I'm enjoying the conversation - very simulating - but this is soccer. Everyone here (who has played the game at any level, really) has 1) Beaten a team you had no business beating; AND 2) Lost to a team you should 'never' have lost to; WITH 3) Draws in both categories above. This shambolic version of T&T just led Mexico 1-0 late, were tied 1-1 after 87 minutes, before giving up two late goals. In Mexico, against a good (if not fully motivated) team. I think we'll win - we definite should win - but there's a substantial chance we won't win.
Honestly, I hope so. I think we will take care of business in T&T tomorrow and I'd like to see Panama take 4th place.
Away in CONCACAF just doesn't seem to bend to the numbers easily. T&T looked pretty respectable in its last game to me. I think the idea that T&T has only an 11 or 12 percent chance of winning is pretty far off. I guess I should put some money on them now that I think about it.
Having seen the pictures from Trinidad's field, I am sticking with my assessment: ELO has no meaning in this match.
This should motivate them on paper, but do you think it's just too attenuated to have much real effect?
Mexico has secured pot 2, and I dont think they can make pot 1. I am unsure on CR... According to wiki CR can still be 2 or 3. So they have something to play for. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding Looking deeper into Mexico... they are currently ranked 14th with 1085 points. These are the teams above them: Russia Germany Brazil Portugal - Not qualified (depending on their last match they will qualify directly or make the playoff) Argentina - Not qualified (one of 5 fighting for 2.5 spots) Belgium Poland Switzerland - Not qualified (same as Portugal, one of Switz or Portugal go to the playoff) France - Not qualified (depending on their last match they will qualify directly or make the playoff) Chile - Not qualified (one of 5 fighting for 2.5 spots) Colombia - Not qualified (one of 5 fighting for 2.5 spots) Spain Peru - Not qualified 1103 (one of 5 fighting for 2.5 spots) Wales - eliminated MEX - 1085 Maybe MEX can make it if other teams above them don't qualify, but I am unsure on the odds of this happening.
It is true that historically, away points are more difficult to get in these games. For the previous Hex's (150 matches), the home advantage has been worth roughly 168 Elo points (as opposed to 100 in the standard Elo formula). However I've already baked that in here, because my Poisson model for goals scored is based on those 150 matches. We got this...on my computer.
Australia's victory has dropped our chances to qualify by 0.20%, as we beat them just 61.8% of the time vs. the 67.6% for the hybridized opponent I was using. Well, it's actually worse. Since the only (in practice) way we can finish 4th is with a loss to T&T, that would crush our Elo pretty good. A one goal loss takes 33 off our Elo. That puts us at 1728 while Australia is at 1703. At that point it's about 55.7% for us to win and drops the overall qualify % by 0.40%
The US is going to have to do this on its own, and on a muddy track. Bruce needs to start all mudders tonight.
Yeah, I did some googling around and Mexico is pretty much locked into pot 2. CR still has some chance of making Pot 2 with a win and some help.
I have no idea how much of an effect that it might have. I suspect it depends partially on how much emphasis the coach puts on it. It isn't true though that they have nothing to play for. Something is better than nothing.
They'll play with no pressure but they are also down nearly all their most experienced players. No K. Jones, Cato, or Molino (yellow card accumulation). The US is taking all their top guys. Gritty, focused guys used to the pressure. That difference is huge. These guys will just want it more.
I really hope this is one of those wisdom of the crowd things and you guys are right. With the field conditions, the newbie ref, the pressure cooker of last Friday, and the other teams having much easier situations, I just can't get comfortable. I really believe that it's about 1 in 6 the US is out altogether.
No USMNT fan can be comfortable, with qualification not yet assured, so we talk about percentages to make ourselves feel better.
Hey @Reccossu Hope you made some money. Fuccckkkk my computer and my fucccccking Statistics degree. I'm going into the wine business. Oh shit the entirely of Napa and Sonoma is on fire. Godamn this godamn shit.
Oh man, I can't believe that a horrible, devastating event that seemed so statistically unlikely that it was nearly impossible actually happened despite the long odds. What an unmitigated unredeeming tragedy for all involved. But enough bitching about the 2016 election. Now I'm going to go watch the US play T&T on my DVR, I'm sure that'll lift my spirits.
LOL!!! I said to my wife and son this morning how I really felt this morning like how I felt the day after the election -- how could this possibly have happened? Did this really just happen? This wasn't supposed to happen! Inconceivable!
Best thread of the entire Concacaf WC campaign, thank you so much for all your knowledge, I really enjoyed how you tracked the campaing using your stats and how everything failed at the very end and the less probable scenario showed up, as I'm panamanian... Anyways you did an amazing job updating the chances of all the teams. Regards from Panama.