Road to Russia (Rumo à Rússia) 2018

Brazil,Germany,France, and Spain are the 4 top contenders.

 

They say that about Brazil all the time but when was the last time they've actually won? 2002.

What i meant was that Portugal is in the second bracket of teams to win, not the first. So we agree with each other there.

I don't think being in that second bracket is as bad as it once was. In fact, i'd rather be there.

 

Renato’s fall from grace would be more impactful if we didn’t have such a large amount of top quality youth developing. It would be great if he finds his way again, but his development is very insignificant to Portugal’s chances in the near future.

Just look at some of the young guys left off of this squad like Rony, Bruma, Semedo etc. We’re set up already for years that come. And we knew it too. Talk of a new golden generation is coming to fruition.

The title came early. Destiny for all the near misses. Destiny for the fact that the greatest of all Portuguese players, the king, had his very best years smack dab in the middle of these two amazing generations of footballers.

 

I agree, the squad is a lot stronger than 2016. The Under-21 Euro finalist players are now senior player. So much quality, that some perfectly great players such as joão Cancelo, André Gomes, Bruma, Rony Lopes had to be left out, had it been 2010 they would have been undisputed starters. I think that Portugal is a hidden gem about to be unveiled, and across the world many will not like it.

 

That was a great warm-up game. Great to not having to rely on CR7 for everything. Bernardo Silva is a beast. Moutinho had a heck of a game, still a feisty little guy who never gives up. Love that rotten apple

That Algerian goalie must of caught an elbow from Sergio Ramos before the game, he kept fumbling the ball.

 

I think the top 4 teams are obvious: France, Germany, Spain and Brazil (about in that order IMO). They are the top teams b/c of top to bottom talent, depth of bench and experience winning this thing - critical to win this tournament.
We belong in the next tier of teams: Argentina, Portugal, Belgium, and maybe Uruguay. All strong teams with >1 star player. But not quite as deep as the top tier teams and with possible holes.
England is actually better than usual - they are not quite as over-rated as usual. They have some a stronger/younger cast than usual.
We are actually flying under the radar mostly b/c pundits assume we are a one-man team and don't really understand how strong some of our young players are. This bodes well. And we have a great mix of experience + youth on the team, depth in MF (one of the main reasons we won the Euro IMO), a very good coach and the confidence of knowing that we can win the whole thing, which is huge. But let's not get in over ourselves. Lots of question marks. Guedes and Bernardo Silva are very good players but they are also young and have limited experience playing on the NT. Guedes had an explosive start at Valencia but then quieted down as the season progressed. B Silva was never a regular starter for ManCity. B. Fernandes has hardly ever played on the NT. So, that's quite a bit of unknowns - if Guedes and Bernardo Silva gel with Ronaldo and catch fire we could go deep. But they could also fizzle - today is just one game against a weak team. Most importantly we are hugely dependent on 2 aging players: Ronaldo and Pepe - whose post-30 bodies are going to put to the test in recovering from the frequent matches of this tournament. If we lose either of them (or Guerreiro who is probably not 100% yet) the plunge in quality is huge. France, Germany and Spain don't really depend on any one player.

 

Here's the "fancy" study that Q_Eagle alluded to:

http://www.espn.com/soccer/blog/fiv...-to-win-world-cup-2018-ahead-of-spain-germany

Brazil = 20.8 percent
Spain = 15.9 percent
Germany = 10.9 percent
Argentina = 7.0 percent
France = 6.0 percent
Belgium = 5.7 percent
Portugal = 5.4 percent
England = 4.9 percent

Not a huge surprise except perhaps over-rating Brazil and under-rating France.

 

Bravo, bravo! The perfect way to go into the WC.

Netherlands game terrified me. Tunisia was decent first half. Belgium was promising, simply lacking in the finishing. Today was great.

Rui Patricio - Wish he got tested more. Worried a bit about where he is psychologically. He did have a nice save or two though. Definite starter.

Cedric - This guy just plays great for us. Not too offensive but provides just enough to help out. Could see Ricardo Pereira coming in for more offensive lineup, but Cedric to start vs Spain.

Pepe - Pepe is Pepe.

Bruno Alves - Unfortunately this game did not help out the CB pairing decision. There was little if any challenges here. Could see Fonte here vs Spain just because of experience.

Raphael Guerreiro- Much, much better. Was a bit worried about his form after a long injured season. Look for Guerreiro to impact this team immensely.

William - This guy is on fire. Couldn’t be a better time for him to hit this form. One of the first names on the teamsheet.

Moutinho - I was never a huge Moutinho fan, but he gets the job done. He’s like a little pest in the middle with the ability to spread the field. So tough to decide whether or not I’d start him vs Spain. Adrien is a bit more destructive to interupt the rhythm of Iniesta and Isco. Definitely a toss up.

Bruno Fernandes - I was crying about this kid not getting minutes against Tunisia. I was crying about him only getting <5 min vs Belgium. My god did he change our style. I have very, very high hopes for Bruno. Hoping Santos’ defensive mindset doesn’t keep Bruno on the bench. I wouldn’t want to pick between this kid and Joao Mario thats for sure.

Bernardo - Great assist for Guedes’ goal, but I want to see more from Bernardo. He’s too in and out of games. Between him, Bruno/JMario/Guedes, they should be the ones grabbing the game by the balls and providing for CR, in an Isco/Asensio sense. Bernardo will for sure be starting but unless he consistently creates, can see him being one of the first ones off for RQ, Gelson, etc.

CR - Glad to see him back. Should see a hungry CR being that this will be his last WC.

Guedes - Can’t decide who I loved more between Goncalo or Bruno. Another one that gives a different dimension. His direct, nonstop running is fantastic. Like someone said above, its almost as if he hasn’t learned to run with his pace yet. He stumbles a bit, like a horse that doesn’t realize he already crossed the finish line. As long as CR is with us, I’m sorry Andre but the number 9 spot is taken. We need a do-it-all player like Guedes. Would much rather pace vs Pique rather than stationary, target man.

BUT! This was an Algeria team going through a lot of issues. They lost to Cabo Verde, that says enough. Hoping Fernando Santos kept the confidence at a reasonable level.

My 11 vs Spain
———————Patricio—————————
Cedric——Pepe———Fonte——Guerreiro
—————Adrien——William——————
Bernardo———B. Fernandes———Guedes
————————--CR—————————

 

CR7 has said he wants one more WC after this unless he is not the same.

One more WC looks a bit cloudy for him i'd agree, but being on the verge of another Balon d'or at age 33 is really insane. Where were the other greats at this stage of their careers? Declining.

 

That was the best soccer we've ever played under Fernando Santos. The youthfull options we have now compared to two years ago is a MASSIVE upgrade on our squad. Guedes despite not being a natural in that position is talented workhorse who can also drift to either wing and close down players without the ball.

Bruno Fernandes is such a cultured midfielder, great passing range, skill, and a cerebral capacity to think the game better than most. William is fit and refreshed, and Gurreiro is rounding into decent form and should grow game by game throughout the tournament. Bernardo wasnt as influential today compared to the Belgium match but imho he's our most important player in terms of creativity and I hope he's saving himself for the Spain match to really standout amongst that Spanish midfield.

Moutinho is in far greater form compared to two years ago.

Cedric is a workhorse in terms of hussle and workrate, but he's such a blackhole offensively that it blows my mind..all our danger came from the left because of this...Ricardo is so much better, and I doubt he is worse defensively. I would have called Semedo to battle with Cedric for that spot and shift Ricardo to backup Gurreiro on the left as Mario Rui has done ZERO to show any sort of quality.

We have some really great battles in terms of determining who should start:

Guedes vs Andre Silva

Adrien Silva vs Moutinho

Bruno Fernandes vs Joao Mario (who has looked good as well, and is one of our best players based on pure talent)

Ricardo vs Cedric

We have great options off the bench, and this without factoring in Gelson/Quaresma/Dias.

My only concern is defensive solidity if we sit back and absorb pressure like we did in the Euros, Pepe is two years older and isnt the pure world class beast he was in terms of speed, reading of the game, athleticism, strength, timing of the tackle etc. Fonte isnt as good as well.

 

We have the same eyes. Been saying the same thing about Cedric and what we should do at the position.

I think Santos is pissed off at Ricardo because of the defensive mistakes he's made in the opportunities he's been given. Making defensive mistakes seems to put you on Santos' S**T LIST.

That is my concern as well. I was not happy with how we played against Chile at the Confederations Cup in extra time where we sat back and absorbed pressure and did an awful job of doing it. Chile should have won in extra time, we got lucky it went to penalties.

Time will tell if we can still absorb pressure. We face Spain in our first match. It will tell us an awful lot of our chances in this tournament.

 

The way people are underrating us is terrific. Everyone over here in England seems to think that we will flop, because there's still the stigma that we are a one man team. I just laugh it off and say just you wait until the tournament.

Our squad is better than the one for the euros, we have greater flexibility and options going forward.

I expect a conservative, tried and tested midfield against Spain of:

William
B.Silva - Adrien - Mario

But i believe especially after todays performance we will see Bruno Fernandes start against morocco and iran (what a player he is by the way).

I'm genuinely so confident that we can win this whole tournament