Strength of Confederation [R]

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by Hattrix, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    Whenever I see such round numbers, I always double-check the source.

    Turns out that those July 2007 numbers were debunked in 2018.
    Apparently, FIFA came up with a "Big Count" 2007 report which hyped up figures all around.
    No wonder the South African figures were so high... WC 2010 in South Africa.

    Nothing more than a FIFA publicity whitepaper. Even that 2007 report makes a sorry disclaimer about its own figures:
    I am starting to doubt whether FIFA has published any factual numbers regarding football practice in Asia.
    I guess if you build it (the hype), they will come (investors).

    The same article which debunks the 2007 Big Count report makes observations on the erroneous correlation between "big registration numbers" and "great national teams". Good read.
    https://www.socceramerica.com/publi...rs-numbers-game-big-registration-numbers.html

    Like @Oddo26 indicated, the wrong player pool will not yield a proper NT. No matter how large that wrong player pool is.
     
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  2. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    Then why bring up *genes* into the conversation then?

    Do you believe that some NTs are genetically predisposed to win a World Cup?
    Which NTs are those?
     
  3. Oddo26

    Oddo26 Member

    Jul 12, 2014
    New York City
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Uruguay
    Should they get an auto slot? Oceania is basically Australia and the surrounding islands and without Australia it's basically a fake confederation.
     
  4. Oddo26

    Oddo26 Member

    Jul 12, 2014
    New York City
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Uruguay
    Having more people means little if they aren't being trained or prepared properly. The US might have more overall soccer players too than the most successful players. Quantity isn't quality. It isn't enough to just get everyone playing the game which isn't everyone it's a very small percentage of their population, they've got to be put in a position to succeed. Experience and tradition plays a big part but this stems from the sport having been a priority.
     
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  5. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I believe that every Confederation (including OFC) should have a spot in a 32 team world cup. Now whether or not OFC should be a confederation at all is another debate.
     
  6. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    And full disclosure - every country in the world at the time voted that OFC were big enough to be a confederation with the same status as (say) South America...

    ... every country except Australia that is.

    J
     
  7. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I think it is self-evident that teams improve, both in the psychological aspects as well in the physical and technical aspects, of the game by playing a greater number of games against quality opposition. The lack of inter-confederation matches, therefore, clearly disadvantages the development of the game in those confederations were such quality opposition is lacking. Conversely, it has helped development of the game in places like Conmebol or UEFA where even lower tier sides get to regularly play more established top tier teams. The purpose of the examples and comparisons I have given is to show that there are few other factors that you can truly credit for the different level of development in the game between different regions. I used the example of certain South American sides, juxtaposed to certain Asian ones, because here certain other factors that might be at issue elsewhere aren't at issue. For instance, if you compare China with Peru, no matter how you slice it, there are more Chinese fans, football players, everything else. And a lot more money invested into the game. And, unlike say West African sides or European sides which might seem to have certain physical advantages on average, its hard to find on average such advantages among the player pools in Peru or Bolivia compared to China.

    Anyway, whether you are convinced by what I have had to say, or not, I am personally interested for various reasons to see a huge expansion in inter-continental and confederation matches along with a lot more diversity in terms of the games being hosted in different regions and countries. The expansion of intercontinental matches to me is essential in order to give teams from across different regions the necessary experience I have alluded to. It is also essential to have any sensible ranking system that can truly rank teams from different regions. It is also something that, coupled with my view on how these games and groups should be hosted, will help football bring more people and cultures in touch with one another. Something that will help break down stereotypes, ignorance, and the kind of isolation that some like to promote in order to be able to advance certain political agendas. The more opportunity you have for tens of thousands of fans to travel to different countries, and for millions of television viewers to see these countries as hosts, the less the likelihood that you can promote ridiculous stereotypes and lies about these countries. Given that I am from Iran, that is a huge deal to me as well.

    All that and some other things has led me to conclude that the best World Cup format would be to have a 64 team Intercontinental Qualifying taking place in 16 different groups, each of these groups hosted in a multitude of different countries including countries such as mine which will never get the chance to host the World Cup itself. Hopefully, something like what I suggest will become reality some day.
     
  8. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    In a perfect world, every NT would play opponents of their choosing. Minor confeds would set up tournaments with major confeds.

    However, UEFA moves towards a closed-circuit model: willing to swap a few lucrative friendlies for more competition of minnows (their new nations league).

    Concacaf moves towards the same model: raise competitive level of minnows to make its confed stronger in the aggregate. Stronger minnows will force top teams to become stronger too. They need to protect their WC slot allocation.

    Conmebol explores changes to Copa America. For now, a conversion to a cash-making operation, bringing in NTs backed by large money (eg Qatar, USA, etc), and even transplanting it onto Concacaf venues.

    These models of intra-continental matches consume calendar time. Any proposals for inter-continental matches would need to generate tons of money in order to offset emerging business models at UEFA+Concacaf+Conmebol.

    In the end, each confed is looking out for itself. UEFA + Concacaf will not scrap their new business models in order to subsidize development of other confeds.
    I would not be surprised if Conmebol moves its main intra-continental event outside of Conmebol venues, in exchange of large TV rights (eg China, Japan).

    A group of sages said once: cash rules everything around me ♫
     
  9. Oddo26

    Oddo26 Member

    Jul 12, 2014
    New York City
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Uruguay
    The idea of inter confed qualifying is fine my issue is with the ratio which is very unfair to UEFA at the expense of the other confeds especially OFC. More inter confed play would also help a ranking system decide as well that being said in this era the other confeds have gotten far more WC oppurtunities than in the past and failed to do almost anything with them. Of course the whole "playing with good competition" argument is relevant but the best players in historically mediocre and bad countries go to play for and against good club teams most of the year already. There is no such isolation anymore almost no teams have all their players coming from their domestic leagues, more often than not there are mostly all in the well regarded domestic leagues. I think the Croats for example had like 2 or 3 bench players from the Croat league and that was it. National teams are basically national all star teams and those players will get oppurtunities in non international play to see elite competition which is most of their career as opposed to internationals.

    Again I don't see the evidence that teams really improve. World Cup history is the same teams doing about the same, more teams makes the same look better than the past though. "Golden Generations" tend to see temporary increases that will almost always never be followed by a second right away.
     
  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think OFC deserves a full spot in the World Cup, but they do in a hypothetical 16 team tournament without UEFA and CONMEBOL. Furthermore, giving AFC, CAF, and CONCACAF five each and OFC one make the numbers add up. If OFC got 0.5, one of the confederations would have 5.5.

    Countries declare independence and the USSR, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia broke up. I don't know what national team(s) players from Kosovo and Gibraltar were eligible for before they became members of FIFA. South Sudan got independence from Sudan. Likewise, I think countries are more likely to want more confederations than to want AFC and OFC to merge. If a popular vote of the 46 AFC and 11 OFC countries were done, I think most AFC countries would vote against adding weak countries who are far away from the geographic center of AFC.
     
  11. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Allocation is fair for 2026...
    60% CONMEBOL
    29% UEFA
    17% AFC
    17% CAF
    17% CONCACAF
    9% OFC

    In regards to OFC having one spot and New Zealand auto qualifying. Lots of nations will auto qualify now.

    Mexico, USA, Costa Rica should all auto qualify
    Brazil, Argentina should auto qualify
    Japan, South Korea should auto qualify
    It will be easier for UEFA teams to qualify too. Top 2 in each group will auto qualify now. Except for the bottom 4 second place teams will need a playoff to narrow to 16.

    Also, lets say the Olympics was set up the way you propose... certain events would be dominated by certain countries and regions. In the 100M only 1 to 3 perticapants from each nation qualify. Some nations like the US or Jamaica could field more then 3, but other weaker athletes from other countries qualify instead. Long distance would be dominated by other countries, like Kenya. China would dominate pingpong. Swimming could be a field of USA and Australia with a few other countries mixed in. To make it a WORLD event you need WORLD participation.
     
  12. Oddo26

    Oddo26 Member

    Jul 12, 2014
    New York City
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Uruguay
    New Zealand is by far the least meritorious of those countries to auto qualify. Also you don't need to make up confederations to get those countries spots, Mexico and Korea already largely auto qualified, that's why their world cup records are so terrible they keep qualifying over and over again and losing over and over again. Still Mexico was consistently the best or second best team in North America and Korea the same in Asia, didn't need to literally hand it it's own confederation to reach that outcome. At least with Australia there and the 0.5 slots they used to have it would be more defendable but with Australia gone, this is actually comical not just in terms of results but in terms of the capacity to ever achieve results. Much of this confederation consists of national teams whose countries barely qualify to be defined as such. This isn't about global representation, it probably has more to do with logistics.

    Let's analyze. I rounded everything more or less.

    1)Papua New Guinea 10 million people
    2)New Zealand 4 million people
    3)Fiji 900 thousand people
    4)Solomon Islands 600 thousand people
    5)Vanuatu 400 thousand people
    6)Tahiti 275 thousand people
    7)New Caledonia 270 thousand people
    8)Samoa 200 thousand people
    9)Kiribati 110 thousand people
    10)Tonga 100 thousand people
    11)American Samoa 51 thousand people(this is part of our country why do they have their own team?)
    12)Cook Islands 17 thousand people
    13)Tuvalu 11 thousand people
    14)Niue 1600 people(no I did not forget a zero)

    If it's open to the world I don't see a problem with one country dominating. Olympic medal counts have always favored the super powers and there is far less parity in the Olympics than just about any competitive thing I've ever seen with the same 3 or 4 nations always getting the most medals. The FIFA World Cup used to actually be dominated by UEFA for regional probably racist reasons. Those days are gone and if anything it's the opposite extreme now where the other confeds are given deferential treatment they keep showing they don't really deserve. Of course Asia and Africa have the potential to do better and are needed to make a tournament global, is one of the above nations in OFC really needed?
     
  13. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #188 Footsatt, Aug 9, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2018
    Jamaica and the US should be dominating more, but they can't, because they only get 3 spots. I bet the US or Jamaica for that matter could have athletes that could take the spots of many of the other countries qualifying spots, but only 3 from each nation can qualify. Jamaica and USA still dominate in this event, but many athletes that are more deserving then other athletes from other nations are left at home for weaker athletes because Jamaica and USA can only have 3 spots.

    To make it a world event you need to invite the world. Yes, OFC is needed, because like it or not they are a separate confederation, and deserve representation in a 48 team World Cup. Just like Brijesh Lawrence represented the St Kitts and Nevis at the 2016 Olympics in the 100M with a population of 55K. He finished with a 10.55. USA alone has over 500 runners that beat this time in 2016, but only 3 can go.

    Here is another example... the best time for the preliminaries for 20 athletes in 3 rounds was 10.43. the US still has over 400 athletes that can beat this time. The entire preliminary round could be made up of all USA athletes, but again only 3 can go.
     
  14. Oddo26

    Oddo26 Member

    Jul 12, 2014
    New York City
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Uruguay
    "To make it a world event you need to invite the world. Yes, OFC is needed, because like it or not they are a separate confederation, and deserve representation in a 48 team World Cup."

    Whether they deserve representation isn't even tied to whether they deserve to be a confederation. Prior to 2026 they had 0.5 spots and for much of that time the Aussies were part of that equation and hence OFC was slightly more deserving. I just don't accept the "this is the way it is regardless of what sense it makes and we should accept it because it is what it is" sort of logic. If things don't make sense they don't make sense, if they do they do. OFC has a total population of less than 20 million people an overwhelming majority of which live in 2-3 countries. CONMEDOL the second smallest has over 400 million over 20 times the people.
     
  15. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
  16. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    So, we’re a few years out from 2022, but I’d be interested to continue this conversation that people were having during/after WC 2018.

    With the WC outside Europe again, will UEFA again return to something resembling their poor 2010 and 2014 performances? Can AFC build on its positive 2018 performance with further improvements on Asian soil in 2022? How much of a home advantage will AFC teams actually have in Qatar, particularly the East Asian teams/Australia?

    Of interest, certainly, will be qualifying. I may be wrong, but I wonder if this is the cycle we finally get someone new from AFC (China? Uzbekistan? Iraq?Bahrain?) CONCACAF also looks probably as interesting as it’s been in a while with Canada relevant for the first time in ages and Costa Rica looking to be on the downturn. Will WC performances suffer in some confederations if some of the usual suspects don’t make it?

    Lots of things to mull over.
     
  17. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    China is in second and will fall 5 points behind Syria if China loses their next game in Syria. Uzbekistan leads their group and hosts second place Saudi Arabia and third place Palestine next month. Similarly, Iraq leads their group and hosts third place Iran and second place Bahrain next month. Uzbekistan and/or Iraq will be in much worse shape if they lose one or both. Uzbekistan ends at Saudi Arabia, and Iraq ends at Iran. Qatar leads their group, and if they win their group or are one of the best four second place teams, the fifth best second place team will advance.
     
  18. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    2022 is a complete wildcard. if I had to guess, three things really play into the bigger teams doing really well:

    1) they're getting players in mid-season form due to the winter date. Everyone is tired at the end of the year, but players going through the grind in the top leagues + club competitions probably have greater Jun-July fatigue than others.
    2) the luck of the draw re: travel is not going to be an issue. So less uncertainty there.
    2) organization is going to be absolutely critical because this thing is going off in such a small nation. So the FAs that make the investment up front to lock down resources (8 or so UEFA + couple in CONMEBOL + 2-3 wealthier FAs in the ROW) are going to have a logistical/training camp atmosphere advantage. So it's about securing the best accommodations, training facilities, having the necessary staffing to keep the media at distance, etc.
     
  19. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Of course some of those teams have better chances than others. I was just giving some examples of potential dark horses.

    China came a lot closer to qualifying for 2018 than people might think, despite finishing fifth. If China had not conceded a last-minute equalizer in their “away” game against Syria, and beaten Qatar at home as expected, they would have had 16 points to SK’s 15.

    Uzbekistan would have qualified over SK in 2014 with one more goal scored or over Iran if Iran hadn’t won in SK on the final day. They would have qualified over SK in 2018 if they had beaten the latter at home instead of recording a goalless draw.

    As good as SK’s record looks on paper, they are really lucky to have been at not just one, but both of the last two WCs.
     
  20. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Uefa has won the last 3 Worldcups, 2 outside of Europe, they are the undisputed King right now, even though it is hard to compare UEFA and Conembol, because you are comparing 10 teams to 50 plus. Conembol has about 6 or 7 top quality sides 2 or 3 average and 1 poor team. While the top 4 or 5 Uefa teams are roughly the same quality of Conembols top 4 or 5 IMO, the conembol teams have not stepped up to win a competition since 2002.

    So when we talk about UEFA having "poor WCs" that is generally speaking about the teams outside of the top 4 or 5 usual powerhouses like Germany, England, Portugal, Spain, France.

    I believe 2022 will look more like Brazil and South Africa in that regard than the recent Russia WC. While UEFA teams won the last 3 WC's, 6 uefa teams made the knockout rounds in both Brazil and South AFrica as opposed to 10 in Russia.

    I dont believe any Asian teams will have an advantage in Qatar, unless they are middle eastern teams.

    Australia, S. Korea, Japan, should they qualify will not have any advantage.

    Saudi Arabia and UAE may also have negative support because of the political situation with Qatar.

    I dont think any new qualifiers will come from AFC. Iraq and China have qualified before. Maybe you mean new as in "havent qualified for a while" Uzbekistan would certainly be the best shot.

    the new rules using FIFA rankings for the hex are utterly ridiculous and make a mockery of the confederation. Its even worse the fact that the rankings use a ridiculous method to calculate the results. Canada is easily a top 6 side in Concacaf, yet due to the ridiculousness of FIFA rankings we have to hope that El Salvador dont overtake us by beating Monserrat and St. Lucia. Any serious ranking would never give any team credit for beating such pathetic opposition.

    This could have been a very interesting concacaf qualifying if they just used the old method.

    Curacao has emerged as a player, then we also have Haiti, Jamaica with some new players, a resurgent Canada, Honduras, Panama, of course US and Mexico. It could have been a very interesting qualification for the hex, but concacaf seems to want to gaurantee the US qualification. Truly disgusting.

    I think 2022 will be a new generation of players, even though the likes of England and France will have relatively continuous squads with the young players from 2018.

    A lot of key players in the Brazil and Argentina squads are aging. Uruguay has a young squad minus their 2 star strikers, Chile is aging. Will Ronaldo really lead Portugal one last time ? Will Messi retire ?

    Croatia seems to be seriously aging, they have youth but not the quality to replace guys like Modric and Rakitic.

    I think 2022 will be a very different looking worldcup as it seems to be one where a whole generation of players are retiring.[/QUOTE]
     
  21. pipinogol

    pipinogol Member+

    May 20, 2016
    Club:
    Cary RailHawks U23
    Other than Qatar I don't see any debutants making it this time tbh...

    But if I had to pick "candidates" this would be my top 6:

    1) Jordan
    2) Venezuela
    3) Syria
    4) Uzbekistan (USSR results don't count for them according to FIFA)
    5) Curacao
    6) Mali
     
  22. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    We three nations have a small advantage as we have some experience in playing in the middle East in a tournament (Asian Cups in 2019 (UAE) and 2011 (Qatar)). I don't think its a huge advantage, but it will help in preparations as we will know what to expect if we qualify.
     

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