East Holy hell is TFC serious!? They're pretty much locked up into the 3rd spot now and will be hosting a play-in game. Which, at this rate, I think they might lose NYRB to win the East. Don't be shocked if Pareja gets passed over for COTY (which he shouldn't) for Marsh. Marsh has done a hell of a job up there given how doom and gloom many had that situation. NYCFC success and Orlando sucking make me start to think Kreis had a good thing here he just can't replicate. I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see Montreal, currently 4th, not in the playoffs. Those last 3 spots are insanely tight and NER should max out on points so who knows. Prediction: NYRB (55), NYCFC (54), TFC (52), DCU (49), MTL (47), PHI (46), NER (46) West Dallas has one hell of a schedule to finish the season. I think they continue to impress, which means come playoffs they are the team to beat. My money is on them taking the treble. The only team that I see that could mess that up is the cRapids. Their schedule isn't ridiculously easy, but it's quite favorable if they find form. I wouldn't be surprised to see them take 8 or 9 points and really put the pressure on FCD. LA: Go Texas! RSL: The game vs FuKC is for playoff life at this point. Pretty much a must win if we want any chance at hosting. And honestly, even a win there doesn't lock that up. Also, we are now the biggest Houston fans in the league. We REALLY need those guys to help us out. Seattle: Go Texas! FuKC seems to want it more (less) than we want it more (less). I see them playing SJ for a playoff spot while Portland is in Vancouver trying to get it if they drop the points. Prediction: FCD (60), COL (59), SEA (50), LAG (49), RSL (48), SKC (46)
Remember when we were talking about RSL positioning themselves to take a CCL spot given FCD is going to win a lot? h aha ha ha ha ha ha ha we tempted the soccer gods and they gave us a big ******** you
FC Dallas Home 1 point, maybe WRONG but more tough games to come. Colorado Home 0 WRONG AGAIN. What is going on here? Can LA kill that funny feeling of positivity? EMBRATSU? LA Home 1 point, maybe Well, more right than wrong. Best point of the season. F&$k LA. Portland away 0 Well I got one right. Crap. 7 points so far with a guess of 9 or 10 points to finish the last 9 games of the season. They could still crap the bed but I hope not. Houston Home 3 points a must Wow, way wrong here. That one will leave a mark. FC Dallas Home 1 point, maybe Hey, got one right. 8 points so far with 3 to go. A couple of ties and a loss and I've nailed my guess for points to end the season. Should be interesting. Quakes away 1 point Missed another one. SKC Home 3 Seattle away 0 So sadly, I am sitting on 8 points when I guessed that RSL would finish with 9-10 points in the last 8 games. I thought they were going to proof me very wrong after the Dallas and Colorado game but they're working hard to meet my expectations. Thank goodness the rest of the west is stinking it up right now, I guess?
Kreis hasn't been at OC long enough to really say; but I'm inclined to agree with you. He and Garth were able to bring in some talented, gritty players who fit his personality. But, if you recall they were not having success until injuries and what-not made him experiment with a new formation. It was the combination of Kreis-like players, the diamond, a great GK, and a genius playmaker to run the diamond that made it work.
That's why I thought that with Kaka on the team, he could really get things ticking. Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen this year, but next.
Can I lock this thread now? Just kidding. Raise expectations by lowering your goals is the plan now. Can we make it to the playoffs, followed by can we escape the play -in game? Etc
The turnaround in Seattle since firing Schmid has been spectacular to say the least, they are 7-1-3 (WLT) despite losing Dempsey (but gaining Lodero). Given their run of form right now I would have to consider them favorites for MLS Cup. I think it'll come down to FCD and Seattle in the West and NYRB and perhaps DC in the East. The SKC game will determine our destiny, if we win then we fight Seattle for 4th, if we tie or lose we probably end up 6th. I just can't see Portland getting 2 wins, but they are so bipolar it's crazy, they could go gangbusters against Colorado and then totally shit the bed against Vancouver. I think it's likely that Portland beats Colorado, but loses to Vancouver on the road; I think it's likely we tie SKC and then SKC beats SJ at home; Seattle beats Houston at home, ties FCD on the road, then beats RSL at home; RSL ties SKC and loses to Seattle on the road. That would leave us with: SEA - 51 points SKC - 47 points RSL - 46 points POR - 44 points The question is what happens with FCD, COL, and LAG? FCD has a tough final 2 games, COL has a fairly manageable final 4 games, and LA with a moderate 2 final games. Do the cRapids find a run of form and overtake FCD with their games in hand? Does FCD take care of business against a hot Seattle at home and then find a result in LA? Does LA find a win in Houston and at home against FCD to stay ahead of Seattle? If it plays out like that then RSL finishes 12-11-10 with a negative GD and one third of our wins coming in the first 6 games of the season. Imagine that, we win 5 of our first 7 games and then go on to win only 7 of our next 27 games, brutal stuff.
Man, I was all fat, dumb and happy until you came along. I hate it when people hard my buzz with facts and statistics.
I am pulling for Houston to pull into the final spot. How improbable is that? They were written off weeks (months) ago, but are still mathematically in the playoff hunt. Of course, they have to have lots of help. Such as RSL beating SKC....I am torn on this, but since it appears Cassar is coming back next year does it really matter if RSL makes it or not? I was hoping RSL would tank and miss the playoffs, but if Cassar is getting offered an extension anyway, I would like to see Houston make a run and shock everyone.
That would indeed be shocking. Sports Club Stats runs tens of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations, and estimates Houston's chances as 0.0%, and would still be 0.0% with a win tomorrow. They don't go past tenths, but that's over 2000 failed simulations per success.
10/17 Update * = clinched playoff spot Eastern Conference *1. NYRB. 54pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Road 10/23 at PHI *2. NYCFC. 51pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs CLB *3. TFC. 50pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs CHI *4. DCU. 46pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Road 10/23 at ORL *5. MTL. 45pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Road 10/23 at NER 6. PHI. 42pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs NYRB 7. NER. 39pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs MTL Western Conference *1. FCD. 59pts. 33GP. 2GR/1MLS. 1 Road 10/20 at CD Suchitepequez (CCL) 10/23 at LAG *2. COL. 57pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs HOU *3. LAG. 51pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs FCD 4. RSL. 46pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Road 10/23 at SEA 5. SEA. 45pts. 33GP. 1GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/23 vs RSL 6. SKC. 44pts. 33GP. 2GR/1MLS. 1 Home 10/19 vs Central FC (CCL) 10/23 vs SJ 7. POR. 44pts. 33GP. 2GR/1MLS. 1 Road 10/19 vs Saprissa (CCL) 10/23 at VAN Overall Standings *FC Dallas *cRapids *NYRB *NYCFC *LAG *TFC RSL *DCU Seattle *Montreal FuKC Portland Philly NER SJE Orlando Vancouver Columbus Houston Chicago
Unfortunately for us Portland has to win their CCL game to advance so they are going to put out their first choice lineup and play all out. Also unfortunate for us is that Portland hasn't won an away game all year and they get to travel to Vancouver 4 days after their CCL match. Seattle needs a win this weekend to guarantee their spot and they'll be going all out against us and KC gets a shit SJ team at home, odds are we see a Seattle Win and a KC win with a Portland draw or loss which means RSL drops to 6th and finds itself in the knockout game on the road somewhere. We'll lose the knockout round, but the team will tout this amazing progress by getting back to the playoffs despite being all of 4 points better than last year and nearly identical in all meaningful stats. We'll keep Cassar around and continue to be a mediocre club for the foreseeable future.
RSL should consider moving to the eastern conference. Then their metric of success, making the playoffs, would be even lower and Cassar would be a completely fine choice of head coach forever... What is that? We can't just switch conferences. Oh well... Just to make myself clear I think making the playoffs should always be expected but isn't IMO a good metric for deciding the success of the team.
FC Dallas Home 1 point, maybe WRONG but more tough games to come. Colorado Home 0 WRONG AGAIN. What is going on here? Can LA kill that funny feeling of positivity? EMBRATSU? LA Home 1 point, maybe Well, more right than wrong. Best point of the season. F&$k LA. Portland away 0 Well I got one right. Crap. 7 points so far with a guess of 9 or 10 points to finish the last 9 games of the season. They could still crap the bed but I hope not. Houston Home 3 points a must Wow, way wrong here. That one will leave a mark. FC Dallas Home 1 point, maybe Hey, got one right. 8 points so far with 3 to go. A couple of ties and a loss and I've nailed my guess for points to end the season. Should be interesting. Quakes away 1 point Missed another one. SKC Home 3 Missed another one. This is what you would call crapping the bed. Seattle away 0 So sadly, STILL sitting on 8 points with one game to go when I guessed that RSL would finish with 9-10 points in the last 9 games. If the game goes as I predicted, RSL will finish the last 9 games with 8 points. That's how you finish off a season and hopefully a coach. MEH!
Who knows... Maybe the overwhelmingly disappointed public response to the news of a planned contract extension and a bad end to the season will be enough to finish Cassar, even if Portland doesn't get this win.
If only DLH were as willing to abandon his guy as Utah's voters this year. (Which, speaking from a distance, is hilarious.)
not to get political, but bullshit. this state is voting red. Which I vehemently oppose, but I've lived here long enough to know better soccer post: like politics, there are a bunch of teams vying for the last few playoff spots in the west. Outside Seattle (and even they are a stretch) do any of those four really deserve to be in? We've all played like shit