuse (*7-6-1), 1
    34. NC State (9-6-3), 30
    43. North Carolina (7-7-4), 21
    58. Duke (7-9-2), 17

    *Includes a win over a non-Division I side, which doesn't count towards the RPI and the NCAA selection committee doesn't count.

    There are only a handful of games left before the regular season/conference tournaments end Sunday so don't look for the RPI or SOS to change all that much in the next 4 days.

    The only thing that could really change will be where the cut-off for the final at-large bids will be so there are still some nervous days for Syracuse and NC State.
     
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  13. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    UVa holds Clemson to one goal, scores three in the second half themselves and wins the ACC Tournament 3-1.

    It's the Cavaliers' 16 ACC Tourney title in men's soccer.

    Junior CB Henry Kessler was named tournament MVP.

    Cavs will undoubtedly be the top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
     
  14. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So with zero games left to play, here are the records, RPI and SOS of the ACC teams.

    The current at-large cut-off is 35, which means if the NCAA Tournament selection committee goes straight RPI, NC State would be the last team in. But the selection committee doesn't always go that straight and taking 10 ACC teams would be a new record and they just might decide to throw another conference a bone.

    1. Virginia (17-1-1), 10
    4. Clemson (16-2-1), 53
    6. Wake Forest (13-4-2), 8
    7. Virginia Tech (9-5-3), 2
    19. Notre Dame (10-7-1), 7
    27. Louisville (8-7-2), 4
    28. Boston College (8-5-3), 9
    30. Syracuse (*7-6-1), 1
    31. Pittsburgh (9-7-2), 27
    35. NC State (9-6-3), 31
    45. North Carolina (7-7-4), 22
    58. Duke (7-9-2), 17
     
  15. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Ten!

    That's how many ACC teams are in this year's NCAA Tournament.

    Virginia (1), Clemson (2), Wake Forest (4) and Virginia Tech (10) were all seeded and thus earn first-round byes. As top four seeds, UVa, Clemson and Wake will play all their games at home as long as they keep winning (thru the SFs, of course).

    UVa faces the winner of Campell/James Madison.
    Clemson plays whomever advances between Charlotte and Mercer.
    Wake will host the Iona-Maryland winner in what ought to be an interesting game (assuming it's Maryland).
    Whomever advances between Fairrleigh Dickinson and New Hampshire faces Va. Tech .

    The six other ACC teams earned home games.

    Syracuse will host Rhode Island. The winner plays 16. seed St. John's.

    Coastal Carolina travels to NC State. No. 8 SMU hosts the winner.

    My new favorite team, Wright State, goes to South Bend to face Notre Dame. The victor goes to No. 13 Michigan.

    Pittsburgh, which is in the NCAA Tournament since the first time since 1965 (!!!,) hosts Lehigh. Whomever advances plays at 3. Georgetown.

    South Florida goes to Louisville. The winner goes out west face No. 14 UC Davis.

    And Boston College plays Yale at home. A long-ass flight and No. 8 Washington await the winner.

    Virginia, Syracuse and NC State are in the same side of the bracket so we could have intra-conference games in the third round and quarterfinals.

    Notre Dame and Wake Forest are in the same quarter of the bracket and could also play each other in the Round of 16.

    Pitt, Louisville and BC are in the same bracket and could face each other in the third round or QFs.

    And Clemson and Virginia Tech could meet in the quarterfinals.

    https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/soccer-men/d1/2019
     
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  16. funinsun

    funinsun Member

    Jul 25, 2017
    Ridiculous. That’s all I have to say. The season doesn’t mean anything anymore. Just what league you play in. Let’s call it the ACC tournament. Oh wait they already have that and the number 2 seed in the country lost to the number 1 seed 3-1 in a very lopsided game. Let’s just give the national championship to Virginia now before playing any games. Sounds about right for this selection committee.
     
  17. theatric7

    theatric7 Member

    Nov 12, 2011
    You clearly did not even watch the final as you noted in another thread that Clemson scored at the end of the game. Clemson scored first and probably had the slightly better of play (maybe even first half) and Virginia came out and played lights out in the second half. UVA clearly deserving of the number one seed.

    I get that you are just trying to bait out a response with your posts, but if you really think a team was hard done not to get into the tournament, then why don't you post something thoughtful about that instead.
     
  18. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    The NCAA Men's Soccer Tournament Selection Committee has been very consistent about using the RPI as its primary gauge for selecting at-large bids.

    Not the only gauge, but its primary one. Most years, 22-24 of the 24 at-large bids are the top 24 of the teams with a winning record that didn't get an automatic bid.

    This year is no exception, as they went straight RPI with the lone exception of Cal instead of Central Arkansas.

    The ACC had 10 teams in the top 35 of the RPI. That means in the eyes of college soccer's governing body, 10 of the top 35 teams in college soccer were in the ACC. Why should a team be punished because it has a good RPI but happens to play in a conference with others teams with a good RPI. All these schools that didn't get in had a fair shot to get a bid. They didn't do it, either in the regular season or the conference tournaments. To gripe now is just sour grapes. Wanna leave it out of the Committee's hands? Win more damn games.

    I think it's fair to question if the RPI is the best criteria to use. That's a legit debate. But till someone comes up with a better formula, and the NCAA implements it, this is the criteria we use. And under this one, there's not much controversy that the ACC got so many teams.

    Lastly, having the most teams doesn't mean a national champion is coming to an ACC school. They had nine last year and didn't even get a team to the College Cup. They tend to have the most teams in the NCAA Tournament every year yet haven't won an NCAA title since 2014 (though they won seven between 2005 and 14).

    But while UVa is the top seed, a national title ain't a slam dunk. Hell, a trip to the College Cup isn't even a sure thing. A lot can happen in the NCAA Tournament. That's why they play the games.
     
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  19. OverseasView

    OverseasView Member+

    Olympique Lyonnais
    France
    Feb 3, 2013
    Club:
    Olympique Lyonnais
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    I hope they will honor your young enthousiasme…….:)
    Message to all readers: I did not bribe Sandon...;)
     
  20. funinsun

    funinsun Member

    Jul 25, 2017
    Looks like I posted Previously in the wrong forum. I apologize. I have no issue with 10 teams being picked from the ACC. They are all deserving to go. I have an issue with the seeding of all the teams. The problem is that the NCAA says they use the RPI but they really don’t. They should not give specific teams 3-6 slots higher seeding just because of their historic programs because it penalizes other teams greater. Past history from previous years negates the hard work that other teams put in during the current year.

    Examples of RPI and seed location
    Virginia-1 and 1 (0)
    St. John’s 9 and 16 (-7)
    Georgetown 2 and 3 (-1)
    UCF 5 and 9 (-4)
    SMU 3 and 8 (-6)
    Indiana 11 and 5 (+6)
    St Mary’s 15 and 12 (+3)
    Michigan 17 and 13 (+4)
    Wake 6 and 4 (+2)
    Georgetown 2 and 3 (-1)
    UCF Davis 18 and 14 (+4)
    Marshall 10 and 11 (-1)
    Washington 8 and 6 (+2)
    Stanford 13 and 7 (+6)
    Virginia tech 7 and 10 (-3)
    Penn state 20 and 15 (+5)
    Clemson 4 and 2 (+2)

    Apparently the selection committee likes the Big 10.

    Looks like St. John’s, SMU and UCF got the brunt of the effect of the others getting higher seeds. And that does not include RPI 12 Missouri state.

    I will get off my soapbox now.

    Let the games begin.
     
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  21. gauchodan

    gauchodan Member+

    Oct 18, 2016
    I answered this in the other thread, but in summary: RPI is not the sole criteria. There is nuance in assessing teams, and there are also rules on keeping 1st-round matchups regional and keeping conference mates from facing each other in their first match. There's also no requirement that the 1st-round visitors be ordered by strength.

    Missouri State played a weak schedule. They probably get seeded if they win the Mo Valley.
     
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  22. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    So two rounds into the NCAA Tournament and the ACC has 5 of the final 16 teams.

    In the first round, Syracuse, Boston College, Louisville and Pittsburgh all advanced while NC State and Notre Dame fell.

    Sunday in the second round, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Clemson, all of which were seeded and had a first round bye, advanced to the third round, as did Louisville, which went west and upset UC Davis. BC, Cuse and Pitt all lost.

    Here are the ACC schools Sweet 16 match-ups:

    St. John's @ Virginia
    Michigan @ Wake Forest
    Louisville @ Georgetown
    Virginia Tech @ Stanford
    Providence @ Clemson
     
  23. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Three ACC teams advance to the QFs while two more see their season end in the round of 16.

    Virginia advanced with a 3-0 win over St. John's, its 15th shutout of the season.

    Wake Forest dominated Michigan 3-1 to make the quarters for the fourth time in five seasons under Bobby Muuss.

    And Clemson escaped Providence in PKs after a 1-1 draw.

    Meanwhile, Virginia Tech fell on the road to Stanford and Louisville got dominated by Georgetown.

    So the quarterfinal match-ups are as follows:

    Southern Methodist at Virginia
    Stanford at Clemson
    UC Santa Barbara at Wake Forest

    And in the non-ACC bracket, Washington at Georgetown.
     
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  24. quzybuk

    quzybuk Member

    Wake Forest
    United States
    Oct 22, 2018
    #99 quzybuk, Dec 2, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
    Couple things:

    1) I definitely wouldn't say Wake dominated Michigan. The Wolverines had chances for sure, including the best chance of the first half that would've changed the game completely had they converted (Wake's GK Andrew Pannenberg made a world class reflex save on a Wolverine in on goal). Wake played better the second half, and was maybe the slightly better team overall on the night, but it was a far cry from the demolition job they put on Maryland last week.

    2) Clemson actually won 2-1 on a penalty in 2OT by Robbie Robinson; it was a bang-bang call, but it looked to me like the defender got a slight touch on the ball before contacting Kimarni Smith. It was noteworthy because Clemson was down a man at that point; Tanner Dietrich was sent off for a second yellow for dissent in the second OT. Clemson-Stanford is my pick of the QFs for sure.

    Obviously remains to be seen what still happens, and all three remaining teams have legit title aspirations, but at this point I think you can say the Road to Redemption has been redeemed for the ACC this year. The Big Ten likely inherits that title for its thread next season, I think. (It also just goes to show you how much luck plays into a lot of these results, and further helps contextualize how amazing Stanford's run has been the past five years.)
     
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  25. collegesoccer

    collegesoccer Member+

    Apr 11, 2005
    The Washington-Georgetown matchup pits the Bobby Clark tree for two teams that have been great all year. I'm sure with as close as Bobby is to Brian Wiese, family gets the nod in who he is pulling for ...
     

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