The 2016 Standings: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers, and Standing on the Shoulders of Others

I figure a team with AD# between 2 and 3 could still go on a five or six game tear and save themselves. Not likely, could happen, seen it happen in the past. At AD of 3, you could win all your remaining games but still need help - and that's when we start reaching for the bread box.

Besides, the quality of toast in USL is not nearly that of MLS.

 

Fair enough, didn't mean to offend. Changes may be made next week. Or not. Kinda depends on what the proto-toastees do.

I wargamed Portland winning both matches and it brought their AD# sub-2. Of course they have to win @SLC and @SAC; if they do that, then their salvation from proto-toastiness is well-earned indeed. It will also have us SRFC fans crapping purple twinkies.

This would be a very good week for Tulsa to find their form again.

 

Eh. Toast is toast, I suppose. I'm just having a tough time with the mandatory 2.0 cutoff for the AD# to declare Toastiness.

Consider STL, who's sitting at a 1.99 AD#. Given the normal 2.0 standard, we'd be getting the Toastmaster ready and preparing to commute their soul. However, STL is only 2 points off the red line, 3 points off the seventh place team with a game in hand. So while very nearly teetering on toast status, they're also very much in the thick of things.

We could conceivably see a remarkable resurrection over in the EC with Harrisburg, who's currently sitting on a AD of 3.55, but their RSOS jumps off the page at 1.10. Of their remaining six games, five of them are against BET, WIL, TOR, PGH and MON - if ever there was a team that could go Lazarus, the Islanders are the team perfectly positioned to do so.

Now which one of you sunzabitches pulled the batteries out of my smoke detectors?

 

That makes sense. Being a skeptic, I've been ordering the tables on actual points earned rather than PPM, and I'm pulling the number out via an Excel lookup function.

Does having teams with one or more games in hand warp your calculations when you're still more than 5 games out from the end of the season?

 

Prepare for some serious toastiness in the next set of tables.

 

Week 22 Update:

With thanks to the Toastmaster General, we get additional entries on the crispiness of the western conference, adjustments to the actual despair number, and a welcome sight at the top of the WC table.

First, the scores for the WC on the week...

Wednesday: AZU 2 @ SAN 3, POR 1 @SLC 2
Thursday: RGV 5 @ TUL 0
Saturday: SEA 0 @ SAN 1, OKC 2 @ TUL 0, LA2 0@ OCB 2, POR 0 @ SAC 4
Sunday: RGV 2 @ COS 0, AZU 1 @ VAN 3, STL 1 @ SPR 1

Winner of the week: RGV Toros. The Toros had a damn fine week, and are on a damn fine roll, having gotten themselves into a solid third place in the table after spending most of the season scrambling around above and below the red line. In their last seven, they are either scorelessly tying or kicking the crap out of people (4-0 vs VAN, 6-0 vs SEA, 5-0 @ TUL, 2-0 @ COS today). The last goal RGV has given up was on June 26th in a 2-1 loss to OCB.

Loser of the week: LA Galaxy II, who lost to OCB this week on top of a scoreless tie at OKC, and the Galaxy have tumbled down into 6th place in the table. Something bad's in the water down at the Stubbie (I know, so many tears to be shed at that prospect), and LA2 has picked a very bad time to go 0-3-1 in their last four when everybody else at the top of the table seems to be maintaining or improving their form. Honorable mention goes to Portland, who had an opportunity to launch themselves out of the toaster, but instead lost both their matches this week and join Tulsa and Seattle in their official designation as toast.

To the tables!!!



That's right, folks, that's Sacramento up on the top of the table in the west, and even at the tippy top based on the GD tiebreaker. I'm not sure, but I think that's the latest week that SRFC's ever been at the top of the table. And as we see, utilizing the proper AD# calculation provided by Knave, Seattle and Portland are now officially toast, and SLC and St. Louis also join in the brown toasty goodness. Yes, SLC and STL are only two points off the red line, but San Antonio is there with a game in hand and two non-toast teams for them to vault. Things aren't hopeless for either SLC or STL, but they are both running out of matches in which to make a move.



In the east, I thought we'd have an elimination this week, but then a funny thing happened on the way to the chopping block - Montreal started winning games and Orlando forgot how. Everybody below the red line in the east is still officially toast, but Wilmington still has some matches left to get themselves right, and Harrisburg still has the lowest RSOS in the league right now and did take care of business during the week.




And lookie here, folks - we've got a new contestant for the Wooden Spoon, as FC Montreal has indeed all of a sudden figured out how to score goals and win games. It's not a definite thing yet, and Montreal does have a marginally tougher schedule than the Riverhounds, and the 'Hounds do have a game in hand. With that said, Tulsa had better get on point, otherwise the Roughnecks may get the full-on Wooden Spoon for reals.

Coming up next week in the West in Week #23:

Wednesday: OKC @ COS, SAC @ OCB
Saturday: LA2 @ SPR, COS @ RGV, SAN @ STL, TUL @ OKC, SLC @ AZU, VAN @ SAC

There's some games in mid-week next week that are technically part of week #23, but we'll lump them in with week #24's results.

Until next time!

 

The only way that game could become more Yallopian is if AZU's goal came as the result of a Vancouver own goal.

 

No midweek table, but SRFC is now at least one point clear of all other teams if all the others had optimal results for their games in hand, except for one - that being OKC. If OKC were to win both their games in hand on us (and they probably will since I think they're both against Tulsa), then the Energy can pull level with us on points, but we still have the GW tiebreak in our pocket.

One other unique thing happened - with OCB losing last night, the AD# changed for both SLC and STL, making them "technically" below the 2.00 AD# level and therefore not toast.

However, once a team is declared toast, the only way to untoast themselves is to actually pull above the Red Line. STL and SLC both have games, and if they lose their AD# goes right back above 2.00, and the discussion is moot.

Besides, I don't like second-hand toast.

 

Results from Week #23: Our First Elimination!!!

That's right, my friends - we have our first elimination from playoff contention...and it ain't in the east, either. Congratulations to the Tulsa Roughnecks, who based on their loss (for the umpteenth time) to OKC paired with a SAN victory at STL put the 'Necks officially out of reach of eighth place.

WC results on the week:

Wednesday: OKC 0 @ COS 2, SAC 1 @ OCB 0
Saturday: LA2 1 @ SPR 2, COS 1 @ RGV 2, SAN 2 @ STL 0, TUL 0 @ OKC 1, SLC 1 @ AZU 0, VAN 0 @ SAC 0

Winner of the Week: RGV Toros. The Little Team That Could is putting all kinds of heat on the west of the WC right now. At least those guys gave up a goal this week.

Loser of the Week: Tulsa. Any time you are officially bounced from the playoffs, you are by definition the loser of the week.

Honorable Mention goes to LA2, who continue their tumble down the table, and are now only three points clear of the Spork Rangers with an equivalent number of games remaining.

Honorable Mention also goes to Arizona United, who have now officially crossed the Tropic of Toast. Sometimes it's not whether or not you lose, but to whom you lose that counts, and this week's loss at home to fellow toastee SLC puts a uniquely Yallopian signature on AZU's playoff prospects. Yes, they're mathematically in it, but they'll need some help to get there and they'll need to score a hell of a lot of goals to do it. Anybody who has ever been a fan of the San Jose Earthquakes can tell you how that story ends.

To the tables!!!



Tulsa: You ded. Finished. Done. Finito. Fahrblunged. Fahrcacked. Only surprise is that Tulsa's the first to go, but there's a reason for that, as we'll see below:



Jesus Christ, Orlando. You're sitting square on the bubble for three weeks now, and your response to this is to go L-L-T-L ???. Your ineptitude has allowed Harrisburg, Bethlehem and Wilmington to cling to tiny shards of hope for way past the time they all should have been declared D-E-D dead. Well, if nothing else, RIC and CIN and CHA and ROC and CLT all officially punched their tickets for the post-season.

Next up on the elimination chopping block is probably TFC-2, with Montreal and Pittsburgh soon to follow. Of course, that depends on Orlando managing to scavenge a point here or there. Seeing as their next three games are against PGH, at WIL and at TOR, if they fail to eliminate those teams behind them, then they have only themselves to blame - and us to laugh at them.



As we see from the combined table, Tulsa is making a strong case for the Spoon of late, and they are now formally in position to take that worthy honor. Barring a complete collapse, it appears that the Pink Calves will win Home Field Advantage throughout the playoffs. I took a moment and computed the SOS of games played thus far, and NY2's 1.301 is below that of every other team in the WC. So that got me to thinking about the unbalanced schedule in the WC, and to do a graphic of who's played whom in the WC...



Dang. Would have been nice to have four matches with Tulsa this year, yes? The unbalnced schedule cuts down on travel costs, and it also now officially sucks balls.

Coming up next week:
Monday: POR @ SEA
Wednesday: OKC @ STL, SAN @ SPR, LA2 @ AZU
Friday: VAN @ SEA
Saturday: RGV @ SPR, LA2 @ COS, TUL @ SLC, OCB @ SAC
Sunday: AZU @ SAN, OKC @ POR

Until Next Time!!!

 

By hand from the USL standings and scores page. I have one mongo Excel sheet with the data thus far, and when teams play matches I move the individual teams from the "scheduled" tab to the "played" tab to recompute SOS figures.

I have decided that VLOOKUP is my very best friend in the whole wide world.

 

Monday:
POR 1 @ SEA 2. Great big gobs of meh. Portland's not eliminated, and Seattle's just slightly less craptastic.

Wednesday:
OKC 1 @ STL 1 - Huzzah! OKC wastes one of its games in hand on the good guys
SAN 1 @ SPR 2 - Spork Rangers are now in 7th, SAN drops to 9th
LA2 2 @ AZU 1 - Drat. AZU's now more toasty, and LA can get back in the top half with a win at COS

What we want:
Friday:
VAN @ SEA - Seattle victory (ick)

Saturday:
RGV @ SPR - Go Spork Rangers
LA2 @ COS - Scoreless tie
TUL @ SLC - Eh.
OCB @ SAC - Kinda obvious.

Sunday:
AZU @ SAN - Eh.
OKC @ POR - Portland should try real hard to not be like Tulsa.