Going into the final weeks of the 2019 season and Atlanta just bumped the Union from first place. NYCFC are ahead on mpg as well. What are your predictions for where the Union end the season? I'm thinking they go 2 - 3 - 2 down the stretch and end up in 3rd place and win their first playoff game to crash in round 2. Thoughts?
At the start of July I tried my best to map out the Union's final 13 matches. Through the first 6, I had picked them to go 3-1-2 with 11 points, and they ended up 3-3-0 for 9 points. Here is what I think for the rest of the year (original thought vs. adjustments). vs. DCU - Originally Draw (Updated to Win) - DCU was playing much better when I originally looked at this. This is now a win. vs. ATL - Originally expected a loss, and I still think so. - Yes we are at home, but Atlanta is just clicking 100% right now, and I don't think we can withstand them at their best. vs. LAFC - Originally expected a loss, and I still think so. - LAFC has had a few bumps lately, but they still outclass us at every corner. It's possible we get a draw due to the Coast-to-Coast travel lag, along with them already clinching a playoff spot, but that's about all I think we hope for. @ RBNY - Originally expected a draw, and I stand by that. - We always play them tight, but they've started to play a bit better. Having to go to their stadium doesn't help matters, but a point is a must here, and I think the Union go all out for it. @ SJ - Originally expected a draw, sticking with that. - I'm tempted to change this to a loss. San Jose looks sharp, and we have to go all the way out there for this match. I wouldn't be surprised if we left with nothing, but there is a good chance we are collecting so few points in the matches prior to this one, we cannot play defensive here. @ CLB - Originally expected a win, still think so. - Columbus is a wreck, and they have nothing to play for this late in the season. Even in their own house they'll put up little resistance, and the Union can finally be certain to get 3 points. vs. NYCFC - Originally expected a draw, still think so. - NYCFC may still be in the hunt for the #1 spot so they're not going to come in to kick the ball around if they have a chance for a 1st round bye. We, on the other hand, may be trying to just hang on for a home playoff spot (as crazy as that sounds). In any event, both teams come out to play and we get a point. So, all total, an ugly looking 2-2-3 for 9 points to end the season. Boy am I hoping I'm way off on that!
Disappointed I'll be away for the NYRB game, since that is my backyard now. I'll be happy with 9 points - 3 wins - from the rest. Going back 10 games over a much easier schedule they have lost as many as they've won. Aside from the DC win I can't remember when I last enjoyed watching a game, win or lose.
Playoff and MLS cup stats from 538.com as of 8/20...Union at 6% to win it all. MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER 2019 season END-OF-SEASON PROBABILITIES TEAM SPI MAKE PLAYOFFS/WIN MLS CUP LAFC58 pts 63.2 >99% 54% Atlanta45 pts 51.3 >99% 13% NYCFC41 pts 49.8 >99% 12% Philadelphia45 pts 45.9 >99% 6% Portland37 pts 42.4 91% 3% Seattle40 pts 42.2 87% 2% Real Salt Lake40 pts 40.4 93% 2% NY Red Bulls38 pts 42.9 92% 2% LA Galaxy41 pts 39.8 91% 2% Minnesota42 pts 38.7 82% 1%
San Jose38 pts 39.8 72% 1% FC Dallas37 pts 41.0 62% <1% Toronto FC34 pts 38.5 54% <1% New England35 pts 35.9 50% <1% Sporting KC31 pts 42.9 19% <1% Montreal34 pts 35.2 63% <1% D.C. United39 pts 33.0 79% <1% Chicago33 pts 39.4 22% <1% Orlando City34 pts 34.5 40% <1% Columbus27 pts 35.6 1% <1%
Good article by Peter andrews: https://phillysoccerpage.net/2019/08/20/time-for-the-union-to-find-some-consistency/
Just to have it all in one place: as of 9/15 9am 1. NYCFC 57pts @Dallas, Atlanta, @NE, @Philly 2. Union 52pts @nyrb, @SJ, @Columbus, NYCFC 3. Atlanta 48pts (*5games left) @Cinncy, SJ, @NYCFC, @Montreal, NE 4. Toronto 42pts Colorado, @LAFC, @chicago, Columbus 5. DC 42pts @Portland, Seattle, @nyrb, Cinncy 6. NYRB 41pts (*5 games left) @seattle, @Portland, Philly, DC, @Montreal 7. NER 40pts RSL, @Portland, NYCFC, @atlanta Big questions are if we can catch NYC and stay ahead of Atlanta. With TFC and DC's recent run of form I think we are clear of them. NYRB has 2 west coast games in a row right before they come back to play us so next weekend will be big.
Adding to this...the race for the 4 CCL spots: 1. ATL is in (USOC Winner) 2. LAFC is in (Western Conference winner) 3. NYC should get in by winning the East (assuming PHL doesn't leap frog them). 4. The last spot goes to the MLS Cup winner, unless one of the teams above wins the cup, in which case it will be the team with the most points in the overall standings that hasn't qualified by another method. The means the paths to the CCL for the Union are to: A. Win MLS Cup B. Leapfrog NYC & stay ahead of ATL to win the east. C. Hope that one of LAFC/ATL/NYC win MLS Cup AND stay ahead of RSL & SEA in the table (each is currently 6 points back of PHL but have 5 games remaining). A. is the only method by which we control our own destiny, but if I'm being honest, C is the most likely scenario. Either way, I like our chances if we take care of our business to finish the regular season.
Thanks to NYCFC not getting all 9 points in their games this past week, and the Union getting a well-deserved draw with LA. My (not so) highly regarded algorithm has pushed the Union from finishing 3rd to 1st, edging out NYCFC by 1 point on the final day. Let's go!!!!
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html 10% chance of finishing 1st 50% chance of finishing 2nd 38% chance of finishing 3rd 1% chance of finishing 4th 1% chance this now adds up to 100%. Anything worse than 3-0-1 means it is more likely than not that the Union will not finish in first.
Don't tell the front office, but playoff tickets are crazy inexpensive. . . If anyone here is not not buying a "playoff strip" of your season tickets, please DM me.
It's so nice to be into these last few games because of the possible impact on our success and not the possible impact of not making the playoffs at all. I think home field is important for all three teams at the top of the heap in the east and wherever we end up keeping the pressure on and not letting them rest their best players is important as well.
Honestly as much as winning the east would be great it likely won't happen. 2nd will do just fine. Especially if we take care of business we would host the 2nd round and depending on results could host the third round assuming we get there. They just need to get some results over the next 3 games to make sure we stay in the 2nd spot.
The crap typical MLS thing about the playoffs is that the 2nd and 3rd rounds are going to be on random weekdays. The 2nd round is either Wednesday or Thursday. Conference finals on either Tuesday or Wednesday. That's going to kill attendance in those two rounds if the game is in Chester. And if the conference finals are in NY and, soccer gods willing, the Union make it, there is no way in hell I can get off work with 3 days' notice from the previous round to go up and attend in person. Who comes up with this stupidity? https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2019/08/28/mls-announces-schedule-audi-2019-mls-cup-playoffs
What better way to maximize playoff attendance than putting the games on weeknights? Nothing better than kicking off in a stadium where everyone is still trying to get to the parking lot!
MLB playoff schedule: LCS games 6&7: 10/19 & 10/20 WS game 2: 10/23 WS game 6: 10/29 WS game 7: 10/30 For perhaps the first time in my entire life, I'm actually hoping for the Yankees to have a deep postseason run just so NYCFC can't play in their playoff games on that joke of a field.
They arent getting on national TV on a Saturday. I imagine that drives a good portion of the decision. Midweek didn't hurt attendance for 2 Open Cup Finals in Chester
Yes and no...the crowds were some of the loudest and most energized I've ever experienced for a Union home game, but they were far from being sellouts...and they had a full month to advertise the game. Per Wikipedia: 2014 vs Seattle: 15,256 2015 vs SKC: 14,463
Apparently LAFC clinched a home playoff game for the Union over the weekend with their draw against Toronto, in spite of our pathetic performance against Red Bull. That's so Union!
Theres an article about Yankee stadium possibly not being able to host the playoffs. Their top substitute? Shea Stadium. Lmfao.
The won one of their last 5 games to end the season...4 of a possible 15 points for 0.8 ppg. They have done nothing since the LAFC game to suggest they won't be one and done in the playoffs and would have any business playing in the Champions League next year.
Well, they ended 3-3-1 in that stretch for 10 points. I was off on the numbers, but I'm going to say calling it "ugly looking" was correct. ETA: On a side note, I started tracking/predicting/computing results back around the 4th of July. My original final standings when running through all matches was: 1) NYCFC 2) Atlanta 3) Philadelphia 4) Montreal 5) DC United 6) Red Bulls 7) Toronto Not too shabby - all but #4 & #7 were correct. Definitely didn't see Montreal crapping out the way they did, though.