Revs 2016 Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'New England Revolution' started by patfan1, Feb 23, 2016.

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How many points will the 2016 Revs have?

Poll closed Mar 6, 2016.
  1. Less than 30

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 31-35

    5.1%
  3. 36-40

    2.6%
  4. 41-45

    25.6%
  5. 46-50

    38.5%
  6. 51-55

    20.5%
  7. 56-60

    7.7%
  8. More than 60

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Minutemanii

    Minutemanii Member+

    Dec 29, 2005
    Abington MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fully aware of all those check boxes, that you've wonderfully and so correctly listed, Sir, but we still need a pedigreed striker. I know our roster is not full and I know we still haven't found one. So, if they do nothing in the summer transfer window, then we'll have our answer, once again, of how they fall one increment short each time. Now, tell, me.... have you ever had that dreadful feeling in any one of our 5 cup failures that one more player might have put us over the top?
     
    Jon Martin repped this.
  2. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course, the point is that they don't use all their resources. You can have 3 DPs, we have one. We've got a lot of allocation money stocked away, I believe. Gaining more with the JJ trade. They eventually used their Sporting partnership to get a player from their B team. Etc, etc, etc.

    They can and should be doing more.
     
  3. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A player that didn't even make the 18 yesterday.

    Neither did the top 5 pick (AKA: nice magic bean) that we got for Parkhurst.
     
  4. rkupp

    rkupp Member+

    Jan 3, 2001
    For 2 of the finals against LA, I felt we were serious underdogs, so that one more player would have had to have been a significant one (at least, that would have been my thought going in). In 2 games against Houston, I thought we had the talent to win, but just didn't execute (players and coach) on the day.
     
  5. KapeGuy

    KapeGuy Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    Cape Cod
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've never thought the "one more player" refrain made any sense. You can't make the team 2% or 5% better and then say, Okay, now our close loss would be a win. That just ain't how it works.

    You can't put the extra player on the field as a 12 th man, so that "one more player" would not have made any difference unless it was someone who could have beaten out one of the first xi, or maybe someone who could have beaten out one of the subs. So it would have had to have been a significantly better player than what we had on the roster.

    You can argue that they should have found some significantly better players, but that's different than arguing that just using that last spot would have put us over the top.
     
    Revs in 2010 repped this.
  6. VTSoccerFan

    VTSoccerFan Member+

    New England Revolution, Vermont Catamounts, NCFC
    United States
    Jun 28, 2002
    Cary, NC
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Having more quality players over the course of a season allows a coach to distribute the minutes better, still pick up most of the points they would have picked up, and be fresher for the playoffs.

    In any one game in the middle of the season does it a big difference? Maybe not, but over the course of a season it can make a difference when the one game that matters is after the other 38 or so games.
     
    ToMhIlL repped this.
  7. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    in 2002 and 2014 we were underdogs, no doubt. In 2005, we were the better team, but we just didn't play like it. We stopped doing the things than made us successful and got all conservative and bunkery. Then Pando-Freakin-Ramirez...

    The two cups against Houston were more evenly matched, although most pundits were giving them the edge in 2007.
    The "One More Player" theory would have made a hell of a difference the year we lost in the final (2005, I think) where we had 14 players on the whole team who had played more than 200 minutes in the entire season. The excuse given by some as to why we lost to a team who barely squeaked into the playoffs (while we had the second-best record in the league) was that we were "tired." Now if they had one player, not even a star, but a guy who was good enough to start a couple of games here and there when we had a Sat-Wed-Sat schedule, a guy who could have been used as a tactical sub, a guy who could have given rest to some of those guys who were "tired" it might have made the difference.

    Oh yeah, we had open roster spots and cap room at the time too.
     
  8. KapeGuy

    KapeGuy Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    Cape Cod
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Okay, I wasn't following closely in 2005 and I don't remember anyone saying they were tired -- but I certainly could have missed that. I do remember a year when they used 14 players but I thought it was more recent (2007?), and again I don't remember anyone -- management or players -- using "tired" as an excuse.
     
  9. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It was '07.
     
    Crooked and ToMhIlL repped this.
  10. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks, Monty, it was 2007. Looking at that link, it's mind-blowing that after the 13 outfield players the next guys were Gary Flood and Joe Franchino. Flood was dismissed from the team early in the year for getting drunk at a Red Sox-Yankees game (he's from Lawn Guyin) and getting into it with fans. Franchino (who was also involved) was suspended for "personal reasons" and while still with the team, didn't play for the rest of the year. None of those other guys on the roster played any significant minutes at all.

    And by mid-summer, several decent, rank-and-file MLS players (Todd Dunivant, who later got capped, was one IIRC) were traded within the league. Why couldn't the Revs have picked up someone who could at least play?
     
  11. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Was that the year that Heaps came out and said he was OK with the team not doing much during the window because they "didn't want to ruin the chemistry?"
     
  12. KapeGuy

    KapeGuy Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    Cape Cod
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Heaps was a player not a coach in 2007, so I doubt he was talking about roster building then.
     
  13. A Casual Fan

    A Casual Fan Member+

    Mar 22, 2000
    The better way to think of the "best use of the available roster spots" issue is to consider that Revs aren't maximizing their use of the "difference maker" slots at the TOP of the roster. i.e., the very same type of players that most here agree would put them over the top.

    Instead of arguing about unused roster slots as being reserved for practice fodder players -- the frame of reference should be that those unused roster slots should, each season, be filled with one or two or three "difference makers" with potential to impose their will on a game (i.e., MLS Best Eleven (or even Best TwentyTwo) equivalent).

    There are a few metrics to support this. Consider each of the recent seasons, and how many of each/any of these did the Revs have on their roster:
    - MLS Top Eleven players, or
    - legitimate Nats players, or
    - MLS All Stars, or
    - MLS MVP/nominees, or
    - Other MLS Awards (Golden Boot, Defender/Rookie/Newcomer, etc.), or
    - or even the subjective "real DP" (i.e., needle mover" to use Revs own words)
    - etc. ​

    It has really been about a decade since the Revs have carried enough "difference maker" players at the top of the roster to regularly have at least one or two in the running for any of these on a regular annual basis. Most recent years, Revs have been at zero, with the occasional one-off occurrence. (JoGo Def of Yr, Tierney AllStar coach choice, Lee MVP nominee, 1 yr JJ DP)

    If you evaluate it this way (which has nothing to do with how much is spent on salaries, just has to do with the overall roster quality independent of spend), then the number of "difference making" rosters slots that have gone unfilled by Revs in many recent seasons is a depressing/alarming/concerning pattern - if you care about winning it all.

    Having players like this on your roster usually requires carrying players with, relatively speaking, higher salaries. I know the Revs are carving our a specialty in the "steals and deals" mid-tier range, but they need to strive to make a real mark at the top end if they actually want to win it all, as opposed to wanting to win to be "just good enough" for whatever.
     
    rkupp, BERich, Crooked and 1 other person repped this.
  14. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Um ... thanks, I think? I do happen to know Heaps was a player back then. I said nothing about him being a coach or a roster builder.

    He was asked by FDA (maybe?) and was quoted in an article at one point either that season or in that time frame about the lack of moves and that was his answer. The answer was mocked here pretty strongly. It's the same question that's asked in other sports (especially baseball) in the U.S. when a team doesn't make roster moves and quite a few players do speak up about it (for or against).
     
    Crooked repped this.
  15. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Correct. I'd rather have the guys that are going to wind up being 24-25 on our roster actually be 26-27 (28?), because you've got better players in the Top 15 now available to you on your roster.
     
  16. RevsLiverpool

    RevsLiverpool Member+

    Nov 12, 2005
    Boston
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #66 RevsLiverpool, Mar 8, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2016
    2007 was also the cup final we were leading at half time off a 20' Twellman header then somehow let them back in it and collapsed in the second half. Ngwenya had the scrappy goal to tie it (but what has he done since? He is a Pittsburgh Riverhound these days), then DeRo with the winner. DeRo at that time was without a doubt class of the league's strikers. He was a game changer for sure, though Twellman was even better.

    While the revs of course lost, I remember Ginger was denied a sure equaliser late, right on the doorstep by a great reaction save by Onstad who played out of his mind, IIRC.

    I've blocked out most of the other details but without a refresher, would characterize '07 as one of those "them's the breaks" finals losses rather than "what if we had another game changer?" IMO. We had Twellman, Ralston, Parkhurst, Larentowicz and Joseph plus Reis in goal. That is enough talent to win a MLS Cup if tactics are managed properly. Houston was without Ching and Clark on the day. They were there for the taking, even with DeRo.

    It could have gone either way, just didn't go our way.
     
  17. KapeGuy

    KapeGuy Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    Cape Cod
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Really? That "chemistry" quote that is mocked so often here came from a player? I always assumed it came from someone in management. And again, I'd be really surprised if a player (Heaps in 2007) was commenting on the lack of movement on the roster, but if you say so . . .
     
  18. KapeGuy

    KapeGuy Member+

    Mar 21, 2010
    Cape Cod
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well yeah. How could anyone argue with the idea that if you can improve the players in the top 15 you have improved the team. I'm a huge KAD and I agree with that.
     
  19. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It was from Heaps during our "glory days."
    But that's the point. When people keep bringing up that players 2X to the end of the roster don't play, we get that. We'd just like to see them get better players at the top of the roster, push the others further down, let them develop as loanees or USOC games. No one here is saying bring in a 26th player on the roster who will ... well, be player 26.
     
  20. Revs in 2010

    Revs in 2010 Member+

    Feb 29, 2000
    Roanoke, VA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wasn't Flood dismissed for the peeing in public thing? Same event, at a Sawx game.
     
  21. RevsLiverpool

    RevsLiverpool Member+

    Nov 12, 2005
    Boston
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #71 RevsLiverpool, Mar 13, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2016
    Well I can't vote in the poll as I came too late to the party and realize we are 2 games in, but wanted to make my prediction anyway.

    My prediction is the revs will finish the 2016 regular season with 54 points, good for second in the East.

    I see the revs having a surprisingly solid campaign with fewer seesaw periods of results than the past couple years. While some games will be decided -good or bad- by a moment of individual brilliance, an unstoppable free kick, a lost mark, etc, our midfield will largely dictate how the season goes in terms of results. If we allow free runners like in Houston there will be dropped points. If we close down passing lanes, press high and generate opportunities like yesterday, there will be points gained. We need to be more clinical in the final third, but I am cautiously optimistic overall (as long as Rowe isn't 1v1 with an opposing keeper).

    While optimistic for the regular season, this is tempered by my expectation of another disappointing USOC run that ends too early.

    The revs will make a decent playoff run to the conference final where they will lose on a late penalty that is an indisputably bad call, a harsh reminder of the fallibility of MLS refs.

    Excited to see how accurate my magic 8 ball really is! :D
     
  22. TheLostUniversity

    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Feb 4, 2007
    Greater Boston
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    "You may rely on it--Don't count on it"........;)
     
    RevsLiverpool repped this.
  23. Feldspar

    Feldspar Member+

    Nov 19, 1998
    Boston, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I know there's a long way to go, and the Revs are a streaky side. But given the first three results, my 31-35 point prediction seems wholly reasonable now....
     
  24. rkupp

    rkupp Member+

    Jan 3, 2001
    The first 5-6 games are almost never a good indicator of the kind of season they will have. For whatever reasons, they almost always start off slow.
     
  25. Feldspar

    Feldspar Member+

    Nov 19, 1998
    Boston, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, there's plenty of time, and we did had similar results in the first three games of the last couple years. But it's inauspicious....
     

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