This thread is all about attempting to evaluate our national team performance this cycle by looking at matches against teams of comparable quality to ours. Predictably, our record against elite opposition has demonstrated that we're not near that category yet. Similarly, we have been as dominant against lesser sides as you would expect. But, when fielding representative sides, our record against teams of comparable quality has been surprisingly good this cycle. And for that, you have to give a lot of credit to our players and coaches. Here, I've listed our results this cycle against teams outside of the elite category (Brazil, Spain, England, Italy, Germany, Argentina, the Netherlands), but within the world rankings range that even the most pessimistic of us have tended to place the United States, which would be top 40. I'm going by Elo rankings (listed in parentheses) heading into the matches. I also only listed matches where the US (and its opposition, if we got a result) fielded a representative side - i.e. started at least half of its regular first choice starters at the time. (I used a combination of common sense and lineups from the nearest competitive fixtures and friendlies to figure this out.) This rules out most winter friendlies, Copa America, Gold Cup '09, and our recent friendly against the Czech Republic. 2007 Mexico (20) - W Ecuador (31) - W Mexico (16) - W @ Sweden (18) - L @ Switzerland (14) - W 2008 Mexico (12) - D @ Poland (19) - W 2009 Mexico (15) - W @ Costa Rica (31) - L Honduras (34) - W Egypt (31) - W @ Mexico (11) - L @ Honduras (29) - W @ Denmark (22) - L 2010 Turkey (17) - W Australia (18) - W Record against Top 40 teams: 11-4-1* (Away: 4-4-0) Record against Top 30 teams: 8-3-1 (Away: 3-3-0) Record against Top 20 teams: 7-2-1 (Away: 2-2-0) *If you want to include results against World Cup sides that fell outside of the Elo Top 40 range, then you should include a win against South Africa and a loss against Slovakia (although both the Denmark and Slovakia results came from borderline unrepresentative sides).
These results are the main reason why I unscientifically feel we deserve a ranking in the mid/high teens. We clearly aren't in the elite category (though like most good teams, it's not a shocker if we steal a result against one of them on the day). But against other good teams who aren't elite either, our record is very good, well above 50/50, and many of these results are not at home but on the road or in neutral venues, some of them in tournaments. Against the top 40/30/20 we're even with them on the road and dominant against them at home. (That's a pretty good indication that we're better than most.) Of course it's all down to how you do on the day, and at the moment I'm pretty enthused by our attack, and very worried by our defense...
We're very solid now. Realistically at the top of the tier below Spain, Brazil, England, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France and Portugal. That's why even the people on this board who say we're something like 35th will be disappointed if we can't get out of our group. But our track record proves that, if you're outside of the top ten in the world, we'll probably beat you. Edit: When I include old or underperforming teams like Italy, France, and Portugal, it's because I'm referring to their historical footballing success.
I figured this might be a good time to bump this thread, since our Round of 16 opponent and both potential quarterfinals opponents (if we're lucky enough to make it that far) fall into this top 40 category.
That we have a 50/50 record against teams of similar quality to Ghana? I'm worried to know what you were thinking previously.