The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 25, 2011.

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  1. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    Are you putting blinders on and ignoring what is going on for the pure sake of extolling the virtue of your tragic numbers? Sure, a 2.5 PPG pace is not only hard but extremely unlikely, especially if you're looking at a team to have to keep that pace over a 10 game span. Yet once you're down to a mere four games all bets are off. If the Fire win the next 2 they will be in control of their destiny, finishing against DC and Columbus. Taking them seriously at that point will be kind of missing the signs that are present now. They play 3 teams fighting for the playoffs in those last 4 games: Houston, DC and Columbus. Whether you like it or not they are now in the playoff race, they may lose the next 2 and be out of it - but so can Columbus.
     
  2. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    Oh, boy! I've upset somebody!

    Am I ignoring what's going on? Let me tell you exactly what's going on.

    What's going on is that CHI have won 3 in a row. They have 4 games left. I'm thinking CHI need around 2.25 PPG in their remaining games. That means 3 wins and 1 draw, though 3 wins and 1 loss might also do OK.

    I think the despair numbers have proven decent measures for gauging how difficult it will be for a team to make the playoffs. Do they account for a crazy run? They're not supposed to.
    "If the Fire win the next 2" is the critical phrase here.
    This has nothing to do with what I like or don't like. I just don't see it happening because the mountain is still too steep. Barring something really unexpected (CHI winning 3 of its remaining 4 would be unexpected), CHI is toast. I'm not going to blow smoke and tell you otherwise.
     
  3. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    "You must spread some reputation around..."
     
  4. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    But give it to Sachsen. He caught the error, not me.
     
  5. Balerion

    Balerion Member+

    Aug 5, 2006
    Roslindale, MA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    FWIW, the Fire have been on a 2.57 PPG in their last seven games.

    If they beat Houston, I think it's time to take them seriously.
     
  6. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    I have finally found your logical fallacy, according to you Chicago needs to win the next 2 games to no longer be toast (I believe "taken seriously" would no longer mean "toast"), but since we ALL know you can't untoast toast (physics/chemistry experts please chime in here, and time travel is not an option) then they can't be toast at the present. I think the only way for you to save face it to alter your analogy.
     
  7. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    You can untoast toast if you butter it, then tie it buttered-face-up onto the back of your cat. Push your cat off the counter, and the space-time rift that opens up while mother nature cannot decide which face should land on the floor will generate enough energy to return your bread to its uncooked state.

    Knave's analogy is safe.
     
  8. FlashMan

    FlashMan Member

    Jan 6, 2000
    'diego
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    One problem for Klopas is the Open Cup final game on Tuesday. Klopas has already stated that because of that game he will have to rest a number of his regulars v. Houston on Saturday. Now that they've beaten RSL, I wonder if he'll stick to his guns re this plan, but that's what he was quoted as saying in one of those mlssoccer.com articles, I think on Monday. Houston at home is already a tough proposition, and playing a lot of reserves will make it even tougher.
     
  9. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    The Buttered Cat Paradox can only produce an anti-gravity effect, common knowledge.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    Anti-gravity doesn't require an immense generation of anti-laws-of-physics energy? Energy that could have other unintended, anti-physics consequences?

    C'mon, follow the logic. Otherwise, I wanna see the lab reports before I rely on common knowledge :)
     
  11. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    Let me say a bit more about CHI. To me they look almost exactly like FCD in 2009. The graph is a bit strange because I had to compare a 30 game season to a 34 game season (hence the % Season Completed), but it shows pretty clearly how these teams compare. CHI is in the exact position as was FCD at the same point in the season in 2009.

    [​IMG]

    (Click here for the full size image.)

    FCD made a great run in 2009. We all still remember it because it was so incredible. What we may forget, however, is that FCD failed to make the playoffs that year. They came close, but the cutoff turned out to be 1.33 PPG, and FCD ended the year at 1.30 PPG. I think CHI also need about 1.33 PPG for the year to make the playoffs. Does that mean CHI will fail to make the playoffs this year? Let's just say it would be unexpected and unprecedented.

    Meanwhile, I'm off to the kitchen to conduct some very important research involving toast, cats and butter!
     
  12. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    They lost the last game in '09 right? They would have made the playoffs if they won that game. If the Fire get to that point it will be even more improbable then what Dallas did based on your graph.
     
  13. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    FCD needed a win to make the playoffs. They lost.
     
  14. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    NH
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    To follow up on this: I worked out the scenario using the same parameters as BHTC Mike set out for Toronto, and it looks like the Revs are still technically in the race.

    NE beat DC twice, drew and lost to NY for 7 points.
    NY split with DC, drew and beat NE for 7 points.
    DC lost to NE twice, and split with NY for 3 points.

    So NE and NY are tied, and it goes to goal differential, and despite the current 20 goal gap between them, NE could still theoretically match or beat NY on GD, so NE is still technically alive.
     
  15. dark knight

    dark knight Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 15, 1999
    Club:
    New York City FC
    Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    But can we call them toast?
     
  16. YilmazOrhan

    YilmazOrhan Well Brian, I hit it first time...

    Jun 18, 2006
    Suburbia, Kansas
    Club:
    Kansas City Wizards
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Barring some sort of miraculous scoring explosion from Columbus in their last two games, SKC locks up a playoff spot this weekend if these things happen:

    SKC beats SJE to get to 47 points
    DCU beats CMB, leaving them with a MPP of 47
    VAN draws POR, leaving them with a MPP of 47
    HOU draws CHI, leaving them with a MPP or 46

    In the case of a 3-way tie for 10th place at 47, the season played out like this: (w-d-l=pts)

    SKC 3-0-1=9
    CMB 2-0-2=6
    POR 1-0-3=4

    This eliminates Portland. SKC and CMB split their series, so we move on to Goal Differential. As of this morning, SKC has a GD of 7, while CMB's is -4. The above scenario will only make the gap larger.

    Whew. Assuming this is right, I'm glad to finally find a scenario that effectively locks SKC in the playoffs, I was beginning to think one would never emerge.....
     
  17. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    NH
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    I think we can call them "in the toaster".

    And Yilmaz, SKC advances in your scenario due to having the most points in that H2H match up with Columbus and Portland. You don't have to re-do the H2H with just SKC and Columbus.
     
  18. YilmazOrhan

    YilmazOrhan Well Brian, I hit it first time...

    Jun 18, 2006
    Suburbia, Kansas
    Club:
    Kansas City Wizards
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    You are right, but it also shows that SKC effectively holds the tiebreak over CMB if Portland isn't involved. Because Vancouver could have a late-season new-building surge and win that game. Theoretically.
     
  19. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    I don't think this is correct. In multi-way tiebreakers, I don't think that teams are "dropped off the bottom."
     
  20. YilmazOrhan

    YilmazOrhan Well Brian, I hit it first time...

    Jun 18, 2006
    Suburbia, Kansas
    Club:
    Kansas City Wizards
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You are right. I was trying to kill two explanatory birds with one stone, and got ahead of myself. SKC advances out of the 3-way tiebreak. SKC also wins the head-to-head with Columbus, providing CMB doesn't score about 13 more goals than SKC over their last two games.
     
  21. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, if the correction to my earlier incorrect thought process was accurate, SKC would advance on the three way H2H, then Columbus and Portland would go through the process again. In that case, they tie on the first tiebreaker as they are both 1W-0D-1L in H2H. The second tiebreaker is GD in all games, and Columbus is currently leading -4 to Portland's -7...
     
  22. YilmazOrhan

    YilmazOrhan Well Brian, I hit it first time...

    Jun 18, 2006
    Suburbia, Kansas
    Club:
    Kansas City Wizards
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, but in my hypothetical situation, they'd be duking it out for 11th place.....
     
  23. bgix

    bgix Bad Penny

    Jun 29, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think the bunching of the Eastern teams, coupled with their poor records relative to the West creates one of those situations where treating the league as a single table with regards to Knave's "Despair" numbers doesn't work as expected. The chances of the Western teams to make the playoffs via the Wildcards I think is pretty accurate, but since the Eastern conference Top-3 remain largely "in play", that Chicago's chances are being a little understated.

    If Chicago wins this weekend, I think they are untoasted, especially when the top Eastern teams keep beating each other up. If I was Chicago, I would continue to go all out to make the playoffs, and save the starting XI by fielding a reserve squad for the USOC final.
     
  24. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not that you're biased or anything. ;)

    USOC Final is an easy path to CCL and will soften the blow of them not making the playoffs, if that comes to pass.
     
  25. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unless there is a realistic scenario where the 8th-place team in the West can get into the leaguewide top 10 (this would require both Chivas USA and San Jose to get to the top 10), it's perfectly fine to look at the single table when analyzing playoff qualification (though not when analyzing seeding).
     

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