Since there's almost no way Honduras makes up its goal differential disadvantage against us or that Panama scores 5 goals against Costa Rica, I believe the scenarios for automatically qualifying are effectively as follows: 1. Win the next two and we're in. 2. Get 4 points in the next two matches, and then hope that... Honduras do not win their next two games (vs Mexico and Costa Rica) plus Panama does not beat Costa Rica. (If we beat Panama, then we could still get through on goal differential even if Panama beats Costa Rica). 3. Win vs. Panama and lose vs. T&T and then hope that... Honduras does not get more than 3 points from its last two games, plus Panama does not beat Costa Rica. 4. We draw both games and then hope that... Honduras does not win either of their two remaining games, plus Costa Rica beats Panama. Please correct me if I'm wrong. This is partly taken from here: https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018-concacaf-world-cup-qualifying-schedule-and-standings
I accidentally posted the wrong link in that post. I meant to post this: https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/09/07/how-usmnt-can-secure-top-three-finish-hexagonal
I''ll simplify it even more. If we do beat Panama, we sure manage to beat disinterested T&T. And no way Honduras gets 6 points. So 1 goal win, 5 goals win is all the same to me.
this is all correct with one small addendum. The US does not need to beat Panama on GD if they are tied on points. It is almost certain that the US will have the GF advantage over Panama which is the second tie breaker so all the US needs to do if level on points is make sure the GD is equal, which gives the US effectively another goal advantage that Panama has to make up (see my previous post about the scenario of the US getting 4 points and 3rd place for more info).
Maybe, but I don't think I have We didn't have more than 4 points because we didn't have Panama at home, T&T combo. I feel these are the easiest games by wide margin. But in any case we must beat Panama.
@Dr.Phil posted this in the pregame thread: Driling deeper: SPI chances for #USMNT to finish 3rd/4th in Hex, based on Friday result.U.S. currently 63% favorite in potential playoff. pic.twitter.com/aczGQFBZ5w— Paul Carr (@PaulCarr) October 3, 2017 Elo is somewhat more optimistic... 1-0 Win 2nd = 1% 3rd = 92% 4th = 6% 5th = 1% 1-1 Draw 3rd = 53% 4th = 41% 5th = 6% 0-1 Loss 4th = 84% 5th = 16% FYI, I have us at 65% vs. AFC at the moment.
What was the likelihood that we would, at the beginning of qualifying have 9 points going into the last two games? Pretty slim I would suggest.
Well, we sure made it a bit more difficult than I might have liked . . . Final: #USMNT 4, Panama 0U.S. now has a 93% chance to reach the World Cup, per SPI. pic.twitter.com/uAROJVNH6h— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 7, 2017
So here's what I got. 10,000 sims Win - Qualify 3rd Place = 74.39% Draw - Qualify 3rd = 17.06% Lose - Qualify 3rd = 4.78% .....Direct = 96.23% Loss - Fourth Place = 3.34% Beat AFC = 67.62% ....Russia through Playoff = 2.26% ....Eliminated through Playoff = 1.08% Loss and Eliminated = 0.43% Overall Elo has us as 98.5%. I did have to hit refresh a bunch of times, but I was able to get the draw and 4th place scenario to come up (though not in the above presentation). I'm pretty sure this ain't happening, but 1 in a about 3 or 4 million is probably the odds. In the scenario that this happened we drew T&T 1-1. Panama beat Costa Rica 9-1 to flip the GD.
Now that Costa Rica and Honduras tied, isn't there a scenario where the US ties and is eliminated? Tie places them on 13 points, and both Panama and Hondo are now on 10. So if they both win and flip the goal differential, US would be out. The odds of that are impossibly long, but it's possible in theory at least.
Theoretically yes. Honduras needs to make up 12 goal difference. In my sims 12 goals is the maximum I allow, so if I spend the next couple years hitting refresh, yep I would see it happen.
The sims are almost certainly misleading at this point because they can't reflect Costa Rica's (particularly) or mexico's strength in an away game where nothing is at stake. I'd say a panama victory is easily the most likely result given that Costa Rica just clinched on Saturday night in dramatic fashion. They will sleep walk through that game while panama knows they have a shot in front of the fans. Similarly, Honduras knows they just outplayed Costa Rica and that Mexico has nothing to play for. A win for Honduras is much more likely in practice than ElO might suggest. And road results in concacaf are always tough. The us could easily have a let down after getting so emotionally invested in the panama game. I'd say the odds of the US finishing 3rd at this point are less than 65%. And the odds of not making it at all close to 17%. Leaving the odds of managing fourth only around 18%.
Actually, I put it at closer to 40. But I'm a pessimist. Record last three times there is 1-1-1 with each of the non-draws decided by one goal.
That loss in 2008 was meaningless. We had already qualified for the Hex, while T&T still needed points. How meaningless? Donovan, Dempsey, Bradley, Bocanegra, Onyewu, Cherundulo, and Howard didn't even make the trip. Freddy Adu started, for Pete's sake.
I hear you. But no way odds of missing are that high. Forget PAN and HON. They can win at a higher rate, sure. I don't see us losing at a weak and getting weaker T&T. Elo has it roughly 75% win, 16.5% draw, 8.5% loss for us. I looked up one betting site which is a good addition to Elo. They have it roughly, win @ 69%, Draw @ 20%, Loss @11%. So even right there it's we qualify direct without even considering PAN & HON @ 89%. Personally, I think we are better than even Elo right now given T&T's current situation.
I just remembered this game. I think the most notable thing about it might be that it was Jozy's first competitive start for the national team.
I haven't done the math, but I think the non-geographical pots help us here. There is still something on the line for CR and MEX.
my fear is the current trend that we don't play well at home... something having to do with anxiety in front of the home crowd.
Trinidad and Tobago is worse now than the average of how they were when those games were played. They're FIFA Ranking of 99th is their third worst out of 278 months. The Intertops odds are about the same as the betting site you used with 67.0% for a win, 20.6% for a draw, and 12.5% for a loss. It adds up to 100.1% due to rounding. Intertops has us as bigger favorites than we were hosting Panama.