The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 25, 2011.

Tags:
  1. BHTC Mike

    BHTC Mike Member+

    Apr 12, 2006
    Burlington, ON
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I'm looking for available scenarios but I'm pretty sure the looming loss tonight v. Chivas officially eliminates TFC.

    TFC's MPP would drop to 39 and while they could technically gain back the tie break with NY (with a 6 goal victory :rolleyes:) DC still has to play Portland. Either one of them will go above 39 points with that game or a draw will see DC at 39 and I don't see any tiebreak scenario that TFC wins with DC and NY (or even DC, NY, and Portland). Unless the crazy "drop the lowest team" and reapply the tiebreakers rule applies.
     
  2. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    What about tiebreakers with other lower table teams? And the multi-way tiebreakers?

    They'll be on a T# of 1, which is where tiebreakers come in. But I wouldn't encourage anyone to look too deeply into this one.
     
  3. dark knight

    dark knight Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 15, 1999
    Club:
    Leicester City FC


    My comment was more generally about "easily seeing NY first" - but I admit it was made before I realized how closely bunched all the teams are. Even if RB was in first place I still couldn't easily see them in first place, but I can't believe Houston now has the most points?

    Still can't believe we gave you De Ro, but that's a subject for a different thread.
     
  4. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    I'm afraid to check back into this thread. I think Colorado's on pace for tenth now, just ahead of NY and just behind DC, but I really don't want to do the math and face that reality.
     
  5. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Na81CmcrhE"]Applejack - Is that a challenge? - YouTube[/ame]
     
  6. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    That makes two of us!

    It's so tightly bunched, that whether you're in 10th place or 5th place doesn't really matter. It's all up for grabs after today's results.
     
  7. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    I mean, we really don't need any 'crazy' results to finish first. We have a game in hand on Houston and can simply pass them outright. We are 2 points behind KC but still play them, so we can pass them. We are 2 points behind the crew, so would need them to lose really.

    We still play Philly, etc.

    It's unbelievably possible for the Red Bulls to end up first in the East, which shows how the whole conference has been slipping on banana peels for the last few weeks. It just seems like no one wants to take charge and lock up their playoff position.
     
  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... and then all Hell broke loose ...

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
    [COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  30  04  17  10  03  61  2.03  69  73  13  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    02  SEA  30  04  15  09  06  54  1.80  61  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    03  RSL  29  05  15  06  08  51  1.76  60  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    04  FCD  30  04  13  07  10  46  1.53  52  58  --  20  06  --  -.25  0.27  W
    05  PHI  29  05  09  13  07  40  1.38  47  55  --  17  12  --  1.00  1.41  E
    06  CMB  30  04  11  08  11  41  1.37  46  53  --  15  11  --  1.00  1.52  E
    07  SKC  30  04  10  11  09  41  1.37  46  53  --  15  11  --  1.00  1.52  E
    08  DCU  28  06  09  11  08  38  1.36  46  56  --  18  14  --  1.17  1.51  E
    09  COL  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  10  --  1.00  1.69  W
    10  HOU  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  10  --  1.00  1.69  E
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11  NYR  30  04  08  15  07  39  1.30  44  51  --  13  13  --  1.50  2.02  E
    12  POR  30  04  10  07  13  37  1.23  42  49  --  11  15  01  2.00  2.52  W
    13  CHV  31  03  08  11  12  35  1.13  38  44  --  06  17  03  ----  ----  W
    14  CHI  28  06  05  15  08  30  1.07  36  48  --  10  22  08  2.50  2.84  E
    15  SJE  30  04  06  13  11  31  1.03  35  43  --  05  21  07  ----  ----  W
    16  TFC  31  03  06  12  13  30  0.97  33  39  --  01  22  08  ----  ----  E
    17  NER  29  05  05  12  12  27  0.93  32  42  --  04  25  11  ----  ----  E
    [COLOR="Gray"]18  VAN  28  06  04  10  14  22  0.79  27  40  --  --  --  19  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    
    Current AD-Baseline: 47 
    
    Up 2 since the last update.
    Set by HOU’s 46 point, 1.35 PPG pace. [/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
    WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
    HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    
    - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
    - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
    - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]
    Asterisks

    Ain't none!

    Notes

    Good news, VAN! All your remaining home games in that newly upgraded and all nice and shiny BC Place -- they're all totally meaningless. You are the first MLS team of 2011 to be eliminated from playoff contention.

    The bottom did not fall out of the middle of the table. The level raised. The AD-Baseline (what you'd need to surpass the 10th place team) bumped up two points to 47. That's above the historical baseline, as reflected in the difference between the AD and HD numbers.

    There's virtually no separation between PHI in 5th place and NYR in 11th place. They're separated only by .08 PPG, and they're PRJ season totals are separated by only 3 points - one win either way.

    What happened? The lower middle got better (HOU, NYR and DCU all won), while the upper middle all lost or drew. The race in the East has blown wide open. PHI and CMB could miss the playoffs, NYR could win the East, and everything in between. The teams that needed results, got results. DCU and HOU got their needed wins and improved their positioning. NYR won and has now found itself in a surprisingly strong position. They're in 11th place on the current table, but they could easily rise into the top 10.

    On the other side, with its loss, POR has started to drop down into the realm of so much for 2011. They needed a draw to stay solid, and they didn't get it. This loss was probably the beginning of the end for POR's season.

    For COL, the draw was OK in the sense that it wasn't fatal and it kept them afloat. But considered along with all the other results and with the newly tight table, the draw to SJE was a real opportunity lost.

    Housekeeping

    Full update tomorrow.
     
  9. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I can come up with scenarios with up to 7 teams tied for 10th at 39 points, but I'm not going to try to figure out all of the tiebreakers.
     
  10. BHTC Mike

    BHTC Mike Member+

    Apr 12, 2006
    Burlington, ON
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    That's the thing. Eyeballing it there's not a single team that could be in any of those tiebreaker scenarios that TFC doubled. In fact, the only team they took 4 points off was Portland with the potential of taking 4 points off of New England with a win on the final day. So if TFC doesn't win a tiebreak between DC, NY (who they'd theoretically need to take 3 points off), and Portland (who they took 4 points off) it's really, really hard to see who you could add to the tiebreak that would help them. Again, I'm pretty sure TFC is formally done.
     
  11. Seaball

    Seaball Member+

    Oct 12, 2008
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Re: ... and then all Hell broke loose ...

    Looking at all the results from yesterday, that had to be a doomsday scenario for Portland.
     
  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... and then all Hell broke loose ...

    This is true. With despair numbers above 2.00 PPG, I usually pronounce teams toast. I'm pretty close to calling POR toast, but the general closeness of what's left of the playoff field made me hesitate. They could still squeak in if they win some games and some other teams have a poor run of form.

    But that really speaks to POR's lack of competition for a playoff spot. Right now they're actually only competing with NYR to break into the top 10.

    The playoff race is tight, but the field of competitive teams is quite small. Reality is, right now we're playing out the rest of this season to eliminate 2 teams. And one of those teams is already very close to practical elimination.
     
  13. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    New England's loss should have eliminated them from playoff contention, as their MPP is 39, which would tie them with #10 NY, but NY has the head-to-head tiebreaker (NY won the first matchup 2-1, and tied the second matchup 2-2).
     
  14. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
    [COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  30  04  17  10  03  61  2.03  69  73  13  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    02  SEA  30  04  15  09  06  54  1.80  61  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    03  RSL  29  05  15  06  08  51  1.76  60  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    04  FCD  30  04  13  07  10  46  1.53  52  58  --  20  06  --  -.25  0.27  W
    05  PHI  29  05  09  13  07  40  1.38  47  55  --  17  12  --  1.00  1.41  E
    06  CMB  30  04  11  08  11  41  1.37  46  53  --  15  11  --  1.00  1.52  E
    07  SKC  30  04  10  11  09  41  1.37  46  53  --  15  11  --  1.00  1.52  E
    08  DCU  28  06  09  11  08  38  1.36  46  56  --  18  14  --  1.17  1.51  E
    09  COL  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  10  --  1.00  1.69  W
    10  HOU  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  10  --  1.00  1.69  E
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11  NYR  30  04  08  15  07  39  1.30  44  51  --  13  13  --  1.50  2.02  E
    12  POR  30  04  10  07  13  37  1.23  42  49  --  11  15  01‡ 2.00  2.52  W
    13  CHI  29  05  06  15  08  33  1.14  39  48  --  10  19  05  2.40  2.81  E
    14  CHV  31  03  08  11  12  35  1.13  38  44  --  06  17  03  ----  ----  W
    15  SJE  30  04  06  13  11  31  1.03  35  43  --  05  21  07  ----  ----  W
    16  TFC  31  03  06  12  13  30  0.97  33  39  --  01‡ 22  08  ----  ----  E
    17  NER  30  04  05  12  13  27  0.90  31  39  --  01‡ 25  11  ----  ----  E
    [COLOR="Gray"]18  VAN  29  05  04  10  15  22  0.76  26  37  --  --  --  16  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    
    Current AD-Baseline: 47 
    
    Unchanged since last update.
    Set by HOU’s 46 point, 1.35 PPG pace. [/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
    WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
    HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    
    - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
    - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
    - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]
    Asterisks

    ‡ Is POR still eligible for the WS? Are TFC and NER eliminated from the playoffs? All of these questions concern tiebreakers, but there may be too many outstanding games between these teams to answer these questions (or at least to answer them easily). Want to look into it? Be my guest!

    Code:
    [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]
    
    [U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW  HD  HL  AW  AD  AL  PCE[/U]
    01  LAG  30  61  15  15  10  05  00  07  05  03  01
    02  SEA  30  54  15  15  08  04  03  07  05  03  -06
    03  RSL  29  51  15  14  10  03  02  05  03  06  -08
    04  FCD  30  46  16  14  08  03  05  05  04  05  -16
    05  DCU  28  38  14  14  04  07  03  05  04  05  -18
    06  PHI  29  40  15  14  06  08  01  03  05  06  -19
    07  SKC  30  41  15  15  07  06  02  03  05  07  -19
    08  COL  31  42  15  16  05  08  02  05  04  07  -19
    09  HOU  31  42  15  16  09  03  03  01  09  06  -19
    10  CMB  30  41  16  14  08  05  03  03  03  08  -21
    11  NYR  30  39  15  15  06  06  03  02  09  04  -21
    12  POR  30  37  16  14  09  03  04  01  04  09  -25
    13  CHI  29  33  15  14  05  08  02  01  07  06  -26
    14  CHV  31  35  15  16  05  04  06  03  07  06  -26
    15  SJE  30  31  15  15  04  07  04  02  06  07  -29
    16  NER  30  27  14  16  04  06  04  01  06  09  -31
    17  TFC  31  30  15  16  05  06  04  01  06  09  -31
    18  VAN  29  22  13  16  04  05  04  00  05  11  -33
    
    Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]
    
    [U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
    01  LAG  2.33    01  LAG  1.73
    02  RSL  2.20    02  SEA  1.73
    03  HOU  2.00    03  DCU  1.36
    04  POR  1.88    04  FCD  1.36
    05  SEA  1.87    05  RSL  1.29
    06  CMB  1.81    06  COL  1.19
    07  SKC  1.80    07  CHV  1.00
    08  PHI  1.73    08  PHI  1.00
    09  FCD  1.69    09  NYR  1.00
    10  NYR  1.60    10  SKC  0.93
    11  COL  1.53    11  CMB  0.86
    12  CHI  1.53    12  SJE  0.80
    13  TFC  1.40    13  HOU  0.75
    14  DCU  1.36    14  CHI  0.71
    15  VAN  1.31    15  NER  0.56
    16  NER  1.29    16  TFC  0.56
    17  SJE  1.27    17  POR  0.50
    18  CHV  1.27    18  VAN  0.31[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    [U]      WK29  WK30  WK31  WK32[/U]
    CHI:  @RSL  ----   FCD   CMB
          @HOU  ----  @DCU  ----
    CMB:  @SKC  ----  @NER  @CHI
           DCU  ----  ----  ----
    COL:   FCD  ----   RSL  @VAN
    CHV:   PHI  ----  @LAG   SEA
    DCU:  @PHI  ----  @VAN   POR
          @CMB  ----   CHI   SKC
    FCD:  @COL  ----  @CHI  @SJE
          ----  ----   VAN  ----
    HOU:   CHI  ----  @POR   LAG
    LAG:   RSL  @NYR   CHV  @HOU
    NER:   SEA   SJE   CMB  @TFC
    NYR:  @TFC   LAG  @SKC   PHI
    PHI:   DCU  @SEA   TFC  @NYR
          @CHV  ----  ----  ----
    POR:  @VAN  ----   HOU  @DCU
          ----  ----  ----  @RSL
    RSL:   CHI  @VAN  @COL   POR
          @LAG  ----  ----  ----
    SEA:  @NER   PHI   SJE  @CHV
    SJE:   SKC  @NER  @SEA   FCD
    SKC:   CMB  ----   NYR  @DCU
          @SJE  ----  ----  ----
    TFC:   NYR  ----  @PHI   NER
    VAN:   POR   RSL   DCU   COL
          ----  ----  @FCD  ---- [/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U]
    (Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance)
    
    01  CHV:  1.69
    02  CHI:  1.55
    03  CMB:  1.49
    04  NYR:  1.48
    06  LAG:  1.47
    07  HOU:  1.44
    05  POR:  1.40
    08  SJE:  1.36
    09  PHI:  1.33
    10  COL:  1.32
    11  RSL:  1.28
    12  VAN:  1.20
    13  NER:  1.20
    15  DCU:  1.17
    14  FCD:  1.16
    16  SKC:  1.12
    17  TFC:  1.10
    18  SEA:  1.09[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U]
    
    [URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL] [URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL]
    [URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL]
    [URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL]
    [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoffstandings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL]
    [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/competition-rules-and-regulations"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL]
    [URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] 
    
    Please suggest others.[/B]
    Notes

    Everything I stated in yesterday’s update still stands. Nothing changed with this last game. But I will add a couple of things.

    On the last update I said all Hell broke loose. And over the weekend it did. The table changed radically, and in some sense the playoff race broke wide open. What I said about NYR remains true: they could finish the season atop the Eastern Conference, or they could miss the playoffs entirely.

    But from another perspective, all Hell didn’t break loose. Just the opposite. Let me explain what I mean.

    We’ve got one month left in the MLS regular season. Four weeks. Three of those weeks are packed with games, the other one is a light week. That’s a lot of games. But the playoff race is arguably virtually over. The current top 10 teams, at worst, need around 1 point per game in their remaining games to all but assure playoff qualification. Right now there are only three teams in MLS doing worse than 1 point a game.

    Truth is, the playoff race could end for all practical purposes as early as next weekend. If TFC does well against NYR, and if VAN gets a result against POR, then (barring something truly crazy) the top 10 will be set. The top 10 may shuffle around amongst themselves (and something crazy may happen), but it’ll basically be over.

    But wait, you say, CHI won today. Aren’t they back in the running? No. They’ve got 5 games left. To get to 42 points they’d need to win 3 of them. 42 points is almost certainly not going to be enough. Are they going to win 4 out of their last 5? Doubtful? Are they going to win 3 and draw 2? Doubtful. (And 44 points might not be enough anyway.) CHI has a massive hill to climb to get themselves anywhere close to playoff viability. Until something crazy happens (they win another 3 games in a row), they are out of the playoff hunt. (And have you seen who CHI is playing? Second toughest schedule in the league!)

    What about POR? They’ve got 4 games left and a pretty average schedule. Aren’t they still in the running? Only barely. To get to 45 points, a level at which you’re almost certainly playoff viable, they’d need another 8 points. That’s 2 points per game: at least 2 wins, 2 draws. Yes, stranger things have happened. So maybe they’ll go on a run. But that’s what it’s going to take: a really strange strong run of games. And there’s no room for error, especially considering the fact that for the moment the 10th place team is exceeding a 45 point pace.

    That leaves NYR. Assuming the AD-Baseline notches down a point or two (I think it will), they’re still in the position of having some say over their own destiny. But it wouldn’t take much for their playoff hopes to slip away.

    All of this is assuming that HOU, COL, DCU and the other current top 10 teams don’t falter and fall way (way, way) off of their current pace. But even if that does happen with one or two teams, it won’t bring anyone other than maybe NYR and POR into the mix. And that’s assuming NYR and POR can hang in their long enough to take advantage of the opening.

    The fact that you can argue both that all Hell broke loose and that the playoffs are still wide open, and also that all Hell didn’t break loose and that the playoff race could be over quite soon, owes to two things: the table is incredibly tight and there aren’t many games left. So, yes, the playoff race is still in flux and there could yet be some real drama. But the window of opportunity is small and closing fast. If a team’s going to make a push, they’ve got no time to waste and no margin for error.

    Quick Hits

    CHV’s difficult schedule is terribly disappointing.

    SEA’s schedule is probably the only good reason not to hand the SS to LAG right now. But LAG would need to falter very badly (and LAG’s schedule isn’t that tough.)

    DCU is no longer better on the road than at home. With the win, their HPPG is even with their APPG.

    Every year the PCE numbers in MLS seem totally bizarre. Interesting, but bizarre. The only team that’s ever at or above PCE in MLS is LAG. For everyone else it’s just a relative measure. But it does indicate some interesting things. For instance, ranked by PCE DCU is 5th best in the league. That’s entirely a reflection of the team’s very strong away form.

    If anyone’s still keeping track, we’re looking at 2.58 GPG so far this year.
     
  15. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I looked into this briefly and concluded 1) I'm uncertain, and 2) I'm too tired to figure it out for certain. (I wimped out right after I wondered about multi-way scenarios.) Hence the note above inviting others to figure it out. Hopefully by the time I wake up tomorrow, somebody will have posted a definite answer. :D
     
  16. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    If the Revs win all their games, they can win tiebreakers vs the following 9 teams:

    CLB-COL-DAL-KC-SEA-DC-SJ-TOR-VAN

    However, they can't catch five of them: CLB-COL-DAL-KC-SEA, and then TOR-VAN can't catch them. SJ will have 31 pts with 3 games left, so it's impossible for them to get 8 and tie on 39.

    So the only multiple team tie is DC-NE-NY. You get the following records:

    Code:
    DC	1-3-0
    NE	2-1-1
    NY	2-1-1
    However, NE loses the head to head with NY so they can't win it.
     
  17. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Well, in that particular case, NE and NY would tie on step 1 of the tie-breaker, so they go to step 2, which is overall goal differential. NE's GD is -15 right now and NY's is +5, so it's very unlikely that NE would catch up, but it's still theoretically possible. The next tie-breaker would be goals for, which is NE 34 / NY 46. Again, extremely unlikely, but still theoretically possible.

    Just a reminder - if you have more than two teams tied on points, and one team loses out on any tie-breaker, you do not start again from step one with the remaining teams. You keep going through the remaining tie-breakers, dropping teams along the way, until you get one team to advance.
     
  18. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    really?

    Maybe I'm reading the NOTE below incorrectly, but it looks like teams "advance" from the tie-breaking procedures, and they don't "lose out."

    and "the tie breaker reverts to step 1" should/if/when "two clubs remain tied after another club with the same number of points advances during any step."

    http://www.mlssoccer.com/competition-rules-and-regulations

     
  19. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Maybe I mis-stated it. Let's look at what scaryice posted - DC, NE, and NY tied on 39 points. Results between those three teams

    Code:
    DC	1-3-0
    NE	2-1-1
    NY	2-1-1
    In this case, NE and NY are still tied after step 1. That means they are still tied in the standings, and DC is below them in the standings, so they "lose out" and don't advance to the next step in the tie-breaker. Then you go to step 2 for NE and NY, since they're still tied. Say NE wins it. NE ends up with the highest position of those three teams. Then you repeat the tie-breaker for NY / DC.

    Maybe putting it this way is clearer - you don't revert to step 1 in a tie-breaker until you have one team advance.

    Here's the post from last year's thread that goes over this: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?p=21896361#post21896361
     
  20. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Hmmm. I agree with GreatGonzo's interpretation. (Which is not really different than what tab5g is citing in the rules).

    Code:
    DC	1-3-0
    NE	2-1-1
    NY	2-1-1
    In this scenario, NE and NY are still tied after the first tie-breaker so you go to the 2nd tie-breaker, goal difference. You do not eliminate DC and then look at NE and NY head-to-head.
     
  21. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right, but once that team advances you take the remaining teams and start over again at Step 1. So in the hypothetical example of NY-NE-DC, if DC drops out at Step 1 and NY drops out at Step 2, NE advances but the tie between NY and DC is decided by going back to step 1 and determining which team wins based just on NY and DC's records.
     
  22. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
  23. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    GreatGonzo and tab5 are both saying the same thing. It was confusing only because GreatGonzo talks about "dropping teams along the way," which isn't exactly what he meant. This is how I'd portray a DCU-NYR-NER 39 point tiebreaker:
    Code:
    [B][U]     W-L-D  PTS  GD[/U]
    NER  2-1-1  7    TBA
    NYR  2-1-1  7    TBA
    DCU  1-3-0  3    TBA
    
    Final DCU ranking determined by PTS. 
    Final NER and NYR ranking cannot yet be determined. 
    The tiebreaker cannot be determined.[/B]
    You have to work through the tiebreakers, one after another, until you advance a winner. Once you advance a winner, the procedure resets and you start over at head-to-head with the remaining teams. But in this instance, because final GD is not yet known, you cannot advance a winner. It’s just too early to determine this one.

    GreatGonzo pointed to it above, I've mentioned it before, but I'll note it here again. I posted an example last year that shows exactly how this works. That example should answer most, if not all, of your questions about MLS's tiebreaking procedures.

    THE MLS TIEBREAKING PROCEDURE

    And Q*bert Jones III is right, but that's a rant for another day.

    Meanwhile, my devious plan to get a definite answer about NER worked! :D
     
  24. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not sure the last part is true. Since DCU is dropped in step 1, it is ranked below NY and NE and the process is not re-run to determine who is ranked higher between NY and DC because DC already lost the first tie breaker, which was the record between all three. Let's say all three are tied for spot 10. In the first tie breaker you'd end up with:

    Code:
    10. NE   2-1-1
    10. NY   2-1-1
    12. DC   1-3-0
    
    That leaves NE and NY to determine who gets spot 10 and if the record is NE 0-1-1 and NY is 1-1-0, then the final standings are:

    Code:
    10. NY
    11. NE
    12. DC
    
     
  25. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Well, it's sort of what I meant, but I phrased it poorly. I meant it in that you can "drop" teams going from step 1 to step 2 - like in this case, if DC had a GD higher than the other two teams, it would be irrelevant, since DC didn't have enough points in step 1. If the example cited here is for 10th place, all we'd know is that DC cannot be 10th. However, DC could still be 11th, since the tie-breaker would restart after one of NYR / NER advances.

    Yoshou, that's incorrect. Jason has it right. You never revert back to step 1 until you have just one team that has come out on top.

    I'm so sorry for starting this conversation up again. :p
     

Share This Page