With Columbus tying its own record for fewest points for a Supporters' Shield winner, I was curious about the previous Shield winners' point totals as compared to the rest of the league. For example, while the 2004 and 2009 Crew finished on 49 points, was that number somewhat "expected" based on how the league results fell overall; were there fewer points gained per game with 49 being an outstanding number or is 49 just blah no matter what? I put this together late last night, so my math and logic might be off, but here's what I did: Pts: Supporters' Shield winner's point total for the season PPG: Shield winners' Pts/GP MLS Total PPG: I took all of the standings points earned and divided it by all of the games played, which I assumed was the total of all teams' GP/2. SS PPG/Total PPG: The Shield winners' PPG divided by the total PPG. Team PPG: Total PPG/2, to see the average PPG for a team. SS PPG/Team PPG: Shield winners' PPG divided by the average PPG. Now, assuming I used BigSoccer code correctly... Code: Year SS Winner Pts PPG MLS Total SS PPG/ Team PPG SS PPG/ PPG Total PPG Team PPG 1996 Tampa Bay 58 1.81 2.58 0.70 1.29 1.41 1997 DC United 55 1.72 2.59 0.66 1.29 1.33 1998 Los Angeles 68 2.13 2.66 0.80 1.33 1.60 1999 DC United 57 1.78 2.41 0.74 1.20 1.48 2000 Kansas City 57 1.78 2.82 0.63 1.41 1.26 2001 Miami 53 2.04 2.82 0.72 1.41 1.44 2002 Los Angeles 51 1.82 2.84 0.64 1.42 1.28 2003 Chicago 53 1.77 2.73 0.65 1.36 1.30 [b]2004 Columbus 49 1.63 2.69 0.61 1.35 1.21[/b] 2005 San Jose 64 2.00 2.77 0.72 1.39 1.44 2006 DC United 55 1.72 2.71 0.63 1.35 1.27 2007 DC United 55 1.83 2.74 0.67 1.37 1.34 [b]2008 Columbus 57 1.90 2.73 0.70 1.36 1.39[/b] [b]2009 Columbus 49 1.63 2.69 0.61 1.35 1.21[/b] Without drawing too many outlandish conclusions, it does look like the Crew's 2004 and 2009 Shield-winning seasons aren't exactly the dominating performances of other winners, perhaps due to crazy parity those seasons or something; I'm not quite sure. I really don't know what any of it means, what conclusions to draw, or if anyone else was even curious.
You could have just emailed me and I could have given you all of that Normalized Point Score stuff I did, where I made an OPS+ type stat for team strength based on league averages. Multiply your results by 100 to get each Shield winner's NPS. (Oh, and instead of PPG, I took the total points in the table at the end of the year and divided by the number of teams. Then I divided each team's point total by the average point total. It's less work and has fewer rounding variances. The only year I used PPG is 2001, where I had to determine an expected point total for those who played 27 and 26 games.)
In a nutshell, doesn't this just say that more draws in a year = more parity, so more draws throughout the league in a year = greater likelihood the leader will have fewer points than usual?
Not necessarily. More league-wide draws in a given season could give the Shield winner a better chance to pull away. 2006 had a higher percentage of ties yet DC had 55 points.
Du Nord links to this article about changing the benefits given to the Supporters Shield winner in the MLS Cup playoffs. Michael Lewis's idea is interesting and all, but I'd like to keep the playoffs the way they are, and then see an MLS version of the Supercoppa Italia, where the champion of Serie A plays the champion of the Coppa Italia. In the MLS version, the Supporters Shield winner would play the MLS Cup winner, and if it's the same side, then that team would play the runner up of the MLS Cup.
Sounds like an interesting idea. One thing I might change is just make the SS winner sit out the playoffs. That might put the SS team at a disadvantage since they'll have rested for quite sometime so maybe it wouldn't work out. Just a thought.
I think you'll see that a number of fans agree with the idea of a "SuperCoppa" or whatever you want to call it. I think this idea has been done in MLS once or twice, as an official kickoff to the next MLS season, and it is a good idea. Of course, they'll just keep scheduling our home opener against TFC. After all, TFC "has such wonderful passion and their fans travel in droves, thus creating a great atmosphere between rival supporters groups" or whatever spew the league is coming out with this week.
Well, by doing it this way, it gives the Crew an entire season to repair the stadium after the TFC fans act like idiots.