NO Saint Louis, no San Diego, move Detroit down in the list. 1. Sacramento 2. Nashville 3. Detroit 4. Cincinnati Time to move strong on SEC country. I still remember a few years back Chattanooga drawing 20K for a freakin' 4th division championship game!
Using this thread as an unscientific poll, this is the top 4 based on the posting history of the past 2 months. Miami then... 25 & 26: Sac - 4 votes Detroit - 3 votes Cincy - 2 votes Nashville - 2 votes Phoenix - 1 vote 27 & 28: Nashville - 4 votes Cincy - 2 votes Charlotte/Raleigh - 2 votes Detroit - 2 votes Phoenix - 1 vote Sac - 1 vote
I don't think anyone has a clue as to 27/28. Once 25/26 is decided, then the calculus changes. They're not picking four this year. The only thing that really matters, as best I can tell, is this year. Because the teams picked this year will have an impact on the jockeying for next year. And what the remaining ten markets will have is another 15 months to get things working in their favor. I'm guessing there'll be some interesting bond/financing measures next November that could really impact the race for 27/28. If I were to pick 25/26 today, I'd say Sac has it in the bag, and Detroit is probably their littermate. But a lot can happen in even just three months.
That's generally how I see it as well. Sacramento and Detroit get the nod for #25/26 and it becomes a different horse race for the final two, with extra time to get stadium deals and financing worked-out. That's why I think St. Louis could end up back in the mix. If I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Sac, Detroit, Phoenix, and St. Louis. If St. Louis STILL can't get the financing worked out, even with the extra year, then San Diego takes their place. We're moving into a phase of MLS growth where they need to significantly drive-up the value of the TV contract prior to negotiating the new deal in 2023. Ticket sales are already very respectable league-wide and most stadiums have restricted capacity where it can't go much higher. Therefore, TV revenue is, BY FAR, the most important component of future league growth. It will affect the salary cap, the number of DNPs, the amount of allocation money, as well as investments in stadiums, training facilities, and development academies. And it will raise the profile of the league. So, upon being presented with this critical opportunity to define their national footprint for the next decade, I just can't see MLS taking a pass on some of the largest remaining media markets in favor of small ones. By the way, rather than awarding an expansion franchise to a city like Nashville, why not move a struggling franchise there (i.e. Columbus perhaps)? Can't move Columbus to Cincy because Cincy already has a thriving USL franchise that is bidding for expansion of their own. But Nashville has no current franchise, yet could provide a team like Columbus with a very enthusiastic new fan base, a growing new market, and even a new stadium.
I actually disagree. In fact, MLS might be lucky not to be 5 or 10 years ahead of where it is now. If ESPN collapses (or contracts) if it turns out the current round of massive TV contracts turn out to be ruinous as the viewing market fractures and advertising continues to splinter, then not having built a larger amount of TV money into team budgets/player payroll might just be a godsend. I think national sponsorships might be worth more than TV revenues, but those back your point. Detroit is worth far more than Raleigh and Phoenix is worth far more than Cincinnati.
And MLS teams have a much larger barrier against relocation than the big four sports leagues with the teams putting down deep roots with academy systems. I would expect any expansion bid winners (from teams that don't already exist in NASL/USL) to immediately look to starting academy systems and getting the pipeline going. I'm sure NCFC is well aware that Sporting Kansas City has signed to North Carolina raised players to "homegrown" contracts in the last couple of months.
I think a possible idea for ATL would be to partner with Chattanooga. ATL owns and runs the team. It's a short commute from ATL to Chatt. Rather than put an MLS team in Chatt, put ATL's USL team there, but the team lives in ATL and trains in ATL at the Marietta complex. Busing up for home games is a short drive so Chatt gets their own pro team, ATL gets their USL team and the USL team gets to be at same training complex as the 1st team. Chatt can obviously support the team really well. Win-win-win!
Disagree with this, kinda (my disclaimer ) Having some experience with youth comp soccer (including academy level/USDA), the barrier you refer to is a lot more variable than you think. A team needing to relocate likely is on the lower end of the "youth development game", so they're not leaving much, and either way, setting up a youth system shop in a new city is not that hard. Using Columbus as an example, moving to Cincy is easy. They literally could keep the set up in CLB, and either partner, poach or take over the top level clubs in CINCY. If CLB moved to PHX, they could still keep the CLB DA team, or just partner with the local clubs as a satellite feeder. Again, once they're in PHX, they'll either set up their own DA and poach players, partner with existing DA clubs, or buy them out. Bottom line, if, and I say IF, a cub needs to relocate, the financial reasons necessitating the move will not be outweighed by a DA set up.
I really don't see Columbus as a struggling team. They draw well when the Crew is having a good season and they don't draw well when the Crew is having a bad season. Adding Cincinnati as a local rival would probably pump up attendance for both teams.
I hear you on the proximity and co-use of the Marrietta training facility. That idea certainly sounds good but there are practical realities that make it difficult. First, Chattanooga FC already exists, albeit in the 4th-tier NPSL. So, you'd have to be awarded a USL expansion franchise to establish a competing club in that city, which is certainly not a given. Either that or buy Chattanooga FC from whoever owns them now and try to elevate the club to USL. For now, ATL UTD has established a partnership with the Charleston Battery of the USL. Apparently that relationship is just an annual renewal, so I suppose the door is open to do something different in the future. But it has benefited both clubs so far as ATL has loaned a number of players to Charleston to ensure they get plenty of PT in professional competition, whereas Charleston benefits from the infusion of talent. Nashville is starting a USL team next year, so if they don't win their MLS expansion bid, they'd make a good partner for someone as well. Sadly, the Atlanta Silverbacks (formerly the Atlanta Ruckus) have fallen all the way to the NPSL which is a 4th-tier league. Otherwise, that partnership would have made even more sense.
I tend to agree with this. It would be great if we get to a point where clubs can invest millions in developmental academies but that's just not where we are today. In fact, we have a pay-to-play model. So, re-establishing a developmental academy in a new city, where the participants themselves bear most of the cost, is not a major barrier to re-location. I could see a "struggling" MLS club moving to a city that tries, but fails, to land a MLS expansion club, especially if they are a market that doesn't already have a thriving USL team (i.e. Nashville - they start USL play next year).
we don't need but four after Miami, right? Mine are: Sac Republic FC Tampa Bay Rowdies FC Cincinnati Indy Eleven
At some point, the league will go to 32. The size of the country dictates this and the size of the competing sports leagues means we need a full national footprint. 16 teams in the west, 16 teams in the east. West 1 Vancouver 2 Seatte 3. Portland 4 Sacramento-- no brainer, they are almost doing site prep for a stadium 5 San Jose 6 LA Galaxy 7 LAFC 8 Real SL 9 Colorado 10 San Antonio- either here or maybe Oklahoma City if you think you have too many teams in TX 11 Houston 12 Dallas 13 KC 14 Minny 15 St Louis- Got to hope this traditional soccer city can figure it out 16 Chicago East 1. Toronto 2 Montreal 3 Boston - one can dream of new SSS and maybe a new owner 4 NYRB 5 NYFC 6 Phili 7 DC 8 North Carolina- downtown Raleigh , not Charlotte. Fills big map gap between DC & ATL 9 Atlanta 10 Orlando 11 Miami- come on now 12 Chicago 13 Columbus- need a push on the downtown stadium, otherwise bring up Cincy 14 Detroit- city being reborn, nice map gap/rivals in Chicago, Toronto, Columbus 15 Nashville- growing area, nice map gap between Atlanta and the north 16 Hartford- my wild card. No pro teams in CT, instant rivals with NYRB-NYFC-BOS, even Montreal/Toronto ===== Now, in a crazy case that the Canadian Premier League really takes off (and I can say this since I am part Canadian) I think VAN, TOR & MONT need to join the CPL. They become the big boys of that league. Also with the sometimes financial hardships with the exchange rate between the CDN $ and the US$, should help the CPL with finances. Then the MLS can add yet again, 3 more US based teams. I couldn't even pretend to guess at that point, but it may be a case if more USL teams are doing well, they can move up.
As I've posted elsewhere, I think if the Crew does move to Austin, I think Cinci shoots up the list but San Antonio's chances go down.
Perhaps their proximity shouldn't matter, but I think that it does. Recently I read that Charlotte lawmakers were opposed to the Raleigh stadium deal because they viewed it as competition for the Charlotte bid. And yet both the Hurricanes and Panthers name themselves "Carolina" while representing Raleigh and Charlotte respectively. I think that's a sign that while perhaps the season ticket base may be locally based, teams clearly see utility in drawing support (TV, merchandizing) from the whole of the Carolinas. None of the major leagues have teams represented in both cities.
Who is going to pay MLSE hundreds of millions to have TFC move from MLS to CPL? Who is going to buy out the lease they have for BMO Field or Kia Training Ground? And pay for the guaranteed contracts of the DP's? What is the club going to be called? Toronto is never leaving MLS. It would cost too much then they would go bankrupt. The Leafs will leave the NHL before TFC leaves MLS.