The 2020 Election Mega Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, May 8, 2017.

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  1. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    Bayern München
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    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
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    Trump wont hand over power.

    Today he is calling for Obama to be jailed for treason
     
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  2. SpencerNY

    SpencerNY Member+

    Dec 1, 2001
    Up in the skyway
    The guy being tweet quoted is also one of the biggest Bernie Bro goobers alive. He is kind of a lefty version of Ben Shapiro.
     
  3. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good article from Josh. (Posting most of it, since it is behind a wall)

    Yesterday Fox News published a new presidential poll. The “Fox News” moniker aside, their poll is a solid, legitimate poll, even if it’s a bit on the favorable end toward the President. Trump’s approval rating was on the relative high side for him in this poll at 46%. (53% opposed.) Best numbers are on the economy; worst on health care; not surprising.

    The head to head numbers with Democratic challengers are revealing. Against Joe Biden, Trump is 11 points down, 49%-38%. Against Bernie Sanders, 46%-41%, Harris it’s 41%-41%. Warren, 43%-41%. Buttigieg 40%-41%.

    These numbers are undergirded by other details of the poll, which match most other polls. Underneath the 46% approve, 53% disapprove – only 28% strongly approve the President while 44% strongly disapprove. Again, very challenging numbers.

    One clear thing to draw from this is that, for now, Biden is far and away the strongest candidate – only Sanders is even close to as strong. But the real takeaway is that against named candidates the incumbent President can’t get above 41% support. That is quite simply a massive warning sign for the incumbent, especially when the economy is red hot by conventional definitions.

    On the one hand, that’s great for Democrats. But Trump and his top campaign advisors will see this as well. So for all the clamor about how things are apparently going great for him, they know that they will need a series of very dramatic things to happen over the next 18 months to win reelection – some kind of foreign adventure, having the Justice Department use its power to subvert the election, some alliance with a foreign power to destroy one of the President’s political opponents (what Giuliani was trying to do in Ukraine and likely continues to do), some effort to get the election into the Supreme Court. There are almost limitless possibilities. But something of that magnitude – in fact, probably several – are likely necessary to get the President up into the middle 40s support where the advantages of the electoral college can pull out a victory.
    The point is, President Trump isn’t someone who’s just going to sit back and let himself lose a conventional election, a lawful election. There’s nothing remotely about the man that makes that plausible. He managed an electoral college victory in 2016 with 46.1% of the vote. These numbers suggest he needs to move at least 5% in his favor, a very tall order. 2016 required a perfect storm. Wikileaks, Russia, Comey’s devastating late campaign intervention, a mini-recession in the industrial midwestdriven by a number of transnational economic factors and also tighter monetary policy, Democratic party divisions – all of these had to come together. Trump requires a second perfect storm. But as an incumbent with all the powers of the executive branch he has many more ways to engineer one.

    In addition to all the things that go into a conventional campaign, Democrats need plans in place to counter and/or publicize these kinds of efforts. They need to be prepared for them. Even just ordinary voters and activists need to be prepared. We can already see the outlines of the next eighteen months even if we don’t know the precise particulars.
     
  4. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    Fascist Hellscape
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    He seems not to have studied any statistics
     
  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    On abortion

    If the article is right.

    Extra points for Warren, Gillibrand, Sanders and Gravel.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...democrats-alabama-abortion-ban-hyde-amendment

    Gillibrand.
    https://medium.com/@SenGillibrand/w...-rights-and-what-ill-do-about-it-d2c14c30e1e7

    Sanders
    https://berniesanders.com/issues/fight-for-womens-rights/

    Gravel
    https://www.mikegravel.org/issues/reproductive-rights-and-bodily-autonomy/

    I did not see a link to Warrens plan.
     
  6. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    Bayern München
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    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
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    FC Sankt Pauli
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    This is what I have been thinking as well

    They need to cheat on quite a huge scale to win now. But seeing as Trump was quite happy to conspire with Putin to help win in 2016 it seems unlikely there is any step too far
     
  7. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Trump will not leave Washington without being forcibly evicted. The alleged Constitutional crisis is only beginning. One year from now, we will talk about how relatively sane he was in spring 2019. He is heading full bore into becoming a 100% Cult Leader Conspiracy Theorist. It won't be long until he arrives.
     
  8. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Agree with the assessments. I can't see this guy willingly leaving the WH in 2021, specially since he may be indicted right after that in NY. We are really and truly in uncharted waters. It will take a massive mobilization for the elections and beyond to get this lunatic out.
     
  9. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Buy guns then :whistling:
     
  10. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
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    Agreed.

    Best case Biden wins despite cheating, but then Trump doesn't leave and contests the election in the Supreme Court.

    This is also why I argue Obama should have suspended the election in 2016 when it was clear Trump was in bed with Putin
     
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  11. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
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    Bayern München
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    The criminalisation of DOJ is an obvious issue.

    Barr is now going to launch fake investigations throughout the campaign. One key goal will be to try to take down Biden - this is what Rudy is already trying to do.

     
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  12. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We have a scumbag and a hack as AG. He should be impeached.
     
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  13. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    I think the orange shitgibbon will dump Pence and have one his loathsome offspring as his running mate. Probably Ivanka, he thinks she's hot. Then he can resign and the new prez will pardon him.
     
  14. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Interesting even though both the house and senate would have to confirm her. I don't think an acting vice-president (Trump seems to prefer unconfirmed people running departments) can pardon Trump.
     
  15. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There’s no such thing as an acting VP. He can’t make a recess appointment for that.
     
  16. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    I know. I did misread Funkfoot's post. The earliest under his scenario she could become VP would be Jan 2020 and no confirmation would be required.
    I think Pence would pardon Trump so Ivana's running wouldn't be necessary.
     
  17. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    I think he would like the family dynasty thing - just like they do in North Korea.
     
  18. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
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    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
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  19. totti fan

    totti fan Red Card

    Jun 24, 2010
    Club:
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    as opposed to the pro-war boosters of the other Democratic candidates?
     
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  20. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
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    Gibraltar
    By this logic, wouldn't you want to inject a voice of reason into their information bubble.

    What you're saying is that you prefer a media landscape that is neatly carved up into 100% isolated information bubbles. For me this is such a no brainer, because I actually watched the Fox town halls. They were great, and the conversation between right and left is EXACTLY what this country needs. An ability to cross the aisle without shouting and yelling. I thought Fox was very fair with the Dems that came on ... in some ways more fair than the CNN town halls I watched.

    Some of you guys in this thread have such a zero sum mentality. Everything always has to be viewed through the lens of the culture war. I hope you realize that there are conservative people out there saying the same exact thing about the left leaning media, and it's just as dumb coming from them. It's a free country. Nobody forces anyone to watch any particular network. Everyone owns a remote control and is free to watch something else. I try to hammer this point home to conservatives who whine about the left media.

    If you're a politician, it's not your job to pass judgement on the quality of the media (1st amendment). Your job is to talk directly to the viewers. Your job is to win ... period.
     
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  21. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    lol ... when the Russia attacks on Trump fizzle out, gotta find a new target.

    This is a no brainer. Russia likes Gabbard because she doesn't support American military expansionism. Just because those interests overlap, doesn't mean that this is bad for America. As a taxpayer I'm 100% behind her foreign policy. The US has zero business in Syria, Iraq, Israel, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Lybia, Venezuela or anywhere else. Our military should only be used for our defense, or mutual defense reserved only for allies who share our Western democratic/human rights values.
     
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  22. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Da tovarisch.
     
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  23. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    This isn't new. It's a reminder... with names.
     
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  24. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Tulsi is this years Jill Stein

    Have we learned nothing yet?
     
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  25. Deadtigers

    Deadtigers Member+

    Jul 23, 2015
    Independent Republic of the Bronx, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
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    Ghana
    Liz Warren is having town halls in West Virginia, but not on FOX. just saying you can go into the belly of the beast without legitimizing the monster.

    Your whole paragraph on zero sum ignores actual ********ing reality. You like the dude in the Zombie movies that his wife soul is still in there. What actual actions have you seen to give you this academic style theory that reaching across the aisl works. Need I remind you that there was a Zika outbreak in the American Southeast, which is Florida and the like and Republicans refused to increase CDC funding despite it helping their supporter. They forced the CDC to shutdown other programs and put money into the Zika program and when they finally agreed on a bill, they refused to help re-fund the CDC programs that were de-funded to help stop Zika. And all these politicians won re-election in 2016. And Fox News was right there blaming Obama for the hold-up in aid. So with that mindset explain how a plan to create green jobs is gonna win people over.
     
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