The ACC 2019 - Road to Redemption

Syracuse is ranked 22nd, not 32nd.

 

Ugggh. Really Clemson!? 7 goals!? Go away already. I’m already sick of u

 

Phew...

A crazy week. Pitt gets arguably the biggest win in program history, beating previously unbeaten and No. 1 UVa.

Clemson gives up four to Syracuse... and still wins by three.

Virginia Tech gets its first ACC win.

Here's the current record and ranking, thru Sunday.

4. Wake Forest ------------ 12-2-0 --- 5-1-0
8. Clemson ----------------- 11-1-1 --- 4-1-1
19. NC State ---------------- 7-3-3 --- 3-2-1
13. Louisville ---------------- 7-4-2 --- 2-3-1
24. Syracuse ---------------- 5-4-4 --- 1-3-2
29. Boston College ------- 7-3-3 --- 1-3-2

COASTAL
3. Virginia -------------------- 11-1-1 --- 4-1-1
35. Pittsburgh -------------- 7-5-2 --- 3-2-1
42. North Carolina -------- 7-4-2 --- 3-3-0
41. Duke ----------------------- 6-5-2 --- 2-3-1
7. Virginia Tech ------------- 7-3-2 --- 1-3-2
27. Notre Dame ------------ 7-5-1 --- 1-5-0

Every team has an RPI of 42 or better and every team is over .500. So far, every conference team still has a shot at an at-large bid.

Here are the upcoming games.

TUESDAY
36. Michigan @ Notre Dame
39. Saint Louis @ Virginia
43. Temple @ Louisville
56. Loyola Maryland @ Wake Forest
North Carolina @ 60. Campbell
63. High Point @ Duke
125. Elon @ NC State
183. Longwood @ Virginia Tech
193. Radford @ Clemson

FRIDAY
Louisville @ North Carolina
Boston College @ Clemson
Virginia @ Virginia Tech
Duke @ Pittsburgh

SATURDAY
NC State @ Syracuse
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest

 

Clemson can, obviously, score a lot of goals; their 3.77 per game is tops in the country, by about half a goal (SMU) and almost 1.5 goals per game better than the second-highest scoring team in the ACC, Wake Forest.

But...

Clemson has also played, by far, the softest non-con slate in the ACC. Here are the ACC teams ranked in order of their SOS as of Monday night.

1. Syracuse (26)
5. Louisville (14)
10. Virginia Tech (6)
16. Wake Forest (4)
19. Duke (41)
20. NC State (20)
22. Notre Dame (27)
23. Virginia (3)
28. Boston College (29)
44. Pittsburgh (35)
57. North Carolina (43)
73. Clemson (8)

Clemson's is obviously much softer than almost all of the rest of the ACC. And playing 193. Radford Tuesday ain't gonna help.

They also give up more than a goal per game, something that could be an Achilles Heel in the postseason.

That said, I really hope in the ACC Tournament we get to see UVa and their best-in-the-country defense (0.3) go against Clemson's offense. Would be a fascinating match.

 

Although Clemson has played the weakest schedule in the ACC, they have shown that they can score against anybody. Against top 50 RPI teams they have scored:
4. Wake Forest- 2 goals
6. Virginia Tech- 0 goals
14. Lousiville- 4 goals
26. Syracuse- 7 goals
27. Notre Dame- 4 goals
41. Duke- 3 goals

This is a 3.33 goal/game average against top 50 RPI opponents. Obviously their defense needs work and this may be the thing that comes to haunt them in the postseason like Vilhelm mentioned. In the past, defense has ruled tournament time comes around, so I have to give the edge to UVA heading there, but if I'm watching a team in the postseason, Clemson has provided some entertaining matches.

On another note, Wake seems to finally be finding their stride after their loss to BC. They have been dominating play in their last 4 games and seem to be peaking towards the end of the season rather than their usual mid-season peak. In particular, having Deshields back from injury has helped a lot, and Parente's play has been some of the in the conference these last few games. IMO Isaiah Parente is the engine for this Wake team, even though on paper Lapa seems to be.

 

Agree with all of this. Clemson terrifies me as a Wake fan, although the first go-around was weird because 1) Robbie Robinson got hurt early on, and 2) Mike DeShields got hurt in the second half (and Wake was already playing without its other first choice CB). Oh, and I guess that the final result wasn't really indicative of the play (Clemson didn't finish well at all in the second half and easily should've scored 5 or so).

Parente has been lights out this year, and if you want to see a CM clinic, re-watch the Wake-UNC game from Friday, where he was the best player on the field. Lapa gets the credit based on the counting stats, but Parente's been the most consistent player on Wake's team this year and probably deserves accolades more than anyone else (except maybe DeShields). With all that said, it's not coincidence that Wake's recent uptick in play has occurred with Lapa starting to find his rhythm (notably after he scored twice against NC State). The wing play is gonna be there for Wake (Machop Chol in particular has been an absolute menace), it's just a question of whether the players in the middle are willing to shoot/can finish chances.

 

And of course now that I've said all that Parente plays his worst game of the season and Wake gives up a tying goal with 12 secs left in regulation against Loyola (Md.) Double dukes.

 

Not a lot of redemption today. In eight games the ACC had three losses and two draws in non conference play. Louisville, Notre Dame and Duke lose with Wake and North Carolina drawing. Notre Dame (RPI and in danger of sub .500 record), North Carolina (RPI) and Duke (RPI and potential sub .500 record) are probably getting a little nervous.

 

Let’s be real....Duke was done 4 games ago when they f’d up their season by losing to a crappy Notre Dame team, then to an even worse Elon team. Sinking ship has already sunk

 

Duke dookies all over themselves, blowing a three-goal lead and losing to Pitt 4-3 to fall a game under .500 and drop their RPI to 57, which is the worst in the ACC.

Pitt, meanwhile, is three games over .500 for the first time I can remember, and their RPI is 30. Odds are very strong the Panthers are going to the NCAA Tournament.

Meanwhile, UNC likely needs to play their way into the NCAA Tournament in the ACC Tournament since their RPI is now 47 after falling at home to Louisville.

Elsewhere, Clemson's offense rolls on, beating BC 3-1 while UVa's defense pitches another shutout - it's 12th in 15 games - with a 2-0 win over Tech.

Still hoping for that Clemson-Virginia ACC Tournament matchup.

 

So... something that just popped into my head...

Pre-season it seemed like there was a massive imbalance in the divisions. The Coastal had 5 teams in the top 16 in the United Coaches poll or the top 19 in the TDS poll; the Atlantic had Wake ranked highly and then Louisville and NC State somewhere in the late teens or early 20's.

And... there is a decent-sized imbalance in the divisions, just that the Atlantic turned out to be the stronger one, thanks to Clemson's resurgence (shout-out to that sheeplover guy in the opening weekend thread who called it after one game) and none of the teams really playing below expectations. That's what makes this sport fun sometimes.

And yes, very much hoping for Clemson-UVA in the ACC Tourney (hopefully on the opposite side of the bracket from Wake in the 2-3 semi).

 

Quzybuk takes an early lead for memorable phrase of the year.

 

That sheeplover guy played at Clemson and knows the program very well!

 

Romeo played three years at Pitt (fourth year he was red-shirted). He did not have the joy of one ACC win. One… Just one…. Happy for them anyway.

 

Me make words good!

I'm just gonna stop posting nice things about Wake. It seems to jinx them. (They gave up an early-ish goal against the Irish and proceeded to do jack-all for the last 70 minutes against - admittedly - a very well organized defensive effort.)

 

I'm picking Pitt for NCAA R16 in 2020.

 

Great year so far for ACC. Such a dominant league year after year.

 

So, with a week to go, there are ten ACC teams ranked at least 31 or higher in the RPI and all of them are at least two games over .500. In other words, these teams are gonna finish at least .500 and have a high enough RPI for an at-large bid.

Here are the standings, records and RPI.

ATLANTIC
7. Clemson ------------------ 13-1-1 --- 5-1-1
5. Wake Forest ------------ 12-3-1 --- 5-2-0
28. NC State ---------------- 8-4-3 --- 3-3-1
14. Louisville --------------- 8-5-2 --- 3-3-1
20. Syracuse ---------------- 6-4-4 --- 2-3-2
23. Boston College ------- 7-4-3 --- 1-4-2

COASTAL
2. Virginia -------------------- 13-1-1 --- 5-1-1
31. Pittsburgh --------------- 8-5-2 --- 4-2-1
45. North Carolina -------- 7-5-3 --- 3-4-0
47. Duke ----------------------- 6-7-2 --- 2-4-1
19. Notre Dame ------------ 8-6-1 --- 2-5-0
8. Virginia Tech ------------- 7-4-2 --- 1-4-2

The four teams who will be the top seeds in the ACC Tournament - but not the actual order - have already clinched the first round bye that comes with a top four finish. It's not a surprise that three of the teams with a bye are UVa, Wake Forest and Clemson. But not only has Pittsburgh earned a bye, they did so with a game to spare.

This program has come a long way in a short time.

Here are the upcoming games. Only four teams have a non-con game this week and two of then, Duke and UNC, really need the wins. UNC and, especially, Duke will need to not just win Tuesday but will probably need at least one win in the ACC Tournament to get their RPI high enough to be an at-large pick.

TUESDAY
57. Appalachian State @ North Carolina
Virginia Tech @ 97. Princeton
109. Denver @ Duke
Boston College "@" 179. Harvard

FRIDAY
Wake Forest @ Louisville
Clemson @ NC State
Virginia Tech @ Duke
North Carolina @ Virginia
Syracuse @ Boston College
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame

END OF REGULAR SEASON

In terms of at-large bids, strength of schedule can be a difference maker. Here's the current SOS for all 12 ACC teams and their current RPI rank in parenthesis.

3. Syracuse (20)
5. Virginia Tech (8)
7. Louisville (14)
8. Boston College (23)
10. Duke (47)
15. Wake Forest (5)
17. Notre Dame (19)
18. Virginia (2)
41. NC State (28)
42. North Carolina (45)
45. Pittsburgh (31)
86. Clemson (7)

 

So, here is how the ACC finished heading into the conference tournament.

ATLANTIC
7. Clemson ------------------ 14-1-1 --- 6-1-1
5. Wake Forest ------------ 13-3-1 --- 6-2-0
27. NC State ---------------- 8-5-3 --- 3-4-1
16. Louisville --------------- 8-6-2 --- 3-4-1
20. Boston College ------- 8-4-3 --- 2-4-2
26. Syracuse ---------------- 7-5-4 --- 2-4-2

COASTAL
2. Virginia -------------------- 14-1-1 --- 6-1-1
39. Pittsburgh --------------- 8-6-2 --- 4-3-1
45. North Carolina -------- 7-7-3 --- 3-5-0
14. Notre Dame ------------ 9-6-1 --- 3-5-0
9. Virginia Tech ------------- 8-5-2 --- 2-4-2
56. Duke ----------------------- 7-8-2 --- 2-5-1

Here's the order they finished in if it was a single table as well as the match-ups for the ACC Tournament.

1. Clemson (6) - 19
2. Virginia (2) - 19
3. Wake Forest (5) - 18
4. Pittsburgh (39) - 13
---
5. NC State (27) - 10
6. Louisville (16) - 10
7. North Carolina (45) - 9
8. Notre Dame (14) - 9
9. Boston College (20) - 8
10. Syracuse (26) - 8
11. Virginia Tech (9) - 8
12. Duke (56) - 7

FIRST ROUND
Duke @ NC State
Virginia Tech @ Louisville
Syracuse @ North Carolina
Boston College @ Notre Dame

QUARTERFINALS
Duke-NC State winner vs. Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech-Louisville winner vs. Wake Forest
Syracuse-North Carolina winner vs. Virginia
Boston College-Notre Dame winner vs. Clemson

And finally, here the are in order of Strength of Schedule

3. Syracuse (26)
4. Virginia Tech (9)
5. Louisville (16)
13. Boston College (20)
15. Wake Forest (5)
16. Notre Dame (14)
22. North Carolina (45)
23. NC State (27)
24. Duke (56)
26. Virginia (2)
51. Pittsburgh (39)
78. Clemson (6)

Three notes.

1. Boston College was supposed to play 179. Harvard, which is winless, last Tuesday; the match was "postponed" because of weather and I can only see it getting made up if BC loses in the first two rounds and they schedule a mid-week make-up up the last week of the season before the NCAA Tournament picks are made. It will be interesting to see if this game is actually played.

2. Nine teams seem safe for at-large picks. They're all at least two game over .500 and their RPI is at least 27 with the bubble cutoff currently being 37. At 39, Pitt is smack-dab on the bubble. I think being good enough to earn a bye in the toughest conference in college soccer should get you in, as should beating the No. 2, 9 and 20 teams in the country. The Panthers don't have any bad losses though a tie against 174. Delaware early in the season may be the difference on which side of the line they end up on.

3. That leaves Duke and UNC, both of which need at least two wins to get into contention. Duke has a realistic path as both NC State and Pitt, while good teams, aren't so good that you think they'd be heavy underdogs. If they end up in the semi-finals of the ACC Tournament (or better) that should move their RPI up to bubble territory and get their record to (at least .500).

UNC needs a couple of wins as well and should feel like it has a good shot to do so. They start with Syracuse, which upset the Heels after they blew a 3-1 lead at home in the final 20 minutes a couple of weeks ago. If UNC wins that rematch, it gets UVa, which it took to OT before losing Friday night.

It will be quite interesting to see if any of those three teams manage to do enough in the next couple of weeks to get into the NCAA Tournament and give the ACC more than nine teams in it.

 

So funny things can happen with the RPI this time of year. For instance, you can move up or down and on and off the bubble or in place for a bye or not without even playing.

Here's the current RPI for the ACC teams and how far they moved in two days since not playing.

2. UVa (even)
5. Wake (even)
6. Clemson (even)
8. Virginia Tech (+1)
15. Notre Dame (-1)
16. Louisville (even)
19. Boston College (+1)
27. NC State (even)
28. Syracuse (-2)
36. Pittsburgh (+3)
39. North Carolina (+6)
54. Duke (+2)

These may not seem like a lot but they can make a big difference for a bubble team. For instance, Pitt was the big winner, moving up far enough that they are now the last team in the NCAA Tournament, per GauchoDan's chart.

http://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/search/label/Tournament Projection

 

So the ACC Tournament started Tuesday night.

Notre Dame rallied to beat Boston College in 2OT on an own goal. Ouch.

The N0. 13 Irish (10-6-1) advance to face Clemson in one QF. The Eagles must sit and wait and hope for an at-large bid; their RPI is 23, they're 3 games over .500 and a win over 5. Wake Forest and ties with 2. Virginia and 8. Virginia Tech. They really should get in.

Meanwhile, one of the most disappointing seasons in recent ACC history came to a likely end tonight as UNC fell to Syracuse in PKs following a scoreless draw. The Heels were the pre-season pick (by a lot) by the coaches to win the ACC and were no. 6 nationally in the pre-season poll.

Now, they are 7-7-4 with a 41. RPI and have to hope like they hell the committee leapfrogs them over several teams for one of the last at-large bids - the cutoff is currently 35 and UNC would currently have to leapfrog 4 teams to get in. Honestly, it's hard to see it happening but it's college soccer and weird things happen ever year.

Meanwhile, No. 32 Syracuse (6-5-5) advances to face Virginia in another QF.

The other first round games - Duke-NC State and Louisville-Virginia Tech - are Wednesday.

 

And, what a finish it was!

Goalkeeper needs to stay set and he makes that save. (/sarcasm)