The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Sep 13, 2010.

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  1. scheck

    scheck Member

    Mar 13, 2007
    Denver
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Country:
    United States
    Kansas city needs to win 4 of their last 5 barring major meltdowns by seattle or colorado. At new york it'll be a tough game, as will at home vs seattle and san jose.
     
  2. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    In doing the calculations did you make sure that all the teams ahead of KC that didn't end at 48 points actually were above that number. That'd be my only caveat. RSL might actually lose a 4-way tiebreaker, but if one of the intervening teams fails to get to 48 points due to games played against teams getting exactly to 48, then the point would be moot, and RSL would mathematically be qualified.
     
  3. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    We did it based on a specific situation where Seattle, KC, RSL, and Colorado all ended on 48 (which is possible). There may be other situations, but we figured we just had to check one.
     
  4. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I ought to post this before it becomes outdated tonight.
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U]
    
    Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = 
             Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG]
    
    RSL: 1.830
    PHI: 1.611
    FCD: 1.586
    KCW: 1.500
    NER: 1.409
    LAG: 1.405
    DCU: 1.375
    CHI: 1.348
    CDC: 1.309
    HOU: 1.296
    TFC: 1.277
    COL: 1.264
    CMB: 1.233
    SJE: 1.114
    SEA: 1.071
    NYR: 1.054[/B]
    For reference:
    Code:
    [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]
    
    [U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
    01  RSL  2.43    01  LAG  1.85
    02  CMB  2.15    02  FCD  1.54
    03  NYR  2.08    03  SJE  1.50
    04  COL  2.08    04  SEA  1.38
    05  LAG  2.00    05  NYR  1.36
    06  FCD  2.00    06  CMB  1.31
    07  SJE  1.75    07  RSL  1.17
    08  PHI  1.67    08  COL  1.00
    09  TFC  1.64    09  KCW  1.00
    10  SEA  1.62    10  CHI  0.92
    11  KCW  1.62    11  TFC  0.67
    12  NER  1.62    12  CDC  0.62
    13  CDC  1.42    13  HOU  0.62
    14  HOU  1.38    14  DCU  0.62
    15  CHI  1.25    15  PHI  0.54
    16  DCU  0.77    16  NER  0.38[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    [U]      WK27  WK28  WK29  WK30[/U]
    CDC:   LAG   TFC  @SEA   SJE
          ----  ----  ----   CHI
    CHI:  @SJE   CMB   KCW  @CDC
          @FCD  ----   DCU  ----
    CMB:   SJE  @CHI  @TFC   PHI
    COL:   PHI  @FCD  @LAG   RSL
           DCU  ----  ----  ----
    DCU:  @COL   SJE  @CHI   TFC
    FCD:   CHI   COL  @RSL  @LAG
    HOU:  @PHI   NER  @SJE   SEA
    KCW:  @NYR   SEA   CHI   SJE
          ----  ----  @NER  ----
    LAG:  @CDC  @PHI   COL   FCD
    NER:   RSL  @HOU   KCW  @NYR
    NYR:   KCW   RSL  @PHI   NER
    PHI:  @COL   LAG   NYR  @CMB
           HOU  ----  ----  ----
    RSL:  @NER  @NYR   FCD  @COL
    SEA:   TFC  @KCW   CDC  @HOU
    SJE:   CHI  @DCU   HOU   CDC
          @CMB  ----  ----  @KCW
    TFC:  @SEA  @CDC   CMB  @DCU[/B]
     
  5. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Here is one scenario:

    1. LAG = 50+ points
    2. CLB ( defeat two of CHI, TFC, PHI) = 51+ points
    3. FCD (defeat COR) = 49+ points
    4. NYR (defeat RSL and either PHI or NER) = 50+ points
    5. SJE (defeat four of CHI, CLB, DCU, HOU, CHV) = 51+ points
    6. SEA (defeat TFC, CHV, HOU) = 48 points
    7. COR (defeat PHI, DCU, RSL, and tie LAG) = 48 points
    8. KCW (defeat NYR, SEA, CHI, NER, SJE) = 48 points
    9. RSL ( lose to NER, NYR, FCD, COR) = 48 points

    There are no conflicts in this scenario.
     
  6. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Here's a summary of one event clinches/elimination (meaning if one result happens, then a team qualifies/is eliminated)

    RSL qualfies if:
    They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR
    KC does not win every one of their remaining games; OR
    Seattle loses any game (except versus KC)*
    *As the highest minimum total both teams could reach would be 46 points (as they play each other).

    FCD qualfies if:
    They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR
    KC does not win every one of their remaining games

    New York qualifies if they defeat KC*
    * as they're guaranteed at least second in the East in this scenario

    Chivas is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games

    Philly is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games
     
  7. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I was thinking earlier that they are already out. And it would not actually surprise me if MLS declared them out in the morning. But they are still in by a fingernail.

    SJE owns the head-to-head against PHI. SEA split their head to head with PHI (but is well ahead in GD). So if SEA gets one more point, then PHI is out ... barring some crazy multi-way tie. (PHI is dead last in the three-way tiebreaker between SJE, SEA and PHI.)
     
  8. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    NH
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Well, Philly's in really rough shape, then.

    I should go to bed, so I won't do the permutations, but the chances of them making it are ridiculously small.

    No matter what, Philly has to hope that either Seattle or San Jose loses out. But in both situations, that means KC gets at least one win, which puts them at 36 and just as likely to join the fray. And Philly only got 1 point out of KC.

    For KC to not join / surpass 39 points while getting a win against either Seattle or San Jose, they would have to tie / lose to Chicago, which would get Chicago closer to that 39 point mark as well. Philly and Chicago split points.

    Is it still technically possible for them to make it? I think so, but out of the hundreds of possible results in the remaining games, they'd be hanging their hopes on a very specific (and very unlikely) combination.
     
  9. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    NH
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Is this more accurate? Kansas City must win out, meaning a victory over Seattle. That means Seattle would be at 39 points with 3 games remaining. In order for Seattle to match RSL at 48, they have to win all of the other games.
     
  10. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Housekeeping

    1) Just a quick update.

    2) The chart is too big. (If it's screwy for you or you have to scroll sideways, please do let me know.) I have to make two sacrifices: the HD# and the AD#. But I'm keeping the HD#÷ and the AD#÷, which is fine because at this point with only a handful of games left the PPG numbers make the point just as well or even better.

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# WS# M#  T#  HD#÷  AD#÷[/U]
    [COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  13  --  --  --  --    --
    02  RSL  26  4  13  09  04  48  1.85  55  60  11  --  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
    03  FCD  26  4  11  13  02  46  1.77  53  58  09  --  03  20  --    --
    04  CMB  26  4  13  06  07  45  1.73  52  57  08  --  04  19  --    0.27
    05  NYR  26  4  13  05  08  44  1.69  51  56  07  --  05  18  --    0.50
    06  COL  26  4  11  08  07  41  1.58  47  53  04  --  08  15  --    1.27
    07  SJE  25  5  11  06  08  39  1.56  47  54  05  --  10  16  0.20  1.40
    08  SEA  26  4  11  06  09  39  1.50  45  51  02  --  10  13  0.27  1.77
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    09  KCW  25  5  09  06  10  33  1.32  40  48  --  --  16  10  1.40  2.60
    10  TFC  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  --  --  18  05  2.27  3.77
    11  CHI  25  5  07  08  10  29  1.16  35  44  --  02  20  06  2.20  3.40
    12  PHI  26  4  07  06  13  27  1.04  31  39  --  04  22  01† 3.27  4.77
    13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  --  06  24  02  3.00  4.20
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]14  HOU  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  05  23  --  --    --
    15  NER  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  05  23  --  --    --
    16  DCU  26  4  05  03  18  18  0.69  21  30  --  --‡ --  --  --    --
    [/COLOR]
    Current AD-Line: 46^[/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
    WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1
    M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
    HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
    HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
    AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
    AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
    
    - Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.**
    - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B]
    Asterisks

    † PHI is barely clinging to life. In fact, they're basically being kept alive only by virtue of technicalities (GD isn't finalized yet) and doubt (maybe there's a 39 point multi-way tie where they do OK). As it is right now, they come in third in a 39 point three-way tie with SJE and SEA. Against SJE alone they lose the 39 point tie-breaker. Against SEA alone the tie-breaker goes to GD, which isn't settled so you can't decide the tie-breaker for certain yet (though PHI trails badly). This is all so technical and slim-chance-doubtful that it would not surprise me to see MLS (once again) shrug their shoulders and simply declare PHI eliminated from playoff contention. They've already done that once, albeit in the other direction (declaring RSL in the playoffs when they had not, in fact, technically clinched). All that said, a point lost by PHI and they're definitely out (T# = 1).

    ‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 13 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain.

    ^ Set by SEA’s current 45 point (1.50 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above.

    ** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

    Notes

    CHI won tonight. But it almost doesn't even matter. CHI's MPP is 44. NYR stands at 44 currently, but CHI loses the tie-breaker against NYR. Casting aside doubts about multi-way ties (if MLS can do it, so can I), CHI cannot catch NYR. That leaves COL, SJE and SEA as the teams CHI can still hope to beat. To make the playoffs CHI needs one of those teams to collapse. Otherwise CHI simply cannot possibly make up the points (AD#÷ is 3.40). Even noting SJE's loss tonight, that's just not very likely. In other words, CHI could win its remaining 5 games and it's still not guaranteed a playoff spot. It's probably 50/50 that even winning out for 44 points would leave them just short or out on tie-breakers.

    On other thing: with the exception of KCW, it is quite conceivable that every single team currently sitting in the bottom half of the table could be eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday.
     
  11. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I did some quick, back of the envelope projections that I'm posting here if only so I can look them up at the end of the season and see how totally wrong they were. They're at the bottom.
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U]
    
    Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = 
             Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG]
    
    RSL: 1.85
    FCD: 1.63
    KCW: 1.53
    PHI: 1.49
    COL: 1.45
    NER: 1.41
    LAG: 1.41
    DCU: 1.39
    CDC: 1.34
    TFC: 1.28
    CHI: 1.27
    HOU: 1.26
    CMB: 1.22
    SJE: 1.15
    SEA: 1.07
    NYR: 1.05[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]
    
    [U]      WK27  WK28  WK29  WK30[/U]
    CDC:   LAG   TFC  @SEA   SJE
          ----  ----  ----   CHI
    CHI:  @FCD   CMB   KCW  @CDC
          ----  ----   DCU  ----
    CMB:   SJE  @CHI  @TFC   PHI
    COL:   DCU  @FCD  @LAG   RSL
    DCU:  @COL   SJE  @CHI   TFC
    FCD:   CHI   COL  @RSL  @LAG
    HOU:  @PHI   NER  @SJE   SEA
    KCW:  @NYR   SEA   CHI   SJE
          ----  ----  @NER  ----
    LAG:  @CDC  @PHI   COL   FCD
    NER:   RSL  @HOU   KCW  @NYR
    NYR:   KCW   RSL  @PHI   NER
    PHI:   HOU   LAG   NYR  @CMB
    RSL:  @NER  @NYR   FCD  @COL
    SEA:   TFC  @KCW   CDC  @HOU
    SJE:  @CMB  @DCU   HOU   CDC
          ----  ----  ----  @KCW
    TFC:  @SEA  @CDC   CMB  @DCU[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]
    
    [U]         HPPG         APPG[/U]
    01  RSL  2.43    LAG  1.85
    02  COL  2.15    FCD  1.54
    03  CMB  2.15    SJE  1.50
    04  NYR  2.08    SEA  1.38
    05  FCD  2.00    NYR  1.36
    06  LAG  2.00    CMB  1.31
    07  PHI  1.67    RSL  1.17
    08  TFC  1.64    CHI  1.08
    09  KCW  1.62    COL  1.00
    10  NER  1.62    KCW  1.00
    11  SJE  1.62    TFC  0.67
    12  SEA  1.62    CDC  0.62
    13  CDC  1.42    DCU  0.62
    14  HOU  1.38    HOU  0.62
    15  CHI  1.25    PHI  0.50
    16  DCU  0.77    NER  0.38[/B]
    Code:
    [B][U]Back Of The Envelope Projections[/U]  
    
    [U]         UP  TP  OP  AP[/U]
    01  LAG  58  59  56  57
    02  RSL  55  56  55  56
    03  FCD  53  54  53  53
    04  CMB  52  53  50  52
    05  NYR  51  52  48  50
    06  COL  47  49  47  48
    07  SJE  47  47  45  46
    08  SEA  45  45  43  44
    09  KCW  40  40  41  40
    10  TFC  36  38  36  37
    11  CHI  35  36  35  36
    12  PHI  31  34  33  33
    13  CDC  30  32  32  32
    14  NER  30  32  32  32
    15  HOU  30  30  31  31
    16  DCU  21  20  24  22
    
    Sorted by AP.[/B]
    Code:
    [B]UP = Unweighted Projection = PPG * 30 = PRJ in other charts
    TP = Weighted Team Performance Projection = PTS + (HGR * HPPG) + (AGR * APPG)
    OP = Weighted Opponent Performance Projection = PTS + (GR * SOS)
    AP = Weighted Average Projection = (TP + OP) / 2
    
    HGR: Home Games Remaining
    AGR: Away Games Remaining
    SOS: Strength of Schedule[/B]
    This really is back of the envelope stuff. So take the numbers with a big grain of salt. The only thing that I thought was sort of interesting in an isn't that curious kind of way is the fact the order remains identical in all of them.
     
  12. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Country:
    United States
    The 50/50 version of Sports Club Stats (where the simulations are run without any weighting for team strength) has RSL missing the playoffs in 1 out of 10,000,000 simulations.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS2.html
     
  13. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Yes it is, I realized when I was falling asleep, but didn't want to repost.
     
  14. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    I made some edits to the list. I re-checked the numbers, Philly's only chance of going through is on a tiebreak with Seattle (a tiebreak with San Jose would not work).

    RSL qualfies if:
    They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR
    KC does not win every one of their remaining games; OR
    Seattle fails to win any game, except the KC game; OR
    *As the highest minimum total both teams could reach would be 46 points (as they play each other).

    FCD qualfies if:
    They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR
    KC does not win every one of their remaining games

    New York qualifies if they defeat KC*
    * as they're guaranteed at least second in the East in this scenario

    Chivas is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games

    Philly is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    Seattle fails to lose any of its remaining games
     
  15. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Seattle 3 Toronto 2.

    Philly is eliminated, as they cannot have the h2h winning record necessary against San Jose, Chicago, or Kansas City.*

    Though TO and Chivas can both finish on 40 points, neither can finish on 39 points.
     
  16. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Revised one scenario qualfications:

    RSL qualfies if:
    They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR
    KC does not win every one of their remaining games; OR
    Seattle fails to win any game, except the KC game; OR
    *As the highest minimum total both teams could reach would be 46 points (as they play each other).

    FCD qualfies if:
    They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR
    KC does not win every one of their remaining games

    New York qualifies if they defeat KC*
    * as they're guaranteed at least second in the East in this scenario

    Chivas is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose wins any of their remaining games

    Toronto FC is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose wins any of their remaining games
     
  17. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Qualfied list and revised one result scenario qualfications:

    Qualfied:

    LAG
    RSL
    New York
    Columbus
    Dallas

    Eliminated:

    DCU
    NER
    HOU
    PHI


    Chivas is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games

    Toronto FC is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games
     
  18. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Housekeeping

    Quick update now. Big update tomorrow. Not many notes and only one fun fact.
    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# WS# M#  T#  HD#÷  AD#÷[/U]
    [COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  12  --  --  --  --    --
    02  RSL  27  3  14  09  04  51  1.89  57  60  10  --  --  --  --    --
    03  FCD  27  3  12  13  02  49  1.81  54  58  08  --  --  --  --    --
    04  NYR  27  3  14  05  08  47  1.74  52  56  06  --  --  --  --    --
    05  CMB  27  3  13  07  07  46  1.70  51  55  05  --  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
    06  SEA  27  3  12  06  09  42  1.56  47  51  01  --  04  12  --    1.53
    07  SJE  26  4  11  07  08  40  1.54  46  52  02  --  06  13  --    1.67
    08  COL  27  3  11  08  08  41  1.52  46  50  --  --  05  11  --    1.87
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    09  KCW  26  4  09  06  11  33  1.27  38  45  --  --  13  06  1.77  3.40
    10  TFC  27  3  08  07  12  31  1.15  34  40  --  --  15  01† 3.00  5.20
    11  CHI  26  4  07  08  11  29  1.12  33  41  --  02  17  02  2.77  4.40
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]12  PHI  27  3  07  07  13  28  1.04  31  37  --  03  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
    13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  --  06  21  01† 3.00  4.33
    [COLOR="SlateGray"]14  NER  27  3  07  06  14  27  1.00  30  36  --  04  --  --  --    --
    15  HOU  27  3  07  05  15  26  0.96  29  35  --  05  --  --  --    --
    16  DCU  27  3  06  03  18  21  0.78  23  30  --  --‡ --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
    
    Current AD-Line: 47^[/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
    WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1
    M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
    HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
    HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
    AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
    AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
    
    - Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.**
    - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B
    Asterisks

    † TFC and CDC remain playoff viable, but only barely. TFC's tiebreaker with SJE goes to GD, which is unsettled. And CDC's tiebreaker with SJE is unsettled because one game remains.

    ‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 10 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain.

    ^ Set by COL’s current 46 point (1.52 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above.

    ** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

    Notes

    A whole bunch of teams have clinched tonight. And one more team is out (PHI). And three teams (TFC, CHI and CDC) are sending flowers to SJE to thank them for drawing CMB. Because if SJE had won, they'd all be out too (if I recall the CHI tiebreakers correctly). Not that any of them are terribly alive. Meanwhile, despite another loss, KCW somehow manages to survive another week. Fun fact: with today's win over COL, DCU has become the only team in the league whose away record is stronger than its home record: HPPG=0.77, APPG=0.79. Tremble at our might!
    .
     
  19. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Qualfied list and revised one result scenario qualfications:

    Qualfied:

    LAG
    RSL
    New York
    Columbus
    Dallas

    Eliminated:

    DCU
    NER
    HOU
    PHI

    Seattle qualifies if:
    they win any remaining game; OR
    they tie kc

    Chivas is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games

    Toronto FC is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games

    Chicago is eliminated if:
    they do not win all of their remaining games; OR
    San Jose wins any of their remaining games
     
  20. Duiz

    Duiz Member

    Apr 10, 2007
    London
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Country:
    United States
    I love the job your doing here Knave & Co.

    I am noticing that this season, as opposed to last season, is going to have less complicated ending. RSL won't have to depend on 4 or 5 result for it to come in. It doesn't seem that any team trying to come in will have to face any super complex playoff entrance picture.

    Less parity I am guessing. Regardless, the intensity feels a lot higher this season.
     
  21. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    France

    I think Seattle only needs a draw. They beat KC earlier this year, so a draw gives them the tiebreaker if they both ended up on 43 (which would be the worst Seattle could do and the best KC could do if they draw).

    But then, I'm ignoring possible 3 or 4 way scenarios with San Jose and Colorado, so you could be right.
     
  22. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Country:
    Canada
    Seattle would win the first leg of a three or four way tie. Then the remaining teams would go to goal difference or, if Colorado is involved, KC would win for the remaining three spots.

    So basically, you're right, it would clinch it for Seattle, but it would not eliminate KC.
     
  23. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Yes. Less parity. I'm gonna post something about this tomorrow.
     
  24. Green and BLue

    Nov 3, 2003
    Republic of Cascadia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Country:
    United States
    Seattle is pretty much eliminated from the Supporter's Shield race. While we can catch RSL on 51 points, the tiebreak would go to GD, where RSL has a +20 advantage. We'd have to win all our remaining matches by 3-4 goals AND have RSL lose all their matches by the same margin to make up the difference. Not likely to happen.
     
  25. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Country:
    United States
    The battle for places 6 through 8 pretty interesting. KC has a chance to sneak in to #8. They have four games remaining, none of which re particularly awful for them, including three at home. KC has an added bonus of facing both Seattle and San Jose which would be great victories for the Wizards since it would double as loss for their rivals. Other games are at New England and home to Chicago. KC could definitely finish up strongly.

    However, their margin of error is so small as to be ridiculous. Let's say KC gets 8 to 10 points to finish the season. Technically that would do the trick, but would also requires a total collapse of one of three teams ahead of them. Certainly do-able, but not very likely. Certainly losing 1-0 to New York doesn't build much confidence.

    I don't think San Jose is going to be very cooperative towards KC's ambitions. San Jose has a similarly easy schedule, finishing up with @DC, Houston, Chivas USA and at Kansas City. That's the four-course road-kill special. Seriously, San Jose can suck it for the four final games, and still manage to bag, say 4 points.

    Seattle is up two points on San Jose (and nine on Kansas City) with three to go, but their schedule sets up like a fluffer for Wilt Chamberlin. Too easy: At Kansas City, Civas and at Houston. I guess two road games will be challenging, but if Seattle doesn't get 3 points over these games, the don't deserve the playoffs.

    Now, Colorado is in a bit of a pickle. Inexplicably, the lost to DC Unfried at home. Crazy. Now they have three to play @Dallas, @LA & home to RSL. I wouldn't be totally surprised if Colorado gains a grand total of zero points to end the season. The question is whether KC can gain eight or nine points in their last four to overtake the Pids.

    It would be kinda cool if they finished even on points, then battled in a play-in game for that 8th playoff spot. (I know its not in the rules.)

    Here's my prediction:

    San Jose 48 points (face LA in playoffs)
    Seattle 47 points (face NY in playoffs)
    Colorado 44 points (face Columbus in playoffs)

    This is for another post, but think Columbus eases past NY for the top spot in the east.
     

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