The 2017 Table :: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Farcical Figures

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 5, 2017.

  1. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Bob Gansler pushed it, then Bob Bradley broke it.
     
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  2. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Seriously, why are you in the BigSoccer MLS N&A forum - of all places to be - if you feel that way.
     
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  3. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    Cheatin' Bob.

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
    JasonMa repped this.
  4. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nah, he didn't cheat. He just used a loophole like an asshole.
     
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  5. POdinCowtown

    POdinCowtown Member+

    Jan 15, 2002
    Columbus
    So what do the MLS rules of competition say should be done in this case?
     
  6. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Gansler pushed it, but more or less stayed within the spirit of the law. After a field player injury after using all three subs*, Gansler moved Meola into the field position players spot and brought Bo Oshoniyi to tend goal. I think Meola wore 28 or 29, and I might actually have a photo of him in the field somewhere.

    What he didn't do was the next step. Which became a huge deal, probably not because Bradley did it. But that he did it on national TV at DC United***, and the field player in question (16 or 17 year-old Eddie Gaven) scored the game winning golden goal**

    notes to noobs

    *what we're discussing is that in the early years, MLS had a 3+1 substitution rule. 3 field players and 1 goalkeeper sub. The GK sub was designed to allow teams to always have a pocket GK replacement in case of injury so a team wouldn't be forced to play a field player in goal. Both Gansler, and especially Bradley abused that rule. Gansler to keep 11 players on the field, Bradley to bring in a fourth field player sub.

    **when MLS went to the traditional time-keeping in 2000, they also added a 10 minute (2 5 minute halves) Golden Goal overtime. Gaven's controversial game-winner came in overtime.

    ***hard to believe now, DC United fans invented Seattle Sounders fans. In the early years if DC United did something it was epic and pre-ordained. If something bad happened to DC United (especially if it involved the Metros), then the fix was in, or rules needed to be changed to prevent it from happening again.
     
  7. FoxBoro 143

    FoxBoro 143 Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    MA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's hard to believe DCU was once a good franchise. I hope LAG has the same post Bruce fortune DCU had.
     
  8. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    They're off to a rousing start!
     
  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There was a website that doesn't exist anymore with a formula for when a game is effectively over. I don't remember the formula, but it included who had the ball. I think your formula is too simple. Your formula thinks being up 15 with 1 minute left (a difference of 14) is worse than being up 26 with 10 minutes left (a difference of 16). Both are big leads, but I'd rather the first possibility. Especially at the end, a formula needs to work with seconds, not just minutes. I also think a formula should not be linear because a lead of x points becomes more safe as the game gets later. If you're just trying to determine if a game is effectively over with "yes" and "no" as the only two possibilities, your formula will work almost every time, but other formulas could do that also. What would make a formula more impressive is if it could give a probability of coming back based on the score difference and time left.
     
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  10. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    No, it doesn't. It just has to work. The whole point of a real-time guide like mine is to be as simple as possible.

    Bill James (the father of modern SABRmetrics) has some convoluted formula for basketball games. Which is fine - because he enjoys doing the math in his head. I'm a former math prodigy, but I'm also a trained mathematician - which means I am inherently lazy as shit - so whole number minutes plus 15 works. It's simple.

    I'm not trying to overly parse things or win a trophy for being the closest without going over, just looking for a reasonable guide to when I can relax and stop worrying about the result.

    If the game has less than a minute to go, the game will be over soon enough.
     
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  11. The Franchise

    The Franchise Member+

    Nov 13, 2014
    Bakersfield, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A friend of mine who is an economics professor believes there is no compliment greater than 'lazy.'
     
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  12. FoxBoro 143

    FoxBoro 143 Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    MA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yup
     
  13. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Yep. The genesis of great advancements in mathematics and computer science have their genesis in the desire to increase efficiency.
     
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  14. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have my new explanation!

    "Honey, I'm not being lazy, I'm just increasing my efficiency."
     
  15. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Speaking for the computer science side of things, an insane number of tools and applications have come about because someone said, "This is slow, error-prone drudgery. Let's make the computer do it." Hell, I get paid to work on an application that lets people do complex data analysis by moving icons around on a screen.
     
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  16. Ismitje

    Ismitje Super Moderator

    Dec 30, 2000
    The Palouse
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've watched basketball before, and I don't think this is necessarily true. ;)
     
  17. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    If one team has a 15 point lead it usually is. :p
     
  18. zman31

    zman31 Member+

    May 5, 1999
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And the closer it is, the longer it takes.
     
  19. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  20. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Apparently nothing if Alexi Lalas is to be believed. Somehow the offense is defined and the punishment is not. Seems absurd.
     
  21. soundermiki

    soundermiki Member+

    May 24, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    About four more minutes for Orlando, New England, Philly and Montreal.

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    On the positive side, ORL, PHI, NER, and MTL are no longer toast!

    Eliminated, sure.

    But not toast.
     
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  23. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... The Disappointing Ticos Update ...

    1Conferences.png 2Combined.png 3Misc.png 4TablesKey.png
    5Schedule.png

    Notes

    There were only three games today, so there are only three notes:

    1. With NYR's win, MTL, NER, PHI, and ORL have all been eliminated from playoff contention. Hence, with two weeks to spare, the EC is settled aside from seeding, and -- again -- this thread properly does not give a damn about seeding.

    2. FCD managed a points, which keeps RSL below the playoff line. Had FCD lost their game, they would have dropped to 8th place. (COL gets one point. This is good news for LAG's WS hopes.)

    3. SKC drew MIN. Nobody cared.

    Quick Hits

    Damn it, Costa Rica! Couldn't you have beaten Honduras? That would have made things so much easier. Now we actually have to beat T&T.
     
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  24. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You really think Panama is beating the Ticos by 8 or Honduras is beating El Tri by 12 (the results that would be necessary to pass us if we only tie T&T)?
     
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  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    The Law of Toast is in peril and I take nothing for granted!
     
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