The 2020 Election Mega Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, May 8, 2017.

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  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I started this thread to post crazy-ass list from the tabloid style rag known as The Hill:

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/332156-the-43-people-who-might-run-against-trump-in-2020

    And my thoughts on their list:

    --

    Former Vice President Joe Biden: Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): Doubt it.

    Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.): Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.): Doubt it.

    Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.): Maybe

    Facebook CEO and founder Mark Zuckerberg: Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.): Doubt it.

    Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.): Maybe.

    Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper: Maybe, but doubt it.

    New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo: Doubt it.

    Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley: Maybe

    Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro: Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.): Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.): Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio): Not gonna happen.

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick: Not gonna happen.

    New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio: Not gonna happen.

    Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban: Not gonna happen.

    Environmental activist Tom Steyer: Not gonna happen.

    Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez: Not gonna happen.

    Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton: Not gonna happen.

    Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe: Not gonna happen.

    California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom: Not gonna happen.

    Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg: Not gonna happen.

    Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz: Not gonna happen.

    Former first lady Michelle Obama: Not gonna happen.

    Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: Are you fcuking with me?

    Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii): Not gonna happen. And she's a nut.

    Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.): Not gonna happen.

    Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.): Not gonna happen.

    California Gov. Jerry Brown: Not gonna happen. (But I wish!)

    Media mogul Oprah Winfrey: Stop it, already.

    Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.): Not gonna happen.

    Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean: Not gonna happen.

    Former Vice President Al Gore: Doubt it. (But it's not totally crazy.)

    Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.): Not gonna happen.

    Former Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.): Maybe as an independent, but I doubt even that.

    Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Doubt it.

    Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.): Doubt it.

    New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Not gonna happen.

    Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.): Doubt it.

    Washington Gov. Jay Inslee: Quite possibly.

    --

    Yeah, out of 43 names I found one guy that kind of makes sense. And he's the last guy on the list.
     
  2. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why is Sherrod Brown not gonna happen? He's got cred at both ends of the democratic spectrum, is a proven commodity from a swing state, and while he's old he's not ancient.

    If he wins re-election in 2018, he's the front-runner IMO.
     
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  3. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    How did my governor make the list? Mark Dayton collapsed in his last State of the State speech. Poor guy has so many health problems us Minnesotans are just hoping he makes it to the end of his term in 2018. He would have made a fantastic president though. Real sharp, he knows policy and he doesn't lie. He'll tell you an inconvenient truth without hesitation, even to his own party. My favorite thing about Dayton is that he gets more of his point across in 5 minutes than most politicians can in one hour.
     
  4. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    #4 Boloni86, May 8, 2017
    Last edited: May 8, 2017
    Agreed ... I actually think he'd have a harder time in the primary than the general. Would minority voters view him solely as a white working class candidate? I can see him winning every state in the Midwest, and even some states in the Northeast and the plains. Not so sure about the South and the West.
     
  5. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fair concerns.
     
  6. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    It has never been apparent to me that he truly has the inclination to do it. That's why I doubt it.
     
  7. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Seems like "doubt it" would've been a better tag than "not gonna happen," but to each their own.

    What's your reasoning on Kamala Harris, btw? Can't win the SocDem left?
     
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Strongly doubt it.

    Newbie senator. And from everything I've seen of her (and I am a Californian, so I've see a lot), there's nothing about her that gives you the sense that she has any ambitions for the presidency. Indeed, if anything, you kind of get the sense that she's thinking more along the lines of senator for life.

    Compare that the Newsom. If he was governor now, he'd run for president. But he's not, and I suspect he'll be too green in 2020.

    Then again, we just elected Donald Trump. So concerns about greenness may be overblown today.
     
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  9. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    lol
    lol
     
  10. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    What? Comparing that to Obama, or something?

    Because you could tell all the way back to 2004 that he had ambition to be president.

    I just don't see that ambition in a lot of these people, including Harris.
     
  11. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think she's Obama, but "newbie senator" isn't remotely disqualifying. Hell, it's a benefit – "I've got experience unlike Trump, but unlike [insert pol here] I haven't been in Washington long enough to be corrupt."

    We'll see how she votes on certain things in the next 24 months, and then we'll know how ambitious she is. As it is, I'd be a little bit surprised if she's not in the primaries.
     
  12. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    Also, why is Mark Warner 'not gonna happen'? I actually think it will happen. He's probably the best positioned to take the center left lane.

    A good combination of government experience and private sector experience.

    I can see him drawing from two bases. The "coastal elite" corridor from Maryland, Delaware, Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island. And I can see him doing well in the South in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee. Maybe even Texas. It all depends on the primary field of course.
     
  13. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Some may not like her, but Gabbard should be among those names, even if "absolutely not" is the consensus here. Unlike Sanders, she actually is a Democrat.
     
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    She's a nut who coddles dictators. She also played footsie with accepting a Trump administration position. Further, she's the favorite "liberal" of the alt-right with reason. And the only reason the Bernie camp likes her is because she liked Bernie.
     
  15. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    She has not adopted a vocally oppositional persona so far. I think she's in the senate for the long haul, and I'd be shocked if she's in the primaries.

    I don't expect Newsom (who has certainly adopted a vocally oppositional persona) to be there either, but he's more likely than she is.
     
  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Is center left really going to fly in this next primary? I very much doubt it.

    Plus, he's basically already said no, he's not running.
     
  17. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    The scenario that I've been playing out in my head is a repeat of the 2012 GOP primary.

    With the wide open field I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-12+ Dem candidates in the primary. Especially since the party will be urging people to run as a reflex against the mistakes of 2016. In a field that large, it's possible that the frontrunners in Iowa, New Hampshire etc ... will be polling only around 20-25%. Which means you don't need a particularly massive base to start from. If establishment voters coalesce around one person while the other factions remain divided, you could see a Mitt Romney figure emerge as the winner in one or more of those early races. And if you win Iowa and New Hampshire, the momentum sort of takes a life of its own.
     
  18. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I disagree. But I suppose Oprah is a real contender. LOL

    It's also kind of funny how quickly the establishment has come out against her. I'm inclined to suppoort her based off that alone.
     
  19. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    So, I listened to Kamala Harris on Pod Save America last night.

    She said both "fcuk" and "motherfcuker," which greatly boosted her image in my eyes.

    But I still don't think she's gonna run in 2020.
     
  20. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    "The bitch swore! No way I'm voting for that ******"

    [/GOP values voter]
     
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  21. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Didn't Cheney tell Lehey to STFU on the floor?

    Oooh, she swore, BFD
     
  22. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    Kamala's a nut with some odd ties to foreign tyrants. But she's hawt and she likes guns.

    I don't know why you think Booker, Cuomo, and Warren are not gonna happen. All three seem eminently plausible candidates to me, especially Booker. Cuomo's been leaning away from his cronyist and authoritarian tendencies and adopting more popular lefty views, like free public college education in NY. Gilibrand has ruled herself out.
     
  23. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As far as Booker and Warren are concerned, the window on them has closed. 2016 was their shot. Why? They're Senators and the only way to get elected out of the Senate is if you haven't been there long enough to have a record that'll piss somebody off.

    I'm trying to figure out how I feel about Hickenlooper. He'll be term-limited out of office in 2018, so he'll have plenty of time to run, but I just don't think that he'll get any traction because he's the sort of pro-business, centrist Democrat that'll get elected Governor in a purple state like Colorado, but is a bit out of vogue when there's a lot of passion for more progressive and populist stances and candidates. And the fact that he had pro-fracking and anti-single-payer stances as Governor would mean that he'd be DOA in the primary, especially since his personal style is more the goofball uncle than the cool dad that our most recent centrist Democratic President had. And that's before you get into the question of whether he'd actually want to do it, which I'm not sure that he does.

    HOWEVER... here's something to consider. In 2020, one of Colorado's two Senate seats will be up for election. That seat is currently held by Cory Gardner, a Republican who's voting 100% with Trump. He's representing a state that's gone for Democrats the last three elections. This is an election that Hick could win pretty easily. He'll likely leave the Governor's office after eight years of economic growth and low unemployment in the state. He's personally popular, and he'd be running against a guy who's been carrying the water for an unpopular President in the Senate.
     
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  24. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    I disagree. I have a feeling we'll see many, many candidates dying to run against this administration or it's tainted successor.

    Running for pres when you're in the Senate is kind of a no-lose situation. You raise your profile even if you don't win (C.F. St. Bernard, among many others).
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I think you mean Tulsi Gabbard.
     

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