Seleção General Discussion, 2018 and beyond

So 2022 WCQ qualifying's draw came out, and it's a bit weird. In March 2020, there are only two matches (Brazil vs. Bolivia and Peru vs. Brazil). Then, two fixtures in September, October, and November each: vs Venezuela, at Uruguay, at Colombia, vs. Argentina, vs. Ecuador, at Paraguay. Venezuela is not the pushover it was, but Brazil should (and frankly, must) get those 3 home points before a two-match away sequence in Montevideo and (I assume) Barranquilla.

Brazil therefore must absolutely go into September with 6 points. Bolivia will bunker, and Peru is a solid but perfectly winnable opponent.

Looking at the entire qualifying schedule, the way the matches are scheduled, this may well be the most competitive and difficult CONMEBOL qualifying tournament ever.

 

On the bright side, Brazil is unbeaten. A draw can get us to Tokyo, if the earlier match is a draw as well: the match vs. Argentina will be the final one of the tournament (Sunday night) and Uruguay (1 point) vs. Colombia (2 points). Both can technically qualify so it'll be a very competitive match. A draw favors Brazil, but I don't think a draw will happen; should that be the case, Brazil will have to win, and Argentina, while now champions and qualified, would love to end the tournament by defeating Brazil and thus keeping us out of the Olympics.

If there's a time the team needs to step up, it's now.

It will be disappointing indeed given Brazil did a lot better early in the tournament. But because Brazil has already won Olympic gold, it won't be the end of the world. It would be an uncomfortable end to a three-peat of Olympic appearances (2008-2016).

2 teams? Well, it's been that way almost the entire history of the modern Olympics. The 16-team format started in 1960 and South American participation only started in 1924, when Uruguay alone represented the continent (and won gold). In 1928, Uruguay and Argentina represented South America, with Uruguay winning again.

There was no football tournament at the 1932 Olympics; in 1936, there were 18 teams and only Peru represented South America. In 1948, 18 teams and no South Americans, followed by 25 teams and only Brazil (quarterfinalist) in 1952.

South America was wholly absent in 1956.

Then, in 1960, the 16-team format became permanent (minus a 14-team format in 1964). Brazil was there most times, with Colombia, Argentina, and Uruguay; in more recent times, Paraguay and Chile got there as well.

Given that the Olympic tournament allows for only 16 teams, the organizers partition berths according to confederations. UEFA gets 5. Perhaps CONMEBOL deserves 3, but someone would lose a berth. The 2-berth format for CONMEBOL has been around for decades now - it's most probably not going to change.

Thus, if Brazil wants to make it 4 straight Olympics, it needs to get the job on Sunday, and it will be quite difficult.

 

The boys did it, and in impressive fashion. I got to watch bits and pieces of the first half and much of the second half, along with highlights. Brazil hit the woodwork twice (once in each half) and if one breakaway play had ended with the Brazilian player passing rather than being fominha, it would have been a certain goal. Brazil could have ended this match 5-0 or 6-0; it was that easy to manhandle Argentina.

With tonight's win, Brazil reaches its fourth consecutive Olympic tournament. Not bad, right? But it will be the 6th consecutive appearance in Olympic men's football for Australia, the 7th for Japan, and the 9th for South Korea!

The team ends this tournament undefeated, but with irregular play, and it now has a bit over 5 months to prepare. This is a talented team which needs better self-control and a more solid defense, but which is quite talented overall; I do see a few of these players in the senior national team in the next few years. Tite was in Colombia to observe the team earlier in the competition, and he needs to gradually get the very best of this U-23 squad into the senior team.

I do wonder who will be the 3 overage players chosen. If Neymar demonstrates consistent play plus leadership and maturity, there's no reason he shouldn't be one of them; in fact, with Neymar having turned 28 last week, 2020-2022 will make or break his career with the NT. This is prime time; he'll be nearing 31 when Qatar 2022 takes place, so if he wants to establish himself as a player who leaves his mark for the NT, what better way (other than winning the World Cup, of course) than contributing to a second Olympic gold medal?

I did feel bad for the Uruguayan team, which had earlier defeated Colombia 3-1 and would have reached Tokyo had Brazil not won. They were watching in the stands and looked quite dejected.

 

Indeed. Brazil played quite well. The 3-0 scoreline was conservative given the flow of play.

As for this summer, don't forget that before the Olympics, the Copa América will take place at the exact same time as the European Championship. So for example, on June 16, we will be able to watch France vs. Germany at the same time Argentina vs. Uruguay happens, and the former will start only one hour before the latter. And when the knockout rounds start, we will likely see confrontations between former winners of both tournaments (which will inevitably include former World Cup champions). The only time we get to see the best of both UEFA and CONMEBOL in live competition at the same time is during the World Cup, so this will be a first.

Do keep in mind though: unlike the the Copa América and the European Championship, the Olympic tournament is not a FIFA tournament and clubs are therefore not obligated to release players to participate. 12 years ago, Milan refused to release Kaká, who was then 26. Dunga's team could really have used him - the rest is history.

 

Do you say that because you think Brazil has enough quality to win the Olympic title without Neymar?

 

Good point. I doubt Tite will leave him out of the Copa América squad. We won last year's edition at home, so while it might be a bit disappointing not to win this year's, the ultimate goal is a team for the World Cup. The first WCQ matches will give us a clue as to what the NT will look like during the summer.

As for the Olympic squad, assuming it's a roster mostly or wholly separate from the Copa América, I wonder how good it will be. Again, the issue is always the best of the best from the youth divisions whom Tite might promote to the senior team and which may be excluded from the Olympics - or which are deemed fit enough to play 2 tournaments.