The 2018 USL Table: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers, and the Search for Toast Everlasting

Discussion in 'United Soccer Leagues' started by SierraSpartan, Aug 14, 2018.

Tags:
  1. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    May we all open our Good Book and follow along...

    ...and the Good Lord said unto us all, “It is I who made the earth, and created man upon it; I stretched out the heavens with My hands and I ordained all their Toast.” (Sunbeam 45:12)

    Yes, my friends, it is time to tell the wheat from the chaff, the effers from the effees, the strangely dressed from the merely Canadian. Your Time of Toast, USL Edition, is upon us, and we already have multiple portions of the Heavenly Goodness with which to share upon us all.

    First of all, the definitions of “Toast” and some of the stats, courtesy of @Knave, can be found on this thread here. The basic rules are simple: Once a team is Toast, they stay Toast, until they are either eliminated, or get raised back from the dead (“Lazarakia”). This does not happen often, although it did happen in MLS last year, and the only way to achieve Lazarakia status is to reduce both the CD and AD to below 2.00 by the end of the week’s matches, and get back into (and stay in) playoff position.

    Quick basic rundown of the column headings:

    MP – Matches Played
    PTS – Total Points
    PPM – Points Per Match
    GD – Goal Differential
    MR – Matches Remaining
    MAX – Maximum Possible Points
    PACE – Current Pace (PTS + MR*PPM)
    MAG# - Magic Number
    MPPG – Magic Number Points Per Game
    TRG# - Tragic Number
    TPPG – Tragic Number Points Per Game
    AD# - Actual Despair Number - #PPM to stay above 8th place
    CD# - Calculated Despair Number - #PPM to stay above 50th percentile (East) or 47th percentile (West)
    SOSP – Strength of Schedule of Teams Played
    SOSR – Strength of Schedule of Remaining Schedule
    SOSRat – Ratio of SOS Played over SOS Remaining - >1 is good, <1 is bad

    This type of thing was done on the Sacramento board for the 2016 season, but life seriously intervened in 2017. Now I’m back with a vengeance in 2018, and I will be your Holy Avenging Toaster of Inferior Footy.

    Now, with that out of the way, let’s get on to the toastification. We start in the East, where three teams are officially toast as of this date, being Richmond, Atlanta, and Wooden Spoon leader Toronto...

    upload_2018-8-14_8-33-50.png

    In the West, only one team has that lofty crispy perch right now, that being our consistent cellar-dwellers in Tulsa, but S2’s sitting right on the perch, getting their golden brown toastiness ready to show for everyone.

    upload_2018-8-14_8-35-12.png

    Pro-tip: A GD of -25 after 20 matches or so is never gonna get the job done, no matter what league you're in.

    Here’s a quick power poll top-to-bottom – 50% wins rank, 30% PPM rank, 10% GD Rank, 10% SOSP Rank…

    upload_2018-8-14_8-37-48.png

    Right now, the Wooden Spoon is Toronto’s for the taking, and it looks like FCC’s gonna try to buy themselves home field advantage in the playoffs. SLC seems to be leveling off a bit, and OC and SAC could possibly make a late charge.

    Coming Up: Now that we’re getting down to ~~ 10-11 matches remaining in the schedule for most teams, we can look at who’s left on each team’s schedule, and I’ve come up with the Strength of Schedule ratio – just take the SOS of teams to already played, and divide it by the SOS of teams to be played. If you’re above 1.00, that’s a favorable figure. If you’re below 1.00, you have tougher sledding ahead. Good news if you are Sacramento and SPR, bad news if you're the Riverhounds or Las Vegas...

    upload_2018-8-14_8-48-51.png

    Upcoming matches look like this, home fixtures are in bold:

    upload_2018-8-14_8-51-27.png

    Well, that's enough for now. Initial plan is on weekly updates, possibly twice weekly if we have any interesting playoff chases. Or I may just get lazy.

    Cheers!
     
    Yoshou repped this.
  2. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Masochist.;)
     
    2in10 repped this.
  3. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
  4. mangerson

    mangerson Member+

    Sacramento Republic, San Jose Earthquakes
    Jan 8, 2008
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm glad the gospel of @Knave has spread to USL. Thank you, St. @SierraSpartan.

    It's hard to believe this would be Toronto's first wooden spoon. But, as they say in the RomCom's, we'll always have Tulsa.
     
    SierraSpartan repped this.
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Kind of goes with the whole soccer fan thing.
     
    2in10 and SierraSpartan repped this.
  6. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Results! New Toast! Epic Faceplants! All this and more in the Week #2 Version of USL ToastWatch 2018!

    First, on to the results:
    LAS 1 @ OC 3
    NC 2 @ IND 3
    RIC 0 @ OTT 2
    SAC 1 @ STL 2
    SAN 1 @ POR 2
    BET 2 @ TOR 0
    IND 0 @ OTT 0
    CLT 0 @ PIT 0
    PEN 2 @ RIC 3
    CHS 0 @ CIN 3
    NSH 0 @ LOU 0
    OKC 4 @ RGV 2
    STL 0 @ FRE 1
    TUL 2 @ SLC 3
    PHX 2 @ LAS 0
    LA 4 @ SAC 1
    SEA 1 @ POR 4
    RNO 3 @ SPR 3

    The above results were good enough to send two more teams (both from the West) over the Tropic of Toast...

    upload_2018-8-21_7-26-36.png

    upload_2018-8-21_7-27-9.png

    Welcome, RGV and S2, in to the Brown Toasty Goodness. Your faith in mediocrity will pass unto you rich rewards in the Crispy Afterlife.

    PEN, you're on the clock. T2 is still the odds-on for Spoonage.

    Power rankings didn't change all that much except for SAC taking a tumble after losing 2-1 on the road to STL and 4-1 at home (!) to LA...

    upload_2018-8-21_7-30-13.png

    Not that much change in the SOS ratio. Spork Rangers are still riding high, Vegas and Riverhounds are still screwed...

    upload_2018-8-21_7-36-13.png

    Remaining schedules:

    upload_2018-8-21_7-39-50.png

    Burma Shave.
     
  7. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm still not sure what the Sounders plan is for S2... From what I hear, they have a very good academy crop working their way through the system and those kids are getting a good amount of playtime when the team is in Tacoma. However, they also need to start winning some games. While I understand that isn't the primary goal of a developmental team, the Sounders did hand over ownership of the team to the Tacoma Rainiers and I'm sure the Rainiers would like to make some money on the team and piling up three times as many losses as wins is not going to help in that measure...
     
  8. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    I suppose it depends on what each MLS team wishes to do with its respective -2 team.

    SLC has been at or near the top of the table the last two years; NYRB's team won USL in 2016. Portland seems to be actually functional this season after a few years of craptasticness.

    On the other side, MTL was so bad they closed the club down and shunted its players to Ottawa for the Fury. ATL is a tire fire, RGV can't seem to get its crap together after moving into the new facility, and LA and Spork Rangers are continuing the ways of mediocrity.

    I see the MLS O&O teams (POR, TOR, SPR, ATL, LA, NY, possibly BET) moving down to USL-3 with affiliation type relationships at the USL-Championship level. Whether or not there will be a 1:1 ratio as is seen with MLB and AAA is yet to be seen.
     
  9. VBCity72

    VBCity72 Member+

    Aug 17, 2014
    Oki, J-pan
    Club:
    Plymouth Argyle FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And it will be their last in D2 at least.
     
    2in10 repped this.
  10. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Big week of results in USL, going a bit like this:

    upload_2018-8-27_7-24-52.png

    And as we look at the standings, we get...great googly moogly.

    [​IMG]

    Yep, we had to bring ole Milton in to process this week's results, as we get FIVE teams crossing the Tropic of Toast, those being CLT, TBR, COS, LAS, and LA. Welcome in, guys - ya burnt.

    Now let's face it - TBR got screwed deeply and wetly this week, but they were already teetering on the edge, so it was only appropriate I suppose that CIN be the one to push them over, seeing as how CIN and its fanbase are pushing everyone over the line of late.

    To the standings!!!

    upload_2018-8-27_7-41-19.png

    Official congrats go out to FCC, who have formally punched their ticket this week to the 2018 USL playoffs with a pair of wins. The lower end of the EC playoff picture is shaping up to be a pretty decent four-team dogfight for two slots. Nothing, however, can impede T2's march to the Spoon.

    upload_2018-8-27_7-42-42.png

    SAN had a bad week with two losses, and it dropped them from sixth to tenth place. Another very decent looking dogfight out west for the bottom of the playoff table.

    upload_2018-8-27_8-14-58.png

    Coming up in the next week or two we will highlight matches that may, or may not, have impact on the playoff race. Or I'll just be a lazy dink and put up the TBP matrix again.

    Until next week!
     

    Attached Files:

    mangerson and Yoshou repped this.
  11. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Well, we've arrived in September. 22 matches on the week, and the sum total of all that action was...not much. No new toast, no elimination, only one team got back above the red line in the west. Pretty straightforward. Almost boring, right?

    upload_2018-9-4_11-16-4.png

    Wait. Enhance...
    upload_2018-9-4_11-18-38.png

    Enhance...

    upload_2018-9-4_11-19-35.png

    Allrighty, then.

    Not that it'll make any sort of difference in their future spoonage prospects - especially since T2 finished the week with a loss at home to Atlanta - but seeing Louisville getting bit in the butt like that takes some of the sting out of SRFC's faceplant Saturday before last against LA2. Probably nice for those kids to get a convincing win against a team at the top of the table as well.

    To the Standings!

    In the east, not much change, just a bit of shuffling of playoff position.

    upload_2018-9-4_12-36-56.png

    Ditto the west, with SAN moving up to #8, STL dropping down.

    upload_2018-9-4_12-38-19.png

    Coming up in the following week, we will probably have our first two eliminations, as well as a potential playoff berth clinch (or two) in the west.

    Schedule...

    upload_2018-9-4_12-41-17.png

    So Say We All.
     

    Attached Files:

    Yoshou repped this.
  12. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Game week #29 is now upon us, and we finally have our first three eliminations from playoff contention. The first two, Tulsa and Toronto, are obvious. Contestant #3 is S2, who went 0-1-1 on the week, bad enough for the Holy Toaster to descend and claim His New Additions to the Flock.

    Also a bit of a surprise earthquake in the West standings, where SLC has hit a three-game skid while OC remained hot, and now for the first time since very early in the season, Real Monarchs are no longer leading the pace in the West.

    Results:

    upload_2018-9-11_14-30-39.png

    Nothing really outstanding or surprising except for Hate Week being postponed for a couple of days in Louisville, but both those teams' fanbases make God want to cry, so when they get together a monsoon appears...

    [​IMG]

    Funny. The really soggy parts of that field seem to be where the baseball infield is. Funny how that works.

    To the standings!

    upload_2018-9-11_14-36-51.png

    And there it is, ladies and germs, our first elimination. I swear T2 was toast before the first ball was kicked this season, but they managed to hang around until week #29, so...bravo, and make a nice spot on the mantle for your Wooden Spoon. PEN's looking awful brown and crispy right now, and RIC's got a nice, gray "E" ready for it on next week's standings.

    Meanwhile, out West, we had the shakeup at the top, and two teams get the official boot. No new toast, though, which I find surprising...

    upload_2018-9-11_14-39-9.png

    Despite doing everybody a solid by beating SLC, RGV's got an "E" ticket ride coming next week, and both Fresno and OKC may get that golden brown color that everybody craves. At the top, we have the changing of the guard, and SAC has managed to weather everyone else's games-in-hand and actually gain a couple points on the leaders in the process. If Republic can take care of business in Oklahoma in the next week and a half, they may vault themselves farther up than the 4th position they now hold.

    Upcoming matches:

    upload_2018-9-11_14-44-42.png

    SEE YA NEXT TIME!!! (/borg)
     

    Attached Files:

    mangerson repped this.
  13. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Game week #30. For some, a bit on the soggy side, forcing the rescheduling of one game with playoff implications (CLT @ CHS). Nashville, Ottawa and NC are duking it out for the 8th spot in the east, and STL and SAN are still in the dogfight for the last spot in the west, with OKC deciding whether or not they want to chuck their hats in. Also, RGV and RIC were officially eliminated, and COS may be making a case for Lazarakia...but they're gonna need a couple more wins and some assistance from Toast Jesus before we can start talking about that.

    Results on the week:

    upload_2018-9-19_9-45-20.png upload_2018-9-19_9-45-38.png

    To the Standings!

    upload_2018-9-19_9-37-1.png


    Nashville and NCFC have, right now, that most precious commodity in late-season footy over Ottawa: Games in hand. It's also the only reason Atlanta hasn't been eliminated yet, and they spend the remainder of their schedule at home. Cincy hasn't clinched the division/HFA yet, but that'll probably come in the coming week.

    upload_2018-9-19_9-37-57.png

    Out west, OC and PHX and POR remain red-hot, while SLC and SAC were idle. STL and SAN are at each other's throats for the #8 spot, and OKC is (maybe) thinking about making a run. LAS is next-in-line for the E-ticket ride, and some people in Reno don't seem to like Vegas fans or players all that much...

    upload_2018-9-19_9-42-36.png

    Yeesh.

    Upcoming games:

    upload_2018-9-19_9-47-26.png

    PSA: So you see that guy up there in the Reno 1868 getup?

    Don't be that guy.

    Until next week...
     

    Attached Files:

  14. mangerson

    mangerson Member+

    Sacramento Republic, San Jose Earthquakes
    Jan 8, 2008
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just to make the playoff race in the West a little more interesting, each of the top six play road games Saturday. We'll see who are the road warriors when the heat is on. Aside from Swope Park, who plays a Tulsa team that is clearly just playing out the schedule.

    I wonder if the kilt-wearing punching bag above has done enough to motivate LAS from being tagged with the dreaded (e).
     
  15. 2in10

    2in10 Member

    Reno 1868 FC and Nevada Coyotes FC (UPSL)
    United States
    Jun 19, 2016
    Sparks, NV
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Almost but no cigar. They were actually a little wasteful in the first half that might have saved them but as we say in Nevada "no dice". Lights out.
     
  16. 2in10

    2in10 Member

    Reno 1868 FC and Nevada Coyotes FC (UPSL)
    United States
    Jun 19, 2016
    Sparks, NV
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    BTW SierraSpartan great job and love your commentary.
     
  17. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    upload_2018-9-25_11-21-39.jpeg

    This was the week for the E-ticket ride for a lot of teams, but there was one team that has been playing like it wants to be eliminated as well...

    upload_2018-9-25_11-23-18.png

    WTF, Real Monarchs? You fall out of first place for a bit, and then it all goes to crap? Five matches, 0.2 PPM, -10 GD. Bruuuuutal.

    Results on the week:

    upload_2018-9-25_11-34-35.png upload_2018-9-25_11-34-56.png

    Nothing surprising there except for SLC getting utterly pasted in their two games on the week down in SoCal. It would seem that the smog doesn't agree with our brethren from behind the Zion Curtain.

    To the standings!

    upload_2018-9-25_11-42-22.png

    Well, there it is. FCC is at home for the EC playoffs, and is one point away from having HFA for all the playoffs. I'm gonna love watching them lose in the first round on PKs. PEN is now officially toast, and ATL has managed somehow to stave off elimination. Pretty good dogfight for the #7 and #8 slot in the EC, with both NSH and NC having the all-important games in hand.

    upload_2018-9-25_11-45-16.png

    Eliminations aplenty out west, as LAS, LA and FRE all were eliminated, and OKC got to meet Toast Jesus on their way to elimination some time this week. SAN had better pray for some bad luck to happen to STL, because with only 3 matches left, there's no way they're gonna catch either Reno or Spork Rangers.

    Speaking of Reno...



    I can't even.

    Upcoming matches this week:

    upload_2018-9-25_11-57-5.png

    Well, that's it for this week. And if you're feeling brown and toasty, there's only one thing to do...

    [​IMG]

    DON'T...GET...ELIMINATED!

    Until next time...
     
    Salvadanish repped this.
  18. 2in10

    2in10 Member

    Reno 1868 FC and Nevada Coyotes FC (UPSL)
    United States
    Jun 19, 2016
    Sparks, NV
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #18 2in10, Sep 25, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2018
    Reno is 12-7-10 and 46 points.

    Portland is in the Playoffs because San Antonio can not catch them in the win column.

    St. Louis is 13-8-10 and 49 points.
     
  19. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    The USL has Portland as qualified.

    https://www.uslsoccer.com/usl-standings
     
    2in10 repped this.
  20. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    #20 SierraSpartan, Sep 25, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2018
    They effectively are, but with a Magic Number of 1, the math says they can still be tied, if not caught.

    I'll run through the playoff permutations next week, no time this week.

    Besides, I'm still giddy from this week's USL news. Aren't you?

    EDIT TO ADD: Just looked at this week's standings. Ottawa should technically be toast, but I missed that color change. Don't feel like digging back into the Excel to fix it right now.

    Sue me.
     
  21. mangerson

    mangerson Member+

    Sacramento Republic, San Jose Earthquakes
    Jan 8, 2008
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is it too late to start talking tie-breakers?
    1. League wins
    2. Goal differential
    3. Goals scored (no love for the D)
    4. Pts vs. conference top four
     
    2in10 repped this.
  22. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Match week #32 update: Very little concrete happened. OKC and ATL were finally eliminated. Ottawa moves up, Pink Calves move down, but the EC has five teams battling for three slots, with three points between them. The #5 team, Indy Eleven could still fall out of the playoffs if all the dice roll correctly, which is tough when you've been in the mix for the entire season until 32 games in.

    Results!

    upload_2018-10-1_13-52-31.png upload_2018-10-1_13-53-25.png

    Yep, more focused on the EC this week, and all those games basically meant...nothing.

    So...where do we go from here?

    Well, first, let's look at the standings...

    upload_2018-10-1_13-55-55.png

    Like was noted above, NY went from 7th to 10th because they tied a match. Nashville went 4 points in two matches...and stayed right where they were. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Upcoming games for the major players are as follows:

    IND - BET, @Lou
    BET - @IND, TBR
    OTT - @CHS
    NC - NY, @Lou, @CLT
    NSH - @Ric, TOR, CIN
    NY - @NC, @PEN, PIT

    Toughest sledding up there is for Indy. That BET @ IND match next Saturday is going to answer a lot of questions about the EC playoff picture.

    Easiest path is for Nashville, who can easily pick up six of the nine available against two cellar dwellers in Richmond and Toronto.

    Must-win situation is Ottawa, who have to get some type of positive result on their sole remaining game at Charleston, preferably a win, otherwise they're gonna need some serious churn at the bottom of the table to stay in the top eight.

    At the top of the table, LOU and PIT are duking it out for #2, and each has three matches. LOU is up on the games won tiebreak, and Riverhounds have a visit upcoming this week from F₵₵.

    Out west...

    upload_2018-10-1_14-6-49.png

    OKC was officially eliminated, and POR was officially moved into playoff position by dint of the games won tiebreak. Reno, even though they are above T2 due to better PPM, still have not officially punched their ticket, but that should probably happen this week.

    OC, PHX and SAC seem to be peaking at the right time, and SLC's astonishing tumble down the table continues apace.

    At the bottom, it's SAN on the outside looking in. While they're level with STL on games won, they're still three points off the red line, and are going to need some help to get back up and over. Upcoming important matches in the west are...

    RNO - @POR, @PHX, OC
    SPR - @SAC, LA
    STL - @PHX, OKC
    SAN - LAS, RGV

    So the good news for SAN is they've got some serious lower-echelon teams to play at home. Two of their competitors have matches at PHX, and the other has one at SAC. Reno is by far in the best shape, being just on the verge of playoff eligibility and also having the game in hand on the three others, but they also have a pretty brutal schedule to finish out, and it would be VERY easy for them to go 0-fer on that list of games.

    As to the top of the table, OC and PHX just keep on winning, and PHX has the game in hand on OC. The PHX schedule is RNO-@LAS-POR, while OC has SEA-@RNO. Lurking in third is SAC, with a comparatively easy SPR-@LA-LAS trio of games remaining, but down six points with three matches remaining is probably a bridge too far for the Republic.

    Things should really move in this coming week. If nothing else, we should get more clarity at the bottom of the EC table.

    And who knows - we may also have the presentation of the Spoon.

    Until next time!
     
    2in10 repped this.
  23. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    Howdy, all.

    Sorry for the delay, but life kinda got in the way this week. Happens to the best of us, so things will be abbreviated in advance of this final weekend in USL play in 2018.

    First, the standings:

    upload_2018-10-12_15-7-54.png

    Yep, TFC2 got the Spoon. No big surprise there, but they did manage to win a couple of games and make it a close thing.

    upload_2018-10-12_15-9-41.png

    The programming kinda glitches out when we have a team with no games remaining, but the math holds up.

    Games That Matter this weekend:

    In the east, CHS @ OTT, NC @ CLT, TBR @ BET
    In the west, OKC @ STL, RGV @ SAN, POR @ PHX, LAS @ SAC, LA @ SPR

    Playoff implications! Excitement! Doings! Comings! Goings! Here are the playoff scenarios for your 2018 playoff contenders, starting with the east...

    1. CIN - HFA throughout.
    2. LOU - 2nd place locked in.
    3. PIT - 3rd place locked in.
    4. CHS - 4th place locked in.
    5. IND - in the playoffs, can hold 5th place with win @ LOU, could fall as far as 8th with loss
    6. NY - in the playoffs, can move up to 5th place with win vs PIT and LOU losing points, could fall as far as 8th with loss
    7. NSH - controls own fate - clinches playoffs with at least a tie at home vs CIN, could potentially move up to #5 if IND and NY stumble.
    8. BET - controls own fate - clinches playoffs with at least a tie vs TBR, unless OTT can make up a 24-goals scored deficit. Can fall below the line if they lose and OTT wins. Can get up to 5th with help, more likely in the 7-8 slot
    9. OTT - Needs to win, has to hope either BET or NSH lose. Would hold wins tiebreak on both BET and NSH if they both lose. Best case scenario is 7th.
    10. NC - Pretty much on life support right now. They need to beat CLT and BET has to lose (they can't catch NSH), whereupon NC goes through on GS tiebreak, as PPM will be level if NC wins and BET loses.

    Out West...

    1. OC - pretty much a solid #1 - they can still drop to #2 if they lose @ RNO and PHX wins with a pickup of +6 in the goals scored column. Not likely, but possible.
    2. PHX - see above re OC. They can get to #1, but still have work to do in order to maintain #2. They already lost some easy points earlier this week, so they need to beat POR at home to keep SAC at bay.
    3. SAC - Worst case is where they are right now at #3, can get up to #2 if PHX gives away points and Republic beats LAS at home.
    4. SLC - The wheels on the SLC bus full-on came off in the last month, and they could conceivably slip to #5 if they lose or tie at Fresno and Reno beats OC.
    5. RNO - Locked into #5 with a puncher's chance at #4 as outlined above.
    6. POR - Only guaranteed playoffs because of the Wins tiebreak. Could fall as far as 8th if they don't get points at PHX and others have positive results.
    7. STL - Win or tie, and they're in. Where they will be is #6, #7 or #8, depending on others' results.
    8. SPR - See above, except they have to win to guarantee playoffs. They can also lose and get in, but that'll mean SAN has to tie or lose at home to RGV
    9. SAN - Not in the best position, but it is a walkable path - they need to beat RGV at home, and hope that LA beats SPR on the road - they can't catch STL.
     

    Attached Files:

    2in10 repped this.
  24. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    [​IMG]

    Well, here are the playoff brackets. And, submitted for your consideration, are the relative placements should any upsets happen along the way...

    upload_2018-10-19_7-42-14.png

    Playoffs begin tonight in Phoenix, then we go big and wide on Saturday.
     

Share This Page