16 games to go. 5 points plus GD to make up. 11 wins and 2 draws gets us to 70. Will it be enough? Likely to come down to games against those above us. We have 4 at home, 3 away. Southampton with the easiest run in. Big 6 weeks ahead.
Yeh results didn't help today but after the fall that we had glad to still be genuinely alive for 4th. Honestly as impressed with Soton's win against Newcastle as I was for their win against Manure. To be able to come off the high of that win and travel to a difficult away ground and get the win was impressive. With 6 teams going for 2 spots going to be interesting.
Will This...will 70 be enough? I think it should be...and I keep thinking that S'oton is going to fall, but they keep on winning...all we can do is win the games we play...and yes, those against the teams above us become more important...but all of them are important at this point...we can't afford to lose to the Leicesters out there...
Next Four Games and my thoughts. 42 - Southampton 3rd, Swan, @QPR, WHam, LFC 40 - Man Utd 4th, Leic, @WHam, Burnley, @Swansea 39 - Arsenal 5th, AVilla, @Spurs, Leic, @CP 37 - Spurs 6th, @WBA, Arsenal, @LFC, WHam 36 - West Ham 7th, @LFC, ManU, @Soton, @spurs 35 - Liverpool 8th, WHam, @everton, Spurs, @Soton Soton have a very good sched with no Europe. They are looking good for a CL spot and are on the up. 10/12 Man U is another team with no Europe. Sched not bad but think Utd will drop points. Plus I hate them. 7/12 Arsenal has CL games and FA Cup. Big win v MCity. Favorable Schedule. 10/12 Spurs have Europa, League Cup, FA, etc. Tough sched, should drop points. 7/12 West Ham - just FA Cup but brutal next four games. Should drop points and go away. 3/12 Liverpool - Every damn commitment there is. Tough schedule too. Big Game v WHam. Should be favored in 3 of 4 though but derby games can go anywhere. Sturridge factor. 9/12 would be great. Have taken 13 from last 15 points which is best in top 8 tied with Soton. With 12 games left in season may look like this. Root for the others to drop points! 52 - Soton 49 - Arsenal 47 - ManU 44 - Liverpool on GD 44 - Spurs But then again what do I know. Haha
Huge Feb for us. If we can get wins against W-Ham, Spurs and Soton we'll be right in the mix. Need to take our chances better for that to happen. if we do... hang on. Also huge for Manure. Not playing great at the moment and with Rodgers no longer a viable sacking target LvG is the presses new pinata. They really should get 10 points from 12 as a minimum which would see them continue to solidify 4th, but anything less ratchets up the pressure big time. My favorite time of the year in the prem, cold weather, seasons old enough that it's come into focus, but still enough matches that anything is possible.
A bit of fixture congestion coming up - Jan 27 - Chelski Cap One Cup Jan 31 - West Ham Feb 2 - Bolton - FA Cup Replay Feb 7 - Everton Feb 10 - Tottenham Feb 19 - Besiktas Feb 22 - Southampton Feb 26 - Besiktas March 1 - Citeh March 4 - Burnley
That's good we can play the fringe players again and perhaps get another good replay. Not saying we shouldn't have won on Sat. But having watched the FA Cup for a couple of centuries now and the emotional response it garners from the lower tier clubs in Engerland, I wouldn't have bet against Bolton or have taken them lightly.
Soton H Swansea ManU H Leicester Arsenal H Villa Tottenham A West Brom Liverpool H West Ham Looks like pretty winable games for all of the teams. I would say the Spurs away and Liverpool home to WHam look like the banana skin games. Hopefully we can sort out West Ham. Spurs loss with a Reds win puts us in 6th. I have a weird feeling about Leic but either way we got to win our game. Go Reds!!
Next Four Games and my thoughts. 43- Man Utd 3rd, @WHam, Burnley, @Swansea, Sunderland 42 - Southampton 4th, @QPR, WHam, LFC, @WBA 42 - Arsenal 5th, @Spurs, Leic, @CP, Everton 40 - Spurs 6th, Arsenal, @LFC, WHam, Swansea 38 - Liverpool 7th, @Everton, Spurs, @Soton, ManC 5 teams with 2 spots realistically. It's the AWAY games week. It's tightening up. Big loss by Southampton who look shaky All of a sudden with two home loses in a row to CP(facup) and Swansea. No other points dropped. Puts LFC just 5 points from 3rd. Again LFC has another tough challenge in away derby game. Look most likely to drop points with the toughest away opponent with the obvious Spurs/Arsenal matchup. Everyone is away minus Spurs so this week is very key. Win and you can really make a move. For us a win and a draw in the London derby and we move to fifth. Steady progress. Have to take care of the bitters and keep the league momentum going. A tough four game run for us. Hopefully SAS is back and keeps rolling.
It's hard not to look at the other teams and try to figure out what "needs" to happen. Simple truth of it is that LFC needs to win - full stop! The only way we move up the table is to win our games.
Interesting to look back at our schedule since that Crystal Palace abortion in November and see that we've only lost 1 game in all competitions in regulation time. Going to need to keep our foot on the gas all the way to the finish line to make a realistic go of 3rd-4th plus Europa is going to need serious attention too since we can get in that way.
Yeah, can't rely on help from other teams. We tried that last season and we know how well that worked out.
Sunderland and Villa helped us out a lot last season. If only Sunderland's goalie would have held on at the Etihad
Or if only Lovren didn't score against us at Anfield. Man, he's just never done anything right for us, has he?
So done some math (no s), which is kind of scary for a History major. Looked at past seasons and decided 72 points would be a good target. Most years that's a higher point total than 5th earned so think it would give us a good shout at champions league. To get to 72 we need to average 2.3 points a match, which over a season would get us 87 points. So basically league leaders form but not an unheard of total. Or to make the math real simple we need to win 10 of our next 13 matches. On current form not impossible with a little luck.
So, learnt over the years that predicting where we will come in the league is a heart breaking experience. One game and one win at a time.
Southampton away is our next PL game (not until Feb 22)...Next up is at Palace (away) in the FA Cup...then Besiktas at Anfield... Crazy schedule...Win all three, start with Crystal Palace...