They were the best team in England - not in Europe. And the so far the 2 group stage games have shown they still can be had in Europe.
Were they the best in Europe? We beat them 3 out of 4 times. At the time of posting they had already lost a game at home in CL and have never made a final. I get statistically and from a modeling standpoint point they should be highly rated but I think is a case of showing the limitations of these models if they are considered to have the highest probability of winning.
I guess these things are fun and kinda interesting ... but .... the fact that Manure have dropped so many "expected points" highlights the weakness of this kind of analysis. there are simply way too many variables, eg look at Spurs right now - 6 starters injured for the next 2 weeks - how the hell can that kind of thing be predicted? or, red card to a key player keeping them out of key games?
I think they were the best in Europe last season. The fact that we beat them 3 times just shows how good we are when at our best. If we didn’t knock them out, they would have won. If Salah didn’t get hurt and Karius didn’t get concussed, we would have won it. Who would you have as favorites then? Even Barcelona who everyone was drooling over today had 3 bad results in a row prior to that.
I'd be very very surprised to see Cardiff get above 20 points, haha. Very interested to see how this changes if we beat citeh this weekend.
anybody have the stats on penalties for/against at Anfield over the last couple of seasons? certainly feels as though we're behind in that area.
I believe last year we got zero penalties at Anfield or 1. Something comical because the joke was that Spurs got more penalties in one game than we got all season.
Okay. I took at peek at our last 10. If we can be still in it by then we have every chance. Our run in is really kind (Ev, Burn, Fulham, Spurs, Soton, Chelsea, Cardiff, Hud, New, Wolves), but City's isn't too hateful either. Hopefully Leicester still has something to play for at the end of the season. They go to the Etihad second last game and have Chelsea at home in the last game.
Neither of these statements are based on much... don't get me wrong, I did have City doing better in CL this season, but they haven't exactly shown it yet have they? But either way, I certainly don't know how they were the "best" in Europe last year when they were soundly beaten by Liverpool, who were very clearly also not the best in Europe and required an insanely lucky group, very lucky draws, other massive clubs losing, etc.
... finally for this burst of charts, here's how the Premier League is currently looking.Man City exactly where you'd expect, with Chelsea and Liverpool not too far away. Arsenal's finishing has been clinical ... Southampton's and Huddersfield's hasn't.https://t.co/tc1jI6qeYf pic.twitter.com/laKAbQK0ZL— Ben Mayhew (@experimental361) November 12, 2018
Sam's favorite same team comparison. Looking at results against the same (or equivalent) opponents so far this season, Manchester United have suffered the biggest decline. United have taken 8 points fewer from the 12 fixtures played so far than they did in 2017/2018.#MUFC pic.twitter.com/9gz06tqV99— Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) November 12, 2018
Gleave subs-in promoted teams for demoted teams i.e. in his analysis Wolves = Swansea, Cardiff = Stoke, and Fulham = West Brom. nothing wrong with that per se (I used to do the same thing) but it is somewhat random so these days I ignore the games against promoted teams completely. thanks for posting this, dcc (I don't use Twitter)
I'm intrigued to see the chart for us - good defense - i.e. few chances allowed, but also much fewer shots taken than City and Chelski. It fits with the narrative/idea that we haven't clicked yet offensively and in many games we have throttled back after taking a 2-0 lead instead of chasing more goals. I'm not surprised City have few shot conceded too - as they have the ball all game long (and no one wants to attack them - wimps).
Considering how many points we dropped against them last year, finding some way to account for improvement in those games would be beneficial.
The level of analysis at the club is wild. 1062749340110852097 is not a valid tweet id 1062750425261187074 is not a valid tweet id
So at some point when everyone adopts the stats based uber analysis of games and players - does that level the playing field? Or does the managers tactics still trump the stats to a degree. I can't ever see it working in soccer in europe the same way it worked in baseball in the US because money seems to be the great barrier that most lower teams can't overcome (once in a long long while you will get a Leeeechester) when buying the upper tier players. Especially with no salary cap. Whereas in baseball several small market teams seem to be competitive and also seem to win every handful of years. Or maybe it's impossible to compare the two sports. I have no idea. It is all very interesting - it all seems to lead to the idea that hidden gems will be harder and harder than ever to find. Maybe a late bloomer will be an outlier here and there - but talent identification seems to be occurring earlier and earlier.
Ironically almost 1 full year before we signed him one of the Anfield Wrap guys was championing him based of certain stats he had seen!
https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...league-analysing-when-teams-score-their-goals when do teams usually score / concede.
"Liverpool are an interesting case too, though their struggle to finish matches as strongly as they start them has been apparent for some time. Their goal difference of +3 in the final 30 minutes is not bad by any stretch, but it’s a big drop off from the +9 they boast in the middle third of games – and a long way from how Chelsea and Manchester City are finishing games. Jürgen Klopp will need to find a way to bridge this gap if Liverpool are to have any chance of a title tilt. But, in truth, Pep Guardiola’s side are a class apart." I think this is wrong - this year we are being purposefully pragmatic. Fulham is a great example of not pushing for another goal.